Wow...didn't expect such Intel coloured glasses from you Zebo.
1. The rumour is that Opteron is being released next quarter at 3 GHz
2. The rumour that X-bit Labs posted doesn't say when the Extreme Edition 3.33 GHz will be released, but I am astounded that you really believe it will happen when the rest of the Intel lineup is at a max of 2.67 GHz...
3. You are again assuming that Rev F will be DDR2 only, without knowing anything else.
This is exactly what I was talking about. What about AMD's new strained silicon process? Is it conceivable that the reason we see only Intel hype is because they are the ones that NEED to hype?
I'm not saying that Intel marketing is incorrect, I'm just saying that nobody (not even demens, and he's actually seen Conroe I gather) really knows if what you're spouting as Gospel is actually true...just be patient.
Zebo
Elite Member
- Jul 29, 2001
- 39,398
- 19
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All valid points..especially the part about the whopping 600Mhz difference between thier "top" mainstream chip and the EE. I agree lets be patenit but you can't deny after seeing yonahs thermals, IPC, intel is going to give AMD a run for its money... I just feel the "name brand" and "market presence" of intel will turn the heat up on AMD if they have even close competing chips let alone if intel is superior in AMD's former strong points performance/price (with 65nm makes this possible)/thermals. Will I buy one? Hell no, I support AMD relising they're smaller and need all the help they can get to stave off a bohemoth like intel plus they always offer better bang for the buck. But I sure would'nt invest in them.. take your 40-100% and run.
the oem price for say an intel pentium D 820 is likely about $200 and i think there is a rebate now. you can get them on ebay new for like $170. dell sells them by the ton. it is not as fast as say an x2 3800 obviously. but at 2.8 ghz with dual cores, it is a very good competitor to the athlon 3800+ which is in the same price range.
sure it is not faster and a lot of things. but it is in some. and that is competitive enough and for some people a 2.8 d is a better chip than a 3800+ non x2 (some people such as me).
also you say the server market is their biggest segment but it is not. amd always has and still does lead in the value segment. a large majority of their shipments are things like semprons and lower end AMD chips such as the 3200+.
the server market , by units is very very small (maybe 5% of total units they ship, i dont know the exact numbers but there arent that many servers out there. i believe they sold 12.5 mililon cpus in q4, and 4-500k server chips sounds right).
sure it helps them but the bulk of their sales is semprons and single core athlon 64. now a big issue with that is the die size of a sempron is like 90mm^2 which is small, but will be non competitive with cedar mill based celeron 512k chips at 65nm , again this is for the "i just need a computer that works with integrated video" market, who will care more about price than speed (and it will be close anyway).
also amd has been padding its numbers in server unit sales. i would not doubt that the number of opteron sales to the enthusiast community with the 165,170,175 939 chips release in q4 and sold fo rcheaper than x2 chips did not have a noticeable effect on "server unit volume" . people were buying those chips en masse and it would not be unreasonable to think 20-50k units were sold to enthusiasts.
now that there are leaks of conroe ee being 3.33 ghz with 1333 bus (same as woodcrest) i think a lo tof amd fans will be in for a big surprise. the benchmarks done on even a yonah core duo with 2mb cache on 667 bus show that it will go toe to toe with an x2 and beat it on several fronts, and the conroe is rumored to have a better FPU as well.
a conroe 2.93 with a twice as fast bus, with 4mb of cache (that is what it will have) and 64bit and 95 watt power ceiling (which is the same as that of an athlon 3800) will probably e faster than anything AMD makes. or at least on par with a 3.4 ghz x2 with 2mb cache. but it will be a very small core with 65nm probably be around 140mm^2 even with 4mb unified cache. a x2 with 2mb cache 90nm is much larger slightly over 200mm^2
anyways it will be fun to see how it happens . im looking forward to reading the articles etc.
Originally posted by: Zebo
All valid points..especially the part about the whopping 600Mhz difference between thier "top" mainstream chip and the EE. I agree lets be patenit but you can't deny after seeing yonahs thermals, IPC, intel is going to give AMD a run for its money... I just feel the "name brand" and "market presence" of intel will turn the heat up on AMD if they have even close competing chips let alone if intel is superior in AMD's former strong points performance/price (with 65nm makes this possible)/thermals. Will I buy one? Hell no, I support AMD relising they're smaller and need all the help they can get to stave off a bohemoth like intel plus they always offer better bang for the buck. But I sure would'nt invest in them.. take your 40-100% and run.
you bring up a good point with the name brand and such.
intel marketing is about a billion times better than amd marketing. and most people will fall for that if the cpus are even competitive. intel doesnt even have to make the far and away best cpu. it just has to come close. and they way it is looking the new intel chips probably will be better anyway.
Originally posted by: Zebo
All valid points..especially the part about the whopping 600Mhz difference between thier "top" mainstream chip and the EE. I agree lets be patenit but you can't deny after seeing yonahs thermals, IPC, intel is going to give AMD a run for its money... I just feel the "name brand" and "market presence" of intel will turn the heat up on AMD if they have even close competing chips let alone if intel is superior in AMD's former strong points performance/price (with 65nm makes this possible)/thermals. Will I buy one? Hell no, I support AMD relising they're smaller and need all the help they can get to stave off a bohemoth like intel plus they always offer better bang for the buck. But I sure would'nt invest in them.. take your 40-100% and run.
Fair enough...some points though:
1. Remember that Intel stated that they weren't putting 64bit on Yonah because of power consumption and thermals. Many think that the difference is minimal, but if you think back to the difference between Prescott and Northwood at the same clockspeed, you will realize that this may not be true.
2. Nobody is a bigger admirer of Intel's branding and marketing (though some of their practices leave a bad taste in the mouth) than I am...those guys are brilliant (as are Intel's engineers!). However with the current round of hype, Intel had better deliver in spades...if NGMA isn't significantly superior to AMD's offerings (especially before AMD has delivered it's OWN NGMA), they will become "the boy who cried wolf" very quickly. I don't think just being "as good as an AMD processor" is going to cut it...JMHO
As to investing in AMD, I admit that I sold 60% of my holdings at around $42...a nice tidy 350% profit that is buying me a house!
But if it slips below $38 again, I'll probably buy back a good portion of it. AMD has some excellent momentum and is still undervalued (even at these levels). That said, I have a buy order for Intel at $19.50 as well...
Not assumptions, engineering judgement. First of all, you will not see 65nm products on the market from AMD until next year. Secondly, you look at how much timing margin you've seen on their top end FX or X2's over their product history, hasn't it been tapering off? The process has been use for quite some time, whatever they do from now to 65nm or K10 (whichever comes first) will be speed steps. And you can extrapolate their performance easily.
As for 65nm itself, sorry but there is no such thing now as a huge transistor advantage in this day and age, even if one side has SOI.
yeah but Intel's cheapest also performs much slower. X2 3800+ easily outperforms 930 and even 940 in many cases, and it's cheaper. Most importantly is X2's efficiency.
here you go:
http://www.gamepc.com/labs/print_content.asp?id=pd900&cookie_test=1
here you go:
http://www.gamepc.com/labs/print_content.asp?id=pd900&cookie_test=1
Originally posted by: Viditor
Originally posted by: Zebo
All valid points..especially the part about the whopping 600Mhz difference between thier "top" mainstream chip and the EE. I agree lets be patenit but you can't deny after seeing yonahs thermals, IPC, intel is going to give AMD a run for its money... I just feel the "name brand" and "market presence" of intel will turn the heat up on AMD if they have even close competing chips let alone if intel is superior in AMD's former strong points performance/price (with 65nm makes this possible)/thermals. Will I buy one? Hell no, I support AMD relising they're smaller and need all the help they can get to stave off a bohemoth like intel plus they always offer better bang for the buck. But I sure would'nt invest in them.. take your 40-100% and run.
Fair enough...some points though:
1. Remember that Intel stated that they weren't putting 64bit on Yonah because of power consumption and thermals. Many think that the difference is minimal, but if you think back to the difference between Prescott and Northwood at the same clockspeed, you will realize that this may not be true.
2. Nobody is a bigger admirer of Intel's branding and marketing (though some of their practices leave a bad taste in the mouth) than I am...those guys are brilliant (as are Intel's engineers!). However with the current round of hype, Intel had better deliver in spades...if NGMA isn't significantly superior to AMD's offerings (especially before AMD has delivered it's OWN NGMA), they will become "the boy who cried wolf" very quickly. I don't think just being "as good as an AMD processor" is going to cut it...JMHO
As to investing in AMD, I admit that I sold 60% of my holdings at around $42...a nice tidy 350% profit that is buying me a house!
But if it slips below $38 again, I'll probably buy back a good portion of it. AMD has some excellent momentum and is still undervalued (even at these levels). That said, I have a buy order for Intel at $19.50 as well...
i woudl have sold most of the amd as well.. intel for one is a much more diversified company than amd, especially now that amd spun of spansion.
plus it doesnt look like dell is going to pick up amd (which is basically what took them from low 30s to 42 anyway). yesterday amd got into the 38s again, but is over 40 again today.
i think it is at the point where a lot of people are thinking like you and may be taking their profits as there might not be too many really intersting developments with amd in the coming year.
i personally owned amd at 20 last year, and had to sell around 26 (financial emergency sadly). but i just bought in intel at 20.65 or so the other day. i dont have nearly enough to get a house, but intel will be over 25-26 before the quarter is over i think (it was there about 2 months ago, probably a huge overreaction on the markets part about the earnings and forecasts)
intel's share price split adjusted is about where it was in mid 1997 and that is not inflation adjusted. i think they will easily be back.
also the yonah doesnt have 64bit because they probably could not get it out in time. merom is the mobile conroe, and it is coming out next fall. but the conroe even at 3.33 ghz with 4mb of l2 cache is at a max heat disippation of 95 watts and that is the top end chip and a desktop chip at that.
prescott and northwood is not even a remotely good comparison. prescott was a failed try at 4ghz chips, not really a transition to 64bit. the rumor was the 64bit circuitry was already in all northwoosd as it was. prescott has 10 more stage in its pipeline and m ore or less is a different chip than northwood.
there really arent any directly comparable chips that are 64 vs 32bit. usually the 64bit stuff is just disabled. fromw hat i've read 64bitness is maybe a 5-10% increase in die size, and that should be a very small amount of thermal difference at any given clock rate.
also... even though everyone seems to love amd, if you look at the gamepc.com article the fx60's load poewr consumption is pretty much exactly the same as the pentium D 950 anyway. the 950s dont have the halt state working so there is a worse idle power loss, but once they get that fixed, it wil be very close.
Northwood/Prescott was more than just an official addition of 64bit. It changes the number of pipelines, the amount of L2 cache and the addition of some other things. Rumor is that Northwood had 64bit already on the die, but that is unsubstantiated. However, based on past Pentium-4 models, we know that Willamette had HT, but it was just disabled, so it's not entirely out of the question.
I've stated before that I hardly believe that marketting statement. The die space for x86-64 amounts to 5% of Prescott's total space. Although I offer no evidence, I strongly believe that 64 bit was not included in Yonah because there was a time limitation in the Q&A (although I'm not sure about the claims that Sossaman has 64bit).
While the 45nm process on intels new SOI substrate will be a huge step for them, they are still behind in a lot of other areas.
Time will tell...
Time will tell...
You have a few misconceptions there hans...
1. The runup really had nothing to do with Dell (except for a couple of one day pops), or the price would have dropped back below the announcement level and stayed there. It was the earnings that did it. Going from 17.7% to 21.4% marketshare in only 1 quarter, blowing past estimates by 45% on earnings, guiding for a flat Q1 at the ~$.45 rate (in Dec., estimates for AMD were at $.60-$.80 for all of 06, now they are at $.85-$2.00), and most importantly, seeing that AMD had burned through almost all of it's inventory with very few shortages as well as the calculations on production yields...there were other things from the CC too (announcement on Fab 36/Chartered 300mm shipments and yields, 65nm process is at production ready level, etc...). Most of the analysts commented that they had never seen such a huge momentum shift before, and the poor shnooks at Merrill Lynch took a real pasting from the Financial channels for their downgrade just before earnings...
2. AMD spun off only a portion of Spansion. They still retain 40% of the company (with options to buy back in). This is because when you own less than 50%, you can keep the P/L off the books for earnings...
3. As to Intel's share price, I just don't think charts have anything to do with it (JMO). To me, it all comes down to management...
Both Intel and AMD have equally brilliant engineers, no slouchers in either company. Management for Intel however has been atrocious since Andy Grove left the job. For AMD, Hector Ruiz is a definate heavyweight and has proved himself beyond expectations IMO, Jerry Sanders was tough and a gambler, but he got VERY lucky. At Intel, Grove was the equivalent to Jack Welch of GE (the hardest act to follow possible), but Barrett was absolutely terrible...as of yet, the jury is still out on Ottelini. I don't think I will sink a lot of money into Intel (except as a trading stock) until there's a clear sign of what he's capable of.
4. As to how much 64 bit effects the power of a chip, it isn't just the number of transistors (or percentage of the die), it's their state. The 64 bit extensions are always on, and one of the secrets to Yonah's power success is that it can turn off bits that aren't needed extremely well. With 64 bit, Yonah would be nowhere NEAR as effective (see my previous post from Intel's head of the Mobility Group).
Yeah, beacuse most of us do video encoding on a laptop when its on battery... or play that one level of farcry... oh wait, that wont even install on Intel X86-64 anyway.
Edit: Lets not forget that stellar winrar performance!!! in case we need to rar entire DVDs while on battery as well!!
Maximilian
Lifer
- Feb 8, 2004
- 12,604
- 15
- 81
Foster P4's, otherwise known as XeonDP's (256K cache) had HT. They were Willamette cores. All Northwood's had them as well, as evident with the 3.06 Northwood, which was no different than any of the lower end models from the same family.
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