Why the surge in the stock market lately?

[JEDI]

i got lucky and bought $100k worth of stock on Oct 3, one day b4 the s&p briefly dipped into bear territory. i got it 3% from the 52week low!
should have waited an hr.. oh well.

anyway, since then up 30% in 3weeks
go ME!

 

[randomrogue]

This is the weirdest thread ever. I'd like to guess too.

It's because of the weather. The stock market is heavily influenced by the weather.

 

[Doppel]

Nobody really knows. It's been volatile now for years and goes up and down on a whim or on momentum alone. Also, every time somebody talks about another silly idea that certainly won't work for Europe it bounces up.

 

[JEDI]

i got lucky and bought $100k worth of stock on Oct 3, one day b4 the s&p briefly dipped into bear territory. i got it 3% from the 52week low!
should have waited an hr.. oh well.

anyway, since then up 30% in 3weeks
go ME!

sigh.. bloodbath today. should have sold yesterday.
missed my sell price yesterday by $0.25/share which is only a few hundred $ vs 5 figure profit.
should have just sold at market price at market close.

and tommorow doesnt look good because Europe's debt resolution meeting is in jeporady. Italy isnt supporting a 2yr hike in retirement age since they're probably next in line needing a bailout.

 

[Imp]

sigh.. bloodbath today. should have sold yesterday.
missed my sell price yesterday by $0.25/share which is only a few hundred $ vs 5 figure profit.
should have just sold at market price at market close.

and tommorow doesnt look good because Europe's debt resolution meeting is in jeporady. Italy isnt supporting a 2yr hike in retirement age since they're probably next in line needing a bailout.

Lucky bastard... I got uneasy and bought in at the top of the rally post fall, so at yesterday's peak, I was just about break-even.

Oh well, I added money and pulled some losers out, so have a fairly large sum of money waiting to re-enter if it goes crashy crashy.

 

[glenn1]

sigh.. bloodbath today. should have sold yesterday.

Needs to keep going down, some of my desired picks have been stubbornly resisting getting to my target buy prices.

 

[gevorg]

gaddafi is dead, europe will profit

 

[JEDI]

sigh.. bloodbath today. should have sold yesterday.
missed my sell price yesterday by $0.25/share which is only a few hundred $ vs 5 figure profit.
should have just sold at market price at market close.

and tommorow doesnt look good because Europe's debt resolution meeting is in jeporady. Italy isnt supporting a 2yr hike in retirement age since they're probably next in line needing a bailout.

oh my f'ing lord... up 5% today

good thing i missed my sell price by $0.25 the other day

 

[darkxshade]

I think imma start unloading positions for the eventual drop...

 

[AyashiKaibutsu]

Have to fatten up the pigs before you slaughter them again.

 

[IceBergSLiM]

Have to fatten up the pigs before you slaughter them again.

This is what I was just thinking. Big crash imminent?

 

[Blackjack200]

Best month for the stock market in almost 40 years. If this continues the bankers will be bringing hot cocoa and marzopan to Zuccati park. Anything to keep this rally going.

 

[manly]

This is what I was just thinking. Big crash imminent?

not that likely during earnings season. Still double-digit YoY increases in net profits expected in the U.S. An outright recession now seems unlikely, so the remaining major risk is if Europe's sovereign debt crisis is a zombie that keeps coming back. At a glance, it sounds like Germany and France are able to save themselves.

 

[darkxshade]

not that likely during earnings season. Still double-digit YoY increases in net profits expected in the U.S. An outright recession now seems unlikely, so the remaining major risk is if Europe's sovereign debt crisis is a zombie that keeps coming back. At a glance, it sounds like Germany and France are able to save themselves.

We still got the US Gov who has since been downgraded by S&P unable to agree on a budget to lower its debt. Once the media starts beating that dead horse again at the end of the year, I'm sure the market will react in kind.

 

[manly]

We still got the US Gov who has since been downgraded by S&P unable to agree on a budget to lower its debt. Once the media starts beating that dead horse again at the end of the year, I'm sure the market will react in kind.

hate to go partisan on you, but how could I forget the GOP Congressional caucus gets to hold a gun to everybody's head and threaten default every quarter until the presidential election. But you're right that Congress/S&P likely sparked the August sell-off and that long-term debt is a serious problem.

 

[FoBoT]

it'll be party city thanks to solving kicking the EU debt problems down the road until the end of November when the 'Super Committee' will announce they are deadlocked and cannot come up with a compromise and the auto-chop kicks in
then the market will tank for the holidays

 

[Imp]

Up about 7% today alone on half my portfolio, the other half is cash. Not rushing to put it back in because this just seems like too much too soon.

At some point someone's going to remember that an assload of European banks will default (but they gots the bailout with guberment muney!!!), Europe is likely already in a recession, Greece still can't pay their debt back at 120% GDP (vs. 150% before write down?), Italy and Spain are in the shitter, and China is bullshitting their way to prosperity.

Having said that, looks like we're going to have a few months of rallying? Just like last year: it broke out in November, then come January, kaboom! Sell in May, go away; buy in October?

 

[blinblue]

I always find it highly amusing that every news story about the market is headlined like this "Markets [fell/rose] today due to [random other news headline]"
While I'm sure that current events do have a effect on the market, it's not like its a 1-1 thing. I see it like you'd measure someone's mood. If someone is happy today (ie, markets going up) it might be because of this other good thing that happened, it's sunny today, their favorite team won, whatever. But you can also be sad some days when good things happen, and vice versa, and sometimes it's "just because". Anyway, just find it amusing that journalists always feel the need to figure out a reason for why the market did what it did.

Anyway, just wanted to get that rant out. So in my mind, to answer your question, 50% of it is due to "good news" the other 50% "just because"

 

[JEDI]

it'll be party city thanks to solving kicking the EU debt problems down the road until the end of November when the 'Super Committee' will announce they are deadlocked and cannot come up with a compromise and the auto-chop kicks in
then the market will tank for the holidays

the the market will rise again when congress votes to delay the auto chops till after the 2012 election.

kicking the can down the road has been good for wall street, so why not this too?

 

[Imp]

I always find it highly amusing that every news story about the market is headlined like this "Markets [fell/rose] today due to [random other news headline]"
While I'm sure that current events do have a effect on the market, it's not like its a 1-1 thing. I see it like you'd measure someone's mood. If someone is happy today (ie, markets going up) it might be because of this other good thing that happened, it's sunny today, their favorite team won, whatever. But you can also be sad some days when good things happen, and vice versa, and sometimes it's "just because". Anyway, just find it amusing that journalists always feel the need to figure out a reason for why the market did what it did.

Anyway, just wanted to get that rant out. So in my mind, to answer your question, 50% of it is due to "good news" the other 50% "just because"

Ya, I realized that after reading the daily headlines for the past 6 months during the slow crash. "Markets crash due to worries about Europe", then they rise the next day, down the next because "Investors remember the Europe and Greece"..... They went up and down, chill!

 

[mshan]

Interesting opening monologue on Jim Cramer's Mad Money this evening (should be up on CNBC website in about an hour).

His thesis is shorts got crushed today and can't afford to stay short going forward.

Just wanting return of capital, not return on capital, is now being replaced by relative performance chasing by "money managers" (probably better to call them what they are, asset gatherers who collect plumb management fee, whether or not they make money for their clients) who don't want clients to pull money from them.

He said buy all dips into year end.

May end up being true (catching a falling knife may be being replaced by stepping in front of a freight train)

 

[RbSX]

Yeah, I was short and got crushed for 22% today. Holy shit.

Anyhow, it'll be fine in the long run, the euro plan has largely been built into the indices prices and I expect a bit of a run down over the next month.

Anything after that though is a mystery to me.

 

[mshan]

Watch Cramer's opening monologue on CNBC website in about an hour.

He talked about how he was rigidly fixated on how we would never get out of S & L mess and how he could have gotten steam-rolled if he eventually didn't listen to the message of the markets.

He said Nasdaq was something like 143, Intel had just released this powerful chip at really low price, and how there was no let up until something like Nasdaq 4000 until year 2000.

He is only projecting a similar type of steam rolling into year end, probably when real concerns about Italy and Spain refinancing their debts become legitimate concerns all of main stream media.

He said hedge funds are deleveraged and derisked and lagging broad market indexes badly. Chase for performance may be on until year end, fundamentals and reality be d*mmed.

 

[sandorski]

The Market has been wanting the EU to come up with some sort of plan for awhile now. They finally have, it most likely is inadequate, but at least it's a step in the right direction.

 

[mshan]

"I suspect, or at least hope, that the teaching moment will not be lost on the Germans. They appear to think that compliance with the law is beneficial.

As for the EFSF, we are a long ways from Wall Street and the rest of the bankers getting their hands on this cash.

Part of the reason for my optimism is that the NY Times and the Wall Street Journal have finally begun focusing on the issue of investors not trusting banks.

This is a major, major shift.

Suddenly, investors who are questioning the solvency of US banks are being heard from - all they need to do is focus on derivatives.

More importantly, these investors are asking for granular level data - not assurance from bank executives or regulators.

This movement has implications for how the EU addresses its problems. Merkel intends to do "everything necessary" to ensure banks are recapitalized and investors believe it.

If she follows through, part of everything necessary will be massive disclosure of granular data by the banks.

Yes, this pushes out the timing of when banks are recapitalized (say 3 -5 years). But what is important is it also stops the Wall Street and the bankers from getting their hands on the EFSF funds.

The beauty of disclosure is that investors will be happy to wait knowing that it is coming."

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