I miswored my statement. Biggest potential purchaser of their products. They would be a very inexpensive supplier to the US for many many products, not just cigars. The Cuban government would find a way to capitalize on the proximity.
I'm not saying their form of government is great, but their condition would be far better if we did not have an embargo on them. That is not disputed by anyone.
I don't even think it's that.
Cuba has had two things in its past: (1) Sugar and, (2) tourism.
For perhaps many sorts of reasons I think they can forget sugar. Heck, many products use corn syrup.
As for tourism, I suspect Cuba's biggest problem is lack of investment for casinos and luxury hotels that they once had thus attracting tourism. Any US person who wants to go to Cuba can easily get around our embargo.
But I think Cuba needs investment to again become competitive in the tourism market. Since Castro kicked everybody else out and took over the properties the investment has flowed to all sorts of similar destinations. Just making travel there easier in insufficient IMO. There are so many islands and Mexico that are now heavily in the tourism industry (including gambling that was once a big business in Cuba) waving a law off our books is far short of was is needed.
I don't see how removing our prohibition would induce investor confidence in Cuba. That is squarely on them. And if anybody wants to invest in Cuba, talk to a CPA or lawyer. That's so easy to get around it isn't worth discussing. (E.g., set up company in Caymans - or pick a bizzilion other countries - and invest through it. You're around any US prohibition in a flash.)
Cuba's problems are that of any other island nation: Extremely limited economic options. Most island nations must resort to one of two options: I mentioned tourism already, the other is finance. Both require require investor confidence in the island country. Cuba simply hasn't earned that as far as I can see.
Fern