hong kong seems to be doing fine.... don't see any reasons why taiwan would have to.
I'm going to have to disagree with that statement. The fact is, Hong Kong has NOT been doing fine since the handover. The economy hasn't fully recovered and the rift between the rich and the poor has grown dramatically.
The "Two Systems" component has largely proved a failure. Beijing can reinterpret laws set in HK's constitution when it likes. The HK government routinely bows down to the interests of Bejing. It would even contradict the decisions of its courts just to please Beijing.
Tung Chee Hwa, who is the Chief Executive of HK, does not have a clear and defined agenda. He wavers a lot on his policies and lacks a sense of leadership. Many people would rather see him go, but the right to re-elect him lies with a hand picked body of voters set by Beijing. Hong Kong is not democratic by any means. A majority of the legislature is elected by fuctional constitutiences that represent the the business interests. Only a few seats out of the entire legislature is elected directly by general voters.
At the time of the handover, everyone is saying that HK's freedoms would influence China, but I think the complete opposite is happening. It appears that it's the political system from the Mainland is influencing HK in a largely negative way.