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Why do weather forecasts cover a 7-day span or even more? Don't they know that a forecast beyond 3 days is useless?

Arcadio

Arcadio

Diamond Member
Just in case some of you don't know, trying to predict the weather is very difficult, especially if you want to predict the weather conditions for 3 or more days after today. The problem is that since people watch the forecast almost every day, they don't notice the fact that a long-term weather forecast is basically a guessing game.

I am going to go as far as to say that the TV producers and forecasters know this, and that they basically randomly pick a set of weather conditions for the 4th day on just so that they can satisfy people's need to know the long term forecast. I imagine that if a weather forecast only shows the forecast for the next 3 days, people are not going to tune in.
 
They can't predict exact conditions at exact times that far in advance, but they can predict fronts and have a general idea. I think it's fine, I'd be pissed if they only did a few days because they couldn't be completely accurate.
 
Originally posted by: Arcadio
Just in case some of you don't know, trying to predict the weather is very difficult, especially if you want to predict the weather conditions for 3 or more days after today.

The problem is that since people watch the forecast almost every day, they don't notice the fact that a long-term weather forecast is basically a guessing game.

I am going to go as far as to say that the TV producers and forecasters know this, and that they basically randomly pick a set of weather conditions for the 4th day on just so that they can satisfy people's need to know the long term forecast. I imagine that if a weather forecast only shows the forecast for the next 3 days, people are not going to tune in.
Click to expand...

Not true

There are some factors that change the speed of the jet stream but for the most part it is relatively fixed and predictable.

Perhaps you should take some meteorology courses?
 
Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Perhaps you should take some meteorology courses?
Click to expand...

No need for that. I pay attention to the forecasts and 'alf the time they are inaccurate when it comes to the 6th or 7th day in the forecast.
 
Long term forecasts are certainly based on history and patterns. Like Dave said, we do know a thing or two about the jet stream. Sure, it's not perfect, but ballpark figures are better than nothing if you're trying to plan things.

Anyway...I thought you were gonna go do something with your life.
 
Originally posted by: Gooberlx2


Anyway...I thought you were gonna go do something with your life.
Click to expand...

I am. Discussions about the inaccuracy of weather forecasts are essential to achieving my life goals.
 
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Arcadio
Just in case some of you don't know, trying to predict the weather is very difficult, especially if you want to predict the weather conditions for 3 or more days after today.

The problem is that since people watch the forecast almost every day, they don't notice the fact that a long-term weather forecast is basically a guessing game.

I am going to go as far as to say that the TV producers and forecasters know this, and that they basically randomly pick a set of weather conditions for the 4th day on just so that they can satisfy people's need to know the long term forecast. I imagine that if a weather forecast only shows the forecast for the next 3 days, people are not going to tune in.
Click to expand...

Not true

There are some factors that change the speed of the jet stream but for the most part it is relatively fixed and predictable.

Perhaps you should take some meteorology courses?
Click to expand...

Chaos theory.
 
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Arcadio
Just in case some of you don't know, trying to predict the weather is very difficult, especially if you want to predict the weather conditions for 3 or more days after today.

The problem is that since people watch the forecast almost every day, they don't notice the fact that a long-term weather forecast is basically a guessing game.

I am going to go as far as to say that the TV producers and forecasters know this, and that they basically randomly pick a set of weather conditions for the 4th day on just so that they can satisfy people's need to know the long term forecast. I imagine that if a weather forecast only shows the forecast for the next 3 days, people are not going to tune in.
Click to expand...

Not true

There are some factors that change the speed of the jet stream but for the most part it is relatively fixed and predictable.

Perhaps you should take some meteorology courses?
Click to expand...

There's no need to take meteorology courses. That's the wrong point of inspection to determine accuracy. All that you need to do is compare the actual weather to predicted weather. Several people have done this in limited samples. Google weather prediction accuracy and you'll find some. Here's one with a lot of data behind it that supports to some degree what Arcadio wrote.
 
Originally posted by: sandorski
I like the longterm forecast. It's often way wrong, but it helps plan things.
Click to expand...

If its often wrong (like 80% wrong) then how does it help. Its the opposite really.

Frankly I agree with the OP 100%, the 7 day is simply nonsense and the 10 day that weather.com has is downright rediculous
 
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Arcadio
Just in case some of you don't know, trying to predict the weather is very difficult, especially if you want to predict the weather conditions for 3 or more days after today.

The problem is that since people watch the forecast almost every day, they don't notice the fact that a long-term weather forecast is basically a guessing game.

I am going to go as far as to say that the TV producers and forecasters know this, and that they basically randomly pick a set of weather conditions for the 4th day on just so that they can satisfy people's need to know the long term forecast. I imagine that if a weather forecast only shows the forecast for the next 3 days, people are not going to tune in.
Click to expand...

Not true

There are some factors that change the speed of the jet stream but for the most part it is relatively fixed and predictable.

Perhaps you should take some meteorology courses?
Click to expand...

No I didn't major in meterology courses, but maybe it depends more on where you live. I know for a fact that the weather is practically never right in Denver CO. I look at the 7 and 10 day forcasts all the time just to see how wrong they will be once they actually show up. Even 3 days out is wrong QUITE often around here, and its inevitable that they'll say a huge snowstorm is happening tomorrow at least 2-3 times every winter that turns out to be miniscule if it even shows up at all. And on the opposite side there are always a few storms every winter that it seems nobody even expected.
 
id like an aftercast everyday, the weatherman could catch me up on what happened the previous 7 days with asotunding accuracy.
 
Here in Phoenix they can get away with it and be right 95% of the time, even out to 10-days.

Summer: Sunny, high of 106-112
Winter: Sunny, high of 62-70
Spring and Fall: Sunny, high of 80
 
Originally posted by: AMDZen
Originally posted by: sandorski
I like the longterm forecast. It's often way wrong, but it helps plan things.
Click to expand...

If its often wrong (like 80% wrong) then how does it help. Its the opposite really.

Frankly I agree with the OP 100%, the 7 day is simply nonsense and the 10 day that weather.com has is downright rediculous
Click to expand...

How would you describe the 15-day that accuweather.com has? 😀
 
Originally posted by: AMDZen
Originally posted by: sandorski
I like the longterm forecast. It's often way wrong, but it helps plan things.
Click to expand...

If its often wrong (like 80% wrong) then how does it help. Its the opposite really.

Frankly I agree with the OP 100%, the 7 day is simply nonsense and the 10 day that weather.com has is downright rediculous
Click to expand...

It's not always wrong though and even if it is, as someone else pointed out, it's better to have that than no clue whatsoever when making plans.
 
In general, you're right.

But that's not always the case. Some areas have very predicable weather patterns.

It is in the areas that have very chaotic weather that the models don't do well.
 
This is what I'll do. According to Accuweather, in NYC:

Next Thursday, September 25:
'igh: 70 °F RealFeel®: 67 °F
Mostly sunny

Next Friday, September 26:
'igh: 67 °F RealFeel®: 63 °F
Intervals of clouds and sunshine

Next Saturday, September 27:
'igh: 62 °F RealFeel®: 56 °F
Windy with rain

I'll bump this thread next week to check the accuracy, then I'll post the next week's forecast, rinse and repeat.
 
I thought he was going to be banned if he didn't cut out this 'h' shit.












I mean... Arrrrrrrr mateys!! Them landlubber meter'o'logists know not what they speak.
 
Originally posted by: AMDZen
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Arcadio
Just in case some of you don't know, trying to predict the weather is very difficult, especially if you want to predict the weather conditions for 3 or more days after today.

The problem is that since people watch the forecast almost every day, they don't notice the fact that a long-term weather forecast is basically a guessing game.

I am going to go as far as to say that the TV producers and forecasters know this, and that they basically randomly pick a set of weather conditions for the 4th day on just so that they can satisfy people's need to know the long term forecast. I imagine that if a weather forecast only shows the forecast for the next 3 days, people are not going to tune in.
Click to expand...

Not true

There are some factors that change the speed of the jet stream but for the most part it is relatively fixed and predictable.

Perhaps you should take some meteorology courses?
Click to expand...

No I didn't major in meterology courses, but maybe it depends more on where you live. I know for a fact that the weather is practically never right in Denver CO. I look at the 7 and 10 day forcasts all the time just to see how wrong they will be once they actually show up. Even 3 days out is wrong QUITE often around here, and its inevitable that they'll say a huge snowstorm is happening tomorrow at least 2-3 times every winter that turns out to be miniscule if it even shows up at all. And on the opposite side there are always a few storms every winter that it seems nobody even expected.
Click to expand...

Yeah, there ain't much better than getting up in the morning and having to shovel 6 or more inches of "partly cloudy" out of the driveway...
 
Originally posted by: AMDZen
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Arcadio
Just in case some of you don't know, trying to predict the weather is very difficult, especially if you want to predict the weather conditions for 3 or more days after today.

The problem is that since people watch the forecast almost every day, they don't notice the fact that a long-term weather forecast is basically a guessing game.

I am going to go as far as to say that the TV producers and forecasters know this, and that they basically randomly pick a set of weather conditions for the 4th day on just so that they can satisfy people's need to know the long term forecast. I imagine that if a weather forecast only shows the forecast for the next 3 days, people are not going to tune in.
Click to expand...

Not true

There are some factors that change the speed of the jet stream but for the most part it is relatively fixed and predictable.

Perhaps you should take some meteorology courses?
Click to expand...

No I didn't major in meterology courses, but maybe it depends more on where you live.

I know for a fact that the weather is practically never right in Denver CO.

I look at the 7 and 10 day forcasts all the time just to see how wrong they will be once they actually show up. Even 3 days out is wrong QUITE often around here, and its inevitable that they'll say a huge snowstorm is happening tomorrow at least 2-3 times every winter that turns out to be miniscule if it even shows up at all. And on the opposite side there are always a few storms every winter that it seems nobody even expected.
Click to expand...

I was there in Denver a couple of years ago.

Granted it is not easy to pinpoint the moisture content in any given area once a system comes over the top of the Rockies.

But how many days of the year is this inaccuracy?
 
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Arcadio
Just in case some of you don't know, trying to predict the weather is very difficult, especially if you want to predict the weather conditions for 3 or more days after today.

The problem is that since people watch the forecast almost every day, they don't notice the fact that a long-term weather forecast is basically a guessing game.

I am going to go as far as to say that the TV producers and forecasters know this, and that they basically randomly pick a set of weather conditions for the 4th day on just so that they can satisfy people's need to know the long term forecast. I imagine that if a weather forecast only shows the forecast for the next 3 days, people are not going to tune in.
Click to expand...

Not true

There are some factors that change the speed of the jet stream but for the most part it is relatively fixed and predictable.

Perhaps you should take some meteorology courses?
Click to expand...

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http://forums.anandtech.com/me...ght_key=y&keyword1=fay

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
I don't see it making the extreme left hand turn in Georgia like they are showing.
Click to expand...

ORLY? no left turn?[/quote]

 
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