Why Covid Is Spreading Again This Summer

RossMAN

Grand Nagus
Feb 24, 2000
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If you're reading the article post-penetration (or after 9/3/2025) the first link here should bypass the NYT paywall.
 
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Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
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There was article in New Scientist recently about how Y. pestis (the bubonic plague, black death) has evolved since the middle ages.

My first reaction was, ruuhh? Is this in anyway relevant at this late date? Well, it would seem so.

The point was that Y has become less virulent but it flies under the immune system radar for longer than previously. IOW, you get to be an undiagnosed carrier or vector, longer. That's a good trade off from the Y POV.

Of course, covid is a virus and not a bacterium, but it's a strategy that works for any sort of malefactor.

The article does NOT draw this parallel so it should be interesting to see if Y works in a similar way.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
40,546
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I can't remember the last time I tested myself. If I'm sick, I stay home.
TEST! It would benefit you to know if it's covid or not. It's a very dangerous virus. Even asymptomatic contractors of covid can develop long covid and experts say the chances of that are at least 10% every time you are infected based on data. What is more, every time you catch covid the chances of your developing long covid are greater than the last time. IOW, every time you catch covid you are more vulnerable to long covid than the last time you caught it.

Your odds of developing long covid depend greatly on your behavior once you catch covid. If you don't take care of yourself (in the EXTREME) the odds go up dramatically! Therefore you DO want to know if that thing you've come down with IS covid. Do your homework!!!
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
40,546
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You (and ANYBODY) has a ~10++% chance of developing Long Covid every time a strain of covid develops in your body, whether you are symptomatic or not. This fact is not played up in the media and is suppressed by the powers that be. Do some research on this -- realizing this will help you in protecting yourself and others.

At Mayo Clinic:

Because the virus that causes COVID-19 continues to change, researchers can't say how many people have been affected by long COVID. Some researchers have estimated that 10% to 35% of people who have had COVID-19 went on to have long COVID.


Mayo Clinic Home Page
Long COVID: Lasting effects of COVID-19

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Long COVID: Lasting effects of COVID-19
Some people continue to experience health problems long after having COVID-19. Understand the possible symptoms and risk factors for post-COVID-19 syndrome.
By Mayo Clinic Staff

After any coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) illness, no matter how serious, some people report that symptoms stay for months. This lingering illness has often been called long COVID or post-COVID-19 syndrome. You might hear it called long-haul COVID or post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC).

There is no universal definition of long COVID right now.
In the U.S., some experts have defined long COVID as a long-lasting, called chronic, condition triggered by the virus that causes COVID-19. The medical term for this is an infection-associated chronic condition.
As researchers learn more about long COVID, this definition may change.

What are the most common symptoms of long COVID?​


In research studies, more than 200 symptoms have been linked to long COVID. Symptoms may stay the same over time, get worse, or go away and come back.
Common symptoms of long COVID include:
  • Extreme tiredness, especially after activity.
  • Problems with memory, often called brain fog.
  • A feeling of being lightheaded or dizzy.
  • Problems with taste or smell.

Other symptoms of long COVID include:
  • Sleep problems.
  • Shortness of breath.
  • Cough.
  • Headache.
  • Fast or irregular heartbeat.
  • Digestion problems, such as loose stools, constipation or bloating.
Some people with long COVID may have other illnesses. Diseases caused or made worse by long COVID include migraine, lung disease, autoimmune disease and chronic kidney disease.
Diseases that people may be diagnosed with due to long COVID include:
  • Heart disease.
  • Mood disorders.
  • Anxiety.
  • Stroke or blood clots.
  • Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, also called POTS.
  • Myalgic encephalomyelitis-chronic fatigue syndrome, also called ME-CFS.
  • Mast cell activation syndrome.
  • Fibromyalgia.
  • Diabetes.
  • Hyperlipidemia.
People can get long COVID symptoms after catching the COVID-19 virus even if they never had COVID-19 symptoms. Also, long COVID symptoms can show up weeks or months after a person seems to have recovered.
And while the COVID-19 virus spreads from person to person, long COVID is not contagious and doesn't spread between people.

Why does COVID-19 cause ongoing health problems?​


Current research has found that long COVID is a chronic condition triggered by the virus that causes COVID-19. The medical term for this is an infection-associated chronic condition.
Researchers don't know exactly how COVID-19 causes long-term illness, but they have some ideas. Theories include:

  • The virus that causes COVID-19 upsets immune system communication. This could lead immune cells to mistake the body's own cells as a threat and react to them, called an autoimmune reaction.
  • Having COVID-19 awakens viruses that haven't been cleared out of the body.
  • The coronavirus infection upsets the gut's ecosystem.
  • The virus may be able to survive in the gut and spread from there.
  • The virus affects the cells that line blood vessels.
  • The virus damages communication in the brain stem or a nerve that controls automatic functions in the body, called the vagus nerve.
Because the virus that causes COVID-19 continues to change, researchers can't say how many people have been affected by long COVID. Some researchers have estimated that 10% to 35% of people who have had COVID-19 went on to have long COVID.

What are the risk factors for long COVID?​


Risk factors for long COVID are just starting to be known. In general, most research finds that long COVID is diagnosed more often in females of any age than in males. The long COVID risk also may be higher for people who have cardiovascular disease before getting sick.
Some research also shows that getting a COVID-19 vaccine may help prevent long COVID.

Many other factors may raise or lower your risk of long COVID, but research is still ongoing.

What should I do if I have long COVID symptoms?​


See a healthcare professional if you have long COVID symptoms. Part of long COVID's definition is symptoms that last for three months.
But at this time, no test can say whether you have long COVID. Since you may not have symptoms if you have an infection with the COVID-19 virus, you may not know you had it. Some people have mild symptoms and don't take a COVID-19 test. Others may have had COVID-19 before testing was common.

Long COVID symptoms may come and go or be constant. They also can start any time after you had COVID-19. But symptoms still need to be documented for at least three months in order for a health care professional to diagnose long COVID.
Healthcare professionals may treat your symptoms or conditions before a long COVID-19 diagnosis. And they may work to rule out other conditions over the time you start having symptoms.
Your healthcare team might do lab tests, such as a complete blood count or liver function test. You might have other tests or procedures, such as chest X-rays, based on your symptoms.
The information you give and any test results can help your healthcare professional come up with a treatment plan.

Care for long COVID​


It can be hard to get care for long COVID. Treatment may be delayed while you work with healthcare professionals. And people with long COVID may have their health problems dismissed by others, including healthcare professionals, family members or employers.
For people with cultural or language barriers, getting a long COVID diagnosis can be even harder. Pulling together information about symptoms and timing can be a challenge too. This is especially true when medical history is fragmented or when someone is managing symptoms related to memory or that affect the thought process.

Underdiagnosis may be more common among people who have less access to healthcare or who have limited financial resources.
If you're having long COVID symptoms, talk with your healthcare professional. It can help to have your medical records available before the appointment if you are starting to get care at a new medical office.
To prepare for your appointment, write down:
  • When your symptoms started and if they come and go.
  • What makes your symptoms worse.
  • How your symptoms affect your activities.
  • Questions you have about your illness.
List medicines and anything else you take, including nutrition supplements and pain medicine that you can get without a prescription. Some people find it helpful to bring a trusted person to the appointment to take notes.
Keep visit summaries and your notes in one place. That can help you track what actions you need to take or what you've already tried to treat your symptoms.
Also, you might find it helpful to connect with others in a support group and share resources.

How long can long COVID last?​


The conditions linked as part of long COVID may get better over months or may last for years.

What treatment is available for long COVID?​


Healthcare professionals treat long COVID based on the symptoms. For tiredness, your healthcare professional may suggest that you be active only as long as your symptoms stay stable. If you start to feel worse, rest and don't push through your tiredness.
For symptoms of pain, breathlessness or brain fog, work with your healthcare professional to find a treatment plan that works for you. That may include medicine you can get without a prescription for pain, prescription medicine, supplements and referrals to other healthcare team members.

For loss of taste or smell, a process to retrain the nerves involved in those processes may help some people. The process is called olfactory training. For people with POTS or a fast heartbeat, the healthcare professional may suggest prescription medicine as well as a plan to stay hydrated.
Treatment for other long COVID symptoms may be available so contact your healthcare professional for options.

Next steps for Long COVID​


Long COVID makes life more difficult for many people. To provide better options for care, research is going on to better understand this illness. In the meantime, adults or children with long COVID may be able to get support for daily activities affected by the illness.

Related information​

History of infectious disease outbreaks and vaccines timeline.​

Learn about the history of major disease outbreaks, epidemics and pandemics, as well as the impact vaccines and research had on many infectious diseases.
Find out more at History of infectious disease outbreaks and vaccines timeline.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
6,307
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You (and ANYBODY) has a ~10++% chance of developing Long Covid every time a strain of covid develops in your body, whether you are symptomatic or not. This fact is not played up in the media and is suppressed by the powers that be. Do some research on this -- realizing this will help you in protecting yourself and others.

The Mayoclinic article you linked makes no mention of a 10% chance.

Risk factors for long COVID are just starting to be known. In general, most research finds that long COVID is diagnosed more often in females of any age than in males. The long COVID risk also may be higher for people who have cardiovascular disease before getting sick.
https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-vaccines-reduce-long-covid-risk-new-study-shows


This article says 3.5% chance among vaccinated people who got the primary series. Was originally at 10% with no vaccine at the pandemic onset.

At the pandemic’s onset, approximately 10% of people who suffered COVID-19 infections went on to develop Long COVID. Now, the risk of getting Long COVID has dropped to about 3.5% among vaccinated people (primary series).

The researchers found that the rate of new Long COVID cases declined with each variant, and that the numbers of cases were significantly lower in the vaccinated cohorts.
Then, the team conducted analyses to uncover the reasons for the observed decline in Long COVID cases from the pre-Delta to Omicron eras. About 70% of the decline was attributable to vaccination, they found. There are several reasons to explain why vaccines may prevent Long COVID, says Dr. Al-Aly. First, vaccines reduce the risk of severe acute infections, which are linked to a greater risk of Long COVID. Vaccines also help the body’s immune system to eliminate the virus more quickly, reducing the likelihood that lingering viral particles are left behind. Viral persistence is one of researchers’ multiple hypotheses for the drivers of Long COVID. “That really means that maintaining vaccination uptake is likely to be an important driver to keep the lid on Long COVID,” Dr. Al-Aly says.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
40,546
10,014
136
The Mayoclinic article you linked makes no mention of a 10% chance.
Right near the top of my post is a quote from the article, which is near to its top, clearly saying the some experts estimated from 10-35% of covid sufferers went on to develop Long Covid. Here it is again:

Because the virus that causes COVID-19 continues to change, researchers can't say how many people have been affected by long COVID. Some researchers have estimated that 10% to 35% of people who have had COVID-19 went on to have long COVID.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
6,307
2,513
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Right near the top of my post is a quote from the article, which is near to its top, clearly saying the some experts estimated from 10-35% of covid sufferers went on to develop Long Covid. Here it is again:

So the 10-35% is just a estimate?

The YaleMedicine article list 3.5% among vaccinated people for developing long COVID. However the 10% figure is from very early in the pandemic. They are also saying that COVID-19 Vaccinations played a key role in the drop of long COVID cases. Which makes sense. While the risk of Long COVID is still substantial, the chance of developing Long COVID has dropped considerably and isn't 10%.

https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-vaccines-reduce-long-covid-risk-new-study-shows

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2403211 (Full Journal Article)
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
40,546
10,014
136
So the 10-35% is just a estimate?

The YaleMedicine article list 3.5% among vaccinated people for developing long COVID. However the 10% figure is from very early in the pandemic. They are also saying that COVID-19 Vaccinations played a key role in the drop of long COVID cases. Which makes sense. While the risk of Long COVID is still substantial, the chance of developing Long COVID has dropped considerably and isn't 10%.

https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-vaccines-reduce-long-covid-risk-new-study-shows

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2403211 (Full Journal Article)
Actually word is that the chances of getting long covid go up considerably as the number of times you get it go up. I think I saw info that 10% of the populace who had covid has long covid going on.

Household Pulse Survey (HPS): In an April 2024 analysis of HPS data, roughly 10% of U.S. adults who previously had COVID-19 reported currently having long COVID.
AI Overview


Studies suggest that the number of people experiencing long COVID fluctuates and varies depending on the population, though the 10% figure is a plausible estimate for some groups
. Prevalence has declined since the start of the pandemic due to vaccination and milder variants like Omicron, but the impact remains significant. However, it's difficult to track the overall number of cases because of inconsistent definitions, varied tracking methods, and challenges in diagnosis.

Long COVID prevalence estimates
The percentage of the population that has experienced long COVID differs widely among various studies and surveys:
  • Globally: A January 2025 meta-analysis estimated that globally, 36% of individuals with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis developed long COVID. However, the World Health Organization (WHO) currently estimates that approximately 6% of people who have COVID-19 develop long COVID.
  • In the U.S.:
    • Household Pulse Survey (HPS): In an April 2024 analysis of HPS data, roughly 10% of U.S. adults who previously had COVID-19 reported currently having long COVID.
    • National Health Interview Survey (NHIS): The CDC's analysis of the 2022 NHIS found that 6.9% of all U.S. adults reported ever having had long COVID, while 3.4% had it at the time of the interview.
Factors complicating long COVID statistics
Several factors make it difficult to track and interpret long COVID statistics:
  • Inconsistent case definitions: A universal definition for diagnosing and researching long COVID (also known as Post-COVID Conditions, or PCC) does not exist. Different studies use various criteria for symptom duration and type, resulting in a wide range of estimates.
  • Evolving virus and immunity: Long COVID rates have changed as new SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged and global vaccination rates have increased. Studies show that vaccination significantly reduces the risk of long COVID. The Omicron variant was associated with a lower risk compared to earlier strains.
  • Overlap with other conditions: Many long COVID symptoms, such as fatigue and brain fog, are non-specific and overlap with other post-viral illnesses like myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). This complicates diagnosis and epidemiological tracking.
  • Diagnostic challenges: There is no single diagnostic test for long COVID. It can be difficult to distinguish long-term effects caused by the virus from symptoms that might have occurred anyway. Many studies rely on self-reported data, which can introduce bias.
  • Heterogeneous symptoms: More than 200 symptoms have been linked to long COVID. Patients can experience vastly different combinations. Some have mild, temporary effects, while others face severely debilitating and long-lasting health problems.
Conclusion
While a figure like 10% may represent a valid estimate for certain populations or at specific points in the pandemic, it is not a universal truth. The overall burden of long COVID is immense, but its true prevalence is difficult to determine definitively due to the varied and inconsistent data available. The impact is ongoing and significant, even if the current incidence rate for new infections is lower than during the pandemic's early stages.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
6,307
2,513
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Actually word is that the chances of getting long covid go up considerably as the number of times you get it go up. I think I saw info that 10% of the populace who had covid has long covid going on.



Conclusion
While a figure like 10% may represent a valid estimate for certain populations or at specific points in the pandemic, it is not a universal truth. The overall burden of long COVID is immense, but its true prevalence is difficult to determine definitively due to the varied and inconsistent data available. The impact is ongoing and significant, even if the current incidence rate for new infections is lower than during the pandemic's early stages.

The problem I have is with self reporting long COVID. We don't even have a consistent definition of COVID.

Having researchers look through medical records is more valid.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2403211

Realistically COVID-19 is another circulating coronavirus. The best defense is vaccination coupled with having a healthy immune system.
 

esquared

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 8, 2000
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FWIW, the FDA has approved the new COVID vaccines, and have narrowed who can get it.

 

SteveGrabowski

Diamond Member
Oct 20, 2014
8,796
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FWIW, the FDA has approved the new COVID vaccines, and have narrowed who can get it.

Now you're gonna have to get a prescription from a doctor to get a COVID vaccine if you're not 65+ thanks to our shitbag fuhrer. No more just walking into the pharmacy to get one.
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
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Now you're gonna have to get a prescription from a doctor to get a COVID vaccine if you're not 65+ thanks to our shitbag fuhrer. No more just walking into the pharmacy to get one.
I read a bit and wonder if the Novavax is the best. Don't know if my HMO will have it, though. My last shot was Dec. 2024 and they didn't have Moderna (my previous shots were all Moderna), so I got Pfizer. I doubt they had Novavax, I didn't ask, not having heard of it then.