sciencewhiz
Diamond Member
- Jun 30, 2000
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Statistically, Bill James created a formula for the expected win percentage of a team based on the number of runs scored and runs allowed which he called the Pythagorean theorum (simialar but not to be confused with the geometry forumula). He also made a statistic called Runs Created which is how many runs a batter adds to his team, and can be extrapolated to Runs Created for 27 outs (if that player was the only batter on the team).
Right now, Barry Bonds is the leader in RC27 at 10.4 runs/game, and Chris Young is the leader in ERA at 1.82. If you plug those numbers into the Pythagorean theorem, a team with only Barry Bonds and Chris Young would win 95% of their games. Conversely, the worst everyday players are Jason Kendal and Jose Contreras. A team with just those players would win 15% of their games.
After playing with the numbers a little, I found that a team with the 30th best batter and 20th best pitcher would win 80% of their games. The reason that no team wins 80% of their games in baseball is that no team has 9 of the top 30 batters (as much as the Yankees try) and 5 of the top 20 pitchers.
Edit: the hypothetical .800 winning percentage team has a run differential of 3.79 per game. The Red Sox are the best team in baseball with a .613 win percentage (which is really close to their .617 expected win percentage) and their run differential is only 1.2 runs per game.
If you pair the Yankee's batters with the Padre's pitchers, you still only end up with a .694 expected winning percentage.
Right now, Barry Bonds is the leader in RC27 at 10.4 runs/game, and Chris Young is the leader in ERA at 1.82. If you plug those numbers into the Pythagorean theorem, a team with only Barry Bonds and Chris Young would win 95% of their games. Conversely, the worst everyday players are Jason Kendal and Jose Contreras. A team with just those players would win 15% of their games.
After playing with the numbers a little, I found that a team with the 30th best batter and 20th best pitcher would win 80% of their games. The reason that no team wins 80% of their games in baseball is that no team has 9 of the top 30 batters (as much as the Yankees try) and 5 of the top 20 pitchers.
Edit: the hypothetical .800 winning percentage team has a run differential of 3.79 per game. The Red Sox are the best team in baseball with a .613 win percentage (which is really close to their .617 expected win percentage) and their run differential is only 1.2 runs per game.
If you pair the Yankee's batters with the Padre's pitchers, you still only end up with a .694 expected winning percentage.