Why Biden is pulling the US -- and NATO -- out of Afghanistan

[sandorski]

The estimates for collapse ranged from a month to 6 months. The majority of the generals were opposed to withdrawing is my understanding both when trump wanted to do it and when biden continued it. Biden took the best case scenario of 6 months and ran with it when you should generally prepare for the worst case scenario. We're lucky the collapse has been peaceful and not violent with executions en mass in the streets. The criticisms by retired generals and servicemen is very very harsh right now and I have to say I agree. You can say well the government was going to collapse in 6 months but there is no indication that in 6 months the US would have gotten all the people it needed to get out actually out either. The SIV program alone was massively backlogged. There just is no credible evidence that in 6 months things would have looked better from a withdrawal standpoint in terms of getting people out. The US was that unprepared and decided to bulldoze ahead anyway.

There was no Preparing for this. There was Preparation for Afghanistan collapsing a Month after leaving. The disaster was how the Afghan Military just capitulated.

 

[woolfe9998]

Depends a lot on what question they're being asked. 'Can we train the Afghan army' gets a big 'ol yes. US military can train the shit out of some humans. 'Will the Afghan army, realistically, ever stand on its own against an aggressor, foreign or domestic?' Probably a big fucking nope. But if you keep paying them, they'll keep trying.

The US military is a weapon, and can answer the questions asked of a weapon. They aren't a tool for generating responses someone wants.

I think it's worse than that. They actively misrepresented their progress.

 

[fskimospy]

Most intel agencies that have spoken out about this so far have publicly stated that they were all a bit taken aback at how fast this went.

Having said that, there also seems to be some misconception that the US got caught with its pants down. That's pretty untrue, given that we had already spooled down all operations, all bases, and all assets in the country by that point. Sucks to be our foreign allies, but then it always sucks to be a foreign ally of the US.

I don't really think it sucked to be a foreign ally of the US in this situation - it sucked to be the US. We gave their ruling coalition -twenty years- to get their act together and as far as I can tell they used that time to steal as much of our money as they could.

 

[m8d]

I was just noting that this whole thing started in 2003.

You went into Afghanistan to root out AQ and the Taliban and didn't finish the job, in fact the US ensured that it COULDN'T be finished by anyone through NATO either. I'd say Halliburton making billions on taking over "security" had a bit to do with that.

Iraq either happened because the Taliban were soon gone and AQ were surrounded (I do mean literally surrounded, the Taliban at this point tried to surrender but were rejected by the US) and the US didn't want it to be over or because someone really, really had it in for Hussein.

War is a racket and America falls for the same lie every time that the military is fighting for your freedoms.

 

[fskimospy]

I think it's worse than that. They actively misrepresented their progress.

Yes, if you look at the public statements from the Pentagon over the last 15 years at least there is no reasonable conclusion you can make other than our generals were either woefully incompetent or actively deceiving the public. I am very confident the answer is #2.

Some people have pointed out how a culture of lying to the public seems to be engrained in the natsec community where deceiving the people is just part of the job in order to accomplish virtuous things. The fact that these things so rarely turn out to be virtuous doesn't seem to factor in.

 

[hal2kilo]

I don't really think it sucked to be a foreign ally of the US in this situation - it sucked to be the US. We gave their ruling coalition -twenty years- to get their act together and as far as I can tell they used that time to steal as much of our money as they could.

I was going to respond, so you think being allied with either Russia or China would be a better deal?

 

[woolfe9998]

Yes, if you look at the public statements from the Pentagon over the last 15 years at least there is no reasonable conclusion you can make other than our generals were either woefully incompetent or actively deceiving the public. I am very confident the answer is #2.

Some people have pointed out how a culture of lying to the public seems to be engrained in the natsec community where deceiving the people is just part of the job in order to accomplish virtuous things. The fact that these things so rarely turn out to be virtuous doesn't seem to factor in.

I recall when Obama first came into office, 2009, there was a leaked Pentagon report requesting a surge to 135,000 troops. Obama was politically pressured, particularly by the GOP, to give the military everything it requested. That report made all sorts of rosy predictions as to what would happen if POTUS authorized the requested surge. They got their surge. None of it happened. It was all BS.

 

[ivwshane]

I don't think there was a good exit strategy for this. Every plan lead to a disaster. What we are really doing is sitting around being a armchair general and saying that we predict that you would have preferred a different disaster. But we literally don't know what that other disaster would have been.

True and what those who are complaining are doing is basically repeating the rights talking points.

Apparently because someone has experience in Afghanistan they know more than the civil and military leadership. Which begs the question, if you know more than those who are directing you then how could there have been a better outcome when such incompetence is involved?

Biden’s priority was the American people, more specifically, it was to keep American soldiers safe. Trump negotiated a withdrawal and the taliban kept their word and Biden got our people out with the least amount of casualties. Don’t start complaining now about human tragedy after twenty years of your silence on the issue. Not a single person cared enough to bring up the Afghan people in a single thread other than to say they aren’t worth our time so it’s a little disingenuous to bring that up now.

 

[ondma]

As I predicted here come the leaks and the finger pointing, haha.

Biden administration embroiled in internal blame-shifting amid Afghanistan chaos

Factions within the Biden administration are embroiled in a blame game over why the US government didn't act sooner to withdraw American citizens and Afghans who helped the US over two decades of war, leading to a rushed and dangerous evacuation.

www.cnn.com

You'll notice everyone is saying they said this outcome was a 'possibility', but that's a meaningless term. What really matters is what they briefed as the most probable outcomes.

I would argue that in a situation as volatile as this, with the background of what happened in Vietnam, we should have assumed or at least been prepared for the worst possible outcome (which is what we got).

 

[Ajay]

Better sources-----
Afghan - Wikipedia
Afghan | Definition of Afghan by Merriam-Webster

From Merriam-Webster:
History and Etymology for afghani
borrowed from Persian afghānī, literally, "of the Pashtuns"

So, I will concede that it is both. Thank you for citing sources.

 

[fskimospy]

I would argue that in a situation as volatile as this, with the background of what happened in Vietnam, we should have assumed or at least been prepared for the worst possible outcome (which is what we got). Especially egregious is that we now are send in a relatively large number of troops to attempt to at least bring some order to the chaos. So we might as well have sent them in BEFORE

But doesn't assuming the worst case scenario in this situation bring it about almost by definition?

If reports are accurate and the realization that the US was leaving is what caused the collapse, then exactly the preparations you're talking about would have also caused a collapse, leaving us in an identical situation. Then of course everyone would be blaming Biden for causing the Afghan government to collapse.

I'm sure there are things that could be done better here but this does feel like a no-win scenario to me in an overall sense.

 

[HomerJS]

Taliban had a presser today. Can't wait to read the rest of this later. An excerpt, this has a much chance of being true as anything Trump claimed

"We have pardoned all those who have fought against us. Animosities have come to an end," he said. "We do not want to have any problems with the international community."

 

[dank69]

Taliban had a presser today. Can't wait to read the rest of this later. An excerpt, this has a much chance of being true as anything Trump claimed

Saw this, too:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/calm-flights-return-taliban-held-064112148.html

 

[NWRMidnight]

You do know how intelligence agencies work, right?

Yep! Your point? Are you imply that it's impossible for back room deals to be made without the US knowing? If so, you have an unrealistic view of reality.

 

[woolfe9998]

Republicans are already dropping hints they are pro Taliban. Once again Republicans showing their distain for people of color.

Tucker Carlson condemned for comments on Afghan refugees (yahoo.com)
Rep. Lauren Boebert Is Torched For Tweeting That Taliban Are 'Building Back Better' - WorldNewsEra

Fucker's at it again. Biden at fault for leaving Afghan allies behind, but Afghan allies are a Muslim horde which will overrun your neighborhoods and force you to live under Sharia law.

 

[hal2kilo]

Fucker's at it again. Biden at fault for leaving Afghan allies behind, but Afghan allies are a Muslim horde which will overrun your neighborhoods and force you to live under Sharia law.

Yep, something that seemed to be completely unsaid regarding why we couldn't get the Afghans that helped the Americans here sooner, has probably got something to do with Trump's immigration edicts left over from his admin. Just a guess.

 

[ondma]

Yep! Your point? Are you imply that it's impossible for back room deals to be made without the US knowing? If so, you have an unrealistic view of reality.

Seriously??? Did you ever hear of "intelligence" agencies having informants? A lot of these payoffs were probably even being made with money provided by the Americans. Are the intelligence agencies to stupid to investigate where the money is actually going?

 

[Amol S.]

Still trolling. You still haven't explained to us what your comprehensive plan would have been. Include what you would have done with the US troops there, what you would do with all those that helped us (Afghanis) and what you would do with all those woman and people clamoring to leave. Also add a timeline how would you have implemented this given Trump negotiated a cease fire until May 1 and pulled out all but 2500 troops. Give us a plan.

All though I am not someones, my plan would have been the following...

Jan 31: Tell the president of Afghanistan to lay off all high ranking men in the army, and replace them with women.

February 29: Ask the president of Afghanistan to hire 50,000 women to fight at the front line against terrorism.

March 30: Start the training of the women soldiers on how to fight against terrorism.

April 30: Suggest to the president of Afghanistan to support female politicians in local office elections.

May 1: Start withdrawal.

July : Complete withdrawal.

 

[blackangst1]

At least the Biden administration is negotiating deals with Taliban leaders. Something mocked previously.

Pentagon: US, Taliban coordinate as Kabul evacuation speeds (msn.com)[AP]

The U.S. military is coordinating with the Taliban while accelerating the airlift of Americans and Afghan allies from the Kabul airport, and also bringing in additional U.S. troops in a scramble to complete the evacuation in two weeks, Pentagon officials said Tuesday.

Kirby, said U.S. commanders at the airport are in direct communication with Taliban commanders outside the airport to avoid security incidents. He indicated this communication was in line with an arrangement made on Sunday by the head of U.S. Central Command, Gen. Frank McKenzie, when he met with Taliban leaders in Qatar and won agreement to “deconflict” forces and allow a safe U.S. evacuation.

 

[NWRMidnight]

Seriously??? Did you ever hear of "intelligence" agencies having informants? A lot of these payoffs were probably even being made with money provided by the Americans. Are the intelligence agencies to stupid to investigate where the money is actually going?

You obviously are confusing the movies you watch with reality. You seem to think that the US has informants everywhere, who know everything.. you are an idiot if you believe this. If it was true, we would be able to end everything, and respond accurately to everything, foreign and domestic, every single time. We would have won the war on drugs decades ago if such reality existed. 9/11 would have never taken place because we would have been able to prevent it because of you know, intel and your imaginary fully knowledgeable informants. We wouldn't have cybersecurity problems like ransomware etc. The list goes on and on, and non of these things would have happened if your reality existed. So, pull your head out of your ass.

 

[ivwshane]

At least the Biden administration is negotiating deals with Taliban leaders. Something mocked previously.

Pentagon: US, Taliban coordinate as Kabul evacuation speeds (msn.com)[AP]

Can you figure out why the two situations are different and why one would be mocked and not the other?

 

[Amol S.]

I'm beginning to think the Afghan government/military staged and/or planned this entire takeover. I still can't believe the Taliban rolled an entire country and not a shot was fired.

It would have been easy for the Afghans to fire at the Taliban from the air.

We discused this before in the thread, the Afghan military is mostly men, and men mostly have nothing to loose in a taliban rule. It's the women that have a lot to loose in a taliban rule.

 

[VRAMdemon]

We tried to craft a certain type of country when we setup Afghanistan’s national government, that is a government intended to function as a plural democracy. For that to function, you need a significant portion of the population who are not Pashtun first who are not Tajik first, but who are Afghan first. Think of the troubles the USA had until we firmly transitioned to a country where most people think of themselves as “Americans.” If you do not have a shared national identity, and your population does not value having a shared national state, it's almost impossible to do what we wanted to do.

Say you’re a Tajik that has joined the Afghan National Army. Your commander is a Pashtun. You do not like Pashtuns, do not want to take orders from them. You are stationed in a Pashtun area of Afghanistan. One day you hear the Taliban is coming. What do you do? You leave your post. You were just sticking with the job for the pay check. You, a Tajik, are not going to take orders from a Pashtun CO to fight a Pashtun military force in Pashtun territory. Now, serving some Tajik warlord in Tajik territory? You might fight to the death against the Taliban coming into your territory.

For the first time in twenty years we have a President who did what he told us he would do in Afghanistan. Was it perfect, No, but Bush, Obama and Trump all indicated we were not in Afghanistan forever, but none COMPLETELY ended our military deployment there. Biden said he would, and he did what he said. The people voted him in and he did it. It is naive to think a place as backward as Afghanistan was going to be a happy and wonderful place after we left. But we’re going to reap the benefits of Biden’s smart move in the years to come. Not just the $45bn/yr we won’t be spending in Afghanistan, which by the way is more than all but 8 countries even spend on their entire military, but the tied up air resources, the strategic focus it’s taken from CENTCOM all these years etc etc. It was time to fucking leave.

 

[blackangst1]

Can you figure out why the two situations are different and why one would be mocked and not the other?

Yes. One is Trump one isnt. It appears this time negotiations worked?

 

[ondma]

You obviously are confusing the movies you watch with reality. You seem to think that the US has informants everywhere, who know everything.. you are an idiot if you believe this. If it was true, we would be able to respond to everything, foreign and domestic, perfectly.. Hell, we would have won the war on drugs decades ago if such reality existed. 9/11 would have never take place because we would have been able to prevent it because of you know, intel. The list would be a mile long if your reality existed. So, pull your head out of your ass.

Of course, you are ignoring the many drug busts and terrorism plots that *have* been cracked by informants. Nothing of course is perfect, but if you wish to believe that bribery and corruption on a scale that would lead to the collapse of an entire government could be hidden for 20 years, well you are entitled to your opinion, but I strongly disagree.