Who wins in November?

[rain2k4]

Please refrain from saying candidate X will win because of FOO(theres plenty of other threads for that). Who do you think wins and what percentage of the popular vote. Also, to see how party lines affect this, please list your affililation if you dont mind.

Affiliation: Democrat
Winner: Kerry
Percentage: 53%

EDIT - oh and please dont thread crap by saying that guessing this early is pretty pointless(which is true, but whatever)

 

[Arsynic]

Affiliation: Non-voter
Winner: Bush
Percentage: 56%

 

[Freejack2]

Affiliation: Whoever is best for this country which is not bush, however he'll win anyhow.
Winner: Bush
Percentage: 50.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001

You get the idea...

 

[BDawg]

Affiliation: Republican
Winner: Kerry
Percentage: 54%

Loser: Bush
Percentage: 42%

 

[bozack]

Affiliation: Republican
Winner: Bush
Percentage: 54%

Loser: Kerry
Percentage: 36%

Loser: Nader
Percentage: 10%

 

[HeroOfPellinor]

Originally posted by: BDawg
Affiliation: Republican

Riiiiiiight

 

[conjur]

Affiliation: Republican

Kerry: 57%
Bush: 40%

 

[DanJ]

Affiliation: Democrat

Kerry: 51%
Bush: 48%
Nader 1%

 

[HeroOfPellinor]

Affiliation: Democrat

Bush: 49
Kerry: 48

 

[Red Dawn]

Affiliation: Independamt
Winner: No one
Loser: America

 

[Vic]

Affiliation: Libertarian

I'm not about to guess percentages, simply that Kerry will win by a close margin, winning all the west coast states, CA, New England, NY, PA, eastern seaboard, VA, NC, FL, and Midwest, IL, IN, OH, MI, MN, WI. Bush will get most of the South, TX, and the mountain states, but it won't be enough. In the end, the issue will be that, for most people, the GW years will be 4 hard years they will want to forget.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: HeroOfPellinor
Affiliation: Democrat

Bush: 49
Kerry: 48

:roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :disgust: :frown:

 

[catnap1972]

Affiliation: Independant
Winner: Kerry
Percentage: somewhere between 50 and 55%

 

[naddicott]

Affiliation: Green
Kerry 46%
Bush 43%
Electoral college - no clue.

 

[coremortality]

Affiliation: Libertarian
Winner: Bush

Margins:
Bush 49%
Kerry 48%
Nader 2%
Misc 1%

 

[biostud]

Affiliation: Foriegn
Winner: Kerry
Percentage: 51%

 

[BDawg]

Originally posted by: HeroOfPellinor

Originally posted by: BDawg
Affiliation: Republican

Riiiiiiight

It's true. In the early, mid 90's, I was a hardcore Republican.

The party takeover by the ultra right-winger christian conservatives moved the party away from me. I've always been socially liberal.

 

[GoPackGo]

Affiliation: Republican
Winner: Bush
Percentage: 75%

 

[Tighr]

Affiliation: Libertarian

Winner: Bush ~52%
Kerry ~41%
Nader ~7%

Yes, I think Nader will snag that much, because this is going to be a huge "not bush, neither kerry" type election, just like 1992 was when Perot took in an amazing percentage.

Vic, I think your guesstimates of the states Kerry will win is a little off.. close though. I doubt he'd take Indiana (thats definitely going to Bush) and a few of the midwest states might swing his way, too. A lot of states are going to be tight, too, and the electoral votes will probably in no way reflect popular vote. Margins of 55/45 in each state can give one candidate a lot of electorals while not giving the other candidate as many.



Yeah, this is my first post here, but hey I've got high post counts on other forums so don't hold it against me!

 

[BDawg]

Originally posted by: GoPackGo
Affiliation: Republican
Winner: Bush
Percentage: 75%

LOLROTHLMAO!!!!!

 

[HeroOfPellinor]

Originally posted by: BDawg

Originally posted by: HeroOfPellinor

Originally posted by: BDawg
Affiliation: Republican

Riiiiiiight

It's true. In the early, mid 90's, I was a hardcore Republican.

The party takeover by the ultra right-winger christian conservatives moved the party away from me. I've always been socially liberal.

Okay, but were Republicans socially liberal back then? Are you just fiscally conservative? And, if so, would the current administrations very conservative econmic reforms be to your liking?

 

[BDawg]

Originally posted by: HeroOfPellinor

Originally posted by: BDawg

Originally posted by: HeroOfPellinor

Originally posted by: BDawg
Affiliation: Republican

Riiiiiiight

It's true. In the early, mid 90's, I was a hardcore Republican.

The party takeover by the ultra right-winger christian conservatives moved the party away from me. I've always been socially liberal.

Okay, but were Republicans socially liberal back then? Are you just fiscally conservative? And, if so, would the current administrations very conservative econmic reforms be to your liking?

They didn't seem to be as controlled by the christian right at the time. Though, I wasn't ever a fan of Meese's anti-porn speeches in front of the justice dept.

Yes, I am fiscally conservative. I just don't buy the idea that tax cuts are appropriate in time of deficit. I don't think taxes are too high now, but I would favor lower taxes if we could cut unnecesary spending. All Bush's tax cuts have done is put a larger burden on state and local governments' funding.

I will more often than not vote on social policy than fiscal policy.

 

[thebenjamins]

Affiliation: Centre-right Eurotrash
Kerry wins 52-53
Bush 46-47

 

[piasabird]

Kerry will have a hard time making any appointments for his people after what the Democrats have done to Bush in the Last 4 Years.

 

[bozack]

Originally posted by: conjur
Affiliation: Republican

oh my god, monkeys are flying out of my ace....

conjur, don't you think it is time you made your switch official and just file for democrat already?