who wants a united democratic korea?

kreactor

Senior member
Jan 3, 2005
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not china
-loss of buffer from u.s. military base
-less poor north koreans willing to sell their daughters to the less poor chinese farmers
(20million+ surplus chinese men due to 1 child policy)

not south korea
-massive welfare program to subsidized n koreans
-social integration of brainwashed n koreans

not the us
-koreans might want the military out like the japanese now
 

nageov3t

Lifer
Feb 18, 2004
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China would much rather a united Korea than an independent North Korea with an open boarders policy with China... I've never heard of China encouraging female North Korean immigrants; they certainly don't want to have to deal with a wave of refugees.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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Korea is not reuniting any time soon. I imagine the only way that the South will reunite with the North is when circumstances force their hand either through a revolution or some sort of collapse in the North.

The North would be a gigantic welfare case for at least a generation, not to mention the stark ideological and cultural differences that have arisen over the last 60 years. I mean in a true reunification each side would have a say over internal and foreign policy. Can you imagine the South allowing that to happen, considering the huge GDP disparity? Can you imagine the North just signing on to be a vassal territory of the South without some extremely strong motivator?
 

nageov3t

Lifer
Feb 18, 2004
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Korea is not reuniting any time soon. I imagine the only way that the South will reunite with the North is when circumstances force their hand either through a revolution or some sort of collapse in the North.

The North would be a gigantic welfare case for at least a generation, not to mention the stark ideological and cultural differences that have arisen over the last 60 years. I mean in a true reunification each side would have a say over internal and foreign policy. Can you imagine the South allowing that to happen, considering the huge GDP disparity? Can you imagine the North just signing on to be a vassal territory of the South without some extremely strong motivator?
I don't know how responsive the South Korean government is to what its citizens want, but an overwhelming majority of South Koreans favor unification, despite the financial implications.

http://blogs.wsj.com/korearealtime/2011/01/07/kbs-poll-sentiment-shifting-on-unification/

though obviously it would first require a total collapse of the current North Korean power structure.
 

Tom

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
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A reunited Korea would be much more powerful economically, just like a reunited Germany.

There's no economic downside for S Korea.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
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If the North Korean government was to collapse you would probably see reunification.

The South would probably take over similar to East & West Germany.

It would probably only take a decade for the north to catch up to the south in many ways. There would be a huge stream of money into the north building factories and such.

The world would be a better place too.
 

Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
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Oct 9, 1999
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A reunited Korea would be much more powerful economically, just like a reunited Germany.

There's no economic downside for S Korea.

Perhaps eventually, but most certainly not in the near term, and possibly not for a generation or more.

Immediately, it would be an economic disaster for South Korea.
 

IndyColtsFan

Lifer
Sep 22, 2007
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Korea is not reuniting any time soon. I imagine the only way that the South will reunite with the North is when circumstances force their hand either through a revolution or some sort of collapse in the North.

The North would be a gigantic welfare case for at least a generation, not to mention the stark ideological and cultural differences that have arisen over the last 60 years. I mean in a true reunification each side would have a say over internal and foreign policy. Can you imagine the South allowing that to happen, considering the huge GDP disparity? Can you imagine the North just signing on to be a vassal territory of the South without some extremely strong motivator?

This. I just don't see it happening.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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I don't know how responsive the South Korean government is to what its citizens want, but an overwhelming majority of South Koreans favor unification, despite the financial implications.

http://blogs.wsj.com/korearealtime/2011/01/07/kbs-poll-sentiment-shifting-on-unification/

though obviously it would first require a total collapse of the current North Korean power structure.

Oh I'm sure they do, but I imagine if you asked them about the specific terms of the reunification it wouldn't involve the North having an equal say in what goes on in the country, at least not for awhile. (I mean really, that would be like the US having put the Confederacy equally in charge after kicking their ass) Those are terms I find the North to be unlikely to accept unless they don't have any other choice.
 

ElFenix

Elite Member
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Mar 20, 2000
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If the North Korean government was to collapse you would probably see reunification.

The South would probably take over similar to East & West Germany.

It would probably only take a decade for the north to catch up to the south in many ways. There would be a huge stream of money into the north building factories and such.

The world would be a better place too.

we're 2 decades in from german reunification and the eastern part still has issues. and east germany was a much more advanced place with much more contact with the west than north korea is.
 

Cogman

Lifer
Sep 19, 2000
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Korea is not reuniting any time soon. I imagine the only way that the South will reunite with the North is when circumstances force their hand either through a revolution or some sort of collapse in the North.

The North would be a gigantic welfare case for at least a generation, not to mention the stark ideological and cultural differences that have arisen over the last 60 years. I mean in a true reunification each side would have a say over internal and foreign policy. Can you imagine the South allowing that to happen, considering the huge GDP disparity? Can you imagine the North just signing on to be a vassal territory of the South without some extremely strong motivator?

Right now, the North is essentially a welfare case. Pretty much their entire GDP comes from imports from China, South Korea, and I kid you not, the US. Reunification would essentially shift China's role in North Korea completely over to South Korea. Since china currently donates the lions share of North Korea's "economy", this would a be HUGE burden for South Korea.

Not only that, but I can only imagine was sort of mess all the public facilities are in North Korea. It would probably take decades and billions of dollars to bring North Korea up to first world standards (And that would probably be mainly in the large cities). All the while, North Korea will provide pretty much nothing to the union. Their labor force would be mostly uneducated and provide very little to Korea's GDP.

Not to mention the tangled mess of getting everyone documented so they can work in better with south korea's current system.

For south korea, this would be a nightmare with very few benefits. The biggest being that they don't have to worry about their insane neighbor potentially shooting artillery into their cities.

China would LOVE it. They prop up NK right now just because they don't want to deal with some psycho with weapons shooting into Chinese territory. They also don't have to waist any money on NK any more, it would be a nice economic surplus for them.

The US would love it because they could move their military out and start to close down bases in SK. Plus there would be one fewer crazy dictator in the world to worry about.

The North Koreans might eventually love it. I could see there being a huge resistance from the people in the beginning, but I think after 10 or 20 years, they would be singing praises about how this is the greatest thing that ever happened to them (assuming SK puts in the time and money to start moving them up to first world status).

No, the only people that would really hate this are the current NK administration and the South Koreans. The two people that are needed for this to even be considered.

Why we gave back so much land to the North Koreans is beyond me. Most of the issues we have with North Korea could have been shrunk if we didn't give them so much freaking land. I realize that it would have been dicey to wipe them out all together, a war with china was the last thing anyone wanted.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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US troops in South Korea aren't going anywhere no matter what the North does.

We didn't 'give' them back anything, we realized that fighting the world's largest army in terrain that significantly limited our technological and firepower advantages wasn't worth what we would get by winning, even if we could have.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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A reunited Korea would be much more powerful economically, just like a reunited Germany.

There's no economic downside for S Korea.

23 million mostly starving, poorly educated, racist dwarves sitting atop a ruined infrastructure is most certainly an economic downside for South Korea.
 

Cogman

Lifer
Sep 19, 2000
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US troops in South Korea aren't going anywhere no matter what the North does.
Not totally and not for the first few years, however, they would slowly start to leave. The number of people we send over would decrease for sure.

We didn't 'give' them back anything, we realized that fighting the world's largest army in terrain that significantly limited our technological and firepower advantages wasn't worth what we would get by winning, even if we could have.

My mistake. My history teacher didn't do a good job with the Korean war.
Korean_war_1950-1953.gif


The 11/1950 boarder is the one I keep thinking about when I think about the end of the korean war (even though it was 3 years before it actually ended).
 

fskimospy

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Mar 10, 2006
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Not totally and not for the first few years, however, they would slowly start to leave. The number of people we send over would decrease for sure.

A big reason why we want troops in SK is to project power in the region, primarily due to China. I think we would be reluctant to remove those. South Korea might force us to eventually, but I think so long as we can they will stay there.

My mistake. My history teacher didn't do a good job with the Korean war.
Korean_war_1950-1953.gif


The 11/1950 boarder is the one I keep thinking about when I think about the end of the korean war (even though it was 3 years before it actually ended).

There's a really good book about what happened in the first part of the war, called 'The Coldest Winter'. I read it several years ago, it's really interesting. Needless to say our original plan was to wipe North Korea off the face of the earth, but a few hundred thousand Chinese made that... difficult.
 
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Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
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Korea is not reuniting any time soon. I imagine the only way that the South will reunite with the North is when circumstances force their hand either through a revolution or some sort of collapse in the North.

The North would be a gigantic welfare case for at least a generation, not to mention the stark ideological and cultural differences that have arisen over the last 60 years. I mean in a true reunification each side would have a say over internal and foreign policy. Can you imagine the South allowing that to happen, considering the huge GDP disparity? Can you imagine the North just signing on to be a vassal territory of the South without some extremely strong motivator?
It's miraculous how fvcked up the NK population seems. They really are nationally traumatized. If they were reunited with SK and the DMZ removed it would be an immeasurable shock to their systems.
 

kreactor

Senior member
Jan 3, 2005
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and what of the NK military? will the loyal 'kJI as deity' indoctrinates that will lose their profession, status become the new insurgency and initiate a swiri/shiri type mission?
how will the sleeper agents in SK react when the news breaks?
 

kreactor

Senior member
Jan 3, 2005
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besides the refugee influx, no way will the chinese want the dmz to shift a few hundred miles north esp as the u.s. military (future defense industry lobbyist) are 'troubled' by china's rising military expenditures despite its minute % to total gdp vs the u.s.....sharing borders is only workable when your neighbor is constantly destabilize like u.s. would not allow a united south american federation
 

Infohawk

Lifer
Jan 12, 2002
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I think most people want it but it would be ugly at first. The cultural and financial differences are now even more different than the east germany / west germany divide.
 

EagleKeeper

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Oct 30, 2000
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w/ East Germany - they could see what the West had and feel that they should have the same goods but under the existing cradle to grave structure.

When that did not happen; the revolts started.

When the walls came down, the East Germans expected the same cradle to grave support to obtain the "western services". They were not used to working for goods in the same way.


w/ N Korea - they have little idea of what S Korea has. They are kept completely isolated by the media and government as to what is out there.

If the barriers (no walls exist) come down to S Korea; the NK have little knowledge of what to expect. There is very very little cultural exchange between the two sides to allow a picture of what is available. The NK are a beaten down slave culture.

The NK would slowly come into SK and trickle down the peninsula; majority if feel will stay up north in their comfort zone for many years. The west & SK will have to start up a Marshall plan in NK to slowly improve the conditions there. Create some economic zones.

China does not want a mass exodus of refugees so they will have a tight border and also may be willing to contribute to investments to help bring the NK up to at least Chinese standards.

To far to fast will create a desire/unrest in the Chinese provinces near by. To little and the NK population near the border will start to attempt to get into China now that the iron curtain is down and they can see some opportunity. China would be closer that the trek down to SK or the new economic zones in NK.

China will be more worried about political and economic instability along the border area than they will having a military presence of SK without the buffer zone. If no large bases are set up in the NK area to give China a threatening feeling; they may realize that cooperation economically and keeping their border secure to their standards will work.
 

Nebor

Lifer
Jun 24, 2003
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I see little point to reunification unless the North's government collapses. It would cause SK to incur an enormous welfare cost.

Also for those concerned about US forces in Korea, they've been dramatically drawn down in the past decade. Also the operational order in the event of a conflict on the peninsula was written by the South Koreans. It's their show now, we'll just act to support them.