The Hurt Report. Good data. Let's look at what you find potentially damning for the "don't start out on a supersport" crowd.
7. The failure of motorists to detect and recognize motorcycles in traffic is the predominating cause of motorcycle accidents. The driver of the other vehicle involved in collision with the motorcycle did not see the motorcycle before the collision, or did not see the motorcycle until too late to avoid the collision.
This is quite true; motorists not seeing motorcycles is the largest single cause of accidents. However, this doesn't say anything at all about what how the sportiness of a motorcycle affects the likelihood of a novice rider error.
Citing this as evidence that supersports are good beginner bikes is a bit like responding to someone who says that it's dangerous to intentionally swim with sharks by saying that more people are killed by lightning. Technically true, but not relevant to whether or not swimming with sharks increases one's danger while swimming.
15. The median pre-crash speed was 29.8 mph, and the median crash speed was 21.5 mph, and the one-in-a-thousand crash speed is approximately 86 mph.
It may be simple unfamiliarity with statistics that is making you quote this one. A "median" is not an average; rather the median is the point at which half the data are below and half above. The fact that the median is low while the 1 in 1,000 value is high suggests that the bell curve is highly skewed with a long tail. This means that of those crashes below the median, most are going to be close to the median speed, while those crashes above the median speed are likely to be significantly above the median value.
It would be interesting to find out what the actual arithmetic mean pre-crash speed was as that, together with the median, would provide still more insight on the actual shape of the bell curve. In any case, it is statistically safe to assume that the arithmetic mean is higher than the median.
Even if these values were the mean, they still do not address the actual argument against supersports as beginner bikes. No-one has said that a novice rider will crash at high speeds. Rather, what has been repeatedly said is that supersports are much more sensitive to rider input and are twitchier. Come around a 30 mph corner in second and give it too much and it's easier to low-side a supersport. That crash would be right at the median speed, but it's more likely with a supersport than with a standard.
19. Motorcycle riders between the ages of 16 and 24 are significantly over-represented in accidents; motorcycle riders between the ages of 30 and 50 are significantly under represented. Although the majority of the accident-involved motorcycle riders are male (96%), the female motorcycle riders are significantly over represented in the accident data.
Agreed. However, see my response with the analogy of sharks and lightning. These data don't contradict anything the "don't start on a supersport" crowd has said.
23. More than half of the accident-involved motorcycle riders had less than 5 months experience on the accident motorcycle, although the total street riding experience was almost 3 years. Motorcycle riders with dirt bike experience are significantly under represented in the accident data.
Agreed. However, see my response with the analogy of sharks and lightning. These data don't contradict anything the "don't start on a supersport" crowd has said.
30. The large displacement motorcycles are under represented in accidents but they are associated with higher injury severity when involved in accidents.
This requires understanding the timeframe in which the data were gathered.
In the late 1970's, the only manufacturer with bikes that were consistently over 750cc was Harley Davidson. In fact, aside from dedicated racing bikes, Harley hasn't made anything smaller than an 883cc bike since 1953, which was the last year of the 750cc K-model Sportsters. The "superbikes" of the era were 750cc UJMs with just under 70 hp. The "large displacement motorcycles" of the Hurt Report are not high-power sportbikes, but big, slow-revving cruisers with a smattering of 4-cylinder UJMs thrown in.
It's vitally important to understand data in context. When taken in context, none of these data you've cited offer any contradictions to the advice of "don't start out on a supersport" and by attempting to rely on these data to support your position, all you've done is demonstrate that you don't understand the data in the first place.
ZV
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