Who Created The Lie: "It Is Always A Good Time to Buy Tech"? And Why?

[poofyhairguy]

One perspective, almost truism, that I see come up again and again on technology forums (often not here) is "it is always a good time to buy." The follow up to that is something like "Buy technology when you need the technology and don't wait because there is always something better around the corner."


Who the HELL came up with this BS philosophy? With technology, more than almost any consumer product, there are GREAT and TERRIBLE times to buy and waiting sometimes IS the best move. And the examples are everywhere!

You bought that Nvidia GPU for full price a month before the new ones are released? Guess what, you bought at a terrible time.

You buy an Apple product for full price two weeks before a SCHEDULED Apple event that due to timing will most likely have an update to the product you are buying? Guess what, you bought at a TERRIBLE time and you deserve to feel buyer's remorse when the obvious new product comes out at the event.

Technology isn't a smooth slope of progress, there are stair steps- leaps of value- that happens in cycles as new products are released. Those who can see the steps can EASILY get more value than other people because either they buy products day 1 and get maximum value, or they know when to wait for something to go on clearance sale to get maximum value. Either way being smart about when you buy technology can make a HUGE difference in your final experience and the value you get from that purchase. Normally the cycles are consistent enough in timing to get a real idea of when you should buy and when you shouldn't. Some products like TVs or iPhones have such a consistent cycle you can set your watch by them.

So where did this lie come from? Why does it exist? Why do otherwise reasonable nerds push this garbage philosophy on other people in a way that it seems like "good advice"?

Thank you in advance.

 

[lxskllr]

I think the saying is accurate, but requires skilled interpretation. It's true *aside* from the examples you gave, and a techie should know that. There'll always be a better deal if you wait, and technology will always improve. You'll always be disappointed regardless of when you buy, so you might as well buy now(barring your obvious examples).

 

[gorcorps]

There may be steps to increase value, but the underlying message is still true: What you bought today is more advanced than what you bought a year ago, and if you continue to wait for "the next big thing" you could be waiting forever. There is ALWAYS a "next big thing" you could wait for.

 

[ImpulsE69]

Yep. The trick is to buy at your time and your price and be happy with it. Don't try to constantly chase the next thing. If you set your goals on a certain feature/time frame, keep to it, otherwise you will just keep waiting, in which case you didn't need it that bad to begin with.

For the most part these days, technological advances are predictable. It's about timed minimal increases to maximize profits. There are outliers, but they are few and far between. Apple Scamphones are a prime example of this.

 

[MagnusTheBrewer]

In the OP's examples, the premiums people pay for just released hardware is pretty idiotic unless, he's advocating waiting for the next release before buying the previous generation of hardware.

 

[poofyhairguy]

You'll always be disappointed regardless of when you buy, so you might as well buy now.

No, not at all. I felt like a badass when I got my clearance Panasonic Plasma the week it went on clearance (knowing that it would go on clearance then) before its spot at Best Buy got taken by LED garbage.

I felt like a badass when I got that iPad Air 2 early in its life and Apple gave it another year, or when I bought a clearance 1920x1200 monitor right before they all got replaced with 1080p ones.

Honestly I enjoy most of the technology I buy and I have VERY little buyers remorse, but I buy when it's RIGHT to buy. The only people disappointed are those who don't get all the value they can get.

And it isn't a few categories either, EVERY part of technology this side of speakers and wiring runs in cycles.

 

[Imp]

Isn't that what they say for houses?

 

[Crono]

Not that I can recall hearing the saying, but that sounds more like it's about stocks. Not that it's true there, either.

 

[poofyhairguy]

There may be steps to increase value, but the underlying message is still true: What you bought today is more advanced than what you bought a year ago, and if you continue to wait for "the next big thing" you could be waiting forever. There is ALWAYS a "next big thing" you could wait for.

Sure technology is always moving, but the value of each jump from cycle to cycle isn't the same.

The iPad Air 2 was a major leap over the iPad Air 1. Skylake isn't a huge leap over Haswell. LED tvs that replaced plasma tvs in most cases had worse picture quality.

Sometime just getting on the right cycle for purchases is half the battle.

 

[poofyhairguy]

In the OP's examples, the premiums people pay for just released hardware is pretty idiotic unless,

That is a generality that is sometimes false.

For something like iPhones, they rarely go on sale (other than subsidy promotions). So buying for full price day one is the best way to get maximum value for your purchase.

he's advocating waiting for the next release before buying the previous generation of hardware.

Or more exactly, having an idea when the next generation of hardware is coming and anticipating some sort of sale before then.

Clearance prices aren't just deals, they are practical. The vendor HAS TO sell the product to clear space for more product. At some point sitting on the old product at full price is bad for the vendor and taking a hit to clear the spot is worth it.

Waiting for this moment can sometimes give you maximum purchase value, especially if the product you are buying isn't hugely different than the generation of product that follows it (like Haswell to Skylake).

 

[Imp]

In the OP's examples, the premiums people pay for just released hardware is pretty idiotic unless, he's advocating waiting for the next release before buying the previous generation of hardware.

Count me in. I bought a Blackberry Playbook two weeks after release.

 

[dave_the_nerd]

Did all of us nerds have some meeting (somewhere I wasn't invited) and decided to create the lie so "normal" people aren't as scared of technology? So that "normal" people buy at the WRONG time to create the margin that allows me to get a ton of stuff cheap on Black Friday? Because other than manipulating people too stupid to figure out product cycles for personal benefit I cannot see the value of this wrong truism.

Close. We started telling people this so they'd leave us alone.

We know Uncle Bob is going to use his naked lady machine for 4-6 years without upgrading or updating it, and that he'll be happy almost no matter what he buys. So we tell them, "just go here and buy this, don't worry about the details". If he takes our advice, he'll be happy, if he doesn't, it's not our problem.

It's also about price/performance and/or effort/reward. Spending a month of evenings bargain-hunting, hemming and hawing to maybe - maybe - get something 3% faster for 5% less? Maybe worth it for somebody with nothing better to do, but most of us 1) can afford the 5%, 2) won't notice the 3%, 3) need a computer soon because it's used to do our job/hobby/educate the kids, etc.

 

[poofyhairguy]

Close. We started telling people this so they'd leave us alone.

We know Uncle Bob is going to use his naked lady machine for 4-6 years without upgrading or updating it, and that he'll be happy almost no matter what he buys. So we tell them, "just go here and buy this, don't worry about the details". If he takes our advice, he'll be happy, if he doesn't, it's not our problem.

I guess I don't get that because I LIKE giving people advice of when to buy. I like that family members look to me to know when to get the best value. I like when they get a good deal or get a piece of technology that will last them a long time, like when they get a great deal on a TV by waiting until Superbowl weekend because I said to do that.

If I didn't like that I would just say "buy whenever." Probably more exactly "buy Apple stuff whenever" to get off the tech support hook too. Even then though I would tell them "WAIT!" if the new iProduct was going to come soon.

If I am honest with myself some of my personal ego is tied to being right about this sort of stuff and other people looking up to me for that reason. I thought other nerds were the same way. That is my delusion I guess.

It's also about price/performance and/or effort/reward. Spending a month of evenings bargain-hunting, hemming and hawing to maybe - maybe - get something 3% faster for 5% less? Maybe worth it for somebody with nothing better to do, but most of us 1) can afford the 5%, 2) won't notice the 3%, 3) need a computer soon because it's used to do our job/hobby/educate the kids, etc.

Sure there are times when the effort is wasted. Not every cycle is a leap, not every clearance deal is worth what you lose not having the latest and greatest if a generational leap is massive.

But often the difference isn't so trival. The leap in power from the iPad Air 1 to the iPad Air 2 was over 60%. A LG OLED gives you MAGNITUDES better picture quality than the LED that was once sold in its place. Clearance prices are more like 10-40% off than 3% off.

I would more believe that people rationalize to themselves that the differences are so minor as an excuse to not put in the effort to figure out when to buy (or to not feel bad if they HAVE to buy at a poor time). Single digit differences in price or power if you are timing it right are rare.

 

[dave_the_nerd]

I guess I don't get that because I LIKE giving people advice of when to buy. I like that family members look to me to know when to get the best value. I like when they get a good deal or get a piece of technology that will last them a long time, like when they get a great deal on a TV by waiting until Superbowl weekend because I said to do that.

If I didn't like that I would just say "buy whenever." Probably more exactly "buy Apple stuff whenever" to get off the tech support hook too. Even then though I would tell them "WAIT!" if the new iProduct was going to come soon.

If I am honest with myself some of my personal ego is tied to being right about this sort of stuff and other people looking up to me for that reason. I thought other nerds were the same way. That is my delusion I guess.

Meh, I used to be that way. Then I got a job doing IT for a living. Now? I don't even want to think about it anymore. Don't ask me about computers, leave me alone or pay me my going rate. Nobody wants to do that last part.

Apple tablets/phones are kind of unique with the annual release cycle - I'll still tell people to hold off when a new scheduled release is pending, but not if it's more than a month or two. I'm not trying to purposefully give bad advice, just not trying to give overly complicated advice - it's lost on the unaware and only serves to fuel my ego anyway.

Sure there are times when the effort is wasted. Not every cycle is a leap, not every clearance deal is worth what you lose not having the latest and greatest if a generational leap is massive.

But often the difference isn't so trival. The leap in power from the iPad Air 1 to the iPad Air 2 was over 60%. A LG OLED gives you MAGNITUDES better picture quality than the LED that was once sold in its place. Clearance prices are more like 10-40% off than 3% off.

I would more believe that people rationalize to themselves that the differences are so minor as an excuse to not put in the effort to figure out when to buy (or to not feel bad if they HAVE to buy at a poor time). Single digit differences in price or power if you are timing it right are rare.

If you are timing it right, a lot of things are possible. Not worth the effort and inconvenience to time every tech purchase right, though. Get a computer, put it on a desk, declare victory, go home/drink/sexytime/whatever.

 

[poofyhairguy]

Meh, I used to be that way. Then I got a job doing IT for a living. Now? I don't even want to think about it anymore. Don't ask me about computers, leave me alone or pay me my going rate. Nobody wants to do that last part.

Apple tablets/phones are kind of unique with the annual release cycle - I'll still tell people to hold off when a new scheduled release is pending, but not if it's more than a month or two. I'm not trying to purposefully give bad advice, just not trying to give overly complicated advice - it's lost on the unaware and only serves to fuel my ego anyway.

Thank you. That makes sense to me but I wouldn't have gotten there by myself.

If you are timing it right, a lot of things are possible. Not worth the effort and inconvenience to time every tech purchase right, though. Get a computer, put it on a desk, declare victory, go home/drink/sexytime/whatever.

I think you made me realize I might like dealhunting more than I like technology as an adult. That is pretty depressing, I never had to face that fact because they overlap so greatly. But honestly I keep thinking "well it is no effort for me because I am gonna check Slickdeals everyday anyway." I need to check myself I guess.

Thank you for the honest insight.

 

[AznAnarchy99]

Meh, I used to be that way. Then I got a job doing IT for a living. Now? I don't even want to think about it anymore. Don't ask me about computers, leave me alone or pay me my going rate. Nobody wants to do that last part.

This. If I'm off the clock don't ask me to look at your computer.

 

[GoodEnough]

I've never heard this claim made about buying consumer tech.
I've only heard it to describe real estate.

 

[KeithP]

You are cherry picking examples where most reasonable people would never say it is okay to "buy now". Therefore, your premise is flawed and you just seem to be trolling.

-KeithP

 

[sandorski]

I did. Please note you are in violation of the Terms of Use and my records indicate that you have not submitted the required License Fee.



Please address these issues.