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White House rejects Iraq 'failures'

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I have other things I have to do right now so I'll answer your post later, but thanks for providing a reasonable post that clearly spells out what you mean and one that (mostly) refrains from trash talk. Seriously.

You seem like you're a pretty smart guy and I'd actually like to talk about this stuff... but it's not possible if people are just throwing crap around.

Oh, I did provide 'fairly strong' evidence for the administration suppressing dissenting viewpoints in a previous post BTW.
 
Originally posted by: Dari
Originally posted by: Bowfinger
Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
Don't worry. We already lost in Iraq. Harry Reid said so. ...
Reid was right. The war on Iraq is already a failure: hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqis dead, over 3,700 American soldiers dead, uncounted American and ally contractors dead, much of the country's infrastructure destroyed, and upwards of a trillion dollars pissed away ... all for a pack of lies. That is failure, no matter how the Bush faithful shift the goal posts and try to redefine success. The only open question is how big and how long the failure will be before life in Iraq returns to being no more miserable than it was before we trashed the place.

Well said.:thumbsup:

:thumbsup:
 
Originally posted by: eskimospy
I have other things I have to do right now so I'll answer your post later, but thanks for providing a reasonable post that clearly spells out what you mean and one that (mostly) refrains from trash talk. Seriously.

You seem like you're a pretty smart guy and I'd actually like to talk about this stuff... but it's not possible if people are just throwing crap around.

Oh, I did provide 'fairly strong' evidence for the administration suppressing dissenting viewpoints in a previous post BTW.
Fair enough. I offered an olive branch. You accepted. Now I cannot resist your charm and class. 🙂

I look forward to your reply.
 
I guess my fundamental problem with your viewpoint is that I don't see the effectiveness of military action. While you are certainly correct that our withdrawal will be used as a propaganda tool by our enemies, our continued presence there is already being used as such a tool. I see no reason to believe that the difference between those two types of recruiting calls is worth thousands more lives, and billions (trillions?) more dollars on our part.

Do you think that the establishment of Iraq as a stable democracy will decrease worldwide terrorism? If so, why? What do you think the effect will be of another US client state (which lets be honest, Iraq is) on extremists in Saudi Arabia and Sudan? Will the US occupation of Shia holy sites lead to radicalized Shia terror as the presence of US troops in Saudi Arabia has done? These are all important questions, and ones that are not adequately addressed when we consider the consequences of creating a western state in our image out of Iraq. Probably too many to answer in a post... but my point is that staying and establishing a state such as this will have a large set of consequences attached to it that people tend not to realize.

As far as the definition of victory goes, I have to be honest that I don't have much faith in such a country as you describe emerging. We have been aiming for the same goals for four and a half years now, and most of them have nothing to show for it. The surge, which by all appearances is our last gasp effort to provide stability, has done nothing to decrease the levels of violence on a countrywide scale. (yeah, I know some areas are better, but others got worse... and if you look at the AP's countrywide death statistics the months of the surge have been among the worst of all time). It is my conclusion that basically, the goals of our country and the goals of the governing Iraqis are simply different. They don't want a national unity government with the Sunnis. If we aren't working towards the same goals, how can we hope to accomplish it?

Okay, this post is getting long... but I do not think a democratic, stable Iraq is possible right now. (to be honest I'm not at all convinced democracy is compatible with Islam, period.) Sadly enough an authoritarian, stable Iraq might be a possibility. That's what I mean by realistic expectations. I would also be up for the partition of Iraq, although that solution is not nearly as easy as many try to make it sound. The current goals and strategy however have been failing for more then four years at this point, and I see no signs of this changing. Because of that reason, I do not believe that we can meet our goals... and that is why we should leave.

Hopefully that's not too meandering, but I was trying to cover a lot of different topics.

 
We keep hearing this about our presence being used as a propaganda tool which supposedly recruits more jihadis to join their great religious cause and serve their god hoping for the ultimate sacrifice. However, since terrorist groups really don't tend to post weekly enrollment figures it's difficult to get any grasp on the reality of that statement. As far as the money this war is costing, one attack by a small group of Muslim fanatics that barely lasted a few hours cost this country more than we've spent in Iraq. The damage 9/11 created in lost jobs alone was more than enough to cover the war in Iraq. That doesn't even begin to assess the worldwide trickle-down impact of 9/11. That highlights the problem in Iraq too. It only takes a few to raise hell. We focus on those few as if they represent the entirety of Iraqis when that nothing even close to the truth.

Will a stable Iraq decrease terrorism around the world? I doubt it because contrary to popular opinion and the occassional Chomski-ist fearmongering, the Islamic radicals aren't doing this because of our presence in the ME. They are doing this because it's what they believe their religion commands them to do. It's their distorted view of Islam that drives them. Western intervention is a fig leaf. However, being in Iraq will allow us to keep a much closer eye on the militants and react much quicker when they do try something. It's harder for kids to get away with things when they're parents are looking over their shoulder instead of being on the other side of the house.

We've been there for 4-1/2 years and are in the process of rebuilding their Military and Police. While we are doing fairly well with the military side, the police side is still lacking. Then again, if we look at our own history in the US of our police force it took well over a hudred years to establish what we know today as police. Before that there were representatives (sheriffs, marshalls, etc.) who covered terroritories but policing was done by what we would refer to today as "militias." Somehow we made it though. As to realistic expectations, rebuilding something of this scale requires quite a bit of time. During that time we won't always be taking steps forward. Sometimes they go back. Unfortunately every time we take a step backwards the naysayers use it as an opportunity to point and go "See, Iraq isn't working. It's a cluster, a quagmire, a disaster!" irl, we all know that progress is rarely composed of a steady clip forward. So why is there this unrealistic expectation that Iraq is exempt from that common knowledge? I don't get it.

I do think a stable, democratic Iraq is possible. History has shown that occupations generally require 7 years to get a country back on its feet both economically and militarily. Sure, Iraq is different from other occupations in that there's an insurgency. But I think we can taqmp that down in the 7 years time as well.

If Iraq is not a stable democracy in 7 years I will gladly admit I was wrong on the assessment. Sadly I don't think Americans have the fortitude and/or perserverance to permit that to happen.
 
One piece of good news for you: we will still be there in some form 7 years from now, I guarantee you that.

Also, the CIA does in fact keep track of how many terrorists there are in various organizations (if you want to debate how accurate their count is I wouldn't even know where to start though). By the CIAs estimate however the numbers are increasing.

Where are you getting your information for the motivations of terrorists? I spent a bit of time in the middle east (not a lot though), I've been to a load of speeches by people from as far as Morocco to Iran, and I've read a lot of polls taken of ME opinion. US support for Israel over Palestine is always... always the reason that is far and away ahead on why the US is their enemy. Decadent culture, etc... doesn't even really register. And these are the people that are truly important. There will always be some nutballs out there that are going to try to blow themselves (and us) up no matter what we do, and those people just have to be either jailed or killed. The real fight is for the minds of the rest of them, the ones who aren't too far gone, and to these people our intervention DOES matter. I think our occupation in Iraq does change these people's minds because it validates exactly what the crazies have been telling them for years.

I think we might be looking at apples and oranges when it comes to Iraq. Has the military improved? Sure, that's what the reports say. Does it matter? I don't think so. When I said that the Iraqi government doesn't want the same things that we want... that's sort of what I meant. There in effect is no Iraqi government. There are no national institutions, and the problem is that nobody seems interested in building them. The loyalties of the national government have proven time and again to be to their sect, and to their tribes. When they ask people to list their enemies in Iraq, Coalition soldiers always come in second on the list of who they want to kill behind their sectarian enemies. This speaks exceptionally poorly for the prospects of a unity government... which is why I am unconvinced that a democratic government is possible in a unified Iraq. A strongman? Maybe. A prime minister? no. A lot of countries that you're probably referring to had a lot more significant national identity then Iraq does. I honestly don't think that many Iraqis really care that strongly if Iraq stays together like it is or not.

It seems to me that you believe that the national government can overcome these obstacles... and so my question to you would be how? Do you think they just need more time? Do you think the security situation needs to improve? I personally have trouble seeing how someone can corrall these people together without an exceptionally strong hand to bend them to his will.
 
Originally posted by: eskimospy
One piece of good news for you: we will still be there in some form 7 years from now, I guarantee you that.
I was speaking of total occupation time of 7 years. iow, less than 3 more years from now. No doubt we'll still have some troops there years down the road. But we still have troops in Germany and Japan and I don't believe either of those qualify as occupied countries.

Also, the CIA does in fact keep track of how many terrorists there are in various organizations (if you want to debate how accurate their count is I wouldn't even know where to start though). By the CIAs estimate however the numbers are increasing.
Is this the very same CIA that claimed Saddam had WMDs? 😉

Where are you getting your information for the motivations of terrorists? I spent a bit of time in the middle east (not a lot though), I've been to a load of speeches by people from as far as Morocco to Iran, and I've read a lot of polls taken of ME opinion. US support for Israel over Palestine is always... always the reason that is far and away ahead on why the US is their enemy. Decadent culture, etc... doesn't even really register. And these are the people that are truly important. There will always be some nutballs out there that are going to try to blow themselves (and us) up no matter what we do, and those people just have to be either jailed or killed. The real fight is for the minds of the rest of them, the ones who aren't too far gone, and to these people our intervention DOES matter. I think our occupation in Iraq does change these people's minds because it validates exactly what the crazies have been telling them for years.
It's not US support of Israel over Palestine that angers people in the ME. It's simply US support of Israel, period. The ME countries have little care for the Palestinians themselves. Palestinians are nothing more than a means to a desired end and a rallying point to get the Jews out of the ME, which incenses them to no end. If the Pals themselves were that important to countries in the ME many of those same countries wouln't have kicked out Palestinians themselves through the course of their histories. And if making sure Middle Easterners have their rightful homeland was the true goal then they'd care about the Kurds too. But they don't.

So the "Palestinian" conflict really has little to do with the Palestinians and a lot to do with the Israelis and Jews.

I think we might be looking at apples and oranges when it comes to Iraq. Has the military improved? Sure, that's what the reports say. Does it matter? I don't think so. When I said that the Iraqi government doesn't want the same things that we want... that's sort of what I meant. There in effect is no Iraqi government. There are no national institutions, and the problem is that nobody seems interested in building them. The loyalties of the national government have proven time and again to be to their sect, and to their tribes. When they ask people to list their enemies in Iraq, Coalition soldiers always come in second on the list of who they want to kill behind their sectarian enemies. This speaks exceptionally poorly for the prospects of a unity government... which is why I am unconvinced that a democratic government is possible in a unified Iraq. A strongman? Maybe. A prime minister? no. A lot of countries that you're probably referring to had a lot more significant national identity then Iraq does. I honestly don't think that many Iraqis really care that strongly if Iraq stays together like it is or not.
Polls of Iraqis say otherwise:

http://www.iri.org/mena/iraq/2006-07-19-IraqPoll.asp

Iraqis are far more natioalistic than some people in the west give them credit for.

It seems to me that you believe that the national government can overcome these obstacles... and so my question to you would be how? Do you think they just need more time? Do you think the security situation needs to improve? I personally have trouble seeing how someone can corrall these people together without an exceptionally strong hand to bend them to his will.
Of course they need more time. Demanding they have their shit together politically in a scant 2 years or so after rebuilding it from scratch and implementing a new political process? Is that realistic?
 
Well about the numbers of terrorists... if you have a better source then the CIA then by all means lets use it. Untill then I feel like they are the best estimate of what's going on.

You're right that the countries in the ME are using the Palestinians against Israel and that they don't care about the people per se. It doesn't really change the validity of my point though... US intervention fuels anger and radicalizes moderates.

While Iraqis may believe that a unity government is important, their ideas on what that government should be are so far apart that they aren't even really recognizeable. They really aren't talking about the same things in the slightest. This is why efforts at a unity government have gone nowhere.

Finally though, of course having a perfectly functioning government from scratch in 2 years isn't realistic. The thing is that they don't even have a functioning government in any sense of the word. I fully expect it to be scrapped in its entirety and reformed in the near future because it is a complete and total failure at this point. You don't have a right to expect them to have it all worked out in 2 years, but you have a right to expect them to have SOMETHING worked out... or at least be making good faith efforts for as much. I see no evidence of either.
 
I very much agree with what eskimospy says when he asks---It seems to me that you believe that the national government can overcome these obstacles... and so my question to you would be how? Do you think they just need more time? Do you think the security situation needs to improve? I personally have trouble seeing how someone can corrall these people together without an exceptionally strong hand to bend them to his will.

My thesis is Iraq has devolved from a police state dictatorship to feudalism. And a good historical example would be various European States that adopted the same type of societies after the fall of Rome. Or even the Greeks during their golden age. And for common protection various people rallied around a local strongman. And the local strongmen evolved into the lesser nobility and those under them became the enslaved peasants. After a long period of bumping and grinding various super strongmen were able to put together the various nation states with an extremely loose definition of nationhood and the notion of a national King evolved.

And the King had one and only one needed purpose and that being an institution various lesser lights could rally around when an external threat from another nation came. And that external threat would panic the various local strongmen to pony up the men, material, and money needed to field a national army to repel the foreign foe. The rest of the damn time the King was an unmitigated nuisance with delusions of grandeur to the local noblemen in charge of their own fiefdoms. With the Magna Carta being imposed on King John when a coalition of lesser nobles caught him by the short hairs. And King Richard the Lionhearted dying when one of his campaigns to force some local noblemen to obey him resulted in him being hit by a crossbow bolt from a castle battlement. And hundreds of years still remained before Kings allied with merchants, built and policed the roads to allow national commerce, and finally broke the power of the local nobility. Which in turn allowed their peasants to work for wages and break free of the nobility.

The problem in Iraq in even starting any sort of national progression from the strongmen or insurgents to a modern nation is that the presence of the US military removes all external national threats. So why should the various insurgents groups who have already carved up the country into local fiefdoms have any national Iraqi identity and why should they not regard the the US military as an unmitigated nuisance and a threat to their local control? When they already have their cake and get to eat it too.

So when eskimospy says---One piece of good news for you: we will still be there in some form 7 years from now, I guarantee you that.

Thats has got to be the best piece of news various Iraqi insurgent groups ever heard because the US will keep foreign threats away while they continue to make out like gangbusters. And since the local strongmen also control a good part of the Iraqi government, continuing lack of progress by the central Iraqi government is the best possible scenario for them.

 
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Well about the numbers of terrorists... if you have a better source then the CIA then by all means lets use it. Untill then I feel like they are the best estimate of what's going on.
Let's just say we've been burned once recently by the CIA. Until they begin providing more reliable intel I'll take their numbers with a grain of salt.

You're right that the countries in the ME are using the Palestinians against Israel and that they don't care about the people per se. It doesn't really change the validity of my point though... US intervention fuels anger and radicalizes moderates.
My point was that US intervention doesn't mean crap. For the radicals it's their version of Islam that drives what they do. They already have the anger and bloodlust. Then they look for a target at which to vent their rage. OBL was pious from a young age. He quizzed his friends on the Quran and prided himself on his knowledge. He was already indoctrinated into fundamentalist Islam before he began his militant phase. And OBL happened to focus his rage on the west, after it was focused on the USSR. He also didn't focus on the west until he was denied by the Suadi Defense minister from using his Muj to protect Saudi Arabia from Saddam. So let's say I questions OBL's Islamic motives for hating the West and the US specifically. imo, it's primarily about his pride and Islam is secondary.

For some Muslim radicals their rage is focused on the west. For others it's the Sri Lankan government, the Thai government, Turkey, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, The Philipines, and numerous countries in Africa. How does western intervention figure into that? Are the hard-cores angry because younger people in many of those countries are adopting western culture? Let's face it. We in the west don't adopt practices from eastern cultures unless we find it appealing. Nobody forces that adoption down our throats. I doubt anyone feels that adopting practices from numerous cultures somehow dilutes our own culture either. So do people really want to claim that we are imposing our culture on the ME? If we gave the real choice to middle eastern women about wearing hijabs or viels, how long do you think that practice would continue.

While Iraqis may believe that a unity government is important, their ideas on what that government should be are so far apart that they aren't even really recognizeable. They really aren't talking about the same things in the slightest. This is why efforts at a unity government have gone nowhere.
Look around this forum. Are we really any different? We have a unity government, one of the best in the world, and we still bicker over our government like a gaggle of grannies playing Canasta.

Finally though, of course having a perfectly functioning government from scratch in 2 years isn't realistic. The thing is that they don't even have a functioning government in any sense of the word. I fully expect it to be scrapped in its entirety and reformed in the near future because it is a complete and total failure at this point. You don't have a right to expect them to have it all worked out in 2 years, but you have a right to expect them to have SOMETHING worked out... or at least be making good faith efforts for as much. I see no evidence of either.
Can you explain how they don't have a functioning government? I agree that their government isn't functioning well and that they still have many issues, but I fail to see how it's not functioning.
 
Well I based my ideas for terrorism on an authoritative government agency. I feel like in order to dispute those you would need to provide some alternate statistics from a credible source.

US intervention means a ton. Why do insurgencies in other countries have any bearing on what we're talking about? By that same logic I could bring up the Catholic insurgency in Northern Ireland, how about the Boers in South Africa? I guess western intervention didn't cause those either, but that doesn't mean the slightest thing as to whether or not western intervention is causing continued problems in the ME today for us.

Again, if you check the polling in countries in the middle east you will find that rejecting 'decadent' western culture is pretty low on their list of grievances. It really just doesn't register that much.

Finally in terms of a functioning government... how is it functioning? It is unable to exert control over its territory, it is unable to oversee the distribution of services, it is unable to distribute the country's oil wealth, it's overwhelmed by corruption, and it can't effectively coordinate with local governments in the provinces. That's not "a few problems" that's a government that is in total collapse.
 
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Well I based my ideas for terrorism on an authoritative government agency. I feel like in order to dispute those you would need to provide some alternate statistics from a credible source.
My point is that there doesn't seem to be any credible source in the first place.

US intervention means a ton. Why do insurgencies in other countries have any bearing on what we're talking about? By that same logic I could bring up the Catholic insurgency in Northern Ireland, how about the Boers in South Africa? I guess western intervention didn't cause those either, but that doesn't mean the slightest thing as to whether or not western intervention is causing continued problems in the ME today for us.
Those are not just insurgencies in those other countries. They are militant Islamic insurgencies. That's the common thread and that is why the insurgencies in those other countries have a bearing on what we are talking about.

Again, if you check the polling in countries in the middle east you will find that rejecting 'decadent' western culture is pretty low on their list of grievances. It really just doesn't register that much.
If you'll check the grievances of the radical Islamists, which is specifically what I was discussing, the claim of Western intervention is pretty high on their list. However, I don't buy it. As I've stated already that complaint, imo, is a fig leaf and is a propaganda tool they use against the West. They employ it to play on the guilt of the Chomskyist types who then go "See! They hate us because we interfere in their business. If we just left them alone it'd be all better." A recently reformed Islamic militant wrote that they used to laugh at the people who bought that BS hook, line, and sinker.

Finally in terms of a functioning government... how is it functioning? It is unable to exert control over its territory, it is unable to oversee the distribution of services, it is unable to distribute the country's oil wealth, it's overwhelmed by corruption, and it can't effectively coordinate with local governments in the provinces. That's not "a few problems" that's a government that is in total collapse.
How can a government that hasn't even had the chance to mature and work out their initial problems "collapse?" Wouldn't they have to be a fully, or at least decently, functioning government in the first place for that to happen?
 
I just don't see how you can reject the CIA's estimates without providing a cause more concrete then because they were wrong about an unrelated issue that was heavily politicized.

I think you missed my point about insurgencies though. Mine was that insurgencies exist for a huge variety of reasons, and just because some insurgencies might be around without the influence of western interventionalism doesn't mean that western interventionalism hasn't caused/contributed to others. I was just showing you that making unrelated examples doesn't help your case. Specifically, we are referring to the threat to the US and its interests and if you read up on many of the insurgencies you mentioned you will see that they are only targeting their home government... not the west. Because of that they fall outside of what we were talking about anyway.

About those insurgencies that you mentioned. First, it's strange that you would hold up the Phillippines as an example absent of western interventionalism. If you read up on it you will see the whole history of this (still Philippine centered) insurgency is from western interventionalism. The Thai insurgents go out of their way to avoid attacking western tourists (I was just there, I should know). How is this compatible with the idea that they are fighting because of a hatred of western culture and values? If they aren't targeting westerners, shouldn't they at least not care if some of the poisoners of their culture get caught in the crossfire? What group are you referring to in Sri Lanka anyway? The LTTE is the only serious insurgency there and they aren't Islamic. I could go on with more examples from the other countries, but you get the idea. These are bad examples, and if nothing else they reinforce my point... being that areas absent from western interventionalism do not have this global export of terrorist activities that we are so concerned about.

Unfortunately Islamic women would likely continue to wear the veil when given the choice. A good example is Turkey. Women there are fighting against the government's decision to ban Islamic clothing at universities, etc.. etc. So, apparently the practice would survive even government suppression, much less endorsement.

Remember though, that we agree on radical Islamists. Reasoning with them is pointless, and nothing we do is going to change their minds. (by the way this includes invading more places/staying in Iraq) I think you might have missed my point here as well however, the whole point is keeping MODERATE Islamists from becoming radical ones, and if you want to argue that western invasion and occupation of their countries isn't a significant radicalizing influence on moderate Islamists I would love to hear the argument for it. That's the whole point about smart antiterror policies... and why you want to give people fewer reasons to hate you. Chomsky never states that if we pull out of the ME that all Islamists are suddenly going to love us, he has always just been a proponent of giving them fewer reasons to loathe us... because catching people after they want to kill you is a lot harder then just keeping them from wanting to kill you to begin with. This is why our continued presence in Iraq is a bad thing, because it is making more people hate us. This makes us less safe.

And finally no... a government doesn't need to be particularly functional in order to collapse. It might be a weak and ineffectual government that is collapsing (as in this case), but there is no real standard outside of something being recognized as a government that is a prerequisite to collapse.
 
Originally posted by: eskimospy
I just don't see how you can reject the CIA's estimates without providing a cause more concrete then because they were wrong about an unrelated issue that was heavily politicized. ...
Remember, too, that much of the so-called "bad" intel didn't come from the CIA at all, but rather from BushCo's private intel agency they set up when they couldn't get the CIA to support their extreme positions on Iraq. That's a fact the Bush faithful consistently avoid in their zeal to scapegoat the CIA.
 
Somehow you keep missing what I'm saying about Western interventionism.

I'm saying that the reason Islamic insurgencies worldwide are fighting the West and others is not related to our intervention in their culture. It's a commonly deployed complaint that it is the primary reason the jihadists are reacting, but I don't buy it. And the Philipines does have a history with the West, but is that the reason why there are Islamic insurgents fighting there now?

As far as veils, sure there are women in Iran, Iraq, Turkey, etc. who desire to wear the them. Are they the majority? Is their opinion reflective of the majority of women in those countries? If the women in those countries were offered the choice, without retribution as to their decision, how long would the practice of wearing veils remain widespread?

A weak and ineffectual government is still functional, even if it is poorly functional. My comments about that was your characterization that it was not functioning at all. Iraqi Parliament is back in session. A non-functional government would have no such thing. I guess if we focus on all the bad things one could claim the Iraqi government is collapsing. However, I could also zero in on only on the good aspects and claim they are blazing trails.

One has to consider both the good and the bad as a whole. Their government makes progress and takes forward steps, then something bad happens and they go backwards. Are they in flux? Most definitely. Are there still many problems to be worked out? Absolutely! Are they non-functional? Nope.
 
On one side we have a White House that ?rejects Iraq failures?

On the other side we have Democrats who have already pre-judged the Petraeus report.

It seems obvious to anyone who is honest enough to admit it that both sides have already made up their minds on Iraq and are now just looking for anything that ?proves? them to be right.

Not a good way to run a war, but sadly the Iraq war has become so political that we will never get an open and honest answer from either side.
 
Originally posted by: TastesLikeChicken
Somehow you keep missing what I'm saying about Western interventionism.

I'm saying that the reason Islamic insurgencies worldwide are fighting the West and others is not related to our intervention in their culture. It's a commonly deployed complaint that it is the primary reason the are reacting, but I don't buy it. And the Philipines does have a history with the West, but is that the reason why there are Islamic insurgents fighting there now?

If you read up on those insurgencies you will see that they are operating for the same reasons that insurgencies always operate... and Islam is nothing more then one component in a LONG list that involves questions of national identity, ethnic cohesiveness, status in society, and more. Again, not even all the insurgencies you mentioned were Islamic.

Simply put, insurgencies without a legitimate grievance don't last. They fizzle. If you have JSTOR access I can forward you some good papers on the reasons why terrorist movements/insurgencies begin and end. They are centered on Al-Qaeda but they branch out and apply themselves to others as well both in terms of supporting examples and future predictions.

And yes, an extremely large reason why there is fighting in the Philippines now is because of western countries trying to lump together groups that had nothing in common in the name of territorial continuity. That has been going on there for god knows how long.
 
Here's a relevant op-ed from today's Des Moines Register:
Start withdrawal of U.S. troops
Face the facts: Independent report finds little progress in Iraq.
September 9, 2007

Most Americans don't need government reports to know things aren't going well in Iraq. There are, however, plenty of reports. And more are coming. This week brings what some consider the most important report: one from the Bush administration to Congress regarding progress in Iraq. Top commander Gen. David Petraeus, U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker and President Bush are all to address Congress.

These reports could - and should - provide impetus for Congress to direct the president to begin an orderly withdrawal of troops.

The administration has too often presented choices about U.S. military involvement in Iraq as a false dichotomy: Stay until achieving "victory," or "cut and run." The reality lies somewhere in between. Even a swift withdrawal would take months.

It should begin now, while also ramping up diplomatic efforts to engage Iraq's neighbors in checking the spread of terrorist activity or sectarian violence beyond its borders.

Earlier this year, Congress set benchmarks to meet in Iraq and required the president to report to lawmakers on progress toward achieving them. Some lawmakers - including Sen. Charles Grassley - have said the administration's report this week was so important that they needed to wait for it before making any changes in the direction of the war.

But Congress already has in hand what might be the most important - and unbiased - assessment of conditions in Iraq. The Government Accountability Office issued it Tuesday.

The same legislation that required a report from the president required a similar report from the comptroller general. The GAO interviewed Petraeus and Crocker, plus several additional military officials. This thorough analysis was enhanced by the approximately 100 Iraq-related reports and testimonies the GAO has completed since 2003.


It found the Iraqi government has met only three of the 18 political, economic and security benchmarks contained in the legislation and partially met four. That's right: three of 18.

"Overall, key legislation has not been passed, violence remains high, and it is unclear whether the Iraqi government will spend $10 billion in reconstruction funds," David Walker, comptroller general, told Congress. It's not clear whether violence has decreased. Walker called the Iraqi government "dysfunctional."

The GAO assessment should carry more weight with lawmakers than a report from the Bush administration - notorious for trying to put an optimistic face on the war.

The GAO is an independent, investigative arm of Congress. Its report is harsher than a July report from the Bush administration. Why?

"They're not independent, and we are," Walker said.

Tribal militias continue to control some areas, law enforcement is not even-handed and the number of Iraqi military units that can operate independently actually declined from March to July, the GAO found.

Meanwhile, the Iraqi government fully met only one of eight legislative benchmarks. Of particular concern, the report said, is the failure to adopt reforms to promote greater Sunni participation in the government or to develop a mechanism for sharing oil revenues.

The lack of progress in reconciling Iraq's warring factions is particularly troubling because President Bush's rationale for this year's troop surge was to provide stability and time for legislative progress.

No one should expect Iraq's religious, tribal and ethnic factions to overcome centuries of enmity in a few months. But the benchmarks are realistic steps toward stability that the Iraqi government itself had committed to achieve.

It's unconscionable to continue placing U.S. soldiers in harm's way, in the crossfire of sectarian violence, when Iraqis are unwilling to make meaningful progress toward governing themselves. Starting to withdraw troops might, finally, force them to do so.

The report from the GAO alone should be enough evidence for Congress to start the process to bring our troops home.
Good stuff. The White's House's so-called "Petraeus Report" is tainted by four years of BushCo cheerleading. The GAO report, on the other hand, offers much better credibility. The Bush administration has had plenty of time to fix their monumental cluster-fsck. We've stayed the course for far too long. It's time to cut off the cheerleaders and start listening to more rationale sources.
 
Here's another op-ed. But instead of being an op-ed from Iowa it's from the General who commanded the British troops in Iraq.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...572.html?nav=rss_world

LONDON, Sept. 7 -- The general who led the British army from the 2003 Iraq invasion until last year said that it was "too soon" to declare Iraq a failure and that Britain and the United States have a "moral commitment" not to withdraw troops prematurely.

"I just think it would be wrong to pack up before the conditions are right, and without the agreement of the Iraqi government," retired Gen. Mike Jackson said in an interview Friday.
Jackson, in the interview and in his new autobiography, "Soldier," praised the U.S. military but blamed much of the current chaos in Iraq on poor strategic planning by the Pentagon. He singled out former defense secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, calling his planning for post-invasion Iraq "intellectually bankrupt."

"I'm not saying Donald Rumsfeld is stupid, far from it," Jackson said. "But the intellectual grasp of the complexity and breadth of what this campaign was going to be about, it seems to me it wasn't there."

Jackson's comments to The Washington Post and other news organizations are the sharpest criticism to date of the United States' Iraq policy by a high-ranking British military officer. They come at a time of increasing tension between Washington and London over the future of military operations in Iraq.

The comments also come just ahead of next week's key progress report to Congress by Gen. David H. Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq, and Ryan C. Crocker, the U.S. ambassador there.

In the interview, Jackson said he believed current British commanders were right to withdraw the last British troops from downtown Basra on Monday. About 500 troops were moved to a nearby air base in what Prime Minister Gordon Brown called a shift from combat to an "overwatch" role.

"I think we had achieved everything we were going to," Jackson said.

But he stressed that significant troop withdrawals from Iraq should come only when Iraq can handle its own security. "I do believe we have a moral commitment," he said. "It's quite a thing to invade somebody's country, even if for the majority it is a better outcome than continuing under the wretched regime that they had."

Jackson, a 45-year veteran of the British military and one of its most respected figures, said the overall situation in Iraq was worse than he anticipated, largely because of poor planning for post-invasion Iraq.

He said the Pentagon, under Rumsfeld, sent too few troops to handle the period following the invasion. He also criticized decisions to disband the Iraqi army and remove virtually all former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party from the Iraqi government.

"The Pentagon leadership thought that all that was necessary is to take the head off this regime, put a new head on, and somehow everything's fine," Jackson said. "Well, it's much more complex."

Jackson said he remains an "optimist" about Iraq's future. "I am not saying that Iraq's a busted flush -- no way," Jackson said, using a poker analogy. "That Iraq has failed? It's too soon to call that."

Jackson cited recent improvements in security in Anbar province since the increase in U.S. troop numbers this year as a positive sign.

He also said he was encouraged by news of a recent meeting in Finland between representatives of Iraqi Sunni and Shiite factions. The meeting was hosted by a South African politician and Martin McGuinness, a former Irish Republican Army leader who is now deputy head of Northern Ireland's new provincial government.

Jackson, a veteran of several tours in Northern Ireland during the sectarian war known as the Troubles, said he was intrigued by the notion of applying lessons learned there and in apartheid-era South Africa to ending violence between Iraq's warring factions.

"The root cause of the inter-sectarian violence is political, therefore the solution in the end must be political in one way or another," he said.
 
To TLC,

Ah, one more report from some expert. I can give you one and only one guarantee. What ever anyone posts in terms of such expert judgments on Iraq, and what ever the expert judgment is ranging anywhere to get the heck out to stay for ever in Iraq, none of them will be found to be all that correct in predictions or based on anything but badly reasoned guesses. But I do deduce the author knows something about poker. And I do agree with many of his assessments of US mistake areas but he seems in denial about his own failures because the Brits were left with only the pretense of being in charge in their occupation area.

In short quantity is not quality. But no one faults you for lack of quantity. Nor is it ever majority rules among experts.
 
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