White House race is a close call

[JEDI]

CNN

-Democrat Barack Obama enjoys strong media coverage, turnout, fundraising.
- Republican John McCain faces uphill battle, given unpopularity of George W. Bush.
- polls still give the lead to Obama but even they routinely give him only a few percentage points and none puts him above 50 per cent

Reason why it's so close:
McCain may get elected because many voters aren't ready to back Obama.


Unfortunately, the article doesnt explain what they mean by "not ready to back Obama."

being the cynic i am, i read it as not ready to vote black. (it doesnt matter if he's actually 100% black or not. he looks black, and that's all average joe America needs?)

You thoughts?

 

[retrospooty]

Surely there are some that wont vote Black... But most of those people wouldnt vote democrat anyhow... Its not Like Clinton or edwards would have gotten much of that vote anyhow.

Many are worried of lack of experience too. A valid concern, you cant say it isnt.

I will vote Obama because I believe he has the vision and judgement to lead us into a new age. We gave the conservatives a chance, they had 8 years and made a total mess of our country, military, economy, foreign policy, etc etc... Time to try democrat again. Like it or not, under Clinton we did extremely well.

 

[Slew Foot]

Im actually surprised Obama isnt running away with this thing. If the Dems find a way to lose, they'd be the biggest chokers since the New England Patriots.

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: retrospooty
Surely there are some that wont vote Black... But most of those people wouldnt vote democrat anyhow... Its not Like Clinton or edwards would have gotten much of that vote anyhow.

Many are worried of lack of experience too. A valid concern, you cant say it isnt.

I will vote Obama because I believe he has the vision and judgement to lead us into a new age. We gave the conservatives a chance, they had 8 years and made a total mess of our country, military, economy, foreign policy, etc etc... Time to try democrat again. Like it or not, under Clinton we did extremely well.

So what magnificent bubble will the next Democratic president come up with? Clinton got lucky that he bailed at the height of the tech bubble, if he stuck around until 2002, youd say he sucked. Conversely if Bush bailed in 2004/5, at the height of the housing bubble, youd say the economy did pretty well, but he stuck around as it fell and catches the blame.

 

[RY62]

Yeah, it's because he's black.

It couldn't be because he's a corrupt, lying, inexperienced, flip flopping, Chicago politician who tried to pull the wool over our eyes and make us think he was an agent of change sent from God above to bring us hope and a new kind of politics.

It couldn't be that Americans have begun to see through the smoke and mirrors facade to find that there's no more substance than following what the poll of the day says we want to hear.

His numbers are falling and Dems are leaving the party just because he's black. :roll:

 

[Genx87]

Well the bottom line is the country seems to split pretty evenly down the middle between both parties. So seeing both in a neck and neck race shouldnt surprise anybody. Except the obamabots who really thought he would win by double digits.

 

[fskimospy]

With our current electoral atmosphere and the hyperpartisanship that's developed in America over the last 30 years, you just aren't going to see someone win the presidency by 20 points or whatever. Never going to happen. Most polls have Obama up by somewhere between 5 and 10 points, which as things are currently is pretty huge. A ten point victory is a landslide, and some of the more Obama friendly polls have him closing in on landslide territory.

I'm not sure what people were expecting?

 

[woodie1]

One problem BHO has is all the media attention will magnify any slight change/clarification on his position when he makes a speech. That makes him appear to be flip-flopping, true or not. When McCain goofs or changes his stance it doesn't seem to get as much coverage.

I agree that given all the dynamics of this election BHO should be way over 50% in the polls.

EDIT: I just saw this -

This Sunday, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows the race still very close with Obama attracting 44% of the vote while McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it?s Obama 47% and McCain 46%.

 

[misle]

I don't like McCain, but he'll probably get my vote.

The color of Obama's skin doesn't even come into play. The size of his ears on the other hand....

The lack of experience bothers me. I used to think it would be a good thing because career politicians are something that I loath. But the presidents with the least experience were Carter and W. Bush. Just look how amazing those guys turned out to be.

Obama's comment about raising capital gains taxes for "fairness" really bothers me. Am I the only one who was told, "Life is not fair, and you'd better get used to it!" when I was 5 years old?

If Obama does win, I hope the Republicans take it as a sign to go back to being...*GASP*....conservative.

 

[mshan]

Popular vote doesn't really matter; it's state by state electoral math:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

I read a recent article where election projections based upon economic climate projected Obama garning 52 - 55% of vote, and only reason it wasn't a landslide is that the economy as a whole is only in a borderline / mild recession, vs. much more pronounced economic downturn. If you google "The Poblano Effect", you can see theoretical projections where a 5.5% popular vote margin could translate into over 350 electoral votes.

I think a lot of people see McCain as the "maverick" he used to be; not the scarily stupid man he truly is. George W. Bush is idealogically blind and intellectually lazy, but he is not an inherently stupid man.

As reflected by his numerous gaffes, McCain just plain doesn't have command of the subject material necessarily to make smart and truly informed decisions as commander in chief.

 

[Double Trouble]

By all accounts Obama should be leading by a landslide considering the "perfect storm" that the republicans face, most of which is by their own doing over the past 8 years. Had the democrats put up a nominee that had some experience, any kind of track record, any kind of accomplishments, that was not a socialist, the election would have been a mere formality. Since they didn't, it's still very close.

The fact that Obama is black definitely plays into it, though I wonder if that aspect is getting overplayed in terms of significance. I'll take myself as an example, I don't like McCain, but I won't vote for a socialist who has close ties with crazy racists. It's not because of his race that I'm not voting for him, but that's how the press seems to want to portray it.

 

[Gonad the Barbarian]

A lot of old white southern Democrats won't vote for him because he's black. If he loses this election it's because of them. Old-school blanket racism is dying off, but it has at least one more generation to go.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: JEDI
CNN

-Democrat Barack Obama enjoys strong media coverage, turnout, fundraising.
- Republican John McCain faces uphill battle, given unpopularity of George W. Bush.
- polls still give the lead to Obama but even they routinely give him only a few percentage points and none puts him above 50 per cent

Reason why it's so close:

McCain may get elected because many voters aren't ready to back Obama.


Unfortunately, the article doesnt explain what they mean by "not ready to back Obama."

being the cynic i am, i read it as not ready to vote black. (it doesnt matter if he's actually 100% black or not. he looks black, and that's all average joe America needs?)

You thoughts?

Oh come on.

States in the southeast vote Obama?

What fantasy dream world are you living in?

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: misle
I don't like McCain, but he'll probably get my vote.

Because you like how the GOP has been running the country?

 

[nageov3t]

even after 8 years of Bush, I think this country is still largely center-right.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: Double Trouble
By all accounts Obama should be leading by a landslide considering the "perfect storm" that the republicans face, most of which is by their own doing over the past 8 years. Had the democrats put up a nominee that had some experience, any kind of track record, any kind of accomplishments, that was not a socialist, the election would have been a mere formality. Since they didn't, it's still very close.

The fact that Obama is black definitely plays into it, though I wonder if that aspect is getting overplayed in terms of significance. I'll take myself as an example, I don't like McCain, but I won't vote for a socialist who has close ties with crazy racists. It's not because of his race that I'm not voting for him, but that's how the press seems to want to portray it.

Did you just copy and paste that from a Republican fundraising ad or something? If you honestly believe what you wrote, do us all a favor and educate yourself on the candidates. In particular, look up the definition of 'socialism'. If you believe Obama is a socialist, then you either know nothing about him or don't understand the meaning of the word.

Lets be honest though, considering how completely you've swallowed the Republican narrative for Obama, there's a very strong likelihood that you were never going to vote for him anyway. You were just looking for convenient excuses to justify a decision you had already made.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: mshan
Popular vote doesn't really matter; it's state by state electoral math:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

I read a recent article where election projections based upon economic climate projected Obama garning 52 - 55% of vote, and only reason it wasn't a landslide is that the economy as a whole is only in a borderline / mild recession, vs. much more pronounced economic downturn. If you google "The Poblano Effect", you can see theoretical projections where a 5.5% popular vote margin could translate into over 350 electoral votes.

I think a lot of people see McCain as the "maverick" he used to be; not the scarily stupid man he truly is. George W. Bush is idealogically blind and intellectually lazy, but he is not an inherently stupid man.

As reflected by his numerous gaffes, McCain just plain doesn't have command of the subject material necessarily to make smart and truly informed decisions as commander in chief.

Another Electoral MAP

If they simply pulled the trigger on the states that will obviously be Red they would have my Map:

Dave's Electoral MAP - Winnar McCain by two states

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: mshan
Popular vote doesn't really matter; it's state by state electoral math:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

I read a recent article where election projections based upon economic climate projected Obama garning 52 - 55% of vote, and only reason it wasn't a landslide is that the economy as a whole is only in a borderline / mild recession, vs. much more pronounced economic downturn. If you google "The Poblano Effect", you can see theoretical projections where a 5.5% popular vote margin could translate into over 350 electoral votes.

I think a lot of people see McCain as the "maverick" he used to be; not the scarily stupid man he truly is. George W. Bush is idealogically blind and intellectually lazy, but he is not an inherently stupid man.

As reflected by his numerous gaffes, McCain just plain doesn't have command of the subject material necessarily to make smart and truly informed decisions as commander in chief.

Another Electoral MAP

If they simply pulled the trigger on the states that will obviously be Red they would have my Map:

Dave's Electoral MAP - Winnar McCain by two states

You have McCain winning Hawaii?

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: mshan
Popular vote doesn't really matter; it's state by state electoral math:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

I read a recent article where election projections based upon economic climate projected Obama garning 52 - 55% of vote, and only reason it wasn't a landslide is that the economy as a whole is only in a borderline / mild recession, vs. much more pronounced economic downturn. If you google "The Poblano Effect", you can see theoretical projections where a 5.5% popular vote margin could translate into over 350 electoral votes.

I think a lot of people see McCain as the "maverick" he used to be; not the scarily stupid man he truly is. George W. Bush is idealogically blind and intellectually lazy, but he is not an inherently stupid man.

As reflected by his numerous gaffes, McCain just plain doesn't have command of the subject material necessarily to make smart and truly informed decisions as commander in chief.

Another Electoral MAP

If they simply pulled the trigger on the states that will obviously be Red they would have my Map:

Dave's Electoral MAP - Winnar McCain by two states

You have McCain winning Hawaii?

Yes, very strong Corporate and Church blocks.

 

[MagicConch]

Originally posted by: loki8481
even after 8 years of Bush, I think this country is still largely center-right.

I think it's more that since 1980 America associates Republicans with money for nothing and chicks for free. Now they are confused b/c we have all of Washington committed to fiscal irresponsibility.

 

[Tab]

Originally posted by: loki8481
even after 8 years of Bush, I think this country is still largely center-right.

Personally, I agree with this - much of the United States is largely conservative espically when it comes to social issues - gay marriage, sex in the media, religion, etc.

 

[mshan]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...im-not-chuck-todd.html

 

[BoomerD]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: mshan
Popular vote doesn't really matter; it's state by state electoral math:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

I read a recent article where election projections based upon economic climate projected Obama garning 52 - 55% of vote, and only reason it wasn't a landslide is that the economy as a whole is only in a borderline / mild recession, vs. much more pronounced economic downturn. If you google "The Poblano Effect", you can see theoretical projections where a 5.5% popular vote margin could translate into over 350 electoral votes.

I think a lot of people see McCain as the "maverick" he used to be; not the scarily stupid man he truly is. George W. Bush is idealogically blind and intellectually lazy, but he is not an inherently stupid man.

As reflected by his numerous gaffes, McCain just plain doesn't have command of the subject material necessarily to make smart and truly informed decisions as commander in chief.

Another Electoral MAP

If they simply pulled the trigger on the states that will obviously be Red they would have my Map:

Dave's Electoral MAP - Winnar McCain by two states

You have McCain winning Hawaii?

Yes, very strong Corporate and Church blocks.

I'd be VERY surprised if McSame won Hawaii. In spite of electing a Republican governor, (for only the 2nd time since they became a state) the state should be very solidly in the blue column.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: mshan
Popular vote doesn't really matter; it's state by state electoral math:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

I read a recent article where election projections based upon economic climate projected Obama garning 52 - 55% of vote, and only reason it wasn't a landslide is that the economy as a whole is only in a borderline / mild recession, vs. much more pronounced economic downturn. If you google "The Poblano Effect", you can see theoretical projections where a 5.5% popular vote margin could translate into over 350 electoral votes.

I think a lot of people see McCain as the "maverick" he used to be; not the scarily stupid man he truly is. George W. Bush is idealogically blind and intellectually lazy, but he is not an inherently stupid man.

As reflected by his numerous gaffes, McCain just plain doesn't have command of the subject material necessarily to make smart and truly informed decisions as commander in chief.

Another Electoral MAP

If they simply pulled the trigger on the states that will obviously be Red they would have my Map:

Dave's Electoral MAP - Winnar McCain by two states

You have McCain winning Hawaii?

Yes, very strong Corporate and Church blocks.

Hahaha, I didn't notice you gave Hawaii to McCain. That's hilarious. Kerry had the lowest margin of victory for a Democratic candidate there in 20 years... at just under 10 points. Hell, even Dukakis won Hawaii.

Your map is crap dude, you don't have the slightest clue what you're talking about. You just like to be deliberately contrary and I think you would be miserable if Obama won because you don't actually care about results, you just want to be able to complain.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: BoomerD

I'd be VERY surprised if McSame won Hawaii. In spite of electing a Republican governor, (for only the 2nd time since they became a state) the state should be very solidly in the blue column.

He won't. There's no chance. That's like saying California is going to vote Republican because we elected Arnold.