Which poll to accurately see the race?

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Without getting into partisan rhetoric, I have a simple, clear question. Which poll should I pay more attention to at RCP, the ones that include Nader and Barr or the ones that do not?
There is a very wide difference between the two.
Currently, Obama has a 4.8 lead (avg) when it's just him and McCain
Including Nader and Barr, it's a 9.4 lead (avg) for Obama.

Clearly that's a significant difference, so, without getting snarky, which one truly is a more accurate representation?
I would lean towards the one including Nader and Barr, due to the fact that people will actually vote for them (however small the numbers), or am I way off base in thinking that?

 

[bl4ckfl4g]

3rd party candidates seem to poll alot higher than they actually perform. I'd go with the polls excluding them.

 

[techs]

First off, I was thinking of posting a thread on realclearpolitics.com. I think that site is used equally by people on both sides of the issues and is as non-partisan a site as I have seen.

That said, I posted a thread asking why we don't see the REAL polls. The ones that include Barr and Nader.

I suspect the reason is that there is no basis to predict what people who poll for 3rd party candidates will actually do with their vote. In the American polling system in order to register your preference you need to say to the pollster who you will vote for, not who you support.

Especially for Barr, there is no statiscal model to determine how many of the people counted as voting for him will actually vote for him, since in every Presidential electin many of the third party supporters say that in order to have their vote 'count' they actually voted for one of the major party candidates.

 

[dmcowen674]

I exclude them

They can only be spoilers

 

[techs]

I really wonder why Barr and Nader didn't have a debate? It would have given both lots of exposure.

 

[TraumaRN]

Originally posted by: Sheik Yerbouti
Without getting into partisan rhetoric, I have a simple, clear question. Which poll should I pay more attention to at RCP, the ones that include Nader and Barr or the ones that do not?
There is a very wide difference between the two.
Currently, Obama has a 4.8 lead (avg) when it's just him and McCain
Including Nader and Barr, it's a 9.4 lead (avg) for Obama.

Clearly that's a significant difference, so, without getting snarky, which one truly is a more accurate representation?
I would lean towards the one including Nader and Barr, due to the fact that people will actually vote for them (however small the numbers), or am I way off base in thinking that?

Are you following the polls on fivethirtyeight.com? I know the site owner is a Dem but I like his breakdown of polls. And at this point they are both fairly good sites. And they both predict right now that Obama will win with roughly 364 electoral votes.

I follow RCP more, but like to read the analysis of polls on 538.

Personally at this point Obama roughly +5 sounds about right. I'm guessing the third party candidates will get roughly 1-1.5% of the vote.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

364 electoral votes is huge. And thanks, I'll keep my focus more on the polls between McCain and Obama, excluding others. Much appreciated.

 

[Thump553]

Originally posted by: techs
I really wonder why Barr and Nader didn't have a debate? It would have given both lots of exposure.

There was supposed to be a four way third party debate but only Nader would commit to going. One of the candidates cancelled out to attend a Black Panter reunion. Third Party debate PS-this link has an annoying popup but I was too lazy to find another source.

 

[Balt]

Originally posted by: DeathBUA

Originally posted by: Sheik Yerbouti
Without getting into partisan rhetoric, I have a simple, clear question. Which poll should I pay more attention to at RCP, the ones that include Nader and Barr or the ones that do not?
There is a very wide difference between the two.
Currently, Obama has a 4.8 lead (avg) when it's just him and McCain
Including Nader and Barr, it's a 9.4 lead (avg) for Obama.

Clearly that's a significant difference, so, without getting snarky, which one truly is a more accurate representation?
I would lean towards the one including Nader and Barr, due to the fact that people will actually vote for them (however small the numbers), or am I way off base in thinking that?

Are you following the polls on fivethirtyeight.com? I know the site owner is a Dem but I like his breakdown of polls. And at this point they are both fairly good sites. And they both predict right now that Obama will win with roughly 364 electoral votes.

I follow RCP more, but like to read the analysis of polls on 538.

Personally at this point Obama roughly +5 sounds about right. I'm guessing the third party candidates will get roughly 1-1.5% of the vote.

That's what I look at. I'm sure some people are put off by his love for Obama, but he gives each poll an objective "weight" which helps separate the good ones from the bad ones. Despite his personal opinions, he doesn't give Obama-favoring polls more weight. Many of the polls that are more favorable to McCain are assigned a higher weight.

I don't trust that his simulations and projections are reliable, but it's a good site for looking at polling data.

 

[shira]

I agree with DeathBUA about FiveThirtyEight.com. Excellent methods and excellent presentation.

 

[techs]

One thing interesting about fivethirtyeight, and I can't find the link, is they actually rate a candidates viablility by a Starbucks to WalMart ratio.
I kid you not.

 

[Stoneburner]

RCP actually has been theorized to have a republican lean. I tend to see alot of obama bashing articles linked there. And Nate Silver basically said they exclude certain polls that give obama large leads while including questionable ones that tend to show a closer election.

I think Pollster.com is good.

 

[OrByte]

The guys are fivethirtyeight have an approach to polls like they are looking at the stock market or baseball statistics. I can appreciate their intense attention to the polling statistics.

They have also said some things about RCP lately that makes me question the objectivity of both sites.

So at least check both of them out and draw your own conclusions.

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: OrByte
The guys are fivethirtyeight have an approach to polls like they are looking at the stock market or baseball statistics. I can appreciate their intense attention to the polling statistics.

They have also said some things about RCP lately that makes me question the objectivity of both sites.

So at least check both of them out and draw your own conclusions.

Nate Silver, the statistician behind 538 predicted before this season started that last year's last place team, Tampa Bay Rays, would win 90 games this year. They just made it to the world series. Political bias or objectivity isn't really relevant to what they do for this election any more than whether or not they are a fan of the Yankees has any effect on their predictions for the next season. He deals in predictions and he's damn good at it.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: jonks

Originally posted by: OrByte
The guys are fivethirtyeight have an approach to polls like they are looking at the stock market or baseball statistics. I can appreciate their intense attention to the polling statistics.

They have also said some things about RCP lately that makes me question the objectivity of both sites.

So at least check both of them out and draw your own conclusions.

Nate Silver, the statistician behind 538 predicted before this season started that last year's last place team, Tampa Bay Rays, would win 90 games this year. They just made it to the world series. Political bias or objectivity isn't really relevant to what they do for this election any more than whether or not they are a fan of the Yankees has any effect on their predictions for the next season. He deals in predictions and he's damn good at it.

I wonder if he's a Bill James disciple?
And interestingly I had said a while back that the parties are now looking at elections using the derivatives approach to votes that Bill James uses to baseball players.
Moneyball was an awesome book.

 

[ShawnD1]

I know this is extremely unscientific, but the site intrade.com is very accurate when it comes to predicting political things. That site correctly predicted every seat in the last senate election as well as Canada's PM. Right now Obama is favored to win at 85%, McCain at 15%.

The more scientific method is called "meta analysis" (google that). Here is the first google result; Obama - 367, McCain - 171.

Originally posted by: techs
One thing interesting about fivethirtyeight, and I can't find the link, is they actually rate a candidates viablility by a Starbucks to WalMart ratio.
I kid you not.

Now this I need to see.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: ShawnD1
I know this is extremely unscientific, but the site intrade.com is very accurate when it comes to predicting political things. That site correctly predicted every seat in the last senate election as well as Canada's PM. Right now Obama is favored to win at 85%, McCain at 15%.

The more scientific method is called "meta analysis" (google that). Here is the first google result; Obama - 367, McCain - 171.

Originally posted by: techs
One thing interesting about fivethirtyeight, and I can't find the link, is they actually rate a candidates viablility by a Starbucks to WalMart ratio.
I kid you not.

Now this I need to see.

I did a quick google and this is what I found:

http://www.dailyyonder.com/wal-mart-starbucks-red-blue

 

[OrByte]

Originally posted by: jonks

Originally posted by: OrByte
The guys are fivethirtyeight have an approach to polls like they are looking at the stock market or baseball statistics. I can appreciate their intense attention to the polling statistics.

They have also said some things about RCP lately that makes me question the objectivity of both sites.

So at least check both of them out and draw your own conclusions.

Nate Silver, the statistician behind 538 predicted before this season started that last year's last place team, Tampa Bay Rays, would win 90 games this year. They just made it to the world series. Political bias or objectivity isn't really relevant to what they do for this election any more than whether or not they are a fan of the Yankees has any effect on their predictions for the next season. He deals in predictions and he's damn good at it.

Very interesting and impressive. I hate to rely too heavily on one source, that's just the cynic in me I guess. I frequent fivethirtyeight, RCP, and electoral vote. The last one, mainly for the written analysis of the current election events. I find I agree with their point of view more often than not.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Well is seems as though RCP, 538 and e-v.com are valid, (mostly) non-partisan sites to obtain polling info, as well as the electoral vote. And electoral-vote.com has Obama crushing McCain 364 to 171. That's staggering to me, that's not 1 state, hell, it's not even 3 BIG states, if this is accurate, it's over. I will vote for Obama, I planned on it as soon as he became the choice, and will do it proudly.
I hope that the Obama supporters/voters do not get cocky or complacent, get your ass to the polls and vote. The wider the margin of victory, the more political capital the president takes into the white house.
I remember dumbya saying he had loads of political capital, he barely won the second one, and technically lost the 1st one. I think his political capital ended years ago.
Vote, remember 2000 and 2004, nothing, absolutely nothing is for certain.
And remember when you do go vote for Obama, you're a part of history by your choice.

Oh and for some reason, they block all the graphics on the 538 page here at work, are they questionable or is work being stuffy?

 

[Farang]

Not sure if this was mentioned but the +9.3 polls are old. You've got two from 10/3-10/5 and the rest from 10/13. Definitely just use the normal trackers they are updated daily.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: Farang
Not sure if this was mentioned but the +9.3 polls are old. You've got two from 10/3-10/5 and the rest from 10/13. Definitely just use the normal trackers they are updated daily.

Importantly, as of, I believe, Oct 13(?), they stopped including polls that were in any way sponsered by a political party.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Per the RCP website:
(Starting October 11 partisan affiliated polls will not be added to the RCP Poll Averages)

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: OrByte
The guys are fivethirtyeight have an approach to polls like they are looking at the stock market or baseball statistics. I can appreciate their intense attention to the polling statistics.

They have also said some things about RCP lately that makes me question the objectivity of both sites.

So at least check both of them out and draw your own conclusions.

538 is definitely in the tank for Obama and that is why it is so popular, Nate provides great analysis but answers the questions an Obama supporter would want to know and tries to put things in perspective if things aren't going good for his campaign. I don't think it interferes with Nate's analysis, though. He probably has a lot riding on how accurate his predictions end up being.

 

[jonks]

FYI, last week's NY Mag did a piece on Nate:

http://nymag.com/news/features/51170/