I voted for million dollar baby but as I was thinking about my reasoning I forgot a key event. Anyway here was my original reasoning: the academy never gives scorcese movies as much credit as they might deserve. I think it has to do with the fear that if they always nominate his movies, then he will have too many awards or something. He's basically cursed.
Therefore million dollar baby, with sideways a potential dark horse.
However, upon further review I remembered all of the reversals that happened lately, so I am now worried that it will win best picture.