where will housing market be in 2013/2014?

[mizzou]

Wheredo you think housing marketwill be in 2013/2014? Nationally speaking.

Thats probably around the time ill sell my po dunk ranch house

 

[Possessed Freak]

It's got to be better for sellers than it is now.

 

[mizzou]

It's got to be better for sellers than it is now.

Ill be planning forworst casescenario which is "same", but iif it worsens ill be in a big unwanted mess

 

[Gibson486]

can't be any worse than it is now....if it is, this country will be beyond f'd at that point.

 

[rcpratt]

Can't be any worse. Hopefully I can buy a house before then.

 

[BurnItDwn]

Ehh, I think the avg house will sit on the market less, and there will be less vacant properties, but, I'm not under the illusion that prices will have recovered much, if at all.

House that was 300K in 2007 or 2008, and is now 200K in 2010, will probably be 180-220K in 2013/2014. Just won't sit on the market for 300 days before it gets sold...

 

[mrCide]

I don't think we'll see any major changes until 2015-2018 at the minimum.

 

[joesmoke]

extrapolation of current data suggest the housing market will be in or near Sheboygan at that time

 

[AyashiKaibutsu]

There won't be a housing market by then

 

[mshan]

I would guess slightly better because the downward pull of so many foreclosures may be less then.

New York Times Rent vs. Buy article said it took 10 years after last housing crash in 1980s for prices to reach nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) peak prices again.

Good, coarse rule of thumb I saw was to take 2003 prices and adjust upwards for inflation.

 

[AstroManLuca]

Might be slightly better, but not by much. I think this whole crisis has given would-be home buyers a huge wake up call. There have to be a lot of people now who are evaluating whether they want to ever mess with owning a home. I am not dead set for or against owning a home, but the last couple years have made me seriously question whether I ever even want to pursue home ownership.

It's no longer a reasonably attainable goal for most people. Wages haven't risen much in the last several decades but home prices and pretty much every other expense has shot through the roof. Simply getting an education, owning a car, and keeping your debt under control are difficult enough.

The point is that homes (and most other things) have been severely over valued for quite some time and it could take decades for prices to climb up again. Hence the term "bubble."

 

[DesiPower]

Lets see... the world ends in 2012... so... either water or in vapors?

 

[nageov3t]

Housing Fades as a Means to Build Wealth

 

[Slew Foot]

Must suck to live in a shitty part of the country where no one wants to live and the only job is begging Obama for table scraps. It takes about a week for any house thats not cockroach infested to sell around here, usually for full asking price.

 

[BoberFett]

Interest rates likely be soaring by then, so even if prices stabilize somewhat, the inability to afford a loan will stagnate the market.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Homes need to be priced in the $100,000 price range again or you can just fuggeda aboutit. People arent impressed anymore with your stupid McMansion. Get over yourself or pay the price.

 

[Slew Foot]

Homes need to be priced in the $1,000,000 price range again or you can just fuggeda aboutit. People arent impressed anymore with your stupid McMansion. Get over yourself or pay the price.

Fixed for California

 

[AstroManLuca]

Homes need to be priced in the $100,000 price range again or you can just fuggeda aboutit. People arent impressed anymore with your stupid McMansion. Get over yourself or pay the price.

Agreed. The housing crisis has turned a lot of people into "cheap/small house" believers. There are still tons of existing big houses around (and they're selling for a fraction of what they cost to build), but I think any recovery in the housing market is going to involve a move towards smaller, smarter houses.

Look at how SUVs have fallen out of favor. A McMansion is the house equivalent of a Suburban, and now everyone wants a Prius.

 

[PrinceofWands]

Depends how you define better or worse. For example, I think prices will be lower, which I view as good, but many people see as bad. I think there'll be more on the market, which again could be good or bad, depending on your warrants.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Agreed. The housing crisis has turned a lot of people into "cheap/small house" believers. There are still tons of existing big houses around (and they're selling for a fraction of what they cost to build), but I think any recovery in the housing market is going to involve a move towards smaller, smarter houses.

Look at how SUVs have fallen out of favor. A McMansion is the house equivalent of a Suburban, and now everyone wants a Prius.

Affordable effecient housing is what should be built now. Otherwise, why are homes being built at all? Hello! Housing glut!

People wine and moan about new home construction plunging to new lows, blah, blah, sign of the economy. What? We have to keep building throw away homes for the throw away generation forever? Im sick of it.

 

[mcmilljb]

Affordable effecient housing is what should be built now. Otherwise, why are homes being built at all? Hello! Housing glut!

People wine and moan about new home construction plunging to new lows, blah, blah, sign of the economy. What? We have to keep building throw away homes for the throw away generation forever? Im sick of it.

Tell that to people in Congress who thought everyone should be able to own any house. They refused to put real restrictions on lenders, and this is what we get. It helped generate fake jobs which helped them stay in office. Plus it helped pump up property values that are now going to have to be reassessed to a lower level. That's going to hurt local governments' revenue which depend on it to function.

 

[spidey07]

It will be back to normal. People are still buying big houses, they're just getting good deals right now. The tax credits pushed up demand and now there is a glut of sellers with much fewer buyers. And as prices keep dropping more buyers are holding out to see "just how low the prices are going to get". What that is going to do is reach a breaking point where sellers simply can't go any lower and you'll have a huge supply of buyers. THAT's when prices will skyrocket again and it will happen within the next 18 months (if not by next spring/summer) because rates will go up within that time frame.

At these prices and rates one would be a fool not to buy the biggest and best house you can reasonably afford because we're never going to see something like this opportunity in our lifetimes. Prices low, rates stupid low.

 

[mcmilljb]

Housing Fades as a Means to Build Wealth

Dumb is still dumb.

In an annual survey conducted by the economists Robert J. Shiller and Karl E. Case, hundreds of new owners in four communities — Alameda County near San Francisco, Boston, Orange County south of Los Angeles, and Milwaukee — once again said they believed prices would rise about 10 percent a year for the next decade.

With minor swings in sentiment, the latest results reflect what new buyers always seem to feel. At the boom’s peak in 2005, they said prices would go up. When the market was sliding in 2008, they still said prices would go up.

 

[preslove]

Must suck to live in a shitty part of the country where no one wants to live and the only job is begging Obama for table scraps. It takes about a week for any house thats not cockroach infested to sell around here, usually for full asking price.

uh... the places affected worst by this crisis are places like Fort Myers, FL, Las Vegas, the outer reaches of SOCAL, and others that saw HUGE increases in housing prices in the past 10 years. The boomed fueled a ton of speculative housing developments that are now sitting vacant. Those "shitty part(s) of the country where no one wants to live" never saw a major housing boom, anyway, so their housing markets haven't really changed.

 

[child of wonder]

It will probably stay about the same. The market has normalized into what prices probably should have been. Thing will actually go backwards a bit when you consider inflation, but (I hope) they don't get worse.