The Nvidia card can only be sold at $400-500 if it significantly outperforms the Radeon 9700 (assuming Ati gets all driver issues fixed by then).
At the moment Nvidia plans to release NV30 before/around Christmas (samples to be availabe for testers in November), the design is done and has been taped out. However, the 13ns process of TSMC remains to be a risk, but I am pretty sure, that big Nvidia is closely monitoring this.
It is difficult to judge all the difficulties Nvidia has to manage, in order to get this card into mass production, therefore I am not saying that december is a sure bet . However we should not forget, that we are talking about the market leader for PC video cards. Delays like the one of the NV30 have also happened to Intel and they are still where they are. For the time being let us enjoy the competition Ati is bringing to the video card market. I really appreciate the new Radeon 9700 and the benefits it brings for us end-users (to all the fanboys out there, even if you do not like the Ati Radeon, at least it made the TI4600 prices decrease massively).
Cheers
Speedy