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When will the US invade Iraq and what will happen? iraqiwar

M

Martin

Lifer
I thought this might be an interesting thread:

Pick a time when you think the US will attack Iraq, then say what you think will happen (how large a force, how long it'll take, anything you think will happen). Then when the time comes, we can do a search for "iraqiwar" and see how right and wrong we were.



I think they'll attack Feb'03, but I don't think the war will be a very short one, perhaps 6 months or so. I also think Bush's approval rating will drop, rather than rise during the war.

 
beginning of next year at the earliest. We are now to close to Ramadan to start a conflict. I think they'll use 150-200k troops and special ops. Iraq will lob scuds are Israel drawing them into the conflict. While Israel is pre-occupied with damage control it will be hit by mass suicide attacks by angry palestinians. Iran will try and undermine our presence by supporting and supplying shi'ite muslims in the south, creating even more trouble. It will be a complete mess.
 
I hope they just assasinate Saddam, creates civil war among his lackeys and then support the most pro-west candidate they can find and roll him into baghdad with the guard of US smart bomb, cruise missile and hourly air raid. I just think its foolish to attack him using ground forces when most of our allies are against it. Now if that can be changed, its a different story.
 
Maybe we should just bomb Canada instead, it's closer and will put up even less of a fight than Iraq did last time around.
 
I accidentally voted for Q4'02, but I actually think it will be Q1'03, probably right in the middle of January (at the start of his 3rd year, just like his dad).
Possible scenarios? We could wipe the floor of the desert with the Iraqi army, just like 11-12 years ago (God, has it been that long? I remember it very clearly), or it could be the start of WWIII. Who knows?
What is virtually certain to happen in the short-term if we invade Iraq? Stocks will take a blow (investor uncertainty), rates will go down (as investors buy bonds), and the price of gas will go up (ME conflict). If the resolution isn't quick and easy like last time, rates will go back up, stocks will take a bigger blow, and the price of gas will go up more, all of which will further weaken the economy. If we kick some serious Iraqi ass (like last time) and we have quick glorious victory, then the economy will improve quickly and dramatically. You wouldn't want to miss that stock market rally! 😉
There are good reasons to go to Iraq and there are bad ones. We might be preventing WWIII by eliminating a madman, or we might be starting it. Or all of this could be a ploy by the oil companies to raise the price of oil. Who knows?
 
May not happen at all untill another terrorist event occurs in the US with similar civillian body count ie.9-11 WTC. Lots of world wide denial about Iraq's intent. And of course the PC types in the US have made a career out of denial. All the world is a theater so lets see what happens when Act 2 opens.
 
because they don't know how long such a complicated plan will take to accomplish and the possible - however temporary - effects on oil
prices on the domestic front, after march or april 2003.

ramadan will have been completed and the winter oil season will be ending. but if the u.s. doesn't care about world opinion, since
they seem to be preparing a unilateral strike, they might not care about universal muslim sensibility either. ramadan be damned then.

as for winter oil prices . . . saudi arabia and kuwait have indicated they will be prepared to make up the small dropoff in iraqi
crude, which appears to be only about 1-1.5 million barrels per day. saudi arabia maintains a daily surplus of 2 million barrels per
day, and that alone should make up the difference.

heck, war can start tomorrow.

 
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