When will AMD's Shanghai CPU come to market?

7beauties

Member
Mar 24, 2008
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I'm contemplating an upgrade of my PC to the AM2/AM2+ platform and intend to purchase 2GB of fast PC8500 DDRII DRAM. I'm leaning towards buying the MSI K9N2 Diamond mobo, but I'm going to wait for the 45nm Phenom - so called Shanghai - to come to market. Does anyone know from the grapevine when Shanghai is available? While I'm at this, is my preliminary choice of motherboard a good one? I'd appreciate whatever advice I can get. Thank you.
 

SlowSpyder

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
17,305
1,002
126
I thought AMD said that they were gong to try and have it out by the end of the year, but I wouldn't be suprised if it didn't show up until early 09. Hopefully for AMD's sake they can get it out sooner then later.
 

Extelleron

Diamond Member
Dec 26, 2005
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As Martimus said, the 45nm desktop parts Deneb and Propus should be out in Q4 of this year.

Deneb = 45nm Quad w/ 6MB L3
Propus = 45nm Quad w/o L3

 

bryanW1995

Lifer
May 22, 2007
11,144
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91
not trying to rain on anybody's parade, but amd has not exactly been completely, um, punctual in their recent cpu releases. It's ok to HOPE for Q4, but PLAN for Q1 or Q2 09. btw, in all fairness intel has sucked pretty badly with keeping their recent releases at the original projection, too, though some of that was certainly in response to the lack of competition from amd.
 

Extelleron

Diamond Member
Dec 26, 2005
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Originally posted by: bryanW1995
not trying to rain on anybody's parade, but amd has not exactly been completely, um, punctual in their recent cpu releases. It's ok to HOPE for Q4, but PLAN for Q1 or Q2 09. btw, in all fairness intel has sucked pretty badly with keeping their recent releases at the original projection, too, though some of that was certainly in response to the lack of competition from amd.

Well traditionally that is true, but I don't think AMD has a choice right now but to meet the Q4 deadline and everything so far shows that they are meeting that deadline.

Working 45nm Shanghai and Deneb CPUs were shown over a month ago and it looks like AMD is on track for ramping 45nm product in late summer and releasing products in Q4. This has been mentioned in the past and is still the message today, in the Q&A session of AMD's Q1 '08 conference they mentioned that 45nm was ramping in summer & availability would be in Q4.

 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,110
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Originally posted by: Extelleron
Originally posted by: bryanW1995
not trying to rain on anybody's parade, but amd has not exactly been completely, um, punctual in their recent cpu releases. It's ok to HOPE for Q4, but PLAN for Q1 or Q2 09. btw, in all fairness intel has sucked pretty badly with keeping their recent releases at the original projection, too, though some of that was certainly in response to the lack of competition from amd.

Well traditionally that is true, but I don't think AMD has a choice right now but to meet the Q4 deadline and everything so far shows that they are meeting that deadline.

Working 45nm Shanghai and Deneb CPUs were shown over a month ago and it looks like AMD is on track for ramping 45nm product in late summer and releasing products in Q4. This has been mentioned in the past and is still the message today, in the Q&A session of AMD's Q1 '08 conference they mentioned that 45nm was ramping in summer & availability would be in Q4.

Well that will be nice if by Nov 2008 AMD finally catches up to the IPC, raw-clockspeed, and power consumption of Intel's first Kentsfield quads from Nov 2006.

And no doubt the shareholders better be damned appreciative and thankful of this superb leadership. The more time passes the more I begin to finally realize why Jerry Sanders chose Ruiz as his successor, they do kinda treat the company and its shareholders in similiar "me-first" CEO mentality.

I wonder what the chances are of Hector being in that 10% of people deemed "non-essential to AMD's core business"...or rather I mean to say I wonder what the chances would be if it were voted on by the shareholders. ;)
 

Kuzi

Senior member
Sep 16, 2007
572
0
0
Originally posted by: Extelleron
Well traditionally that is true, but I don't think AMD has a choice right now but to meet the Q4 deadline and everything so far shows that they are meeting that deadline.

Working 45nm Shanghai and Deneb CPUs were shown over a month ago and it looks like AMD is on track for ramping 45nm product in late summer and releasing products in Q4. This has been mentioned in the past and is still the message today, in the Q&A session of AMD's Q1 '08 conference they mentioned that 45nm was ramping in summer & availability would be in Q4.

I agree, you know AMD faced many problems last year with Barcelona/Phenom and thats why it was delayed so much. But these problems are fixed now, and Shanghai from what we know is a die shrink with larger L3 cache and minor tweaks. So they shouldn't face many problems as they are already fixed.

My guess is if everything goes well AMD will release Shanghai around Oct/Nov time frame, but probably not in high quantities until Q1 '09.

I want to get one of these babies too, they better OC better than Phenom though :)
 

Extelleron

Diamond Member
Dec 26, 2005
3,127
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Originally posted by: Idontcare
Originally posted by: Extelleron
Originally posted by: bryanW1995
not trying to rain on anybody's parade, but amd has not exactly been completely, um, punctual in their recent cpu releases. It's ok to HOPE for Q4, but PLAN for Q1 or Q2 09. btw, in all fairness intel has sucked pretty badly with keeping their recent releases at the original projection, too, though some of that was certainly in response to the lack of competition from amd.

Well traditionally that is true, but I don't think AMD has a choice right now but to meet the Q4 deadline and everything so far shows that they are meeting that deadline.

Working 45nm Shanghai and Deneb CPUs were shown over a month ago and it looks like AMD is on track for ramping 45nm product in late summer and releasing products in Q4. This has been mentioned in the past and is still the message today, in the Q&A session of AMD's Q1 '08 conference they mentioned that 45nm was ramping in summer & availability would be in Q4.

Well that will be nice if by Nov 2008 AMD finally catches up to the IPC, raw-clockspeed, and power consumption of Intel's first Kentsfield quads from Nov 2006.

And no doubt the shareholders better be damned appreciative and thankful of this superb leadership. The more time passes the more I begin to finally realize why Jerry Sanders chose Ruiz as his successor, they do kinda treat the company and its shareholders in similiar "me-first" CEO mentality.

I wonder what the chances are of Hector being in that 10% of people deemed "non-essential to AMD's core business"...or rather I mean to say I wonder what the chances would be if it were voted on by the shareholders. ;)

Should Shanghai provide the 10-20% performance increase rumored (Anandtech mentioned 15% in the 9850 review) then it would be competitive in per-clock performance w/ Intel's Penryn 45nm processors. Power consumption will likely be another story, unless AMD somehow pulls a miracle.

As for competing with Nehalem... AMD needs to get significant volume of 45nm in late 2008 so they can compete in the non-extreme market for a little while. Once Nehalem comes out, it is going to be much faster than Shanghai. Of course competing w/ Nehalem is what Bulldozer is for, but when that is out 32nm Nehalem will be on the table. That is really the problem with AMD; their similar offerings are competitive with Intel's, but AMD usually comes about a year later than Intel.




 

Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
10,140
819
126
Originally posted by: RiverRicer
If one can believe Fudo.........

AMD 45nm

Which you shouldn't, becuase they misquoted Dirk Meyer. At no time did he say we should see volume product in Q4.

He said AMD would ship volume product in Q4. Nevermind that they never said what "volume" shipping is (1,000 chips could be a "volume" shipment), shipping is not the same as seeing the available in the channel.

Think of it like the 45nm Intel chips. Intel is shipping tens of thousands of them every day, but they are still hard to get a hold of.

 

imported_Jacky

Junior Member
Apr 18, 2008
1
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just my 2 cents...

I wouldn't hold my breath, considering that Intel had Penryn samples in Q4'06, Penryn booted 4 different OSs end of Jan and was launched end of Nov (?)/Q4'07 and volume production started in Q1'08.
Penryn also was just a die shrink, bringing ~10% improvements across the board, using advanced high-k/metal gates 45nm.

So we shouldn't expect 15% performance improvements, <10months validation time and a mature launch all at the same time on 45nm SOI w/o high-k/metal gates, otherwise we may very well be disappointed again. And considering AMD's track record, well...

If we applied Intel's almost flawless execution to AMD's K10, we could expect a launch sometime in Jan/Feb 2008 and volume later on. However, AMD in deep financial trouble, will probably try to shorten validation time as much as possible.. so we will either get:
a. buggy products again (basically like selling ES-chips)
b. paper launch
c. both
 

v8envy

Platinum Member
Sep 7, 2002
2,720
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Good points, but it's entirely possible AMD could run their cache at a higher clock rate (ideally synchronous with the core clock). That 1800 mhz cache is quite a limiter on performance right now. I could see 15%+ improvement over current chips if that issue got resolved.

Selling ES chips is fine by me -- the early adopters and average consumers can beta test, and the rest of us can just wait for the real release. More money in AMD's pockets is a good thing for us all.
 

Extelleron

Diamond Member
Dec 26, 2005
3,127
0
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Originally posted by: Jacky
just my 2 cents...

I wouldn't hold my breath, considering that Intel had Penryn samples in Q4'06, Penryn booted 4 different OSs end of Jan and was launched end of Nov (?)/Q4'07 and volume production started in Q1'08.
Penryn also was just a die shrink, bringing ~10% improvements across the board, using advanced high-k/metal gates 45nm.

So we shouldn't expect 15% performance improvements, <10months validation time and a mature launch all at the same time on 45nm SOI w/o high-k/metal gates, otherwise we may very well be disappointed again. And considering AMD's track record, well...

If we applied Intel's almost flawless execution to AMD's K10, we could expect a launch sometime in Jan/Feb 2008 and volume later on. However, AMD in deep financial trouble, will probably try to shorten validation time as much as possible.. so we will either get:
a. buggy products again (basically like selling ES-chips)
b. paper launch
c. both

In terms of performance per clock improvements, we know:

-Deneb will have 3x the L3 cache of Agena, 6MB vs 2MB
-There will be some minor tweaks to the core

I'm also speculating that AMD will increase the frequency of the L3/NB in relation to the processor, which would improve performance by a good 5% in many applications. I don't think a 15% improvement is unrealistic given the data we have.

As for the timeframe, I don't know if anyone can trust AMD anymore, but they have met their deadlines lately. Phenom/Opteron B3 came in late Q1 just like it was supposed to, and up till now AMD is where they said they would be at this time.
 

bryanW1995

Lifer
May 22, 2007
11,144
32
91
Originally posted by: Phynaz
Originally posted by: RiverRicer
If one can believe Fudo.........

AMD 45nm

Which you shouldn't, becuase they misquoted Dirk Meyer. At no time did he say we should see volume product in Q4.

He said AMD would ship volume product in Q4. Nevermind that they never said what "volume" shipping is (1,000 chips could be a "volume" shipment), shipping is not the same as seeing the available in the channel.

Think of it like the 45nm Intel chips. Intel is shipping tens of thousands of them every day, but they are still hard to get a hold of.

hey, Fuad never misquotes anybody! He just makes stuff up. He's very knowledgeable about the tech industry, it's only taken him 15 years to find out that jenson huang is ceo of nvidia... :confused:
 

hokahknow

Senior member
Apr 23, 2001
308
0
0
The last Anand article about the phenoms says:

"AMD is still on track to begin shipping its first 45nm Phenom processors (Deneb core) by the end of this year and it doesn't make sense to waste time and resources respinning a 65nm Phenom, when presumably these clock speed issues are addressed at 45nm".

He thinks these will be runing about 3ghz. I want a Phenom, but not sure how long I want to wait.
 

bryanW1995

Lifer
May 22, 2007
11,144
32
91
yes, didn't they mention something last year about running 65nm phenoms at 3.0ghz, too? and shipping in volume in q3 07???
 

Phynaz

Lifer
Mar 13, 2006
10,140
819
126
Yes, and please define what "in volume" means.

A numerical range of number of chips would be fine.
 

Viditor

Diamond Member
Oct 25, 1999
3,290
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Originally posted by: bryanW1995
yes, didn't they mention something last year about running 65nm phenoms at 3.0ghz, too? and shipping in volume in q3 07???

They also said that the screwups on the 65nm Barcelonas have saved them from having any problems on the 45nm Barcelonas (they're almost the same design). They are experiencing record yields on 45nm test runs, and will begin production runs at fully mature yields.
 

dmens

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2005
2,275
965
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Originally posted by: Viditor
They also said that the screwups on the 65nm Barcelonas have saved them from having any problems on the 45nm Barcelonas (they're almost the same design). They are experiencing record yields on 45nm test runs, and will begin production runs at fully mature yields.

Design problems on 65nm barcelonas somehow fixed yields on 45nm shrinks? Epic lulz.
 

Viditor

Diamond Member
Oct 25, 1999
3,290
0
0
Originally posted by: dmens
Originally posted by: Viditor
They also said that the screwups on the 65nm Barcelonas have saved them from having any problems on the 45nm Barcelonas (they're almost the same design). They are experiencing record yields on 45nm test runs, and will begin production runs at fully mature yields.

Design problems on 65nm barcelonas somehow fixed yields on 45nm shrinks? Epic lulz.

Ummm...that's not what I said.
Using numbers, and explaining in much more detail for you:

1. Design problems on 65nm Barcelona have allowed AMD to produce 45nm Shanghai without design problems...so no delays will incure as they did with AMD's first attempt at this architecture.

2. In addition to that, they are experiencing record yields so volume production means volume production and they will begin at mature yields.
 

KingstonU

Golden Member
Dec 26, 2006
1,405
16
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Originally posted by: Extelleron

As for competing with Nehalem... AMD needs to get significant volume of 45nm in late 2008 so they can compete in the non-extreme market for a little while. Once Nehalem comes out, it is going to be much faster than Shanghai. Of course competing w/ Nehalem is what Bulldozer is for, but when that is out 32nm Nehalem will be on the table. That is really the problem with AMD; their similar offerings are competitive with Intel's, but AMD usually comes about a year later than Intel.

QFT