When will AMD take the crown again?

[bX510]

What do u guys think?

 

[v8envy]

Next shot at the value crown will be around January, with the 45nm Phenoms. IMO they have a good shot at becoming competitive with the Yorkfield CPUs at the budget and midrange if the Deneb CPUs overclock well and keep power consumption in check. Intel is not leaving much room in their naming scheme for higher clocked Yorkie SKUs, and the lower end Bloomfield SKUs look to be comprable to the higher end Yorkfields. Which means AMD has the opportunity to take the value crown in the budget and lower mainstream segments.

The next shot at the high end is with Bulldozer, some time in 2009 or 2010.

 

[nerp]

Mebbe. Dunno. Hmmmm. Ehhh.

(just trying to follow your lead here)

 

[ultimahwhat]

i don't know if i really like this regal analogy. i see amd and intel more as entities who are peddling their individual wares based on performance and price. some of it is merit-based, and that just doesn't really jive with kings and queens, to me at least.

i guess what i'm trying to get at is that i'd like to see this sort of topic rephrased within the context of a closer analogy, e.g. "When will AMD be the master pimp again?"

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: bX510
What do u guys think?

Well last time they did it they had help from Intel's top man sleeping at the helm while letting marketing studies decide what the architecture guys were going to build.

So my best guess is that if it's going to happen then it won't happen until Otellini leaves (because he isn't the kind of guy to sleep at the helm like Barret did) and it will require his successor to be more Barret'esque and less Otellini'like.

Best thing for AMD and its shareholders would be if Otellini picks Hector Ruiz for the job

But as far as the current footrace is concerned it just won't happen, can't happen.

Innovation takes money, and in the semiconductor world it takes billions upon billions which AMD simply doesn't have (unless they win that anti-trust case...) But if your competitor stops innovating, or even turns back the wheel a notch or two, then even a broke-ass company like AMD can limp ahead of them and win that two-man race.

 

[myocardia]

They've already taken the crown. Where have you been?

 

[v8envy]

Originally posted by: Idontcare
Innovation takes money, and in the semiconductor world it takes billions upon billions which AMD simply doesn't have (unless they win that anti-trust case...) But if your competitor stops innovating, or even turns back the wheel a notch or two, then even a broke-ass company like AMD can limp ahead of them and win that two-man race.

Technically it's not a two-man race. There's Sun, IBM, Motorola and possibly others interested in a slice of the x86 CPU pie. Just because they've failed in the distant, long forgotten by stockholders past doesn't mean they won't try and try again if market conditions look favorable (read: Intel the only player, getting 80%+ margins, etc).

Also-rans like VIA are still in the picture.

 

[OCGuy]

Originally posted by: myocardia
They've already taken the crown. Where have you been?

 

[myocardia]

Originally posted by: Ocguy31

You weren't aware of the 4870X2's dominance, either? I would think anyone who posts here on a regular basis would have known that a long, long time ago.

 

[OCGuy]

Originally posted by: myocardia

Originally posted by: Ocguy31

You weren't aware of the 4870X2's dominance, either? I would think anyone who posts here on a regular basis would have known that a long, long time ago.

I was referring to the fact that we were talking CPUs (the section we are in), which everyone can take full advantage of. A 4870X2's "dominance" is limited to people with 27 inch + monitors

 

[KingstonU]

Originally posted by: v8envy

The next shot at the high end is with Bulldozer, some time in 2009 or 2010.

Sadly Bulldozer rumors are now putting it in the late 2010 early 2011 time frame. And Fuzion looks to be very low end when it comes out late 2009 early 2010.

 

[taltamir]

When I saw the charts describing larabee and its future the first thing I said "hey, that is fusion"... the second thing I said was "hey this is gonne be here a long time before AMDs fusion"

The thing is:
1. AMD has hemorrhaged money and TALENT (their best people were leaving during hector ruin days, sometimes directly because of him)
2. Intel has multiple teams working on different aspects that can then be put together... Normally a "generation" had one single improvement from AMD and Intel... lately intel has been pushing multiple improvements per generation.
This is kind of how the RV770 got so good, AMD said they just made several teams, each one worked on improving a different aspect of the GPU, and then they put it together, and more then ever before.

 

[myocardia]

Originally posted by: Ocguy31
I was referring to the fact that we were talking CPUs (the section we are in), which everyone can take full advantage of. A 4870X2's "dominance" is limited to people with 27 inch + monitors

Oh sure, if you want to get all technical about it, yeah, this is the CPU/Overclocking subsection. I seem to remember someone saying something very funny (to me, at least) around here a few days ago. I'm pretty sure his nick started with Ocguy. BTW, I guess you guys didn't get the point of my first post, which was that the 4870X2 is pretty much the only product where AMD has the lead/will have the lead for a considerable amount of time*. A considerable amount of time, as measured in years.


BTW, when I quoted you, I was trying to goad you into saying:

Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Current sub forum: CPUs and Overclocking.

One could assume that was the processor he was talking about. I mean, to go out on a limb.

http://forums.anandtech.com/me...AR_FORUMVIEWTMP=Linear


edit: *Unless they have another/a few more fast video caeds, of course.

 

[piasabird]

Never.

 

[Martimus]

Just comparing pictures, side by side, the cores for Nehalem have far more logic than the cores for Deneb. I don't take that as a good sign (although it probably doesn't really correlate to anything other than the Intel chip has a lot more logic transistors than AMD). I would guess that Bulldozer would be the next chance at taking the crown. But I have heard things about the performance expectations of that chip that make me question whether AMD is even trying to take back the crown with Bulldozer. I don't remember the quote, but I seem to remember Dirk saying something about being able to meet the low end market with it (like it is supposed to reduce costs enough to be able to be the Walmart of CPU's.) I am probably just mixing things up in my head, so I will stop typing now. (I think I need some more sleep ... zzz...)

edit: Here is the picture - http://chip-architect.com/news/Shanghai_Nehalem.jpg

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: myocardia
BTW, when I quoted you, I was trying to goad you into saying:

Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Current sub forum: CPUs and Overclocking.

One could assume that was the processor he was talking about. I mean, to go out on a limb.

http://forums.anandtech.com/me...AR_FORUMVIEWTMP=Linear

That was one for the record books for sure. Still gives me a chuckle. "I mean, to go out on a limb"...priceless.

 

[KingstonU]

Originally posted by: taltamir
When I saw the charts describing larabee and its future the first thing I said "hey, that is fusion"... the second thing I said was "hey this is gonne be here a long time before AMDs fusion"

Yah It's ironic that AMD brags about a great new concept that they are working on, and from hearing about it Intel decides they need to be copying this idea too and throw their Massive R&D budget at it and actually get to produce and sell it before AMD gets too. Yet it was AMD's idea... crazy...

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: KingstonU

Originally posted by: taltamir
When I saw the charts describing larabee and its future the first thing I said "hey, that is fusion"... the second thing I said was "hey this is gonne be here a long time before AMDs fusion"

Yah It's ironic that AMD brags about a great new concept that they are working on, and from hearing about it Intel decides they need to be copying this idea too and throw their Massive R&D budget at it and actually get to produce and sell it before AMD gets too. Yet it was AMD's idea... crazy...

Didn't Pentium D Extreme beat the X2 to the market?

 

[OCGuy]

I thought it was funny that you brought up GPUs after you quoted me in that other thread, Myo.

I took that bait hook-line-sinker.

 

[taltamir]

and AMD was the first to promote hybrid power... it was supposed to be in the 38xx series... it was dropped, and hasn't reappeared to date. But nvidia has it working... on their latest AMD mobos + 9800 series and the GTX 200 series.

 

[conlan]

It's cyclical, been seeing this for a long time.
ATI/AMD, nVidia, and Intel will continue trying to one up the other with the winner being......US

 

[myocardia]

Originally posted by: Idontcare
That was one for the record books for sure. Still gives me a chuckle. "I mean, to go out on a limb"...priceless.

Want to know how funny I thought it was? I busted out laughing again when I saw it, after tracking that thread down.

Originally posted by: Ocguy31
I thought it was funny that you brought up GPUs after you quoted me in that other thread, Myo.

I took that bait hook-line-sinker.

Sorry, man. I usually try to have a little fun around here, and occasionally, it actually works. I was having fun with you, though, I promise.

 

[harpoon84]

Originally posted by: KingstonU

Originally posted by: v8envy

The next shot at the high end is with Bulldozer, some time in 2009 or 2010.

Sadly Bulldozer rumors are now putting it in the late 2010 early 2011 time frame. And Fuzion looks to be very low end when it comes out late 2009 early 2010.

Which would have it competing against Sandy Bridge (Nehalem's successor). AMD would be trying to kill 2 birds with one stone, I'm sorry but I just don't see that happening with their limited resources.

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: harpoon84

Originally posted by: KingstonU

Originally posted by: v8envy

The next shot at the high end is with Bulldozer, some time in 2009 or 2010.

Sadly Bulldozer rumors are now putting it in the late 2010 early 2011 time frame. And Fuzion looks to be very low end when it comes out late 2009 early 2010.

Which would have it competing against Sandy Bridge (Nehalem's successor). AMD would be trying to kill 2 birds with one stone, I'm sorry but I just don't see that happening with their limited resources.

You mean Westmere? Sandy Bridge is Westmere's successor.

 

[harpoon84]

Yes, that's what I meant, as in the new 'tock' or uarch.