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Discussion when & whither next gen consoles ?

marees

Platinum Member
  1. xbox
    1. series x2
      1. hardware design finalized. ready for large scale manufacture
      2. technically could release sometime in 2027
      3. software show-stoppers
        1. RDNA 5 drivers
        2. FSR 5 software readiness
        3. game readiness for next-gen RDNA RT & PT
        4. Windows 12
        5. directX12 new features (including co-operative vectors)
        6. xbox-windows merger at OS level
        7. xbox app / store full screen experience (for handhelds & TVs)
        8. xbox enhancements for game devs for easier deployment
      4. Hardware config
        1. TSMC 3nm
        2. magnus SoC, AT2 GCD
        3. AT2 = 3x AT4 (~= 3x ps5 pro / 3x 9060xt)
        4. 192bit gddr7
        5. 4 + 8 + 2 cpu config (with a few cores disabled)
        6. NPU with 2 different power & performance modes
        7. priced around $800 to $1200 ??
    2. handheld
      1. hardware
        1. tsmc 3nm
        2. medusa premium soc, AT4 GCD
        3. AT4 ~= ps5 pro / 9060xt at full power consumption
        4. 128 bit lpddr5x on FP10 socket to be shared with medusa point-1
        5. likely CES 2028 release based on past cadence & leaked roadmaps
        6. 4 + 8 + 2 cpu config
        7. NPU ???
        8. price in same range as Asus xbox rog ally / Lenovo legion go+
      2. software
        1. straightforward windows OS but needs new fullscreen xbox app for handhelds
    3. series s2
      1. this is nothing but the handheld apu (medusa premium) in an NUC form like the steam machine & likely to target same budget range as the steam machine
      2. will not officially be called as a series S2 as it is just a windows PC that boots into the xbox launcher. but unofficially this is the series S2
      3. software wise needs the big-screen mode for TVs
  2. PlayStation
    1. PS6 Console
      1. fork of RDNA 5 with "unnecessary" features omitted to save die space
      2. TSMC 3nm
      3. initial target 2027 launch, now likely 2029
      4. priced cheaper than a ps5 pro. main target is to get the $400 ps4/pro owners to upgrade
      5. manufacture likely not started & put on hold
    2. PS6 handheld
      1. targets PS5 games but with a low power mode
      2. supports pssr2
      3. games may need to be patched for next gen upscaling based on FSR 5
      4. can potentially still launch in 2027 as it doesn't need new PS6 games but rather only existing PS5 games
      5. switch 2 power budget & price budget
      6. ps5 low power performance without upscaling. ps5 pro performance with suitable upscaling
 
Launching PS6 handheld sooner can still make sense if supply is limited. PS6 portable die measures only 135 mm². That means the device is cheap to make. It might even make sense to put that ahead of making a standard PS5 model. If Microsoft launches a pricey Xbox Magnus in 2027 and Sony waits another year with an inferior system, the perception gap could matter. The launch timing also affects the hype.

 
what I think:

  1. will PS6 be delayed (due to price) ? — yes Sony as the leading console player has always made for a budget. for example PS4 pro for $400. plus next gen games also seem to be delayed. & $400 PS4 owners unlikely to upgrade if price is high. launch window likely holiday 2028 or H1 2029.
  2. will the PS Handheld be delayed? — no. unlike the console the Handheld doesn’t need PS6 games. it only needs a patch to PS5 games — which Sony already is in the process of enforcing. the budget would be similar to switch 2 budget but Sony really is not constrained by it. budget may not be an issue for the Handheld. launch window likely H2 2027
  3. will xbox magnus (series X2) be delayed — not due to price. but software readiness is a concern. Microsoft is notorious for shipping bugs first followed by the real product. launch window likely from holiday 2027 to anytime in H1 2028
  4. will medusa premium (laptops & series S2 NUCs) be dalayed ? no. AMD to launch SoC in CES 2028 (followed by NUC launch in H1 2028)
  5. will PC Handhelds be delayed ? unlikely. likely launch H1 2028
 
what I think:

  1. will PS6 be delayed (due to price) ? — yes Sony as the leading console player has always made for a budget. for example PS4 pro for $400. plus next gen games also seem to be delayed. & $400 PS4 owners unlikely to upgrade if price is high. launch window likely holiday 2028 or H1 2029.
  2. will the PS Handheld be delayed? — no. unlike the console the Handheld doesn’t need PS6 games. it only needs a patch to PS5 games — which Sony already is in the process of enforcing. the budget would be similar to switch 2 budget but Sony really is not constrained by it. budget may not be an issue for the Handheld. launch window likely H2 2027
  3. will xbox magnus (series X2) be delayed — not due to price. but software readiness is a concern. Microsoft is notorious for shipping bugs first followed by the real product. launch window likely from holiday 2027 to anytime in H1 2028
  4. will medusa premium (laptops & series S2 NUCs) be dalayed ? no. AMD to launch SoC in CES 2028 (followed by NUC launch in H1 2028)
  5. will PC Handhelds be delayed ? unlikely. likely launch H1 2028
so order of launch:

PS handheld (2027) > Xbox Magnus > RDNA 5 > PC Handhelds > series S2 (2028)
 
looks like PlayStation fans are perfectly fine with the postponement to 2029

Is the PlayStation 6 already in trouble? The latest leaks suggest a massive delay for the PS6, pushing the release date all the way to 2029!

 
Team Green's approach to next-gen might actually help them here. We've heard pretty consistently that the next Xbox won't be a traditional console coming in at a lower price point; with other third-party manufacturers potentially taking point in terms of building some of the actual hardware too - like the Asus ROG Xbox Ally. Could this rumoured plan to move away from more mass-market console gaming help Microsoft here?

 
Team Green's approach to next-gen might actually help them here. We've heard pretty consistently that the next Xbox won't be a traditional console coming in at a lower price point; with other third-party manufacturers potentially taking point in terms of building some of the actual hardware too - like the Asus ROG Xbox Ally. Could this rumoured plan to move away from more mass-market console gaming help Microsoft here?

imho, for Microsoft I think the holdup will be software rather than hardware or memory prices

plus as a hyperscaler / azure AI provider, they have full access to all the memory they want
 
should next gen consoles be delayed or launch ASAP ?

imo, this is what I think should happen (but will not happen)

  1. (unofficial) xbox series s2 aka steam machine competitor — MS should release this asap to make the steam machine DoA (as that is horribly VRAM limited). there is no software dependency from MS side as this is just bog standard windows with full screen/big screen mode for xbox app. but significant dependency on AMD to get RDNA 5 drivers ready
  2. xbox series x2 — should release (or reveal/announce) by nov-2026 — the 25th anniversary of xbox. this has significant software dependancy on both MS (windows-xbox integration) & AMD (RDNA 5 drivers)
  3. PS6 handheld — sony should release this as planned in 2027 (maybe take a hit on memory). this doesn’t need new games. just PS5 games with a patch for power saving mode of handheld. probably not too much dependency on AMD software as this is custom hardware for Sony. significant dependency on memory price. sony should go for a combo of
    1. reduce memory specs
    2. absorb margin hit
    3. slightly higher launch price
  4. PS6 console — delay as much as possible. this needs new exclusive games which will take a long time. the delay will also help cool hardware prices
 
It took forever to get people to move on from PS4. Many even still haven't. Node shrinks are also fewer and are no longer getting any cheaper. The PS6 will likely only barely be more powerful than the the ps5 pro and will be hard carried by ai upscaling and frame gen as the horsepower gains just aren't there any more for a normie budget. This is all before ram prices are even taken into account. They should go with 2029 and wait out the ai bubble or at least for manufacturing to compensate.
 
AMD just said that the chip for the next Xbox, codenamed “Magnus” will be ready next year whether or not Microsoft is ready to drop it at that time. We’re also pretty sure AMD is designing a bunch of chips on the same architectures — Zen 6 CPUs and RDNA 5 GPUs — that other PC manufacturers can use to make desktops, laptops, and handheld PCs that might align with Magnus.

From there, rumors and speculation point toward third-party “Xboxes” from maybe Asus, MSI, Lenovo, etc., probably with multiple form factors and price points. If that’s what happens, then, once again, I’m predicting that the next Xbox will basically be a Surface desktop. A Windows equivalent to the Steam Machine.

The Surface laptops are basically reference devices for other Windows laptops. Microsoft doesn’t really care that much about how they sell on their own, they just exist to demonstrate where they’re trying to take Windows next. An “Xbox PC” could be that for a wave of console-style pre-built PCs. Remember the Alienware Alpha? Look at the Framework Desktop.

The Steam Deck had a similar effect on handheld PCs and Linux gaming, now most of the pre-built manufacturers are in that space and we have a bunch of groups pumping up gaming Linux distros. Part of what made those handhelds happen was a lineup of AMD APUs that fit into that form factor and ran modern PC games well enough for small screens.

Comments and leaks from Microsoft and AMD strongly hint that they’re trying to do that again for desktops. Instead of your typical expensive CPU/GPU combo, the third-party “Xboxes” might run on these new APUs with ‘roided-up integrated graphics, which might open up a whole new performance-per-dollar tier for pre-built PCs. The Ryzen AI Max 300 series chips can already just about hit PS5 performance. Imagine what the RDNA 5 version does.

What Does “Sunsetting” Xbox Look Like Anyway?​

Daniel Sims – February 27, 2026

When you think about it, a traditional PlayStation-style console never fit Microsoft. Microsoft is a software and services company. They’ve never been huge on hard consumer products.

A box that does one thing and locks its content to a walled garden was never Microsoft’s style. They had an advantage in those early 360 years because their development environment brought western developers in right when the Japanese developers that made PlayStation what it was were stumbling, which is how they got Gears of War, Oblivion, BioShock, Mass Effect, and Call of Duty 2.

PC is one of the only places where gaming is still growing, so maybe Microsoft thinks that’s where they can grow. At the very least, it might help them get into regions where Xbox and consoles in general have struggled: Eastern Europe, Asia (outside Japan), maybe even China (which is also where a good chunk of the growth is happening). Wrapping console and PC together might also just help Microsoft stand out from Sony and Nintendo.

If pre-built Windows PCs become attractive living-room devices, with or without a flagship “Xbox” leading the way, is that killing Microsoft’s “console” business or just redefining it?

the most likely route forward for Microsoft is subsuming Xbox into PC because it’s the logical way to try to block Valve from potentially doing to Microsoft what Microsoft did to IBM in the 80s. IBM pretty much built the PC paradigm we’re still working with now like 40 years ago, but Microsoft and other companies took it from them by building consumer products people wanted, and now IBM is just an enterprise company now. They don’t make much of anything that directly faces consumers.

Since the iPhone and iPad started the next era of consumer computing, Windows has become a digital pickup truck. People mostly just use it for work… and gaming. The problem is, Valve became the shepherd of PC gaming and now might be taking that away from Microsoft.

SteamOS already runs Windows games through a compatibility layer on the Asus ROG Xbox Ally better than Windows 11 does. If those RDNA 5 “console PCs” come out and run games better on SteamOS or Bazzite than they do on Windows, Microsoft might be cooked. PC game developers already like Steam more than the Windows Store.

 

Opinion: I Wonder if Xbox Helix Will Force Sony to Break Its PS6 Silence

Noisy neighbours
In a poll I published about PS6 late last month, almost 60% of you said you didn’t want it until at least 2029. In fact, an incredible 12% of you said Sony should wait until 2031 or later – five years from now!
Just 11% of our readers said they want the PS6 in 2027
Sony is just on the cusp of rolling out PSSR 2, which looks like it’s going to be a game changer for software performance. Resident Evil Requiem is “head and shoulders” above all other consoles on the supercharged system, which we suppose makes the idea of new hardware less essential.
there’s no real incentive for the firm to talk about what it’s got cooking right now. Marvel’s Wolverine and GTA 6 are going to ensure a huge 2026 for its current console, and by all accounts it’s got a new God of War game and Intergalactic: The Heretic Prophet locked for the next year.
Those four games alone will sustain PS5’s momentum into the next year and beyond.
Microsoft’s biggest issue will be finding a business model that works, which satisfies its reportedly lofty profit targets.
The only conclusion I can come to here is that, even ignoring the ongoing RAM drama, we’re looking at an Xbox “console” that’s potentially double or even triple the price of the PS6.
I’m really curious to see how much Sony pays attention, and whether it coaxes the company to come out and talk more freely about the PS6.

 
Industry analysts expect Sony's next PlayStation and Microsoft's next Xbox to launch with four-figure price tags.

One analyst, Dr. Serkan Toto, told GamesRadar+ that a $999 price tag "for at least one variant of the PS6 is not impossible." Another, Joost van Dreunen, added that "we're quickly moving towards a world in which a $1,000 console will be the norm, and console gaming will become a luxury expenditure."



Michael Pachter Predicts a ‘Smaller’ Gaming Future Saved by Game Streaming​

I think that the solution to that is get rid of consoles and go to streaming games on TVs," Pachter argued



A $1,000 PS6 And Xbox Helix Are Dangerous For The Future Of Gaming​

Console gaming has never been exactly cheap, but there is a limit to how far you can push consumers, and we are there. I have no idea why people would pay $600-$900 for consoles that have been around for 3-6 years after $100-$200 price jumps. And even if it’s new, $ 1,000+ for the next generation is almost an insulting ask.

 

Michael Pachter Predicts a ‘Smaller’ Gaming Future Saved by Game Streaming​

I think that the solution to that is get rid of consoles and go to streaming games on TVs," Pachter argued

If there is one constant in gaming, it's to always bet on the exact opposite of what Michael Pachter says.
 
After a year of tariff woes from Trump and a sweeping memory pricing crisis engendered by AI, consoles are less affordable than they’ve been in many decades. Starting on Thursday, the PlayStation 5 console without a disc drive will start at $600. A version that will let you play physical copies of your games will squeeze you for $650.

PS6 handheld is expected to target price & power usage of Switch 2 — which means around $600

performance when docked could match PS5 after upscaling
native performance
native performance should match or better Xbox series S1

so Sony might prefer to sell PS6 handheld instead of base PS5

 
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