Discussion when & whither next gen consoles ?

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marees

marees

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Apr 28, 2024
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  1. xbox
    1. series x2
      1. hardware design finalized. ready for large scale manufacture
      2. technically could release sometime in 2027
      3. software show-stoppers
        1. RDNA 5 drivers
        2. FSR 5 software readiness
        3. game readiness for next-gen RDNA RT & PT
        4. Windows 12
        5. directX12 new features (including co-operative vectors)
        6. xbox-windows merger at OS level
        7. xbox app / store full screen experience (for handhelds & TVs)
        8. xbox enhancements for game devs for easier deployment
      4. Hardware config
        1. TSMC 3nm
        2. magnus SoC, AT2 GCD
        3. AT2 = 3x AT4 (~= 3x ps5 pro / 3x 9060xt)
        4. 192bit gddr7
        5. 4 + 8 + 2 cpu config (with a few cores disabled)
        6. NPU with 2 different power & performance modes
        7. priced around $800 to $1200 ??
    2. handheld
      1. hardware
        1. tsmc 3nm
        2. medusa premium soc, AT4 GCD
        3. AT4 ~= ps5 pro / 9060xt at full power consumption
        4. 128 bit lpddr5x on FP10 socket to be shared with medusa point-1
        5. likely CES 2028 release based on past cadence & leaked roadmaps
        6. 4 + 8 + 2 cpu config
        7. NPU ???
        8. price in same range as Asus xbox rog ally / Lenovo legion go+
      2. software
        1. straightforward windows OS but needs new fullscreen xbox app for handhelds
    3. series s2
      1. this is nothing but the handheld apu (medusa premium) in an NUC form like the steam machine & likely to target same budget range as the steam machine
      2. will not officially be called as a series S2 as it is just a windows PC that boots into the xbox launcher. but unofficially this is the series S2
      3. software wise needs the big-screen mode for TVs
  2. PlayStation
    1. PS6 Console
      1. fork of RDNA 5 with "unnecessary" features omitted to save die space
      2. TSMC 3nm
      3. initial target 2027 launch, now likely 2029
      4. priced cheaper than a ps5 pro. main target is to get the $400 ps4/pro owners to upgrade
      5. manufacture likely not started & put on hold
    2. PS6 handheld
      1. targets PS5 games but with a low power mode
      2. supports pssr2
      3. games may need to be patched for next gen upscaling based on FSR 5
      4. can potentially still launch in 2027 as it doesn't need new PS6 games but rather only existing PS5 games
      5. switch 2 power budget & price budget
      6. ps5 low power performance without upscaling. ps5 pro performance with suitable upscaling
 
marees

marees

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Launching PS6 handheld sooner can still make sense if supply is limited. PS6 portable die measures only 135 mm². That means the device is cheap to make. It might even make sense to put that ahead of making a standard PS5 model. If Microsoft launches a pricey Xbox Magnus in 2027 and Sony waits another year with an inferior system, the perception gap could matter. The launch timing also affects the hype.

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NVIDIA RTX 6090 Forced Into 2027 Launch by AMD RDNA5 Performance Surge | NoobFeed

Lisa Sue remarked on AMD's fourth-quarter results call, "The development of Microsoft's next-generation Xbox with an AMD semicustom SOC is going well to supp...
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marees

marees

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what I think:

  1. will PS6 be delayed (due to price) ? — yes Sony as the leading console player has always made for a budget. for example PS4 pro for $400. plus next gen games also seem to be delayed. & $400 PS4 owners unlikely to upgrade if price is high. launch window likely holiday 2028 or H1 2029.
  2. will the PS Handheld be delayed? — no. unlike the console the Handheld doesn’t need PS6 games. it only needs a patch to PS5 games — which Sony already is in the process of enforcing. the budget would be similar to switch 2 budget but Sony really is not constrained by it. budget may not be an issue for the Handheld. launch window likely H2 2027
  3. will xbox magnus (series X2) be delayed — not due to price. but software readiness is a concern. Microsoft is notorious for shipping bugs first followed by the real product. launch window likely from holiday 2027 to anytime in H1 2028
  4. will medusa premium (laptops & series S2 NUCs) be dalayed ? no. AMD to launch SoC in CES 2028 (followed by NUC launch in H1 2028)
  5. will PC Handhelds be delayed ? unlikely. likely launch H1 2028
 
marees

marees

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Apr 28, 2024
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marees said:
what I think:

  1. will PS6 be delayed (due to price) ? — yes Sony as the leading console player has always made for a budget. for example PS4 pro for $400. plus next gen games also seem to be delayed. & $400 PS4 owners unlikely to upgrade if price is high. launch window likely holiday 2028 or H1 2029.
  2. will the PS Handheld be delayed? — no. unlike the console the Handheld doesn’t need PS6 games. it only needs a patch to PS5 games — which Sony already is in the process of enforcing. the budget would be similar to switch 2 budget but Sony really is not constrained by it. budget may not be an issue for the Handheld. launch window likely H2 2027
  3. will xbox magnus (series X2) be delayed — not due to price. but software readiness is a concern. Microsoft is notorious for shipping bugs first followed by the real product. launch window likely from holiday 2027 to anytime in H1 2028
  4. will medusa premium (laptops & series S2 NUCs) be dalayed ? no. AMD to launch SoC in CES 2028 (followed by NUC launch in H1 2028)
  5. will PC Handhelds be delayed ? unlikely. likely launch H1 2028
Click to expand...
so order of launch:

PS handheld (2027) > Xbox Magnus > RDNA 5 > PC Handhelds > series S2 (2028)
 
marees

marees

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looks like PlayStation fans are perfectly fine with the postponement to 2029

Is the PlayStation 6 already in trouble? The latest leaks suggest a massive delay for the PS6, pushing the release date all the way to 2029!

 
marees

marees

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marees

marees

Platinum Member
Apr 28, 2024
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Team Green's approach to next-gen might actually help them here. We've heard pretty consistently that the next Xbox won't be a traditional console coming in at a lower price point; with other third-party manufacturers potentially taking point in terms of building some of the actual hardware too - like the Asus ROG Xbox Ally. Could this rumoured plan to move away from more mass-market console gaming help Microsoft here?

www.purexbox.com

New Report On PS6 Delay Throws Next-Gen Timing Into Doubt

Because of, you guessed it, RAM and SSD shortages
www.purexbox.com www.purexbox.com
 
marees

marees

Platinum Member
Apr 28, 2024
2,366
2,967
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marees said:
Team Green's approach to next-gen might actually help them here. We've heard pretty consistently that the next Xbox won't be a traditional console coming in at a lower price point; with other third-party manufacturers potentially taking point in terms of building some of the actual hardware too - like the Asus ROG Xbox Ally. Could this rumoured plan to move away from more mass-market console gaming help Microsoft here?

www.purexbox.com

New Report On PS6 Delay Throws Next-Gen Timing Into Doubt

Because of, you guessed it, RAM and SSD shortages
www.purexbox.com www.purexbox.com
Click to expand...
imho, for Microsoft I think the holdup will be software rather than hardware or memory prices

plus as a hyperscaler / azure AI provider, they have full access to all the memory they want
 
marees

marees

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Apr 28, 2024
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marees said:
should next gen consoles be delayed or launch ASAP ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/2025856914190401971
Click to expand...
imo, this is what I think should happen (but will not happen)

  1. (unofficial) xbox series s2 aka steam machine competitor — MS should release this asap to make the steam machine DoA (as that is horribly VRAM limited). there is no software dependency from MS side as this is just bog standard windows with full screen/big screen mode for xbox app. but significant dependency on AMD to get RDNA 5 drivers ready
  2. xbox series x2 — should release (or reveal/announce) by nov-2026 — the 25th anniversary of xbox. this has significant software dependancy on both MS (windows-xbox integration) & AMD (RDNA 5 drivers)
  3. PS6 handheld — sony should release this as planned in 2027 (maybe take a hit on memory). this doesn’t need new games. just PS5 games with a patch for power saving mode of handheld. probably not too much dependency on AMD software as this is custom hardware for Sony. significant dependency on memory price. sony should go for a combo of
    1. reduce memory specs
    2. absorb margin hit
    3. slightly higher launch price
  4. PS6 console — delay as much as possible. this needs new exclusive games which will take a long time. the delay will also help cool hardware prices
 
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