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when is the economy going to get better?
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Scarpozzi
Lifer
What difference does it make if it gets better or worse? Honestly, the natural cycle of things is that big business and government both naurally grow beyond what can be supported when their 'projections' are not met. Few CFOs and advisors have the balls to make cuts before they ABSOLUTELY have to. I'm not talking about financial institutions here...that's a different topic altogether, but all of the companies are seeing a large downturn in their manufacturing and service required. This is causing raw materials and manufacturing prices to drop up to 50%. The companies caught in the middle aren't able to compete or do business at a loss...especially those with high inventories. It's going to be a rough year for many industries.
Retailers are going to feel the crunch simply because of the unemployment rate. It creates uncertainty for those who still have jobs and reduces our disposable income. Washington won't have much affect on anything...despite Obama's attempt to fix the 'crisis'. Writing a blank check for these problems won't work. There's just too much to compensate for and every day, some industries are getting worse.
If you remember, the 1980s were similar. A lot of companies were ultimately bought and merged. Big business ran rampant and when we emerged in the 90s the companies that remained were pretty strong. A lot of airlines, retailers, tech companies, etc. all perished in the 80s and 90s and I'm sure we'll see a lot of companies continue to lose out in the next 5 years. This is bound to happen, but don't worry...it will create NEW opportunities in the next decade.
What's going to probably come of this economic-crisis is more banking regulation (good for the most part, but bad for Interest rates...similar to the 1980s). Housing HAS to take a hit. Too many people are in it and home values are going to drop across the board, yet continue to grow in some areas that never inflated to the median...but it will be slow growth due to the interest rate hike we'll likely see.
As for the economy, it may take 4-5 years to stablize and another 5 years to truly get better...or get worse. The factors here are totally up to the companies, industry competition, and the amount of disposable income left to the finicky American public that may or may not spend it. Credit was the enabler that made retail industries flourish...
Honestly, I don't see Obama's first term or whoever is in next (he or someone else) completing the work needed to make the economy as strong as it was when Clinton was in. We were reaping the benefits of manufacturing operations moving to Mexico & SE Asia. After the Cold-War rebound we saw in the late 1980s...the changing of the guard left us with confidence and interest rates dropped constantly through the 90s as perceived market risk hit rock bottom. There was unreal growth for many companies and a lot could have been done to sustain it had we been tougher with China's currency discrepancies. It will be interesting to see when they finally flip our accounting standards from the FASB to the Internation Standards...I'm just not sure how long it will take the SEC to coordinate this with the IASC.
Cliffs: 4-5 years to stablize + 5 years of improvement before it gets better. Until then, enjoy the rollercoaster. There are going to be countless changes across so many different industries that the economy as a whole will be difficult to track. Changes will be made and the results will be direct and indirectly related to these changes (and others). Good luck sorting out what's making a real difference.
Retailers are going to feel the crunch simply because of the unemployment rate. It creates uncertainty for those who still have jobs and reduces our disposable income. Washington won't have much affect on anything...despite Obama's attempt to fix the 'crisis'. Writing a blank check for these problems won't work. There's just too much to compensate for and every day, some industries are getting worse.
If you remember, the 1980s were similar. A lot of companies were ultimately bought and merged. Big business ran rampant and when we emerged in the 90s the companies that remained were pretty strong. A lot of airlines, retailers, tech companies, etc. all perished in the 80s and 90s and I'm sure we'll see a lot of companies continue to lose out in the next 5 years. This is bound to happen, but don't worry...it will create NEW opportunities in the next decade.
What's going to probably come of this economic-crisis is more banking regulation (good for the most part, but bad for Interest rates...similar to the 1980s). Housing HAS to take a hit. Too many people are in it and home values are going to drop across the board, yet continue to grow in some areas that never inflated to the median...but it will be slow growth due to the interest rate hike we'll likely see.
As for the economy, it may take 4-5 years to stablize and another 5 years to truly get better...or get worse. The factors here are totally up to the companies, industry competition, and the amount of disposable income left to the finicky American public that may or may not spend it. Credit was the enabler that made retail industries flourish...
Honestly, I don't see Obama's first term or whoever is in next (he or someone else) completing the work needed to make the economy as strong as it was when Clinton was in. We were reaping the benefits of manufacturing operations moving to Mexico & SE Asia. After the Cold-War rebound we saw in the late 1980s...the changing of the guard left us with confidence and interest rates dropped constantly through the 90s as perceived market risk hit rock bottom. There was unreal growth for many companies and a lot could have been done to sustain it had we been tougher with China's currency discrepancies. It will be interesting to see when they finally flip our accounting standards from the FASB to the Internation Standards...I'm just not sure how long it will take the SEC to coordinate this with the IASC.
Cliffs: 4-5 years to stablize + 5 years of improvement before it gets better. Until then, enjoy the rollercoaster. There are going to be countless changes across so many different industries that the economy as a whole will be difficult to track. Changes will be made and the results will be direct and indirectly related to these changes (and others). Good luck sorting out what's making a real difference.
DisgruntledVirus
Lifer
/wall of text that I did not read in a derailed thread? WTF
cHeeZeFacTory
Golden Member
i'm not sure how can any accurately answer this question. If they can, they'll rich, or maybe consider taking over the world.
It's a self fulfilling prophecy. Keep up the gloom and doom and people don't buy stuff. People don't spend, companies lose money, lay people off.
It really is a downward spiral driven by perception, made into reality. Now I'm not saying there is nothing wrong, but this gloom and doom shit is making it a whole lot worse than it needs to be.
IGBT
Lifer
--property flippers are part of the problem. Their not "home owners". they speculate. In my area during the "flipper" era many family homes were unoccupied for years. Another "flipper" would come along slap a coat of paint on it and put it on the market for 20k more. We need to establish a definition of a "home owner" and require owner occupancy for 10 years. That would get the flipper/speculator out of the market and send them back to Reno where they can play with money without causing damage to realestate and let true homeowners buy a home.
People have been desensitized by the "Will terrorists dump flesh eating bacteria in your water? Find out at 11" hype, the school shootings and missing white girls seem to be losing their viewership, so the news naturally needs to shift to something else to retain their advertising.
sandorski
No Lifer
Negative. People Spending is a large part of the problem. They were spending Money they didn't have. Borrowing phantom bucks that oozed out of the walls of their over-priced homes.
The problem right now is not a lack of Spending, it's years of Over-Spending and a lack of Savings.
Red Squirrel
No Lifer
I hear the mint has some openings. There's an increasing demand for money and they're actually expanding the plant.
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