What's the real data on China's economic boom?

[magomago]

Zebo you must be really fvcked up in your thought process. How the hell did that relate to anything on either a) the topic b) the OP's content c) anything else that followed? You just dived right in and blamed the world's ills on Muslims, right?

Anyways I do think it is inflated to a degree. That said the gains made on the past is impressive. And to be honest, do you think that we are fully honest about our own spending? Clearly their numbers can't be trusted, but there are a lot of changes to show that there is an impressive trend upwards.

For those lambasting China's destruction of its enviornment...find them a better method. They are no more polluted than western nations during the industrial revolution. If you can find a better path - please enlighten us. That doesn't mean I don't think that the destruction is justified or the heavy metals, the chemicals that seep into the landscape and even water systems should be ignored...but lets not act as if they are the only ones that tread along this path when we did it as well

 

[razor2025]

I have no idea where they're pulling those income estimates. To pull in ~ 4000 yuan a month is difficult for most of the population there. Anecdotally, from what my relatives tell me over there, regular college graduate with a BS might earn anywhere from 1000-2000 on average, assuming they can get the job, which is fiercely competitive. Did I also mention that housing cost over there is beyond insanity? A modest condo/high-rise in a lower than average neighborhood cost a cool 1mil yuan easily. Oh and it's not even new build either, something around 10-15 year old.

There's huge glut of college graduate in China. However, their education aren't exactly the best to produce innovation either. Their system relies heavily upon disseminating the same information and how well you regurgitate it back in exams. Very little is done to encourage teamwork and creative thinking. I've worked with and observed foreign students from China. The style and structure of education difference are quite dramatic. There are exceptions of course.

Sure, China's economy is growing insanely fast, but it's all about being able to sustain it. The CCP is desperately trying to find ways to slow down their growth before everything crashes. High inflation, pollution, and social discontent are running rampant and often ignored by media. Did I also mention how f*cked they are in 20-30 years, when the real consequence of one-child policy hit them? Their retirement/pension problems will make our social security problems look like child's play.

China's hyper-fast growth is looks spectacular from the outside, but take a deeper look at its foundation and you'll see massive cracks and holes in their foundation. Their future looks bright, but they have serious problems looming overhead. I'd love to see my country of origin boom and prosper, along with most of my relatives there. However, I hate it when the people/media paint a rosy picture for the entire country.

 

[AndrewR]

Originally posted by: ericlp

Originally posted by: Skoorb
So China's economy is TEN TIMES greater in a year than the year prior? Crack pipes must be what they're making, nothing else.

Circle jerking aside for a moment they also have a very rural population, immature infrastructure and education.

No they are making your Ipods, Iphones, Not just 99% of all the shoes come from China, More then likely the very computer and keyboard and mouse you are using was made in China. But all the cell phones like Motorola, LG, Touch etc...etc... are made in China, Most of the digital camera's are made their as well.

Dell, Gateway, HP are all made in China. Microsoft Mice and Keyboards yes all made in China.

China just bought out IBM's laptop department, but gateway and dell laptops are all made their anyway.

I dear you to find anything in Office Max or Office Dept that isn't made in China.

I am almost brave enough to tell you that your fat american ass is sitting on a chair that is made in China. Go look it's printed under the seat. I'll wait. I'd love for you to walk into sears and find anything that there that isn't made in China.

Also.... All the LCD and Plasma TV's + all 95% of all the projectors DLP/LCD are made in China.

Hmmm, it appears that the crack pipes are probably only made here in the USA.

Yes, and the toxic by-products from all this manufacturing is being summarily dumped into the environment everywhere within the country. Fertilizers are being used with wild abandon, and mining operations are dumping mud and toxic wastes into waterways, destroying ecosystems downriver and polluting groundwater and aquifers alike. Rapid, unregulated construction has lead to shoddy buildings that collapse fairly easily -- reference the 70,000+ dead from the recent earthquake.

China has grown at an amazing rate, but what they've overlooked in the process is coming home to roost as rivers catch on fire, cancer rates increase at alarming rates, and workers begin to demand fair wages and humane treatment. Factor those costs along with the aging population, and China's blazing future isn't quite as bright as the Panglosses of the world would like it to be.

The US has already had its Love Canals and burning rivers (Cleveland?), and we're still paying for it and suffering consequences. What China has done and is doing makes our problems look like child's play. Have you ever visited China when the coal fires are burning to heat homes? It's the worst air in the world, bar none.

 

[ElFenix]

all i know is that when talking to a chinese national about a year ago she got very personally insulted when i said it would be impossible to keep up 10% a year growth forever.

 

[razor2025]

Originally posted by: magomago

For those lambasting China's destruction of its enviornment...find them a better method. They are no more polluted than western nations during the industrial revolution. If you can find a better path - please enlighten us. That doesn't mean I don't think that the destruction is justified or the heavy metals, the chemicals that seep into the landscape and even water systems should be ignored...but lets not act as if they are the only ones that tread along this path when we did it as well

I'd have to disagree with you on this point. There ARE better methods. It's just that they purposefully chose not to follow them because it cuts into their production costs. The reason why manufacturing cost higher in the West is because we have chosen higher standards in labor and environment. When the West had its Industrial Revolution, there were NO other way. We didn't have the knowledge/technology (pollution side) or morale/ethics (labor) to do it any other way. China has the opportunity to learn from our mistakes, but they've chosen not to, in order to pursue their insanely fast economic expansion. They will have to pay the price in not so distant future.

 

[razor2025]

Originally posted by: ElFenix
all i know is that when talking to a chinese national about a year ago she got very personally insulted when i said it would be impossible to keep up 10% a year growth forever.

I can definitely attest to that. If I express any negative view on China, my parents will get a bit pissy about it. Regardless of whether my opinion was valid or not. Chinese people are VERY nationalistic. It's unfortunate that the CCP takes advantage of it every chance they get.

 

[sunzt]

Originally posted by: razor2025
...

Sure, China's economy is growing insanely fast, but it's all about being able to sustain it. The CCP is desperately trying to find ways to slow down their growth before everything crashes. High inflation, pollution, and social discontent are running rampant and often ignored by media. Did I also mention how f*cked they are in 20-30 years, when the real consequence of one-child policy hit them? Their retirement/pension problems will make our social security problems look like child's play.

...

China is going an immense amount of challenges in the next few decades. I would identify them as the following in the order of importance:

1. Meeting energry demand and securing sources of energy (oil especially)
2. Adapting to the huge domestic demographic shift due to the one-child policy
3. Cleaning up its environment and becomming more efficient

Tackling any one of those challenges would take a major toll on any country including the US, and it would require many years of commitment and investment to solve those problems. The good news is that the government has already made many inroads in all three of those challanges.

China has secured many energy contracts in Africa and Latin America. There are many new coal and water nuclear plants being constructed to meet the energy demand. China has been easing the restrictions on one child policy for a while especially in minorities, and rural areas where about half of the population resides. There have been many government led initiatives to improve the environment as well. Over the years the pollution in many cities such as Tianjin, Beijing, and Shanghai have improved. Beijing has about double the number of "measured blue sky days" than years past. Believe it or not, grassroots enviromental campaigns are springing up as well. From just a handful a decade or so ago, to over 3000 today, these groups have helped to shut down 30 or so facilities that overpolute and break the regulation (from National Geographics Special report on China). Also, have you recently heard of China's recent ban on free plastic bags? Store now charge 0.3-1 yuan for a plastic bag. This has led to people carrying their own cotton bags (big ones) when going shopping and reducing the waste from plastic bags.

So yes, China has MAJOR challanges that it will have to solve in the upcomming years, and yes there is lots of room for improvement and lots more to do. They also have to do it while keeping society from imploding in on them. But I believe that if any country can tackle these problems sucessfully, it is China because it has the willpower, patience, and money to do .

 

[naddicott]

Originally posted by: sunzt
Beijing has about double the number of "measured blue sky days" than years past.

This improvement is more due to changing how they measure "blue sky days" than any improvements in pollution levels.

In 1998, Beijing recorded only 100 Blue Sky days. In 2007, that number had risen to 246, a fact hailed last week in China?s state media.

But Mr. Andrews said the recent improvement was largely the result of changing the formula in 2006. He said the city?s daily pollution rating was based on readings from a subset of the more than two dozen monitoring stations around the city. Mr. Andrews said readings from seven stations were used from 1998 to 2005.

But in 2006, the city dropped two stations located near areas with high traffic and replaced them with three other stations in quieter areas. The impact on the Blue Sky ratings was drastic; Mr. Andrews found that using the original seven stations would have meant 38 fewer Blue Sky days in 2006, and 55 fewer last year.

This would have meant that Beijing had fewer days meeting national air quality standards last year than in 2002, when there were 203.

Mr. Andrews also found that ratings began to change after officials set targets for every monitoring station in the city. He said this political imperative coincided with a rising number of days that rated just below the break point of 101 to qualify as a Blue Sky day.

 

[StageLeft]

For those lambasting China's destruction of its enviornment...find them a better method. They are no more polluted than western nations during the industrial revolution. If you can find a better path - please enlighten us. That doesn't mean I don't think that the destruction is justified or the heavy metals, the chemicals that seep into the landscape and even water systems should be ignored...but lets not act as if they are the only ones that tread along this path when we did it as well

Chemicals FTL. Industrial revolution wasn't pumping in wild and amazing cocktails that industry creates these days, and it did it on a much smaller scale. In any case, it's their country to destroy, though it does impact air elsewhere, too.

China has among the most disgusting cities in the world. It is ravaging its landscape and tolerates filth and poison at levels we can hardly even consider.

They do it not because they want to but because it IS cheaper to ignore these things, so it is why they are growing so quickly.

China had a "green-adjusted" GDP concept it came out with a few years ago. It quickly closed that down because when it adjusted its GDP for environmental damage costs it found that growth was much slower and in some places I believe even reversed. They are digging their own grave.

 

[yllus]

Originally posted by: ericlp
Obviously most Americans have no clue what's going on in China. I have 70% of my investments their also, I have a lot of friends their that I talk with they all seem to be happy with whats going on. I plan to visit next year after the Olympics CF.

Mike the Idiot was suppose to say NON-Americans I think. And again he has no numbers of the ones that are graduating in China. So, he has no clue.

I hope for your sake that you're exaggerating.

Oh, and speaking of nations in trouble because of non-performing loans, back in 2006 China was a world leader in that category. I'm curious as to how they're doing since then but reliable information's hard to come across.

China banks fail to cut bad-loan risks, IMF reports

BEIJING: Despite costly efforts to rescue China's major state-owned banks, they continue to make high-risk loans to money-losing state-owned enterprises, according to a new International Monetary Fund working paper.

The IMF paper noted that there was a "striking difference" between the proportion of bad loans in old lending and more recent lending.

It said that about 2 percent of loans made since 2000 were reported as nonperforming, whereas that proportion was as high as 60 percent for older lending.

This suggested dramatic improvement, or shortcomings in measuring problem loans.

In fact, some banking analysts warn that China's banks could soon face a fresh wave of nonperforming loans arising from the rapid expansion of lending in 2003 and the first half of 2004.

 

[magomago]

Originally posted by: razor2025

Originally posted by: magomago

For those lambasting China's destruction of its enviornment...find them a better method. They are no more polluted than western nations during the industrial revolution. If you can find a better path - please enlighten us. That doesn't mean I don't think that the destruction is justified or the heavy metals, the chemicals that seep into the landscape and even water systems should be ignored...but lets not act as if they are the only ones that tread along this path when we did it as well

I'd have to disagree with you on this point. There ARE better methods. It's just that they purposefully chose not to follow them because it cuts into their production costs. The reason why manufacturing cost higher in the West is because we have chosen higher standards in labor and environment. When the West had its Industrial Revolution, there were NO other way. We didn't have the knowledge/technology (pollution side) or morale/ethics (labor) to do it any other way. China has the opportunity to learn from our mistakes, but they've chosen not to, in order to pursue their insanely fast economic expansion. They will have to pay the price in not so distant future.

Technology to stay clean, while not costly in all situations, is generally not cheap. We even have hissy fits ourselves on occasion to complying with environmental regulations.

You hit the point: China is out to advance as fast as possible. They want to be "developed" without delay at whatever the cost. Unless you find a better method to achieve rapid development, then the point still stands there is no better way.

Within the CCP eyes, 50-100 years at whatever point China can be considered to be sufficiently developed will be a time when things are clean ~ but until then, rape your resources and land to move as fast as possible. the "West" has shown that while full recovery is not necessarily possible in all situations, the resiliency and toughness of the environment will stand the test of time. I
I think China is probably more worried about a growing desert line than huge concentrations of heavy metals littered across the paths of locomotives, etc.

I agree they will have the price to pay, but the CCP will always live comfy, and future generations of average joe Chinese will have it better. Spend your life building that well not even if you don't enjoy the benefits of it, and your grandchildren will reap the rewards.

 

[StageLeft]

the "West" has shown that while full recovery is not necessarily possible in all situations, the resiliency and toughness of the environment will stand the test of time

i really think that what China is doing to its land is a completely different scale than what the West did to it during the industrial revolution and after, before respecting its environment more. Perhaps we didn't know that spewing into rivers was really that bad; the water tasted the same, right? Maybe we didn't know that coal mining for a few decades would send you to an early grave but China knows all this and its people with no other choice go to it, which i suppose is better than nothing probably for them, but cleaning an environment is much slower and harder than dirtying it.

 

[ericlp]

Originally posted by: piasabird
I put my computer together myself. Maybe all the parts were made in china, but I put it together without the help of any chinese.

China also makes more pollution than any other country on earth.

They also make 50% of the worlds Solar Panels. Go Figure! Dunno what the numbers on the wind turbines.

Oh well, They out produce us in apples. Amazing country to say the least.

And lets not mention the have the wolds biggest hydro electric generating power plants.

But never mind all this, we will still blast the tops of our mountains off ... No problem there. Also, for those that say that all the dirt and pollution form industrial waste. You don't HAVE to buy the products that are causing the problem!!!! I think they are trying to get a handle on it, just like we are and the amazon forest that is getting striped faster and faster every year. It's not just one countries problem it is a global problem. We all need to deal with it and it "JUST' isn't China's problem.

Sheesh

Grow Up a little would ya? America isn't winning any green environmental awards.

 

[rchiu]

Man, lots of FUD, misinformation and inaccuracy in this thread. First, Chinese economy grows on an average of 10% per year since 1990, a substantial amount, but no where close to 10x per year. Second, 10% is great but that's because they started from a small base, you need to only grow 100mil if your economy is 1billion for 10%, but 100bil if your economy is 1 trillion. Third, that's why all those countries are called "developing" country, and the US and EU are called "developed" country, they are still developing, hence the substantial growth.

China is doing well also because they have a centrally planed economy. They control their currency to make their export more competitive, they give favorable terms for companies to invest, build factories in their country, and their labor is cheap, while highly educated. They planned their economy, figure out what they need, and invest, push investment towards things that give them most returns. They have a conservative government spending as well as trade policy, leading to large government/trade surplus.

Finally, all the figures are not just reported by Chinese government, they are reported by world bank, other international organizations, trade organizations and private companies studies. Just go visit any major cities in China and try to dispute their growth. Oh and even with 5x+ the US population, China only over take the US as a whole in pollution recently, in per capital/per person level, US leads the world by far in pollution.

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying Chinese are perfect, they got human right problem, their government officials are freaking corrupt, and they have a huge wealth gap between the coastal area and inland cities. But Chinese economic development is real, they have a huge market with increasing purchasing power that every company in the world wanna be a part of, and they have a big influence in the global economy by the shear volume of their import/export, as well as their population.

 

[RichardE]

Originally posted by: Zebo
You worried about China? All they want is to be Americans - educate produce spend and live well. I think they may be the only ones self-assured enough to confront those crazy Muzzies while western cities burn, fueled with multiculturalism, human rights, bill of rights, due process, and rules of engagement.. Go China! The Chinese don't take shit from anybody... just ask the Pakistani "freedom fighters" and mujahideen fighting for the "freedom of Kashmir"... the MSM will NEVER remind you of this, but 10% of Kashmir is under Chinese occupation.

So while the cowardly mujahideen foray into the Indian part to murder civilians, kill women and children, and enjoy rapine and torture with reckless abandon, they NEVER, EVER go into the Chinese part of Kashmir.

Why? Because they are at heart chickensh*t cowards that don't really think that "God is on their side." They terrorize the peace-loving Hindus and Buddhists of India, just like they terrorize the Jews in Israel and the Christians in Sudan, Nigeria, and the Philippines: because they know that they can get away with it. They know that if they did go into Chinese Kashmir and make some mischief, the airstrikes would hit Karachi and Islamabad the NEXT DAY. The Chinese mean business. The Chinese are the new Texans regarding the old joke: "Don't ever buy toilet paper from Texas; it don't take sh*t from nobody. " I hope they spend 500 billion like us someday on offense.

Neither were the Russians.

 

[RichardE]

Originally posted by: magomago
Zebo you must be really fvcked up in your thought process. How the hell did that relate to anything on either a) the topic b) the OP's content c) anything else that followed? You just dived right in and blamed the world's ills on Muslims, right?

Anyways I do think it is inflated to a degree. That said the gains made on the past is impressive. And to be honest, do you think that we are fully honest about our own spending? Clearly their numbers can't be trusted, but there are a lot of changes to show that there is an impressive trend upwards.

For those lambasting China's destruction of its enviornment...find them a better method. They are no more polluted than western nations during the industrial revolution. If you can find a better path - please enlighten us. That doesn't mean I don't think that the destruction is justified or the heavy metals, the chemicals that seep into the landscape and even water systems should be ignored...but lets not act as if they are the only ones that tread along this path when we did it as well

It is a lot different now that the world has the knowledge to avoid that than before when we didn't.

 

[wonwhole]

I am a Chinese. I use Chinese to answer my views.
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[wonwhole]

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[XZeroII]

Originally posted by: wonwhole
I am a Chinese. I use Chinese to answer my views.
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From the defense budget perspective, is about less than <GPD of 5 percent. China's 90 per cent of the low standard of living of ordinary people, no cars, no decent housing, nor relatively generous medical and pension protection. China's relatively low production efficiency, thus sacrificing a lot of labor costs, low efficiency of the industrial automation, the ordinary people of the United States is also very understanding. You need to sympathize with China's ordinary people, you have the tendency of some people a problem, it seems that the objection or beware of the Chinese nation. Questioned the Government - "expanded to challenge the Chinese nation. A problem.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: piasabird
I put my computer together myself. Maybe all the parts were made in china, but I put it together without the help of any chinese.

China also makes more pollution than any other country on earth.

So?

They are independent.

 

[dahunan]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: piasabird
I put my computer together myself. Maybe all the parts were made in china, but I put it together without the help of any chinese.

China also makes more pollution than any other country on earth.

So?

They are independent.

Chinas per capita pollution is probably lower than USA

Keep thinking of China as ass backwards - not a smart thing to do

EDIT >> and this post was really meant for pissabird

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: ericlp
Obviously most Americans have no clue what's going on in China. I have 70% of my investments their also, I have a lot of friends their that I talk with they all seem to be happy with whats going on. I plan to visit next year after the Olympics CF.

Mike the Idiot was suppose to say NON-Americans I think. And again he has no numbers of the ones that are graduating in China. So, he has no clue.

because you had tons of numbers, idiot. i bet china is graduating tons of engineers which is why our engineering schools are full of chinese students.

coming from the dude talking about china growing tenfold every year, you clearly have no credibility on the issue. China manufactures cheap commodity items, thats about it. We build trains, factory machinery, construction equipment, farm equipment, planes, ships etc.

china makes shoes and keyboards

and you expect me to be concerned

They have some industrial equipment coming out of there too. I put in a JinMing extruder line at a plant not to long ago. It was about 1/3 the price of a Cincinnati or a Davis-Standard from what the plant was telling me. But sure, most of their stuff is commodity items.

I hope it's better quality and more durable than the equipment that we have bought from China. Sure, we can get two presses cheaper than one US made press, but we have bought 3 of them from China only to turn around and buy US made presses within one year of the initial purchase of Chinese presses because they were junk and did not work. Good luck with the Chinese made production stuff....you might get lucky though.

 

[nick1985]

Originally posted by: wonwhole
I am a Chinese. I use Chinese to answer my views.
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Very interesting

 

[Taejin]

Originally posted by: wonwhole
I am a Chinese. I use Chinese to answer my views.
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so that's the Chinese attitude, huh.

 

[Slew Foot]

That must be the ancient Chinese secret recipe for Kung Pao Chicken.