WHAT'S NEXT FOR LIBERALISM?

[Jhhnn]

I can understand the starve the beast strategy. Ideally you first reduce spending and then reduce taxes. However, all of the incentives in government and relating with a half-informed public are for more spending and inefficient spending that doesn't ask too much from the workers, because the workers vote.

So if you are the fiscally responsible Party, you're always holding the bag and blamed for tax increases. Starving the beast is a pretty extreme position to take which makes sense given the incentives. Everyone views government as a piñata to take a swing at and get something out of.

Anyways, what I am trying to say is that in the Obama years we have lived in an economic unreality. The deficit going over 1.2 trillion in a single year is mind-blowing. That is the same as was accumulated over the entirety of the Reagan years. We have gotten carried away with frivolous culture war issues in our politics. At some point we won't be able to borrow so easily, and when that day comes, politics goes back to normal. Normally you should have to make tradeoffs between growth and inflation. Inflation is supposed to be the feedback mechanism that taxes are too low or spending too high.

Please. Starve the beast puts the interests of the wealthy above the interests of the people. Repubs will put us in the position where we can't borrow & where we can't pay it back, either, so it ends up like borrowing money from the Mob, where we're always paying vigorish to the Wealthy. A lot of vigorish.

The debt nearly tripled from 1981 to 1989 & had grown to 4.4X the size by 1993.

https://treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt_histo4.htm

Debt accumulation tapered off to nearly nothing during the Clinton years, then nearly doubled again under GWB.

https://treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt_histo5.htm

The rate of increase actually slowed over the Obama presidency, even as we've necessarily engaged in deficits to counter the swift kick in the nuts delivered in the collapse of the greatest Repub sponsored financial flimflam in History, the Ownership Society.

It semms certain that Trump & the Repubs will slash regulations & taxes at the top, fueling some new unsustainable bubble. They can either slash social spending or let the deficits run wild or some compromise between the two.

That is exactly the opposite direction from what we need to take. Yeh, sure, boom/bust is great if you're financially unassailable at the top of the economic food chain but it's incompatible with 30 year mortgages. If we want to limit the damage from bust cycles we must necessarily contain unrealistic exuberance on the upside. Repubs don't believe in any of that at all.

 

[MooseNSquirrel]

1. comprehensive immigration reform would have legalized millions of potential voters. Under Trump this does not happen.
2. self-deportation would likely result in entire families, including eligible voters, emigrating completely, and would result in the longer run a slower or even reversed growth rate of immigrant and future voters.

Sure, be paranoid. Despite my saying otherwise. For the record, I don't believe there is widespread voter fraud in this country because it would be too hard to coordinate and keep secret. But if voter requirements or immigration policies were changed, as they likely will with Kris Kobach, the landscape changes.

Not quite, the demographic changes are happening even without so called undocumented workers in the picture, not sure how long the immigration bogeyman card will work.

On the other hand, predicting politics is a losing proposition. No one could have predicted that americans would elect a third party to be President, and yet we did.

Because Trump is not a Republican, nor a Democrat. Hes an Ego. So weird!

 

[agent00f]

I can understand the starve the beast strategy. Ideally you first reduce spending and then reduce taxes. However, all of the incentives in government and relating with a half-informed public are for more spending and inefficient spending that doesn't ask too much from the workers, because the workers vote.

So if you are the fiscally responsible Party, you're always holding the bag and blamed for tax increases. Starving the beast is a pretty extreme position to take which makes sense given the incentives. Everyone views government as a piñata to take a swing at and get something out of.

Anyways, what I am trying to say is that in the Obama years we have lived in an economic unreality. The deficit going over 1.2 trillion in a single year is mind-blowing. That is the same as was accumulated over the entirety of the Reagan years. We have gotten carried away with frivolous culture war issues in our politics. At some point we won't be able to borrow so easily, and when that day comes, politics goes back to normal. Normally you should have to make tradeoffs between growth and inflation. Inflation is supposed to be the feedback mechanism that taxes are too low or spending too high.

The obama bailout type deficit spending was basically emergency room surgery for issues that should've been treated earlier. It's not hard to figure out the relative costs involved between these options.

Also, if you actually read the link or that topic in general, you'd know that deficits in fiat system are secondary to inflation which is a (inverse) proxy for actual productive output. The role of a smart government is to address/maximize the latter, and monetary system are but one tool (and rather indirect one) to affect this.

 

[trenchfoot]

You going to clarify whether or not you are being genuine here or not?

Apologies for the tardiness. Was reconfiguring my new laptop along with a slew of fixes for the house, yard and wifey's car.

I'd say my post was 85% tongue in cheek,10% sarcasm and a 5% dig at Trump's problematic bromance with Putin.

 

[desura]

Not quite, the demographic changes are happening even without so called undocumented workers in the picture, not sure how long the immigration bogeyman card will work.

On the other hand, predicting politics is a losing proposition. No one could have predicted that americans would elect a third party to be President, and yet we did.

Because Trump is not a Republican, nor a Democrat. Hes an Ego. So weird!

The problem is that Democrats are assuming that minority voters will automatically be D voters. What is more likely is that as minority voters become more assimilated and Americanized, they become more like white voters.

Immigration isn't about scared white voters. The point is that immigration changes the overall demographics. Immigration reform was forecast to be a bonanza for Democrats because the ten million or so recently legalized would likely vote for Democrats. Since this amnesty policy likely will not occur, the voting landscape changes. Combine this with what will likely be a plethora of voting restrictions by the GOP controlled government, and the Democrats might be locked out for a long time.

I honestly do not see hope for them in 2020. They don't have any promising up and coming talent because they've lost so many seats in the Obama years.

 

[agent00f]

The problem is that Democrats are assuming that minority voters will automatically be D voters. What is more likely is that as minority voters become more assimilated and Americanized, they become more like white voters.

Immigration isn't about scared white voters. The point is that immigration changes the overall demographics. Immigration reform was forecast to be a bonanza for Democrats because the ten million or so recently legalized would likely vote for Democrats. Since this amnesty policy likely will not occur, the voting landscape changes. Combine this with what will likely be a plethora of voting restrictions by the GOP controlled government, and the Democrats might be locked out for a long time.

I honestly do not see hope for them in 2020. They don't have any promising up and coming talent because they've lost so many seats in the Obama years.

Sure, Murica is a white country. Democrats will lose in 2020 because popular vote can't overcome rust belt white power.

 

[theeedude]

It's the economy, stupid. Crush the economic revival dreams of the Rust Belt working class, and GOP is done.

 

[imported_tajmahal]

It's the economy, stupid. Crush the economic revival dreams of the Rust Belt working class, and GOP is done.

Every once in awhile your concern mask slips off and you show who you really are.

 

[theeedude]

Every once in awhile your concern mask slips off and you show who you really are.

If you are concerned for this country, crush the Rust belt revival, and the GOP along with it. It could be a little thing like deciding what you buy, or it could be working on AI and robotics. Everyone can do their part. If they want revival, they'll have to get it through enlightenment and education, not through hijacking this country and giving it to a Fascist.

 

[agent00f]

Every once in awhile your concern mask slips off and you show who you really are.

Only some liberals are dumb enough to keep subsidizing traitors to the country.

 

[Jaskalas]

Only some liberals are dumb enough to keep subsidizing traitors to the country.

They either vote your way or are traitors?
How very Democratic of you.

You will not win by hatred or vile.
The future of Liberalism is Progressivism. It is to embrace poor Americans of ALL walks.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

They either vote your way or are traitors?
How very Democratic of you.

You will not win by hatred or vile.

sadly, that's exactly how drumpf won

 

[Jhhnn]

The problem is that Democrats are assuming that minority voters will automatically be D voters. What is more likely is that as minority voters become more assimilated and Americanized, they become more like white voters.

Immigration isn't about scared white voters. The point is that immigration changes the overall demographics. Immigration reform was forecast to be a bonanza for Democrats because the ten million or so recently legalized would likely vote for Democrats. Since this amnesty policy likely will not occur, the voting landscape changes. Combine this with what will likely be a plethora of voting restrictions by the GOP controlled government, and the Democrats might be locked out for a long time.

I honestly do not see hope for them in 2020. They don't have any promising up and coming talent because they've lost so many seats in the Obama years.

So, we'll have simulated democracy & minority rule? Well, I mean more than we already do.

Peachy. I suppose it could work if that minority had some respect for the majority & tended to the interests of the people in an appropriate fashion. That won't happen. Repub ideology isn't about that at all. Their objective is to concentrate economic power so that they'll still run things when the day comes that America gets sick of their shit. They'll necessarily break the system to do that, the system that protects the interests of the 99%, then try to put that brokenness in lockdown controlled by the plutocracy. The first part of that seems inevitable. The last part isn't.

Conservatives, particularly rural & small town conservatives, fail to fully appreciate the world as it is, how it came to be & the direction it's taking even though the evidence of that transformation affects them deeply. It's about Walmart, Cargill, Amazon, Con Agra, hedge fund ownership & the death of small banks. It's about automation, offshoring & capital mobility. It's about progress & business interests moving to a higher level of organization. It's about the simple fact that the people can only hope to counter that through higher levels of organization where we have a voice- our govt. Otherwise, we're at the mercy of the greediest people on the planet.

Your remarks wrt immigration are highly inaccurate & the numbers exaggerated. Dems would readily accept non-voting resident alien status for illegals who've contributed to our society & who often have American citizen children. OTOH, we want Citizen status for all the young people who've been raised American even if they lack that status today. It's the right thing to do.

Immigration fuels demand & growth. It brings new vitality. It always has in this Country.

 

[agent00f]

They either vote your way or are traitors?
How very Democratic of you.

Traitors who're overjoyed at putin's ethnofascist winning with much less votes.

You will not win by hatred or vile.
The future of Liberalism is Progressivism.

Dumb liberals deserve to lose at prisoner's dilemma. I suspect you'd only encourage them.

It is to embrace poor Americans of ALL walks.

In similar vein it can be said that jesus got what he deserved this election, too.

 

[Blue_Max]

They either vote your way or are traitors?
How very Democratic of you.

You will not win by hatred or vile.
The future of Liberalism is Progressivism. It is to embrace poor Americans of ALL walks.

...unless you're the wrong colour. (You know which one.)
...or the wrong gender. (You know which one.)
...or completely straight. (CIS scum!)
...and on and on and on...

 

[Jaskalas]

Let me reiterate, as it was an edit to return to the point.
The future of Liberalism is Progressivism. It is to embrace poor Americans of ALL walks.

You will not win by hatred or vile.

sadly, that's exactly how drumpf won

You need to learn what Trump's message was to the swing votes. You are failing miserably to describe it.
Look to the counties that swung the Rust Belt and Appalachian states, look at their poverty and desperation.
By all accounts they'll be even poorer and more desperate next time.

Do not attack them as traitors. Do not slander them as hateful. Embrace your fellow Americans and look to a better future.
Earn their vote by showing them the way forward.

The battle for the 2020s begins now, Trump needs to prove he's not an abject failure, and Democrats need to not hate everyone.

 

[Blue_Max]

sadly, that's exactly how drumpf won

Exactly! Your side showed the hatred the Trump voters were sick of and voted against it. Simple! One day you'll grasp that...

 

[agent00f]

Let me reiterate, as it was an edit to return to the point.
The future of Liberalism is Progressivism. It is to embrace poor Americans of ALL walks.

You need to learn what Trump's message was to the swing votes. You are failing miserably to describe it.
Look to the counties that swung the Rust Belt and Appalachian states, look at their poverty and desperation.
By all accounts they'll be even poorer and more desperate next time.

Do not attack them as traitors. Do not slander them as hateful. Embrace your fellow Americans and look to a better future.
Earn their vote by showing them the way forward.

The battle for the 2020s begins now, Trump needs to prove he's not an abject failure, and Democrats need to not hate everyone.

What makes you believe anyone would have any more success than the dozens of educators who've failed before them? This is not a rhetorical question. I've certainly seen zero evidence the bulk are teachable in any way, which rather explains the current predicament.

For example, I recall informing you that trump supporters are by any account not poor with substantial supporting data, and look how effective that was.

 

[Blue_Max]

What's next for liberalism? More and more people just like this, here and everywhere else.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Exactly! Your side showed the hatred the Trump voters were sick of and voted against it. Simple! One day you'll grasp that...

remind me again who you voted for

 

[desura]

So, we'll have simulated democracy & minority rule? Well, I mean more than we already do.

Peachy. I suppose it could work if that minority had some respect for the majority & tended to the interests of the people in an appropriate fashion. That won't happen. Repub ideology isn't about that at all. Their objective is to concentrate economic power so that they'll still run things when the day comes that America gets sick of their shit. They'll necessarily break the system to do that, the system that protects the interests of the 99%, then try to put that brokenness in lockdown controlled by the plutocracy. The first part of that seems inevitable. The last part isn't.

Conservatives, particularly rural & small town conservatives, fail to fully appreciate the world as it is, how it came to be & the direction it's taking even though the evidence of that transformation affects them deeply. It's about Walmart, Cargill, Amazon, Con Agra, hedge fund ownership & the death of small banks. It's about automation, offshoring & capital mobility. It's about progress & business interests moving to a higher level of organization. It's about the simple fact that the people can only hope to counter that through higher levels of organization where we have a voice- our govt. Otherwise, we're at the mercy of the greediest people on the planet.

Your remarks wrt immigration are highly inaccurate & the numbers exaggerated. Dems would readily accept non-voting resident alien status for illegals who've contributed to our society & who often have American citizen children. OTOH, we want Citizen status for all the young people who've been raised American even if they lack that status today. It's the right thing to do.

Immigration fuels demand & growth. It brings new vitality. It always has in this Country.

The small town conservatives might fail to see the world as you think they should see it, but they still see it the way they do and they vote the way they do, and you can't just ignore them. America also happens to be one of the few places in the world which make it extremely easy for newcomers to obtain citizenship. This is commendable, but in reality...voters whose family has fought in wars going back to the civil war, should have greater say than relative newcomers.

I am sensitive to the possibility of populism resulting in non-optimal outcomes. There is an objectively correct way to run the economy and there is an objectively wrong way. Because of how incentives and misinformation shape up, a purely populist rule in America could very well result in bad management of the economy.

The way I see immigration is that it often punishes a community that is responsible in restraining population growth. I think of restraining population growth as essentially putting money in the bank--the bank being the enjoyment of wild open spaces and a slower pace of life. Why is there so much Mexican immigration in the first place? The answer likely is because the Catholic church in Mexico and Latin America restricts birth control access, and so there is a ridiculous surplus of people as a result.

And we only have to look to France to see the problems that immigration brings, with pretty much zero upside there in their Muslim minority.

 

[Jhhnn]

Let me reiterate, as it was an edit to return to the point.
The future of Liberalism is Progressivism. It is to embrace poor Americans of ALL walks.




You need to learn what Trump's message was to the swing votes. You are failing miserably to describe it.
Look to the counties that swung the Rust Belt and Appalachian states, look at their poverty and desperation.
By all accounts they'll be even poorer and more desperate next time.

Do not attack them as traitors. Do not slander them as hateful. Embrace your fellow Americans and look to a better future.
Earn their vote by showing them the way forward.

The battle for the 2020s begins now, Trump needs to prove he's not an abject failure, and Democrats need to not hate everyone.

Agreed. The folks you reference are beguiled & bewildered. What they have left is their pride, which makes them even easier targets. They'll be learning the hard way what the rest of us already know.

Trump? Trump can't deliver. Repubs can't deliver either. They actually have no intention of doing so & never have. They'll just set us to fighting with each other over the crumbs.

 

[theeedude]

Agreed. The folks you reference are beguiled & bewildered. What they have left is their pride, which makes them even easier targets.

Time to crush their pride again. They don't have anything to be proud off anyways, that's why they are clinging on to supposedly "great" past. Last time their pride was crushed was in the Great Depression, and they wised up quickly and for a long time. Time to relearn that lesson.

 

[Orignal Earl]

Exactly! Your side showed the hatred the Trump voters were sick of and voted against it. Simple! One day you'll grasp that...

So that's how Trudeau got elected

 

[Jhhnn]

The small town conservatives might fail to see the world as you think they should see it, but they still see it the way they do and they vote the way they do, and you can't just ignore them. America also happens to be one of the few places in the world which make it extremely easy for newcomers to obtain citizenship. This is commendable, but in reality...voters whose family has fought in wars going back to the civil war, should have greater say than relative newcomers.

I am sensitive to the possibility of populism resulting in non-optimal outcomes. There is an objectively correct way to run the economy and there is an objectively wrong way. Because of how incentives and misinformation shape up, a purely populist rule in America could very well result in bad management of the economy.

The way I see immigration is that it often punishes a community that is responsible in restraining population growth. I think of restraining population growth as essentially putting money in the bank--the bank being the enjoyment of wild open spaces and a slower pace of life. Why is there so much Mexican immigration in the first place? The answer likely is because the Catholic church in Mexico and Latin America restricts birth control access, and so there is a ridiculous surplus of people as a result.

And we only have to look to France to see the problems that immigration brings, with pretty much zero upside there in their Muslim minority.

Democrats haven't been ignoring small town America from an economic perspective at all. The revered jerb creators have been doing that even as Repub politicians exploit their best qualities in a truly cruel fashion. The sad truth is that there's less profit in creating jobs in small town America than in the metro areas. If it weren't then things would be different. Capitalists seek more profit, not less, & therefore can't be expected to change it on their own. Repub ideology claims that they will in some fashion akin to magic.

Prosperous blue states have been willing to sacrifice a share of their own federal tax contributions to make lives better in the poorer & redder parts of America. Last time I checked, some of the reddest states get a lot more in federal dollars than they contribute but they seem to object to it most of all. Repub control at the federal level will obviously seek to remove that oh-so undesirable federal influence form their voters' lives. I suppose they'll only be truly free when they have nothing left to lose.

What part of "Citizens have equal rights" are you really willing to denounce, anyway?

It's bullshit nativism corroding the very foundation of democracy. It's "Some animals should be more equal than others".

Small town & rural America scarcely has an issue with excess population. They've been losing population for 100 years. The only thing acting against that is immigrants moving in to take the low pay work available that their own children passed up when they moved away.