What's Dead?

[MooseNSquirrel]

For a moment there I thought I was suffering deja-vu and someone had bumped a year 2000 end of times thread.

S&M

 

[OrByte]

take away peoples social security and medicare and yes there will be civil unrest.

So what is the likely hood of that happening?

edit: What I mean to say is there are scenarios that could take place but not necessarily "Thunderdome" type stuff.


But if you think cities like LA or ATL or Houston are safe from any type of civil unrest you are kidding yourself.

 

[shiner]

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Jack Flash

Originally posted by: Socio

Originally posted by: alien42
"Civil unrest will break out before the end of the year. The Military and Guard will be called up to try to stop it. They won't be able to. Big cities are at risk of becoming a free-fire death zone. If you live in one, figure out how you can get out and live somewhere else if you detect signs that yours is starting to go "feral"; witness New Orleans after Katrina for how fast, and how bad, it can get."

now that is golden, especially when stated as fact.

When the crap hits the fan just where exactly do you think the first significant impact is going to hit?

That?s right major cities, like LA, New York, Detroit, Chicago, Atlanta, etc?. where high numbers of people are concentrated, where food and other life sustaining supplies will run out first. It does not take a genius to figure out that is where major civil unrest will start and be the most violent.

But food isn't going to run out. Just because people won't be able to buy a new iPod doesn't mean the demise of civilization.

The US food system is more fragile than you apparently think. There's a large chain of suppliers and distributors to get things from the farm to your gut. Widespread chaos could cause significant disruption to that chain, and it's a downward spiral from there.

Silly me...I only have to walk about 100 yards out my back door to get to the garden. Then of course there are the deer that wander by each morning and evening to eat the feed I've put out for them.

 

[Moonbeam]

I got that beat. My food gets slid to me from under the door.

 

[shiner]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
I got that beat. My food gets slid to me from under the door.

Yeah, but when you bend over to get it Bubba sneaks up behind you and does unspeakable things.

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: OrByte
take away peoples social security and medicare and yes there will be civil unrest.

So what is the likely hood of that happening?

edit: What I mean to say is there are scenarios that could take place but not necessarily "Thunderdome" type stuff.


But if you think cities like LA or ATL or Houston are safe from any type of civil unrest you are kidding yourself.

I'm not scared of civil unrest from old people 🙂 It would be like the scooter episode of Seinfeld.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: shinerburke
Silly me...I only have to walk about 100 yards out my back door to get to the garden. Then of course there are the deer that wander by each morning and evening to eat the feed I've put out for them.

You're a tiny minority. As with money, most live hand to mouth in both bills and food. The average household doesn't have much food in its cupboards, so if there was a big hit to the supply chain for some reason, certain goods would quickly run out.

I don't think acceptance of the unlikelihood of these occurrences means that a person shouldn't prepare for them just in case. Like with keeping 6 months' food, what do you lose by keeping it? You'll end up eating it anyway, so keep it there. People in our society are so pampered by our contemporary life we don't know what it's been like for others recently, and even in the West. In WWII England wasn't invaded but still had plenty of food rationing. I bet those who had stockpiled and gotten ahead of the curve were happy they had.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
I got that beat. My food gets slid to me from under the door.

The prison of their own fears?

My response- As Williams says to Han-

H: We are all ready to win, just as we are born knowing only life. It is defeat that you must learn to prepare for.

W: Don't waste my time with it. When it comes, I won't even notice.

H: Oh? How so?

W: I'll be too busy looking gooood.

 

[ayabe]

Originally posted by: Genx87
My investment in an assault rifle may be the best return I see if all of this comes true.

Hope you got the optional bayonet, in case trench warfare breaks out. 😛

I've been tossing flashbangs out in the hallway lately when I need to get up to take a piss, just in case.

 

[shira]

Originally posted by: DAPUNISHER

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
I got that beat. My food gets slid to me from under the door.

The prison of their own fears?

My response- As Williams says to Han-

H: We are all ready to win, just as we are born knowing only life. It is defeat that you must learn to prepare for.

W: Don't waste my time with it. When it comes, I won't even notice.

H: Oh? How so?

W: I'll be too busy looking gooood.

Enter the Dragon?

 

[GTaudiophile]

So at what point does this all lead to the USA, Russia, etc. pushing "the button" to launch all nukes?

Any of you who have done policy debate in high school or college surely know that at all things end in nuclear armageddon.

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: DAPUNISHER

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
I got that beat. My food gets slid to me from under the door.

The prison of their own fears?

My response- As Williams says to Han-

H: We are all ready to win, just as we are born knowing only life. It is defeat that you must learn to prepare for.

W: Don't waste my time with it. When it comes, I won't even notice.

H: Oh? How so?

W: I'll be too busy looking gooood.

Hahahaha an Enter the Dragon quote in a P&N thread. You, my friend, win at the internet.

 

[Zebo]

Nothing to fear with prior proper planning.

Oh an Alchy I'll get a pic up but I'm on the way to lake to do some fishing. I'm already unemployed🙂

I withdraw myself forthwith from ATPN's sexist man though.

 

[GeezerMan]

The End is Near

A little humor to relieve the pressure.

 

[Thump553]

If you want to get depressed, google "percentage of us homes with negative equity." A couple of states are over 30%. Las Vegas is 58%. Heck, even my state (CT) which has few subprime mortgages and less than national rate unemployment (so far) is over 9%.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Originally posted by: BoberFett


Hahahaha an Enter the Dragon quote in a P&N thread. You, my friend, win at the internet.

LOL! *Bows to BoberFett, but is careful to look at him the entire time.* 😉


On topic: Zebo, Skoorb, etc. is right about the boyscout motto; it is never a bad idea to be prepared for whatever might come. I just refuse to let any of it ruin my happy disposition.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: DAPUNISHER

Originally posted by: BoberFett


Hahahaha an Enter the Dragon quote in a P&N thread. You, my friend, win at the internet.

LOL! *Bows to BoberFett, but is careful to look at him the entire time.* 😉


On topic: Zebo, Skoorb, etc. is right about the boyscout motto; it is never a bad idea to be prepared for whatever might come. I just refuse to let any of it ruin my happy disposition.

Really? Even when you're at the local bazaar bartering your last box of Uncle Bens for some dirty gauze to cover the bullet wound you just took during a mugging while you were trading some rabit pelts for a couple of old Tylenol?

 

[Jack Flash]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: DAPUNISHER

Originally posted by: BoberFett


Hahahaha an Enter the Dragon quote in a P&N thread. You, my friend, win at the internet.

LOL! *Bows to BoberFett, but is careful to look at him the entire time.* 😉


On topic: Zebo, Skoorb, etc. is right about the boyscout motto; it is never a bad idea to be prepared for whatever might come. I just refuse to let any of it ruin my happy disposition.

Really? Even when you're at the local bazaar bartering your last box of Uncle Bens for some dirty gauze to cover the bullet wound you just took during a mugging while you were trading some rabit pelts for a couple of old Tylenol?

Actually he will still just go to Walmart and spend his somewhat inflated money on tylenol and he will stock up on groceries. They've got Uncle Ben's BOGO! Score! And he will pick up a WOW timecard because fuck knows he's bored only working 4 days a week instead of 5 + overtime he used to.

And he'll buy faded glory jeans instead of Abercrombie. And the world will get through this business cycle just like the world does.

Really.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: BigDH01

Originally posted by: TheSlamma

Originally posted by: Genx87
My investment in an assault rifle may be the best return I see if all of this comes true.

Cause everyone is all of a sudden going to contract rabies and it's going to be an animalfest in the streets? 😕

Sounds like a republican wet dream.

Actually, I'm very concerned about human nature in times of economic hardship. I think if you lift the veil even slightly, you'll find that the shine of our civilized veneer doesn't run very deep. See the New York City blackout of 1977. Tough economic times combined with something as simple as a power outage resulted in chaos.

blackout of 2003

Looting

Incidents of looting were reported in Ottawa, Ontario and Brooklyn, New York. However, the looting and general civic disturbance was a fraction of that seen in the New York City blackout of 1977.

even NYC evolved

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: DAPUNISHER

Originally posted by: BoberFett


Hahahaha an Enter the Dragon quote in a P&N thread. You, my friend, win at the internet.

LOL! *Bows to BoberFett, but is careful to look at him the entire time.* 😉


On topic: Zebo, Skoorb, etc. is right about the boyscout motto; it is never a bad idea to be prepared for whatever might come. I just refuse to let any of it ruin my happy disposition.

Really? Even when you're at the local bazaar bartering your last box of Uncle Bens for some dirty gauze to cover the bullet wound you just took during a mugging while you were trading some rabit pelts for a couple of old Tylenol?

Hell no, I'm the Omega man bitches! I'll be eating fish, coconuts, citrus, pineapple, and surfing all day. While you vampiric bastages fight over a rat carcass :sun:

 

[alien42]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: BigDH01

Originally posted by: TheSlamma

Originally posted by: Genx87
My investment in an assault rifle may be the best return I see if all of this comes true.

Cause everyone is all of a sudden going to contract rabies and it's going to be an animalfest in the streets? 😕

Sounds like a republican wet dream.

Actually, I'm very concerned about human nature in times of economic hardship. I think if you lift the veil even slightly, you'll find that the shine of our civilized veneer doesn't run very deep. See the New York City blackout of 1977. Tough economic times combined with something as simple as a power outage resulted in chaos.

blackout of 2003

that was the first thing i thought of however there is a big difference between 2003 and now. there was still a strong sense of post 9/11 patriotism and togetherness that GWB had not yet destroyed and the economy was not turned upside down like it is currently.

 

[nobodyknows]

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: OrByte
take away peoples social security and medicare and yes there will be civil unrest.

So what is the likely hood of that happening?

edit: What I mean to say is there are scenarios that could take place but not necessarily "Thunderdome" type stuff.


But if you think cities like LA or ATL or Houston are safe from any type of civil unrest you are kidding yourself.

I'm not scared of civil unrest from old people 🙂 It would be like the scooter episode of Seinfeld.

Chuck Norris will be 69 this month.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: alien42
that was the first thing i thought of however there is a big difference between 2003 and now. there was still a strong sense of post 9/11 patriotism and togetherness that GWB had not yet destroyed and the economy was not turned upside down like it is currently.

They knew the lights would come back on. If they know they won't, watch out, people are animals.

Hell no, I'm the Omega man bitches! I'll be eating fish, coconuts, citrus, pineapple, and surfing all day. While you vampiric bastages fight over a rat carcass

I have a list on people of AT who have "prepared", including those with guns, money, etc. so that when the sh*t storm comes I can see them as caches to save my lazy ass for inadequate prep and/or bartering what I did save on living like a post-apocalypse king (think Lord Humongous but that pistol case is full of bullets and not almost out). Also, my gimp is not a little freaky gay guy with a forearm crossbow.

 

[blahblah99]

Originally posted by: GeezerMan
Link

not too cheery to read.


Thursday, March 5. 2009
Posted by Karl Denninger in Editorial at 09:57
What's Dead (Short Answer: All Of It)

Just so you have a short list of what's at stake if Washington DC doesn't change policy here and now (which means before the collapse in equities comes, which could start as soon as today, if the indicators I watch have any validity at all. For what its worth, those indicators are painting a picture of the Apocalypse that I simply can't believe, and they're showing it as an imminent event - like perhaps today imminent.)

* All pension funds, private and public, are done. If you are receiving one, you won't be. If you think you will in the future, you won't be. PBGC will fail as well. Pension funds will be forced to start eating their "seed corn" within the next 12 months and once that begins there is no way to recover.
* All annuities will be defaulted to the state insurance protection (if any) on them. The state insurance funds will be bankrupted and unable to be replenished. Essentially, all annuities are toast. Expect zero, be ecstatic if you do better. All insurance companies with material exposure to these obligations will go bankrupt, without exception. Some of these firms are dangerously close to this happening right here and now; the rest will die within the next 6-12 months. If you have other insured interests with these firms, be prepared to pay a LOT more with a new company that can't earn anything off investments, and if you have a claim in process at the time it happens, it won't get paid. The probability of you getting "boned" on any transaction with an insurance company is extremely high - I rate this risk in excess of 90%.
* The FDIC will be unable to cover bank failure obligations. They will attempt to do more of what they're doing now (raising insurance rates and doing special assessments) but will fail; the current path has no chance of success. Congress will backstop them (because they must lest shotguns come out) with disastrous results. In short, FDIC backstops will take precedence even over Social Security and Medicare.
* Government debt costs will ramp. This warning has already been issued and is being ignored by President Obama. When (not if) it happens debt-based Federal Funding will disappear. This leads to....
* Tax receipts are cratering and will continue to. I expect total tax receipts to fall to under $1 trillion within the next 12 months. Combined with the impossibility of continued debt issue (rollover will only remain possible at the short duration Treasury has committed to over the last ten years if they cease new issue) a 66% cut in the Federal Budget will become necessary. This will require a complete repudiation of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, a 50% cut in the military budget and a 50% across-the-board cut in all other federal programs. That will likely get close.
* Tax-deferred accounts will be seized to fund rollovers of Treasury debt at essentially zero coupon (interest). If you have a 401k, or what's left of it, or an IRA, consider it locked up in Treasuries; it's not yours any more. Count on this happening - it is essentially a certainty.
* Any firm with debt outstanding is currently presumed dead as the street presumption is that they have lied in some way. Expect at least 20% of the S&P 500 to fail within 12 months as a consequence of the complete and total lockup of all credit markets which The Fed will be unable to unlock or backstop. This will in turn lead to....
* The unemployed will have 5-10 million in direct layoffs added within the next 12 months. Collateral damage (suppliers, customers, etc) will add at least another 5-10 million workers to that, perhaps double that many. U-3 (official unemployment rate) will go beyond 15%, U-6 (broad form) will reach 30%.
* Civil unrest will break out before the end of the year. The Military and Guard will be called up to try to stop it. They won't be able to. Big cities are at risk of becoming a free-fire death zone. If you live in one, figure out how you can get out and live somewhere else if you detect signs that yours is starting to go "feral"; witness New Orleans after Katrina for how fast, and how bad, it can get.

The good news is that this process will clear The Bezzle out of the system.

The bad news is that you won't have a job, pension, annuity, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and, quite possibly, your life.

It really is that bleak folks, and it all goes back to Washington DC being unwilling to lock up the crooks, putting the market in the role it has always played - that of truth-finder, no matter how destructive that process is.

Only immediate action from Washington DC, taking the market's place, can stop this, and as I get ready to hit "send" I see the market rolling over again, now down more than 3% and flashing "crash imminent" warnings. You may be reading this too late for it to matter.

So... where did all that money go?

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: alien42

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: BigDH01

Originally posted by: TheSlamma

Originally posted by: Genx87
My investment in an assault rifle may be the best return I see if all of this comes true.

Cause everyone is all of a sudden going to contract rabies and it's going to be an animalfest in the streets? 😕

Sounds like a republican wet dream.

Actually, I'm very concerned about human nature in times of economic hardship. I think if you lift the veil even slightly, you'll find that the shine of our civilized veneer doesn't run very deep. See the New York City blackout of 1977. Tough economic times combined with something as simple as a power outage resulted in chaos.

blackout of 2003

that was the first thing i thought of however there is a big difference between 2003 and now. there was still a strong sense of post 9/11 patriotism and togetherness that GWB had not yet destroyed and the economy was not turned upside down like it is currently.

The 2003 economy wasn't all that great. NYC was still gathering steam for the debt runup after taking it in the nuts from the tech bust.

I was there, in 2003, interviewing at an i-bank as a debt analyst. It was my first time in NYC and I was in an elevator between the 83rd and 84th floor of the Empire State Building. After getting out of there I partied. People were great.

NYC of the 1970s was a cesspool of human filth, far different from what it is now.

Some cities might get bad, but not too horrible, especially considering the size and kit of the NYPD.

However, this whole thing is garbage. Denninger is a loon.