What would happen if Israel goes to war w/Iran?

[ericlp]

What happens affects you because so much of the worlds oil is shipped through the Persian Gulf. Can you imagine the ramifications of major disrubtion in oil through the gulf on the worlds economies. How would you like to see $6 gallon gasoline? So that is why we are much more concerned about stability in the gulf versus stability in African. Basically a major disrubtion could plunge the worlds economies back into a recission.

you got your shoes on? Why not walk to work? Take a bike? I'm sure you'll figure it out. If gas went up to 10 bucks 20 bucks a gallon wouldn't phase me. It would do the USA good to conserve on oil.

 

[GarfieldtheCat]

I really don't know what's holding them back. It's probably what the world would think of them if they attacked a country that can't fight.

I realize I am responding to an Anarchist420 post, which is never a good thing and most likely a waste of time.

But you are freaking insane if you think Iran "can't fight". As just one example, educate yourself and learn about the Iran-Iraq war.

Iran fought that for over 6 years, and had no problem getting a lot of their military killed fighting that war.

 

[EagleKeeper]

iran can fight a ground war.

They do not have blue water capability, nor any type of airforce.

they have air defense; provided by the Russians. However, this is the same source as the Syria advanced technology/state of the art SAMs.

Their only threat is ballistic missles (which do not always launch and have to be photoshopped for PR purposes) and shore-to-ship / mines to challenge the Gulf shipping.
A challenge to Gulf shipping could be determined to be an act of war against the world. Not smart to have happen when you are already inhot water over your tussle with nukes.

Mines are difficult to handle, but it was done prevously.
The shore-to-ship missles are succeptable to air strikes.
Once a missle is shot off; the launch site will be come unusable. Be it mobile, fixed or bunkered the site will be zerod in on via airstrikes

 

[Lemon law]

Although I think no one really knows what the Iranian self defense capacities are, but we certainly can't judge by the standards of the Iran Iraq war when Iran allowed the Shah of Iran's military to fall into rot and ruin. As Iran lost two full generations of men used as human waves because Iran could not beg or buy the arms needed to defend itself. But at least Ronald Reagan helped a little in a cross Ocean scandal named Iran Contra.

Since then, Iran has developed a thriving home grown industry able to develop mainly defensive and some offensive military capacity. And the 2005-6 Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon gave a small sneak peak of what Iranian anti tank missiles can do to state of the arts Israeli tanks. And Iran has certainly learned its lessons from Israeli strikes on Iraqi nuclear sites by burying their facilities deep and dispersing them widely. Meaning it would probalby takes weeks for Israeli to even dent Iranian Iranian nuclear capacity unless Israel uses nuclear powered bunker busters.

Meanwhile Iran has developed its own long enough range offensive missiles to hit Israel and if they come in high and fast, I doubt Israel's overhyped Iron dome could stop even 40% of them. But target # 1 is likely to become the Israeli nuclear reactor at Dismona.
Whiich was poorly constructed and already has developed major cracks in its containment dome. Just one hit and its likely to collapse. Iran also has low and slow long range cruise missiles.

But I think Common Courtesy has some major rose colored glasses on in terms of both Israeli air capacity and Iranian defensive and offensive capacity. Granted the Iranian air force has little to speak of, but if the Turkish air force comes in on the side of Iran, Israel may (a) Have little chance of flying a plane into Iranian air space. (b) Israel air sorties must sacrifice almost all self defense capacities to carry the bomb loads and can't use afterburners. But already Israel has recruited suicide pilots, and we already know only uncivilized Palestinian terrorists use such suicide bombing tactics.

But what we don't really know is how good Iranian air to ground and ground to shipe missiles are. But now that the Russians have declined to build an inadequate Syrian style
air defense system for Iran, Iran has already stated it plans to build its own. Meanwhile the Common Courtesy Rose colored glasses get really thick and for two reasons. (1) The assumption is that such missile launch sites will be major enterprizes, not easily mobile, meaning after one missile launch Israeli planes will wipe it out. (2) Given the fact that Iran has a 500 + mile coast line on the Persian gulf in terrain that provides natural defense, Israel would have to have hundred of planes in the air over the Iranian coast line at the same time to arrive in time to prevent multiple missile launches. And the fuel and bomb load to keep them aloft for any period of time. Something way beyond the capacity of Israeli IDF.

Thern there is the GWB overhyped terror terror that Iran is arming militants in any big way. Because if Iran so choose, they could of armed militants in both Iraq and Afghanistan and neither of those US military occupations would have remained tenable for even a few weeks. But if Israel sneal attacks Iran, the Iranian restraint would vanish, and Iran would likely start arming Hezbollah and Hamas in large quanities, turning the hunted into the hunters. We already know that Hamas in Gaza had zero to defend themselves with, but 200,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank would suddenly become very vulnerable. Forcing all Israeli planes back home, the complete deployment of the Israeli army, while palestinian militants would be peppering Israel ground based tanks and transport vehicles with constant bombardment.

In short, Israel would be damn foolish to ever think they could take on Iran and come out on the winning side.

But the biggest delusion of all would be to assume anyone in the world, except a very few pro Israeli fan clubbers would ever side with Israel if it ever sneak attacked Iran.

 

[JEDIYoda]

Although I think no one really knows what the Iranian self defense capacities are, but we certainly can't judge by the standards of the Iran Iraq war when Iran allowed the Shah of Iran's military to fall into rot and ruin. As Iran lost two full generations of men used as human waves because Iran could not beg or buy the arms needed to defend itself. But at least Ronald Reagan helped a little in a cross Ocean scandal named Iran Contra.

Since then, Iran has developed a thriving home grown industry able to develop mainly defensive and some offensive military capacity. And the 2005-6 Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon gave a small sneak peak of what Iranian anti tank missiles can do to state of the arts Israeli tanks. And Iran has certainly learned its lessons from Israeli strikes on Iraqi nuclear sites by burying their facilities deep and dispersing them widely. Meaning it would probalby takes weeks for Israeli to even dent Iranian Iranian nuclear capacity unless Israel uses nuclear powered bunker busters.

Meanwhile Iran has developed its own long enough range offensive missiles to hit Israel and if they come in high and fast, I doubt Israel's overhyped Iron dome could stop even 40% of them. But target # 1 is likely to become the Israeli nuclear reactor at Dismona.
Whiich was poorly constructed and already has developed major cracks in its containment dome. Just one hit and its likely to collapse. Iran also has low and slow long range cruise missiles.

But I think Common Courtesy has some major rose colored glasses on in terms of both Israeli air capacity and Iranian defensive and offensive capacity. Granted the Iranian air force has little to speak of, but if the Turkish air force comes in on the side of Iran, Israel may (a) Have little chance of flying a plane into Iranian air space. (b) Israel air sorties must sacrifice almost all self defense capacities to carry the bomb loads and can't use afterburners. But already Israel has recruited suicide pilots, and we already know only uncivilized Palestinian terrorists use such suicide bombing tactics.

But what we don't really know is how good Iranian air to ground and ground to shipe missiles are. But now that the Russians have declined to build an inadequate Syrian style
air defense system for Iran, Iran has already stated it plans to build its own. Meanwhile the Common Courtesy Rose colored glasses get really thick and for two reasons. (1) The assumption is that such missile launch sites will be major enterprizes, not easily mobile, meaning after one missile launch Israeli planes will wipe it out. (2) Given the fact that Iran has a 500 + mile coast line on the Persian gulf in terrain that provides natural defense, Israel would have to have hundred of planes in the air over the Iranian coast line at the same time to arrive in time to prevent multiple missile launches. And the fuel and bomb load to keep them aloft for any period of time. Something way beyond the capacity of Israeli IDF.

Thern there is the GWB overhyped terror terror that Iran is arming militants in any big way. Because if Iran so choose, they could of armed militants in both Iraq and Afghanistan and neither of those US military occupations would have remained tenable for even a few weeks. But if Israel sneal attacks Iran, the Iranian restraint would vanish, and Iran would likely start arming Hezbollah and Hamas in large quanities, turning the hunted into the hunters. We already know that Hamas in Gaza had zero to defend themselves with, but 200,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank would suddenly become very vulnerable. Forcing all Israeli planes back home, the complete deployment of the Israeli army, while palestinian militants would be peppering Israel ground based tanks and transport vehicles with constant bombardment.

In short, Israel would be damn foolish to ever think they could take on Iran and come out on the winning side.

But the biggest delusion of all would be to assume anyone in the world, except a very few pro Israeli fan clubbers would ever side with Israel if it ever sneak attacked Iran.

So Lemon what exactly was suppose to happen on the 27th of October if Israel failed to permanently stop the building of the settlements?

World condemation, embargos, etc..

According to my clocks it is now November 10th....
I waited an extra two weeks to see what was going to happen.....
Where is the wide spread world condemnation?
Why hasn`t the UN dismantled Israel?
Where is the embargos against Israel?
Where are the naval blockades?

 

[JEDIYoda]

But if Israel sneal attacks Iran, the Iranian restraint would vanish, and Iran would likely start arming Hezbollah and Hamas in large quanities, turning the hunted into the hunters. We already know that Hamas in Gaza had zero to defend themselves with, but 200,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank would suddenly become very vulnerable. Forcing all Israeli planes back home, the complete deployment of the Israeli army, while palestinian militants would be peppering Israel ground based tanks and transport vehicles with constant bombardment.

In short, Israel would be damn foolish to ever think they could take on Iran and come out on the winning side. <--- How so? None of what you said makes any sense except for in your pro-Iranian/Palestinian mind!


But the biggest delusion of all would be to assume anyone in the world, except a very few pro Israeli fan clubbers would ever side with Israel if it ever sneak attacked Iran. <--- no you are dilusional if you think the world approves at all of what Iran is doing . There already are nations that would bear a huge sigh of relief if israel attacked irans Nuclear facilities. In fact the world would sit idly bye and let it happen. Which is in direct contradiction to what you are saying. But you have a track record that is dismal and no reliable at all!! Take your prediction of dire consequences on October 27th if israel did not put a stop to the settlements....that was a funny prediction...hahaaaa
The bottom line is very simple. under the table nations would be partying over the fact that israel attacked Iran!! For appearance sake they would pretend to be dumbfounded and angry.....

So Lemon what exactly was suppose to happen on the 27th of October if Israel failed to permanently stop the building of the settlements?

World condemation, embargos, etc..

According to my clocks it is now November 10th....
I waited an extra two weeks to see what was going to happen.....
Where is the wide spread world condemnation?
Why hasn`t the UN dismantled Israel?
Where is the embargos against Israel?
Where are the naval blockades?

 

[EagleKeeper]

Although I think no one really knows what the Iranian self defense capacities are, but we certainly can't judge by the standards of the Iran Iraq war when Iran allowed the Shah of Iran's military to fall into rot and ruin. As Iran lost two full generations of men used as human waves because Iran could not beg or buy the arms needed to defend itself. But at least Ronald Reagan helped a little in a cross Ocean scandal named Iran Contra.

Since then, Iran has developed a thriving home grown industry able to develop mainly defensive and some offensive military capacity. And the 2005-6 Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon gave a small sneak peak of what Iranian anti tank missiles can do to state of the arts Israeli tanks.

It is not expected that anyone will attempt a ground invasion of Iran

And Iran has certainly learned its lessons from Israeli strikes on Iraqi nuclear sites by burying their facilities deep and dispersing them widely. Meaning it would probalby takes weeks for Israeli to even dent Iranian Iranian nuclear capacity unless Israel uses nuclear powered bunker busters.

do not count out Mossad. They know where the sites are located, probably have detailed blueprints and methods available to incapacitate them. Destruction is not needed - just make the sites unusable for a long time

Meanwhile Iran has developed its own long enough range offensive missiles to hit Israel and if they come in high and fast, I doubt Israel's overhyped Iron dome could stop even 40% of them. But target # 1 is likely to become the Israeli nuclear reactor at Dismona. Which was poorly constructed and already has developed major cracks in its containment dome. Just one hit and its likely to collapse. Iran also has low and slow long range cruise missiles.

This is suspect. I do not think that Iran has tested their long range missles, only medium range (which could not make it to Israel) They have also demostrated that they can not launch missles in an attack wave as planned.


But I think Common Courtesy has some major rose colored glasses on in terms of both Israeli air capacity and Iranian defensive and offensive capacity. Granted the Iranian air force has little to speak of, but if the Turkish air force comes in on the side of Iran, Israel may (a) Have little chance of flying a plane into Iranian air space. (b) Israel air sorties must sacrifice almost all self defense capacities to carry the bomb loads and can't use afterburners. But already Israel has recruited suicide pilots, and we already know only uncivilized Palestinian terrorists use such suicide bombing tactics.

Turkey has no desire to come into the fray. Why? - they have no real love for Iran. While they made noise for a couple of days on the blockade incident, nothing more has come of it. They know that they would get destroyed by the IAF

But what we don't really know is how good Iranian air to ground and ground to shipe missiles are. But now that the Russians have declined to build an inadequate Syrian style air defense system for Iran, Iran has already stated it plans to build its own.

How long do you think it takes to design, test and deploy an anti-air missle system from scratch. Not 3-6 months, one might get lucky in 3-6 years.

Meanwhile the Common Courtesy Rose colored glasses get really thick and for two reasons. (1) The assumption is that such missile launch sites will be major enterprizes, not easily mobile, meaning after one missile launch Israeli planes will wipe it out. (2) Given the fact that Iran has a 500 + mile coast line on the Persian gulf in terrain that provides natural defense, Israel would have to have hundred of planes in the air over the Iranian coast line at the same time to arrive in time to prevent multiple missile launches. And the fuel and bomb load to keep them aloft for any period of time. Something way beyond the capacity of Israeli IDF.

anti-ship missles are not small - they need a launcher. Any use will be consdier an act of war by Iran against the rest of the world. Israel will not be interested in the shipping and launches. That will be the interest of those that are being targetted in retaliation by Iran. The US Navy will have a carrier in the area and there will also be a CAP from ground based fighters on the other side of the Gulf. Those will be the missle hunters, not the IAF.

Iran will have been notified as soon as Israel attacks that attacks by Iran against shipping will be dealt with severly.

Radar and ground forces will be able to locate and destroy those launch sites


Thern there is the GWB overhyped terror terror that Iran is arming militants in any big way. Because if Iran so choose, they could of armed militants in both Iraq and Afghanistan and neither of those US military occupations would have remained tenable for even a few weeks. But if Israel sneal attacks Iran, the Iranian restraint would vanish, and Iran would likely start arming Hezbollah and Hamas in large quanities, turning the hunted into the hunters. We already know that Hamas in Gaza had zero to defend themselves with, but 200,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank would suddenly become very vulnerable. Forcing all Israeli planes back home, the complete deployment of the Israeli army, while palestinian militants would be peppering Israel ground based tanks and transport vehicles with constant bombardment.

In short, Israel would be damn foolish to ever think they could take on Iran and come out on the winning side.

But the biggest delusion of all would be to assume anyone in the world, except a very few pro Israeli fan clubbers would ever side with Israel if it ever sneak attacked Iran.

Should Iran enhance the Hamas and Hezbollah groups; it will be justification for Israel to clean house and to hell with the UN/Palestinian promise of good behavior. Israel is fed up with such hot air; those groups do not honor their words.

Lebanon, West Bank and Gaza civilians may be treated as 3 seperate groups; held accountable for what happens in their territories. Each will have to decide what they wish to expose themselves to; all three know what can happen.

 

[JEDIYoda]

Quoting:Bold lettering is Common Courtesy`s comments!
Lemon law ----
Although I think no one really knows what the Iranian self defense capacities are, but we certainly can't judge by the standards of the Iran Iraq war when Iran allowed the Shah of Iran's military to fall into rot and ruin. As Iran lost two full generations of men used as human waves because Iran could not beg or buy the arms needed to defend itself. But at least Ronald Reagan helped a little in a cross Ocean scandal named Iran Contra.

Since then, Iran has developed a thriving home grown industry able to develop mainly defensive and some offensive military capacity. And the 2005-6 Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon gave a small sneak peak of what Iranian anti tank missiles can do to state of the arts Israeli tanks.

It is not expected that anyone will attempt a ground invasion of Iran

And Iran has certainly learned its lessons from Israeli strikes on Iraqi nuclear sites by burying their facilities deep and dispersing them widely. Meaning it would probalby takes weeks for Israeli to even dent Iranian Iranian nuclear capacity unless Israel uses nuclear powered bunker busters.

do not count out Mossad. They know where the sites are located, probably have detailed blueprints and methods available to incapacitate them. Destruction is not needed - just make the sites unusable for a long time

Meanwhile Iran has developed its own long enough range offensive missiles to hit Israel and if they come in high and fast, I doubt Israel's overhyped Iron dome could stop even 40&#37; of them. But target # 1 is likely to become the Israeli nuclear reactor at Dismona. Which was poorly constructed and already has developed major cracks in its containment dome. Just one hit and its likely to collapse. Iran also has low and slow long range cruise missiles.

This is suspect. I do not think that Iran has tested their long range missles, only medium range (which could not make it to Israel) They have also demostrated that they can not launch missles in an attack wave as planned.


But I think Common Courtesy has some major rose colored glasses on in terms of both Israeli air capacity and Iranian defensive and offensive capacity. Granted the Iranian air force has little to speak of, but if the Turkish air force comes in on the side of Iran, Israel may (a) Have little chance of flying a plane into Iranian air space. (b) Israel air sorties must sacrifice almost all self defense capacities to carry the bomb loads and can't use afterburners. But already Israel has recruited suicide pilots, and we already know only uncivilized Palestinian terrorists use such suicide bombing tactics.

Turkey has no desire to come into the fray. Why? - they have no real love for Iran. While they made noise for a couple of days on the blockade incident, nothing more has come of it. They know that they would get destroyed by the IAF

But what we don't really know is how good Iranian air to ground and ground to shipe missiles are. But now that the Russians have declined to build an inadequate Syrian style air defense system for Iran, Iran has already stated it plans to build its own.

How long do you think it takes to design, test and deploy an anti-air missle system from scratch. Not 3-6 months, one might get lucky in 3-6 years.

Meanwhile the Common Courtesy Rose colored glasses get really thick and for two reasons. (1) The assumption is that such missile launch sites will be major enterprizes, not easily mobile, meaning after one missile launch Israeli planes will wipe it out. (2) Given the fact that Iran has a 500 + mile coast line on the Persian gulf in terrain that provides natural defense, Israel would have to have hundred of planes in the air over the Iranian coast line at the same time to arrive in time to prevent multiple missile launches. And the fuel and bomb load to keep them aloft for any period of time. Something way beyond the capacity of Israeli IDF.

anti-ship missles are not small - they need a launcher. Any use will be consdier an act of war by Iran against the rest of the world. Israel will not be interested in the shipping and launches. That will be the interest of those that are being targetted in retaliation by Iran. The US Navy will have a carrier in the area and there will also be a CAP from ground based fighters on the other side of the Gulf. Those will be the missle hunters, not the IAF.

Iran will have been notified as soon as Israel attacks that attacks by Iran against shipping will be dealt with severly.

Radar and ground forces will be able to locate and destroy those launch sitesThern there is the GWB overhyped terror terror that Iran is arming militants in any big way. Because if Iran so choose, they could of armed militants in both Iraq and Afghanistan and neither of those US military occupations would have remained tenable for even a few weeks. But if Israel sneal attacks Iran, the Iranian restraint would vanish, and Iran would likely start arming Hezbollah and Hamas in large quanities, turning the hunted into the hunters. We already know that Hamas in Gaza had zero to defend themselves with, but 200,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank would suddenly become very vulnerable. Forcing all Israeli planes back home, the complete deployment of the Israeli army, while palestinian militants would be peppering Israel ground based tanks and transport vehicles with constant bombardment.

In short, Israel would be damn foolish to ever think they could take on Iran and come out on the winning side.

But the biggest delusion of all would be to assume anyone in the world, except a very few pro Israeli fan clubbers would ever side with Israel if it ever sneak attacked Iran.

Should Iran enhance the Hamas and Hezbollah groups; it will be justification for Israel to clean house and to hell with the UN/Palestinian promise of good behavior. Israel is fed up with such hot air; those groups do not honor their words.

Lebanon, West Bank and Gaza civilians may be treated as 3 seperate groups; held accountable for what happens in their territories. Each will have to decide what they wish to expose themselves to; all three know what can happen.

All the above still doesn`t answer....27th October???

So Lemon what exactly was suppose to happen on the 27th of October if Israel failed to permanently stop the building of the settlements?

World condemation, embargos, etc..

According to my clocks it is now November 10th....
I waited an extra two weeks to see what was going to happen.....
Where is the wide spread world condemnation?
Why hasn`t the UN dismantled Israel?
Where is the embargos against Israel?
Where are the naval blockades?

 

[Lemon law]

In terms of October 27'th, the Arab League and other entities have voluntarily kicked that can down the road past the US mid-terms.

And JediYoda, while you are assuming the status quo will last forever, if you do some reading on international events, you would discover events are starting to move toward a Palestinian State with or without Israeli co-operation.

One option is for the UN to unilaterally create a Palestinian State, and that would totally
destroy any Israeli charades on building in such territories.

Exactly how events play out may be beyond prediction, but as the end game approaches, its almost impossible to predict Israel will long be able to stop a Palestinian State.

But silly me, I thouight this thread was about Israel providing the final solution to the Iranian problem.

 

[EagleKeeper]

What events have happened which have any impact since the Palestinians walked out of the peace conference because Israel wouild not play their game?

You were the fist person in the thread that brought the Palestinian issue up in post #54 and agin in #59 & #79.
Only then did JediYoda reference them in asking you a question.

 

[JEDIYoda]

In terms of October 27'th, the Arab League and other entities have voluntarily kicked that can down the road past the US mid-terms.

And JediYoda, while you are assuming the status quo will last forever, if you do some reading on international events, <-- reading the same blatantly biased articles you read or that you make up??
you would discover events are starting to move toward a Palestinian State with or without Israeli co-operation. <---- what you fail to understand is that I have always said the palestinians are their own worse enemy! With said I believe you are nieve to believe the palestinians will ever have a state of their own. For that to happen Hamas IMO will need to be taken completely out of the picture...perhaps neutralized is the better word!!

One option is for the UN to unilaterally create a Palestinian State, and that would totally
destroy any Israeli charades on building in such territories. <-- that will not happen unless your friends in Hamas have a change of heart about Israel!!

Exactly how events play out may be beyond prediction, but as the end game approaches, its almost impossible to predict Israel will long be able to stop a Palestinian State.

But silly me,
I thouight this thread was about Israel providing the final solution to the Iranian problem.

Yes Silly you-- You were the fist person in the thread that brought the Palestinian issue up in post #54 and agin in #59 & #79.
Only then did I reference them in asking you a question.....

 

[Lemon law]

Wow wow and wow, I am the rascal that brought the Palestinian issue up in post #54 and agin in #59 & #79.

A clearly earth shattering event that the entire world must pay any attention to. I am somewhat sure that Jedi Yoda is correct, and that Obama, the Palestinian authority, the EU, and all other entities are saying, curses, Lemon Law fucked it up again, and therefore Israel will win again.

But so go Israeli fan clubber delusions, that if they can somewhat poo poo little ole me,
all the rest of the real world realities will some how go away.

But out of curiosity, which of my posts was it that screwed the pooch and saved Israel, was it post #54, 59, or 73. My ego is somewhat sure the world really wonders.

 

[JEDIYoda]

Wow wow and wow, I am the rascal that brought the Palestinian issue up in post #54 and agin in #59 & #79.

A clearly earth shattering event that the entire world must pay any attention to. I am somewhat sure that Jedi Yoda is correct, and that Obama, the Palestinian authority, the EU, and all other entities are saying, curses, Lemon Law fucked it up again, and therefore Israel will win again.

But so go Israeli fan clubber delusions, that if they can somewhat poo poo little ole me,
all the rest of the real world realities will some how go away.

But out of curiosity, which of my posts was it that screwed the pooch and saved Israel, was it post #54, 59, or 73. My ego is somewhat sure the world really wonders.

So you must be using the stronger variety of mushrooms...
I see you copntinue to be dilusional conbcerning what exactly you WISH would happen concerning Israel and the Palestinians and your buddys in Hamas...

To date none and I repeat none of your dire prediction concerning world opinion and israel have come to pass.

You want the Palestininas to have a state of there own! So do most of us on these boards.
But once they do have a state if Hamas is NOT reigned in and the other groups that do not desire there to be a state then nobody not even the Palestinians or your Palestinian parents can complain when Israel gets attacked, the gloves are off so to speak....
So be careful what you wis...opps halucinate for...

 

[SamurAchzar]

Although I think no one really knows what the Iranian self defense capacities are, but we certainly can't judge by the standards of the Iran Iraq war when Iran allowed the Shah of Iran's military to fall into rot and ruin. As Iran lost two full generations of men used as human waves because Iran could not beg or buy the arms needed to defend itself. But at least Ronald Reagan helped a little in a cross Ocean scandal named Iran Contra.

Since then, Iran has developed a thriving home grown industry able to develop mainly defensive and some offensive military capacity. And the 2005-6 Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon gave a small sneak peak of what Iranian anti tank missiles can do to state of the arts Israeli tanks. And Iran has certainly learned its lessons from Israeli strikes on Iraqi nuclear sites by burying their facilities deep and dispersing them widely. Meaning it would probalby takes weeks for Israeli to even dent Iranian Iranian nuclear capacity unless Israel uses nuclear powered bunker busters.

Meanwhile Iran has developed its own long enough range offensive missiles to hit Israel and if they come in high and fast, I doubt Israel's overhyped Iron dome could stop even 40&#37; of them. But target # 1 is likely to become the Israeli nuclear reactor at Dismona.
Whiich was poorly constructed and already has developed major cracks in its containment dome. Just one hit and its likely to collapse. Iran also has low and slow long range cruise missiles.

But I think Common Courtesy has some major rose colored glasses on in terms of both Israeli air capacity and Iranian defensive and offensive capacity. Granted the Iranian air force has little to speak of, but if the Turkish air force comes in on the side of Iran, Israel may (a) Have little chance of flying a plane into Iranian air space. (b) Israel air sorties must sacrifice almost all self defense capacities to carry the bomb loads and can't use afterburners. But already Israel has recruited suicide pilots, and we already know only uncivilized Palestinian terrorists use such suicide bombing tactics.

But what we don't really know is how good Iranian air to ground and ground to shipe missiles are. But now that the Russians have declined to build an inadequate Syrian style
air defense system for Iran, Iran has already stated it plans to build its own. Meanwhile the Common Courtesy Rose colored glasses get really thick and for two reasons. (1) The assumption is that such missile launch sites will be major enterprizes, not easily mobile, meaning after one missile launch Israeli planes will wipe it out. (2) Given the fact that Iran has a 500 + mile coast line on the Persian gulf in terrain that provides natural defense, Israel would have to have hundred of planes in the air over the Iranian coast line at the same time to arrive in time to prevent multiple missile launches. And the fuel and bomb load to keep them aloft for any period of time. Something way beyond the capacity of Israeli IDF.

Thern there is the GWB overhyped terror terror that Iran is arming militants in any big way. Because if Iran so choose, they could of armed militants in both Iraq and Afghanistan and neither of those US military occupations would have remained tenable for even a few weeks. But if Israel sneal attacks Iran, the Iranian restraint would vanish, and Iran would likely start arming Hezbollah and Hamas in large quanities, turning the hunted into the hunters. We already know that Hamas in Gaza had zero to defend themselves with, but 200,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank would suddenly become very vulnerable. Forcing all Israeli planes back home, the complete deployment of the Israeli army, while palestinian militants would be peppering Israel ground based tanks and transport vehicles with constant bombardment.

In short, Israel would be damn foolish to ever think they could take on Iran and come out on the winning side.

But the biggest delusion of all would be to assume anyone in the world, except a very few pro Israeli fan clubbers would ever side with Israel if it ever sneak attacked Iran.

Man, you really are dumb. There's not a single speck of reality in this post. Not with the "Iranian anti tank missiles" (actually Russian Kornets), not with the Israeli Iron Dome (that's used against rockets and mortars; ballistic missile interception is taken care of by Arrow and Patriot batteries, together with US sea-based forced equipped with SM-3).

Obviously, there is firm evidence that Iran already arms Iraqi terror groups (as exposed in Wikileaks; Obama didn't want this out to allow diplomacy with Iran to continue), and most of the Hizballah and Hamas bound weapons come from Iran.

I did like the bit about Israeli suicide pilots, though, as well as Turkey fighting Israel over Iran. And of course how could I forget the bit about the world nations uniting against Israel (because Iran has many friends, right?). That certainly improves your credibility.

This is a gem:

We already know that Hamas in Gaza had zero to defend themselves with, but 200,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank would suddenly become very vulnerable. Forcing all Israeli planes back home, the complete deployment of the Israeli army, while palestinian militants would be peppering Israel ground based tanks and transport vehicles with constant bombardment.

Israel would need F16's to protect the settlers against Palestinian rage? Or is Israel going to strike Iran with Apaches?

Stupid, stupid, stupid

 

[Lemon law]

Don't be stupid Sammy, F-16 planes can't protect settlers on the ground when the terrorists are armed with small shoulder fired missiles.Especially if the terrorists get in among the houses, all planes can do is indiscriminately bomb the settlers they are trying to protect.

It takes ground power to protect such targets, and if terrorists have the weapons to stop tanks and soldiers from arriving, the settlers are largely sitting ducks. Iran certainly has the capacity to arm the Palestinians in a big way and every reason to do so If Israel sneak attacks Iran first.

In other words big strong Israel maintains itself by not giving others a fighting chance. But if Israel starts a war with Iran, Iran has a lot of ways to really hurt if not outright destroy Israel in the end.

At best Israel would be in the position of the Japanese in 1941 when they attacked Pearl Harbor, at best it would buy Israel the control over their immediate neighborhood in a 200 mile radius, but wait, Israel already has that. Plus the Japanese could field a substantial army with more men at arms than the entire population of Israel.