Question What will the CPU industry marketshare look like in the future? The Rise of ARM?

[FlameTail]

As you all know, Qualcomm launched their Snapdragon X chips recently. Microsoft made a big deal about them at their recent event. All the new Copilot+ PCs are exclusively powered by these Snapdragon X chips. Microsoft has made a big commitment to Windows-on-ARM, and it seems 2024 will be the year Windows-on-ARM takes off.

Right now, ARM commands only about 10% marketshare in CPUs.

Mercury Research believes that Arm system-on-chips (SoCs) commanded 10.6% of PC market share in Q3 2023, a nice result compared to 2020 (between 2% and 3%), but well below a 14.6% share they had in the same quarter a year ago. Meanwhile, Intel sold 70% of client CPUs in Q3 2023, whereas AMD's share on the market of client PC processors was 19.4%, based on the numbers published earlier this week.

Arm, Apple's PC Market Share Shrinks as x86 Rebounds: Mercury Research

Arm's SoCs were in 10.6% of PCs in Q3 2023.

www.tomshardware.com

And the majority of which are Apple Silicon;

The lion's share of Arm-based processors for PCs are shipped by Apple inside Macs. There are also systems based on Qualcomm's Snapdragon SoCs for laptops as well as cheap Chromebooks running processors from a variety of suppliers including Qualcomm and MediaTek.

But the non-Apple ARM CPU marketshare is set to grow exponentially in the coming years for several reasons:

• Qualcomm's launch of their Snapdragon X PC processors

• Microsoft's big push for Windows-on-ARM

• Qualcomm-Microsoft WoA exclusivity agreement is rumoured to end this year, which would allow other hardware vendors to make silicon for WoA

Windows on Arm exclusivity may be a thing of the past soon — Arm CEO confirms Qualcomm's agreement with Microsoft expires this year

Opening the doors for other manufacturers, such as AMD or Nvidia

www.tomshardware.com

• Nvidia is set to enter the PC CPU industry next year.

https://www.reddit.com/r/hardware/comments/1cxi3ez/jenhsun_does_nvidia_have_a_place_in_the_ai_pc

Exclusive: Nvidia to make Arm-based PC chips in major new challenge to Intel

Nvidia dominates the market for AI computing chips. Now it is coming after Intel’s longtime stronghold.

www.reuters.com

MediaTek ARM PC processor reportedly under development in partnership with NVIDIA for potential 2025 launch

MediaTek might be planning to challenge the Snapdragon X Elite in the Windows PC realm as a new rumor claims that the company is collaborating with NVIDIA for an AI PC processor. Unfortunately, the SoC could be costly for OEMs to acquire, potentially making consumer devices powered by the chip...

www.notebookcheck.net

• AMD is rumoured to be working on an ARM APU (codename: Sound Wave)

AMD next-gen "Sound Wave" APU spotted, might be using Zen6 architecture - VideoCardz.com

AMD Sound Wave rumored to be next-gen Zen6 APU AMD said to be working on a new APU series based on 3nm node. Gamm0burst is a site specializing in data mining, with particular focus on LinkedIn profiles of people working for major semiconductor companies. In the latest update, it is revealed that...

videocardz.com

• Intel was recently banned from selling their CPUs to Huawei. Huawei sells a range of PCs, notably their Matebook laptops. So this is a substantial loss for them. There are rumours that Huawei is planning supplant Intel CPUs with their own in house ARM-based Kirin-X processors.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Weiterleitungshinweis

• There are rumours that Samung is designing their in-house Exynos chips for WoA PCs. These will probably be used in their own Galaxybook laptops.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1793820656494346258

• ARM is developing the Cortex X5 CPU core, rumoured to be the first clean-sheet CPU design since Cortex A76. The Cortex X5 is said to be a true desktop-class core, bringing a huge IPC uplift that will eliminate the gap with Apple/Qualcomm's custom ARM core designs. Nvidia, Mediatek, AMD and others will most likely leverage the Cortex X5 design for their SoCs.

RESEARCH NOTE: Arm’s “Blackhawk” CPU Is An Audacious Plan To Have The Best Smartphone CPU Core This Year

For years now, there has been what I consider a healthy, competitive tension between Arm CPU instruction set licensees and Arm’s pe-packaged and pre-validated IP licensees. (I am sure some licensees would challenge me on “healthy” given Apple’s performance.) I think it made sense that Arm would...

moorinsightsstrategy.com

Considering this explosion of ARM into the PC industry in the coming few years, it raises the important question of what will the PC CPU industry look like in the future? In 5 years? In 10 years?

Counterpoint Research projects that ARM will have 25% CPU marketshare by 2027;

Personal computers (PCs) based on Arm architecture will grow in popularity and their market share will almost double from 14% now to 25% by 2027,

https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insights/arm-based-pcs-to-nearly-double-market-share-by-2027/

 

[SteinFG]

Feels like this is the same thread as https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/x86-license-value-quickly-dropping.2619422/

 

[FlameTail]

Semiaccurate also recently put out two articles.

Microsoft Absolutely Screws Intel and AMD Over AI PCs

It looks like Microsoft is turning on Intel and AMD over AI PCs.

semiaccurate.com

Microsoft Throws Qualcomm Under The Bus Too

Microsoft seems to be on a roll of late stabbing all of their ‘partners’ in the back.

semiaccurate.com

The TLDR is that Microsoft threw Intel and AMD under the bus, to promote their valued partner Qualcomm's ARM-based Snapdragon for their recent Copilot+ PC debut. But apparently Microsoft has already thrown Qualcomm under the bus too, to welcome a new valued partner on board:

NVIDIA.

 

[FlameTail]

Feels like this is the same thread as https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/x86-license-value-quickly-dropping.2619422/

That seems to be more focusing on the x86 side. I want to talk more about the ARM side specifically.

 

[FlameTail]

The TLDR is that Microsoft threw Intel and AMD under the bus, to promote their valued partner Qualcomm's ARM-based Snapdragon for their recent Copilot+ PC debut. But apparently Microsoft has already thrown Qualcomk under the bus too, to welcome a new valued partner on board:

NVIDIA

This is kinda frightening. I foresee a possibilty that ARM PCs will become a Qualcomm/Nvidia duopoly, just like how x86 PCs are a Intel/AMD duopoly.

I hope that does not happen.

 

[coercitiv]

Don't know about the ARM rise, but threads about ARM future dominance based on PPT slides are indeed rising exponentially. Keep in mind we are still talking about a company that failed to properly introduce ARM on Win PCs the first time, in a time when both Intel and AMD had weaker focus on mobile products. (yes you can have your pick between QC and MS here)

Wait to see how the hardware lives up to the claims. Wait and see the software synergy. Wait and see how QC follows up with new gen products and support. Huge armies have fallen to lack of leadership vision and determination. In this regard, I have yet to see signs of anything special from QC and MS.

 

[FlameTail]

Wait to see how the hardware lives up to the claims. Wait and see the software synergy. Wait and see how QC follows up with new gen products and support.

Agreed on all points.

In this regard, I have yet to see signs of anything special from QC and MS.

I have watched the Surface Keynote, and been following the Microsoft Build announcements. Perhaps you haven't been following those announcements?

• All major laptop OEMs have launched devices with new QC chips. Over 20 design wins.
• All those designs were presented at the MS Event, and pre-orders have been announced for almost all of them. They will be launching on June 18th. This is clearly a cohesive and organised effort.
• New Prism emulator for WoA. Microsoft claims it's as good as Rosetta2.
• Announcements about a large number of apps already ported to ARM, and more incoming soon.
• Qualcomm is upstreaming Linux support for X Elite. So these new ARM chips aren't going to be limited to Windows
• New Snapdragon Dev Kit box
• Microsoft has claimed their new Surface Laptop 7 (with the X Elite chip) has 20% better battery life than the M3 Macbook Air

As I replied to the previous point, we will have to see how these announcements actually pan out. But I must say I am generally impressed.

Also you only talked about Qualcomm. What about the other vendors- Nvidia, Mediatek, Samsung, AMD? All of them are working on ARM PC chips.

 

[soresu]

But apparently Microsoft has already thrown Qualcomm under the bus too, to welcome a new valued partner on board:

NVIDIA.

Not a new situation there at all.

Microsoft seem to have no problem favoring the party with more money to spread around, even to the point of pulling the rug out from under the rest without warning.

 

[soresu]

• Qualcomm is upstreaming Linux support for X Elite. So these new ARM chips aren't going to be limited to Windows
• New Snapdragon Dev Kit box

Give it too meeeeee....

My Odroid N2+ is OK, but it's not exactly blowing anyones skirt up outside of Kodi/CoreELEC.

Would be nice to have something a bit meatier, tho I doubt that dev kit is silent 😭

 

[FlameTail]

Hypothetical question:

Will a Nvidia PC SoC have an NPU?

Nvidia already integrates Tensor cores into their GPUs, which effectively performs the same function as an NPU.

 

[soresu]

• New Prism emulator for WoA. Microsoft claims it's as good as Rosetta2.

They need to fix their gfx API translation layers too if they ever want legacy games that aren't decades old running good on WoA.

Their XonD12 layers are apparently pitifully optimised compared to Zink and DXVK running on Linux.

(still not even got confirmation on WoA SD Adreno GPU Vulkan drivers for that matter - the major open source low lvl API shouldn't need to be translated to DX12)

They also need to get more native software as emulation doesn't come free in battery use.

The fact that they have to tout a new x86 emulator at this point is a less than subtle hint that their efforts canvassing software partners for WoA ports is not going as well as it has been for Apple/MacOS, or at the very least they still have a ways to go.

 

[soresu]

Will a Nvidia PC SoC have an NPU?

Nvidia already integrates Tensor cores into their GPUs, which effectively performs the same function as an NPU.

Just answered your own question - if it's good enough for every other platform it's good enough for their WoA ambitions.

 

[FlameTail]

Just answered your own question - if it's good enough for every other platform it's good enough for their WoA ambitions.

But the entire industry has been hyping up NPUs. It's at the center of the AI PC craze. So the Nvidia SoC not having an NPU would clash with the AI PC marketing campaign Microsoft has been building up.

I am thinking there might be a possibility that Nvidia could remove the Tensor cores from the GPU and put them in a separate unit, calling it the NPU.

 

[soresu]

But the entire industry has been hyping up NPUs

Yes, and even Qualcomm are kinda playing on that.

Their Snapdragon 'NPU' is basically just their latest incarnation of Hexagon DSP µArch with some extra bits.

Likewise nVidia can just rebrand their tensor cores in markets that don't really care about gaming.

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

Hypothetical question:

Will a Nvidia PC SoC have an NPU?

Nvidia already integrates Tensor cores into their GPUs, which effectively performs the same function as an NPU.

I doubt. Nvidia can just use the Tensor Cores on the GPU.

 

[coercitiv]

Perhaps you haven't been following those announcements?

Oh, you sweet summer child. The wolves have shiny new outfits and all you see is electric sheep.

 

[branch_suggestion]

Every time M$ has tried to expand their client TAM beyond x86 PC's, they have failed.
Satay Nutella is desperate to finally break the curse, all I behold is an abomination.

 

[Tup3x]

Every time M$ has tried to expand their client TAM beyond x86 PC's, they have failed.
Satay Nutella is desperate to finally break the curse, all I behold is an abomination.

I don't think their previous attempts are even remotely comparable to current situation. Their entire consumer Surface lineup uses what CPU now? That should tell something.

 

[FlameTail]

I don't think their previous attempts are even remotely comparable to current situation. Their entire consumer Surface lineup uses what CPU now? That should tell something.

Even better-

Business gets Snapdragon models as well (alongside Intel ones), while the consumer versions are exclusively Snapdragon.

 

[branch_suggestion]

I don't think their previous attempts are even remotely comparable to current situation. Their entire consumer Surface lineup uses what CPU now? That should tell something.

Because of:
1. Irrational obsession with ARM and not the fact Intel stagnated for a very long time, also no AMD cause MDF.
2. The NPU standard that AMD and Intel will meet shortly, whether they make it back into the Surface lineup is whatever, it is a vanity project at the end of the day.
Microsoft operates on chasing emerging markets and turning it into a monopoly, Windows remains the only time they actually pulled it off.

 

[coercitiv]

I don't think their previous attempts are even remotely comparable to current situation. Their entire consumer Surface lineup uses what CPU now? That should tell something.

Maybe this time they're serious about it, but considering their past actions, a change in behavior today is not a promise for tomorrow. MS will do what they think is good for them short term, that's all that matters, and the direction the ecosystem is only a secondary goal at best. Keep in mind it's the same company that will curse us with a Copilot key on most new laptop designs.

I'm purposely delaying a laptop purchase to wait for some of the new toys coming in H2, and I'm very open to an ARM machine since most of my work is done in browser engines nowadays. If chromium works like a charm then I'm probably 90% there. I would definitely like to see the promise of Nuvia materialize in a mature Windows experience, but I'm not holding my breath because some exec knows how to smile during keynotes.

We're close to independent reviews, let's see the receipts before estimating the slope of ARM adoption in the PC space.

 

[SarahKerrigan]

Hypothetical question:

Will a Nvidia PC SoC have an NPU?

Nvidia already integrates Tensor cores into their GPUs, which effectively performs the same function as an NPU.

I'd expect it to use the same DLA as the Tegra family.

 

[Tup3x]

Maybe this time they're serious about it, but considering their past actions, a change in behavior today is not a promise for tomorrow. MS will do what they think is good for them short term, that's all that matters, and the direction the ecosystem is only a secondary goal at best. Keep in mind it's the same company that will curse us with a Copilot key on most new laptop designs.

I'm purposely delaying a laptop purchase to wait for some of the new toys coming in H2, and I'm very open to an ARM machine since most of my work is done in browser engines nowadays. If chromium works like a charm then I'm probably 90% there. I would definitely like to see the promise of Nuvia materialize in a mature Windows experience, but I'm not holding my breath because some exec knows how to smile during keynotes.

We're close to independent reviews, let's see the receipts before estimating the slope of ARM adoption in the PC space.

I get a new work laptop but I'm waiting for new stuff (well, basically X Elite and Zen 5 - doesn't look like Lunar Lake is going to make it in time). All software that I use is available natively for ARM so no issues there (I mostly use WSL2 Ubuntu for actual development anyway). Only problem is FortiClient VPN but as far as I know the Windows Store plugin should work on ARM machines too (I use it currently too - I don't like bloatware, so they can keep their client).

 

[Doug S]

They need to fix their gfx API translation layers too if they ever want legacy games that aren't decades old running good on WoA.

Their XonD12 layers are apparently pitifully optimised compared to Zink and DXVK running on Linux.

(still not even got confirmation on WoA SD Adreno GPU Vulkan drivers for that matter - the major open source low lvl API shouldn't need to be translated to DX12)

They also need to get more native software as emulation doesn't come free in battery use.

The fact that they have to tout a new x86 emulator at this point is a less than subtle hint that their efforts canvassing software partners for WoA ports is not going as well as it has been for Apple/MacOS, or at the very least they still have a ways to go.

Microsoft has different needs from their emulator than Apple did with Rosetta2. For Apple this was a temporary solution. They needed to have it to prove people could buy the new Macs without waiting on developers, that's it. Yeah, there are some Mac users with old applications that are no longer supported (or they aren't paying for an upgrade) that they still run under Rosetta2. But at this point, most are running all native and Rosetta2 is no longer relevant for them.

Microsoft intends to support both x86 and ARM, so their emulator has to be in this for the long haul. Yeah, they will want developers to build for both platforms, but many will take a wait and see attitude because Microsoft has pushed ARM before. Back in the Windows 8 days they kinda sort of did in a halfass way. More recently with Qualcomm, but still not fully engaged. People here seem to want to believe that now, finally, Microsoft is really all-in this time but if it fails to engage with customers and win enough market share they'll lose interest, again. That doesn't even count all the previous non-x86 platforms they supported then dropped dating back to early Windows NT days.

If I was a developer I would take a wait and see attitude - I'd know people could still run my application via emulation, so why worry about doing an ARM version unless the production of a fat binary is completely automated and works so well I don't even need to test on an ARM PC? Microsoft can engage with developers all they want encouraging ARM ports, but until they see themselves losing money because they don't have it, or Microsoft makes it so seamless they'd have to go out of their way to NOT to do a port, a lot of them are going to sit on the sidelines.

The better the x86 emulation is, the less incentive developers have to port when x86 is still going to be around. Developers couldn't do that on the Mac, because they knew x86 was going to be gone for good.

 

[adroc_thurston]

They need to fix their gfx API translation layers too if they ever want legacy games that aren't decades old running good on WoA.

Their XonD12 layers are apparently pitifully optimised compared to Zink and DXVK running on Linux.

You also need Qualcomm to have good drivers.