What will it take for West to get involved in Georgia?

[K1052]

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp
I dunno, maybe West will get involved in Georgia if Georgians start shelling cities full of civilians?
Oh wait, nope, but thankfully Russia did.

Of course Russia arming the separatists in the first place and creating instability in the region couldn't benefit them in the least...

Putin is misunderstood I guess, he's actually a humanitarian.

Ohh, poor Georgians don't like fighting armed people. So much easier to just shell civilians. Russia armed separatist so they could defend themselves exactly against the type of genocide that Georgia wanted to unleash with its shelling of a city full of civilians. Too bad they overplayed their hand, again.

Russia armed the separatists for their own interests and have stoked the conflict while trying to play the innocent mediator/protector. The Georgians certainly haven't helped the issue by indulging some of the goading, nor the South Ossetians by attacking the Georgians.

Russia is exploiting both sides for its own ends.

Georgia armed itself, so Russia armed the separatists to keep the balance. And good thing they did, because otherwise Georgians would be massacring even more civilians if they weren't facing any resistance, and would have overran the whole province and finished ethnic cleansing before the Russians arrived. Georgians were massing on South Ossetian border. Even if you buy they were attacked first, it would have been a preemptive action in face of imminent invasion.

Both sides are claiming the other is or has been involved in ethnic cleansing. Putin is now even blaming the Ukrainians for it somehow.

The Georgians had been organizing because of recent attacks out of South Ossetia and into Georgia.

Attacks on whom? Georgian troops amassing on Ossetian border for an invasion?
Saakashvili has been very clear about his intentions to retake the province by force. It does not justify shelling entire city full of civilians, and killing Russian peace-keepers.
Ukrainians are supplying Georgia with weapons that Georgians are using to kill Ossetian civilians. Main reason for attacking the port.

Why are the Russians so interested in going after the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline (1M bpd) then? They've attacked it twice since this started.

Which part of if Russians attacked this pipeline it would be destroyed or at least damaged don't you understand? There is nothing stopping Russians from destroying it RIGHT NOW. If they can bomb Georgian ports and air bases, they can destroy it AT WILL. The whole "they tried to bomb it but missed" is a ridiculous lie that only an idiot would believe.

This is about power. In the new Russia the source of that power is oil and gas and their ability to control the flow of it in the region. Anything that circumvents their control is a threat.

Yeah, it's about power. But it's also about Russia not wanting a hostile military alliance on its doorstep, and it's also about Ossetians not wanting to be part of Georgia and about Georgians shelling a city full of civilians.

The pipeline has been shut down since early in the week due to a fire in Turkey so they might not even be aware if it has successfully been cut buy Russian forces.

Russia lost the cold war. The vassal states under its sway weren't content to stay there. They need to find a way to deal.

 

[ProfJohn]

Does anyone on here actually know what they are talking about or is everyone just talking about of their ass like normal??

Here is the history of events as explained by a segment on Fox News.

When the Soviet Union broke up it separated into parts that were all former countries.

When Yugoslavia broke up it did the same, breaking up into four parts.

Then the people of Kosovo, who had never had their own country, broke away and declared independence from Serbia. We supported this break away.

This pissed off the Russians in a major way.

Now the Ossetian people, who are ethnically different than the rest of Georgians want to break away and create their own country ala Kosovo.

Russia, who also has its own large Ossetian population, has stepped in and is helping the Ossetians to succeed.

The west is NOT going to get involved in this little conflict and most people expect that once Russia has gained control of this province the war will come to an end.

I would expect that this conflict is over by the end of the Olympics, the Georgian military does not stand a chance vs. Russia and I think they are just making a lot of noise now, but will roll over and come to some kind of peace agreement soon.

 

[thepd7]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Does anyone on here actually know what they are talking about or is everyone just talking about of their ass like normal??

Here is the history of events as explained by a segment on Fox News.

When the Soviet Union broke up it separated into parts that were all former countries.

When Yugoslavia broke up it did the same, breaking up into four parts.

Then the people of Kosovo, who had never had their own country, broke away and declared independence from Serbia. We supported this break away.

This pissed off the Russians in a major way.

Now the Ossetian people, who are ethnically different than the rest of Georgians want to break away and create their own country ala Kosovo.

Russia, who also has its own large Ossetian population, has stepped in and is helping the Ossetians to succeed.

The west is NOT going to get involved in this little conflict and most people expect that once Russia has gained control of this province the war will come to an end.

I would expect that this conflict is over by the end of the Olympics, the Georgian military does not stand a chance vs. Russia and I think they are just making a lot of noise now, but will roll over and come to some kind of peace agreement soon.

Wasn't S Ossertia under it's own political leadership since '92? My understanding is they had sort of a de facto independence though it wasn't officially recognized by anyone.

Also, I read that Georgia destroyed 40 Russian tanks...they were trained by US soldiers and they have 3000 coming back to Georgia from Iraq. I am not doubting they are no match for the Russians but they seem pretty stubborn and at least somewhat skilled.

 

[MadRat]

They've been at limited war for 30 days prior to this. I have a feeling Georgia will absorb one hell of a shock & awe in order to win on the global opinion front. Wars aren't always win or lose, sometimes they are about one's sovereign status and legitimacy.

 

[Red Dawn]

It's all about the geopolitics of oil.

 

[senseamp]

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp
I dunno, maybe West will get involved in Georgia if Georgians start shelling cities full of civilians?
Oh wait, nope, but thankfully Russia did.

Of course Russia arming the separatists in the first place and creating instability in the region couldn't benefit them in the least...

Putin is misunderstood I guess, he's actually a humanitarian.

Ohh, poor Georgians don't like fighting armed people. So much easier to just shell civilians. Russia armed separatist so they could defend themselves exactly against the type of genocide that Georgia wanted to unleash with its shelling of a city full of civilians. Too bad they overplayed their hand, again.

Russia armed the separatists for their own interests and have stoked the conflict while trying to play the innocent mediator/protector. The Georgians certainly haven't helped the issue by indulging some of the goading, nor the South Ossetians by attacking the Georgians.

Russia is exploiting both sides for its own ends.

Georgia armed itself, so Russia armed the separatists to keep the balance. And good thing they did, because otherwise Georgians would be massacring even more civilians if they weren't facing any resistance, and would have overran the whole province and finished ethnic cleansing before the Russians arrived. Georgians were massing on South Ossetian border. Even if you buy they were attacked first, it would have been a preemptive action in face of imminent invasion.

Both sides are claiming the other is or has been involved in ethnic cleansing. Putin is now even blaming the Ukrainians for it somehow.

The Georgians had been organizing because of recent attacks out of South Ossetia and into Georgia.

Attacks on whom? Georgian troops amassing on Ossetian border for an invasion?
Saakashvili has been very clear about his intentions to retake the province by force. It does not justify shelling entire city full of civilians, and killing Russian peace-keepers.
Ukrainians are supplying Georgia with weapons that Georgians are using to kill Ossetian civilians. Main reason for attacking the port.

Why are the Russians so interested in going after the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline (1M bpd) then? They've attacked it twice since this started.

Which part of if Russians attacked this pipeline it would be destroyed or at least damaged don't you understand? There is nothing stopping Russians from destroying it RIGHT NOW. If they can bomb Georgian ports and air bases, they can destroy it AT WILL. The whole "they tried to bomb it but missed" is a ridiculous lie that only an idiot would believe.

This is about power. In the new Russia the source of that power is oil and gas and their ability to control the flow of it in the region. Anything that circumvents their control is a threat.

Yeah, it's about power. But it's also about Russia not wanting a hostile military alliance on its doorstep, and it's also about Ossetians not wanting to be part of Georgia and about Georgians shelling a city full of civilians.

The pipeline has been shut down since early in the week due to a fire in Turkey so they might not even be aware if it has successfully been cut buy Russian forces.

Russia lost the cold war. The vassal states under its sway weren't content to stay there. They need to find a way to deal.

They are finding a way to deal, that's for sure.
This victor mentality on the part of the West is what is contributing to this resurgence of the Cold War.
Georgia will also have to find a way to deal that their vassal provinces of Ossetia and Abkhazia were not content to go with them when they left USSR, and they lost a war in 90s and now another one in this century.

 

[BMW540I6speed]

It was our friend Mr. Saakashvili who decided this week to recapture the South Ossetia territory which has indeed been de facto independent for 16 years now. It was the Georgian invasion and shelling of the capital of S.Ossetia that caused the large number of civilian casualties. It was the Russian forces who entered from the north to resist the Georgian aggression yesterday.

Reports vary but some late ones now say the Georgians are withdrawing from South Ossetian territory; if they actually do so, the Russians will have far less of an ethical case for continuing either military action or extended occupation.

It's true that in this story there are no heroes, and all too many villains; ethnic Georgians who live in South Ossetia are anxious to be reunited with their brothers in the rest of the country, just as Ossetians wish to join with theirs to the north. Abhkazia has a case as well; it was that old Georgian Joseph Stalin who decided to join that territory to Georgia in the 1930's. The Russians have their nose out of joint because of our paddling our fingers in the Caucauses, and can hardly be seen as having only pure motives in all of this.

Our policy in these matters is simply incoherent. Kosovo is now a free and independent little ministate, though it had been part of the Serbian homeland for a thousand years and more. We promoted that against Serbian claims of territorial integrity and Russian objections. That event last spring helped push Putin into a more confrontational mood; Russians know all about the saying "what's good for the goose is good for the gander."

Rather, if Saakashvili wasn't a two-bit nationalist dictator, he could have undercut Russia's rationale for the conflict by granting South Ossetia independence, or at least not escalating the conflict by bringing in tanks. But instead he's counting on us to help him maintain control of a region that wants nothing to do with him, and idiots like McCain are playing right into his hands.

 

[thepd7]

Originally posted by: BMW540I6speed
It was our friend Mr. Saakashvili who decided this week to recapture the South Ossetia territory which has indeed been de facto independent for 16 years now. It was the Georgian invasion and shelling of the capital of S.Ossetia that caused the large number of civilian casualties. It was the Russian forces who entered from the north to resist the Georgian aggression yesterday.

Reports vary but some late ones now say the Georgians are withdrawing from South Ossetian territory; if they actually do so, the Russians will have far less of an ethical case for continuing either military action or extended occupation.

It's true that in this story there are no heroes, and all too many villains; ethnic Georgians who live in South Ossetia are anxious to be reunited with their brothers in the rest of the country, just as Ossetians wish to join with theirs to the north. Abhkazia has a case as well; it was that old Georgian Joseph Stalin who decided to join that territory to Georgia in the 1930's. The Russians have their nose out of joint because of our paddling our fingers in the Caucauses, and can hardly be seen as having only pure motives in all of this.

Our policy in these matters is simply incoherent. Kosovo is now a free and independent little ministate, though it had been part of the Serbian homeland for a thousand years and more. We promoted that against Serbian claims of territorial integrity and Russian objections. That event last spring helped push Putin into a more confrontational mood; Russians know all about the saying "what's good for the goose is good for the gander."

Rather, if Saakashvili wasn't a two-bit nationalist dictator, he could have undercut Russia's rationale for the conflict by granting South Ossetia independence, or at least not escalating the conflict by bringing in tanks. But instead he's counting on us to help him maintain control of a region that wants nothing to do with him, and idiots like McCain are playing right into his hands.

Your post was pretty informative until the last few sentences. How exactly is McCain playing into his hands? Please link direct quotes/other evidence that is causing you to make statements like this.

I don't know one way or the other, and I will continue to not know unless you actually provide some evidence to back up your claim.

 

[senseamp]

McCain is completely senile. He was calling for a UNSC meeting on this after there have already been two.

 

[piasabird]

Who besides the USA would the UN choose to fight the Russians? It may be quite possible that Russia may have every right to fight this fight. They may look at this as a chance to exterminate some terrorists or their own. Besides if Russia is involved in their own conflict maybe they will be more likely to deal with us on Iran.

 

[Modelworks]

It is best we keep our nose out of it. We have a bad habit of taking on causes that are not our responsibility.
I am more concerned with Russia and their relations with Cuba lately.

 

[BackFlow]

Originally posted by: Modelworks
It is best we keep our nose out of it. We have a bad habit of taking on causes that are not our responsibility.
I am more concerned with Russia and their relations with Cuba lately.

It should be one of America primary if not utter most important concern.

America (CIA) backed the Rose Revolution to remove Georgia elected president that were friendly to the Russian, and replaced it with a puppet govenment.

The last straw was that America didn't heed when they placed the "missile sheild" in the former Russian territories. The act triggered Russia to search out for friends and they provided weapons/intelligent/technology to nations that are simpathetic to the Russian cause.

 

[ranmaniac]

Imagine having George W. Bush and Dick Cheney in power during the Cuban Missile Crisis, our planet would be incinerated. Interesting to note, that the Cuban Missile Crisis was in part because US/NATO put missiles in Turkey, and the Soviet Union responded by putting missiles in Cuba. It appears the way things are going with the US trying to put ABMs around Russia, history is about to repeat itself.

Of course Obama will save us all.

 

[jpeyton]

Oil

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Oil

Yep

Probably will be back over $120 by the end of the day.

Gas station on the corner from me was changing the sign on my way home this morning from $3.85 to $4.11 already.

 

[BMW540I6speed]

Originally posted by: thepd7

Originally posted by: BMW540I6speed
It was our friend Mr. Saakashvili who decided this week to recapture the South Ossetia territory which has indeed been de facto independent for 16 years now. It was the Georgian invasion and shelling of the capital of S.Ossetia that caused the large number of civilian casualties. It was the Russian forces who entered from the north to resist the Georgian aggression yesterday.

Reports vary but some late ones now say the Georgians are withdrawing from South Ossetian territory; if they actually do so, the Russians will have far less of an ethical case for continuing either military action or extended occupation.

It's true that in this story there are no heroes, and all too many villains; ethnic Georgians who live in South Ossetia are anxious to be reunited with their brothers in the rest of the country, just as Ossetians wish to join with theirs to the north. Abhkazia has a case as well; it was that old Georgian Joseph Stalin who decided to join that territory to Georgia in the 1930's. The Russians have their nose out of joint because of our paddling our fingers in the Caucauses, and can hardly be seen as having only pure motives in all of this.

Our policy in these matters is simply incoherent. Kosovo is now a free and independent little ministate, though it had been part of the Serbian homeland for a thousand years and more. We promoted that against Serbian claims of territorial integrity and Russian objections. That event last spring helped push Putin into a more confrontational mood; Russians know all about the saying "what's good for the goose is good for the gander."

Rather, if Saakashvili wasn't a two-bit nationalist dictator, he could have undercut Russia's rationale for the conflict by granting South Ossetia independence, or at least not escalating the conflict by bringing in tanks. But instead he's counting on us to help him maintain control of a region that wants nothing to do with him, and idiots like McCain are playing right into his hands.

Your post was pretty informative until the last few sentences. How exactly is McCain playing into his hands? Please link direct quotes/other evidence that is causing you to make statements like this.

I don't know one way or the other, and I will continue to not know unless you actually provide some evidence to back up your claim.

Because McCain sure does seem to short on understanding how to best defuse situations and quick with pouring gasoline around open flames. Statements issued by democratically elected world leaders, including President Bush, first calling on both sides to negotiate, and there's McCain hotdogging it out in left field.

I know Joe American sure does like his leaders standing tall in the saddle. Even though every one knows that standing tall only makes you more likely to be shot.

In short, Russia won. Negotiations, such as they will be, will be a means for South Ossetia to become more clearly part of the Russian sphere with Georgia duly chastened. I find it unlikely that Russia will pursue Georgia further unilaterally. They'll lob a few more for good measure and bet that the West has gotten the point: stay out of our back yard unless you want to take us on.

What happens next is a critical branch point for the West. It will signal to Russia whether or not they can slowly but surely rebuild empire and expand their grip upon the regions natural resources and their transport. The West as a group needs to decide, and needs to decide now, exactly where it will build its fence and then make it clear that the fence is secure. It cannot just put tentative stakes in the ground over where it may build the fence in the future and then be shocked when Russia rips those stakes out and growls.

Fast tracking Georgia into NATO is making a committment and a scary one at that. Anything short of fast tracking Georgia into NATO right now however will give Russia a clear message that Europe will do nothing to stop Russia from virtually anything she wants to do, whether it be by power soft or hard.

These are complex times and the players are repositioning themselves rapidly.

 

[BassBomb]

It would take attack on western soil or people from the west getting caught in the conflict (I recall uboats that sank a US ship caused USA to join WW1?)

This would really disrupt ties that America has with Russia though

 

[DomS]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
The west will not get militarily involved except to peacekeep, whatever that means. You are sorely mistaken if you think the West will take up its arms against the Russian military over Georgia. Absolutely will not happen, PERIOD. Does not matter WHAT Russia does there.

yup. They could detonate a nuclear bomb in the middle of the Georgian capital and the west wouldn't do a thing. They just don't care unless oil is involved. They'll probably do some limp-wristed UN sanctions.

 

[razor2025]

Originally posted by: DomS

yup. They could detonate a nuclear bomb in the middle of the Georgian capital and the west wouldn't do a thing. They just don't care unless oil is involved. They'll probably do some limp-wristed UN sanctions.

Better double check that assumption again.

 

[Genx87]

The west wont get involved. Had to get to that part of the world and what do we gain by it?

I do think this is a clear power play by Russia. You dont have an entire army ready to invade at the drop of a hat. They probably tempted the Georgians to do something worth their response. But it doesnt matter now. Expect a new pro-russian regime in Georgia within weeks and a stern warning to other former USSR states to give up trying to not bow to the Kremlin.

 

[Young Grasshopper]

Originally posted by: DomS

Originally posted by: Skoorb
The west will not get militarily involved except to peacekeep, whatever that means. You are sorely mistaken if you think the West will take up its arms against the Russian military over Georgia. Absolutely will not happen, PERIOD. Does not matter WHAT Russia does there.

yup. They could detonate a nuclear bomb in the middle of the Georgian capital and the west wouldn't do a thing. They just don't care unless oil is involved. They'll probably do some limp-wristed UN sanctions.

problem is there is oil involved

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...8/08/09/MNDG127U55.DTL

 

[OCGuy]

When the Red tanks start rolling....who knows when they will stop.

We have a huge force in Germany for a reason. But if they stay in Georgia, we will leave them alone. Sure Cheney and Bush will give them stern "warnings", but noone wants a nuclear holocaust over an old Soviet state anyway.

 

[Mxylplyx]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Oil

Yep

Probably will be back over $120 by the end of the day.

Gas station on the corner from me was changing the sign on my way home this morning from $3.85 to $4.11 already.

Yet another stupid prediction that you will just bury with all the others. Looks like you're well on the way to being wrong....again.

 

[JeffreyLebowski]

Originally posted by: ranmaniac
Imagine having George W. Bush and Dick Cheney in power during the Cuban Missile Crisis, our planet would be incinerated. Interesting to note, that the Cuban Missile Crisis was in part because US/NATO put missiles in Turkey, and the Soviet Union responded by putting missiles in Cuba. It appears the way things are going with the US trying to put ABMs around Russia, history is about to repeat itself.

Of course Obama will save us all.

So then we don't have to worry about him serving a full term

 

[preslove]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Does anyone on here actually know what they are talking about or is everyone just talking about of their ass like normal??

Here is the history of events as explained by a segment on Fox News.

Anybody else see the irony here?



As to the OP... I would say that it would take Russia nuking Georgia for the West to get involved. And there will be no Western peacekeepers in Georgia.