What will it take for West to get involved in Georgia?

[mizzou]

I think this deserves a seperate thread.

My prospects,

A. Localized conflict: West will only be involved diplomatically to suggest cease-fire

B. Russian Supported Seperatists disregard orders to halt fighting at Georiga border, take battle inside and start doing some damage. (West may want to get in to prevent further destruction from disorganized heavily armoured troops)

C. Georgia begins winning the battle, Russia to avoid embarrasment launches a massive counter-attack, one that West cannot allow to happen. (West may issue warnings, and get involved militarily on some level)

Russia to me is an enigma as far as how they want to proceed with these types of things, but I strongly believe they want to come out of this looking strong as "Strength" is something Putin desperately want's to reflect

 

[dmcowen674]

They are pushing buttons.

Bush didn't take the bait and go into Iran so killing thousands in Georgia might do the trick.

 

[Cuda1447]

WMD's?

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Cuda1447
WMD's?

Bahahahahaha :laugh:

 

[Colt45]

I don't think the west will touch it militarily. suicide.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Colt45
I don't think the west will touch it militarily. suicide.

His face confirms that:

U.S. President George W. Bush speaks with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (R) as they walk to a banquet at the Great Hall of People in Beijing August 8, 2008. The White House on Friday called for a halt to the bloodshed and for all sides to engage in direct negotiations to resolve the crisis over Georgia's South Ossetia region.

 

[babylon5]

Underground oil

 

[StageLeft]

The west will not get militarily involved except to peacekeep, whatever that means. You are sorely mistaken if you think the West will take up its arms against the Russian military over Georgia. Absolutely will not happen, PERIOD. Does not matter WHAT Russia does there.

 

[CanOWorms]

The Europeans are the only part of "The West" that can do anything right now and they rely too much on Russian energy to do anything. As long as Georgian refugees do not go to Europe and claim asylum, they don't care as long as they get their energy, even if the money goes directly into more Russian tanks and dead Georgians.

 

[K1052]

Directly I doubt that will happen unless the conflict widens (like to Ukraine).

We could probably run back door aid and weapons into Georgia through Israel though. Turkey would probably look the other way and let their airspace be used since their economic position is being threatened by Russia.

 

[theeedude]

I dunno, maybe West will get involved in Georgia if Georgians start shelling cities full of civilians?
Oh wait, nope, but thankfully Russia did.

 

[HaiBiss]

Honestly, Georgia is not worth it, however given our current admin. They may what to deflect some of the Afghan and Iraq conflicts and go head first into it. Misdirection it is the greatest of all the magic tricks.

 

[K1052]

Originally posted by: senseamp
I dunno, maybe West will get involved in Georgia if Georgians start shelling cities full of civilians?
Oh wait, nope, but thankfully Russia did.

Of course Russia arming the separatists in the first place and creating instability in the region couldn't benefit them in the least...

Putin is misunderstood I guess, he's actually a humanitarian.

 

[alphatarget1]

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp
I dunno, maybe West will get involved in Georgia if Georgians start shelling cities full of civilians?
Oh wait, nope, but thankfully Russia did.

Of course Russia arming the separatists in the first place and creating instability in the region couldn't benefit them in the least...

Putin is misunderstood I guess, he's actually a humanitarian.

Putin is so popular in Russia he could probably get away with anything he does in Russia. It's sad really that they're now really trying to flex their muscles, but I guess it was the US who invaded Iraq despite heavy international opposition. We can't really tell them what not to do.

 

[Double Trouble]

Frankly it does not matter what happens in Georgia, the 'west' (meaning the US, UK, Germany, France) will not get involved militarily. It's simply a bad risk-reward wager. If things go well, congratulations, you keep Georgia from getting trampled by the Russians. If things get ugly, uh-oh, there's all sorts of bad things that can happen. Personally, I don't see how it's any of our business what happens between the Russians and Georgians, though I'm sure a lot of innocents are losing their lives given the Russian's use of heavy-handed tactics.

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp
I dunno, maybe West will get involved in Georgia if Georgians start shelling cities full of civilians?
Oh wait, nope, but thankfully Russia did.

Of course Russia arming the separatists in the first place and creating instability in the region couldn't benefit them in the least...

Putin is misunderstood I guess, he's actually a humanitarian.

Ohh, poor Georgians don't like fighting armed people. So much easier to just shell civilians. Russia armed separatist so they could defend themselves exactly against the type of genocide that Georgia wanted to unleash with its shelling of a city full of civilians. Too bad they overplayed their hand, again.

 

[mizzou]

To be honest, I think it would be risky just to do a peacekeeping mission.

From reading the news so far, I think you would just be getting 2 sides shooting over your head while you bunker down in your UN colored APC's

 

[K1052]

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp
I dunno, maybe West will get involved in Georgia if Georgians start shelling cities full of civilians?
Oh wait, nope, but thankfully Russia did.

Of course Russia arming the separatists in the first place and creating instability in the region couldn't benefit them in the least...

Putin is misunderstood I guess, he's actually a humanitarian.

Ohh, poor Georgians don't like fighting armed people. So much easier to just shell civilians. Russia armed separatist so they could defend themselves exactly against the type of genocide that Georgia wanted to unleash with its shelling of a city full of civilians. Too bad they overplayed their hand, again.

Russia armed the separatists for their own interests and have stoked the conflict while trying to play the innocent mediator/protector. The Georgians certainly haven't helped the issue by indulging some of the goading, nor the South Ossetians by attacking the Georgians.

Russia is exploiting both sides for its own ends.

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp
I dunno, maybe West will get involved in Georgia if Georgians start shelling cities full of civilians?
Oh wait, nope, but thankfully Russia did.

Of course Russia arming the separatists in the first place and creating instability in the region couldn't benefit them in the least...

Putin is misunderstood I guess, he's actually a humanitarian.

Ohh, poor Georgians don't like fighting armed people. So much easier to just shell civilians. Russia armed separatist so they could defend themselves exactly against the type of genocide that Georgia wanted to unleash with its shelling of a city full of civilians. Too bad they overplayed their hand, again.

Russia armed the separatists for their own interests and have stoked the conflict while trying to play the innocent mediator/protector. The Georgians certainly haven't helped the issue by indulging some of the goading, nor the South Ossetians by attacking the Georgians.

Russia is exploiting both sides for its own ends.

Georgia armed itself, so Russia armed the separatists to keep the balance. And good thing they did, because otherwise Georgians would be massacring even more civilians if they weren't facing any resistance, and would have overran the whole province and finished ethnic cleansing before the Russians arrived. Georgians were massing on South Ossetian border. Even if you buy they were attacked first, it would have been a preemptive action in face of imminent invasion.

 

[K1052]

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp
I dunno, maybe West will get involved in Georgia if Georgians start shelling cities full of civilians?
Oh wait, nope, but thankfully Russia did.

Of course Russia arming the separatists in the first place and creating instability in the region couldn't benefit them in the least...

Putin is misunderstood I guess, he's actually a humanitarian.

Ohh, poor Georgians don't like fighting armed people. So much easier to just shell civilians. Russia armed separatist so they could defend themselves exactly against the type of genocide that Georgia wanted to unleash with its shelling of a city full of civilians. Too bad they overplayed their hand, again.

Russia armed the separatists for their own interests and have stoked the conflict while trying to play the innocent mediator/protector. The Georgians certainly haven't helped the issue by indulging some of the goading, nor the South Ossetians by attacking the Georgians.

Russia is exploiting both sides for its own ends.

Georgia armed itself, so Russia armed the separatists to keep the balance. And good thing they did, because otherwise Georgians would be massacring even more civilians if they weren't facing any resistance, and would have overran the whole province and finished ethnic cleansing before the Russians arrived. Georgians were massing on South Ossetian border. Even if you buy they were attacked first, it would have been a preemptive action in face of imminent invasion.

Both sides are claiming the other is or has been involved in ethnic cleansing. Putin is now even blaming the Ukrainians for it somehow.

The Georgians had been organizing because of recent attacks out of South Ossetia and into Georgia.

 

[daniel49]

west will not get involved militarily.
So put peacekeepers in to keep Russia at bay. While negotiating.
perhaps ceed the missle program russia is so worried about in exchange for guarantee of leaving georgia alone.

Then put georgia and ukrane on the fast track for nato membership before russia absorbs them again.

 

[K1052]

Originally posted by: daniel49
west will not get involved militarily.
So put peacekeepers in to keep Russia at bay. While negotiating.
perhaps ceed the missle program russia is so worried about in exchange for guarantee of leaving georgia alone.

Then put georgia and ukrane on the fast track for nato membership before russia absorbs them again.

The Russians are spurning any attempts to broker a cease-fire with Georgia. They're in this for the whole deal.

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp
I dunno, maybe West will get involved in Georgia if Georgians start shelling cities full of civilians?
Oh wait, nope, but thankfully Russia did.

Of course Russia arming the separatists in the first place and creating instability in the region couldn't benefit them in the least...

Putin is misunderstood I guess, he's actually a humanitarian.

Ohh, poor Georgians don't like fighting armed people. So much easier to just shell civilians. Russia armed separatist so they could defend themselves exactly against the type of genocide that Georgia wanted to unleash with its shelling of a city full of civilians. Too bad they overplayed their hand, again.

Russia armed the separatists for their own interests and have stoked the conflict while trying to play the innocent mediator/protector. The Georgians certainly haven't helped the issue by indulging some of the goading, nor the South Ossetians by attacking the Georgians.

Russia is exploiting both sides for its own ends.

Georgia armed itself, so Russia armed the separatists to keep the balance. And good thing they did, because otherwise Georgians would be massacring even more civilians if they weren't facing any resistance, and would have overran the whole province and finished ethnic cleansing before the Russians arrived. Georgians were massing on South Ossetian border. Even if you buy they were attacked first, it would have been a preemptive action in face of imminent invasion.

Both sides are claiming the other is or has been involved in ethnic cleansing. Putin is now even blaming the Ukrainians for it somehow.

The Georgians had been organizing because of recent attacks out of South Ossetia and into Georgia.

Attacks on whom? Georgian troops amassing on Ossetian border for an invasion?
Saakashvili has been very clear about his intentions to retake the province by force. It does not justify shelling entire city full of civilians, and killing Russian peace-keepers.
Ukrainians are supplying Georgia with weapons that Georgians are using to kill Ossetian civilians. Main reason for attacking the port.

 

[K1052]

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp
I dunno, maybe West will get involved in Georgia if Georgians start shelling cities full of civilians?
Oh wait, nope, but thankfully Russia did.

Of course Russia arming the separatists in the first place and creating instability in the region couldn't benefit them in the least...

Putin is misunderstood I guess, he's actually a humanitarian.

Ohh, poor Georgians don't like fighting armed people. So much easier to just shell civilians. Russia armed separatist so they could defend themselves exactly against the type of genocide that Georgia wanted to unleash with its shelling of a city full of civilians. Too bad they overplayed their hand, again.

Russia armed the separatists for their own interests and have stoked the conflict while trying to play the innocent mediator/protector. The Georgians certainly haven't helped the issue by indulging some of the goading, nor the South Ossetians by attacking the Georgians.

Russia is exploiting both sides for its own ends.

Georgia armed itself, so Russia armed the separatists to keep the balance. And good thing they did, because otherwise Georgians would be massacring even more civilians if they weren't facing any resistance, and would have overran the whole province and finished ethnic cleansing before the Russians arrived. Georgians were massing on South Ossetian border. Even if you buy they were attacked first, it would have been a preemptive action in face of imminent invasion.

Both sides are claiming the other is or has been involved in ethnic cleansing. Putin is now even blaming the Ukrainians for it somehow.

The Georgians had been organizing because of recent attacks out of South Ossetia and into Georgia.

Attacks on whom? Georgian troops amassing on Ossetian border for an invasion?
Saakashvili has been very clear about his intentions to retake the province by force. It does not justify shelling entire city full of civilians, and killing Russian peace-keepers.
Ukrainians are supplying Georgia with weapons that Georgians are using to kill Ossetian civilians. Main reason for attacking the port.

Why are the Russians so interested in going after the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline (1M bpd) then? They've attacked it twice since this started.

This is about power. In the new Russia the source of that power is oil and gas and their ability to control the flow of it in the region. Anything that circumvents their control is a threat.

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: senseamp
I dunno, maybe West will get involved in Georgia if Georgians start shelling cities full of civilians?
Oh wait, nope, but thankfully Russia did.

Of course Russia arming the separatists in the first place and creating instability in the region couldn't benefit them in the least...

Putin is misunderstood I guess, he's actually a humanitarian.

Ohh, poor Georgians don't like fighting armed people. So much easier to just shell civilians. Russia armed separatist so they could defend themselves exactly against the type of genocide that Georgia wanted to unleash with its shelling of a city full of civilians. Too bad they overplayed their hand, again.

Russia armed the separatists for their own interests and have stoked the conflict while trying to play the innocent mediator/protector. The Georgians certainly haven't helped the issue by indulging some of the goading, nor the South Ossetians by attacking the Georgians.

Russia is exploiting both sides for its own ends.

Georgia armed itself, so Russia armed the separatists to keep the balance. And good thing they did, because otherwise Georgians would be massacring even more civilians if they weren't facing any resistance, and would have overran the whole province and finished ethnic cleansing before the Russians arrived. Georgians were massing on South Ossetian border. Even if you buy they were attacked first, it would have been a preemptive action in face of imminent invasion.

Both sides are claiming the other is or has been involved in ethnic cleansing. Putin is now even blaming the Ukrainians for it somehow.

The Georgians had been organizing because of recent attacks out of South Ossetia and into Georgia.

Attacks on whom? Georgian troops amassing on Ossetian border for an invasion?
Saakashvili has been very clear about his intentions to retake the province by force. It does not justify shelling entire city full of civilians, and killing Russian peace-keepers.
Ukrainians are supplying Georgia with weapons that Georgians are using to kill Ossetian civilians. Main reason for attacking the port.

Why are the Russians so interested in going after the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline (1M bpd) then? They've attacked it twice since this started.

Which part of if Russians attacked this pipeline it would be destroyed or at least damaged don't you understand? There is nothing stopping Russians from destroying it RIGHT NOW. If they can bomb Georgian ports and air bases, they can destroy it AT WILL. The whole "they tried to bomb it but missed" is a ridiculous lie that only an idiot would believe.

This is about power. In the new Russia the source of that power is oil and gas and their ability to control the flow of it in the region. Anything that circumvents their control is a threat.

Yeah, it's about power. But it's also about Russia not wanting a hostile military alliance on its doorstep, and it's also about Ossetians not wanting to be part of Georgia and about Georgians shelling a city full of civilians.