What will happen if the US Stops relying on fossil fuels?

[s0me0nesmind1]

Simple question here - and I'm really not making this an overall partisan based issue. I just started thinking - with everyone pushing the environment initiative (no arguments here, I'm no denier), if we were to move away from fossil fuels, how would the world react?

I'm thinking in terms of nations that are entirely and completely dependent upon oil in order to sustain what little order they have. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that plenty of countries would immediately erupt into chaos. Venezuela is a perfect example - and that was simply based on the market getting cut in half. Every single country in the middle east practically is reliant upon oil - Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel - and African nations such as Libya and Nigeria and even Russia is reliant upon it.

Below is a good chart for reference:

Plenty of people here might say that countries will evolve, find a new market, etc - except these aren't overall developed nations, there isn't much else to make. Their countries are poor and they are totally dependent upon exporting a fossil fuel. They don't even have the labor market capacity that the likes of China has to compensate.

This is partly why OPEC is having little to no effect - because the likes of Iraq can't afford to stop producing at any significant rate.

So what is P&N's thoughts on this? There is no doubt in my mind, more people would die due to civil wars this will cause than just about anything else. I don't necessarily have an opinion yet of any proposed solution, seems like almost like a lose-lose.

 

[Indus]

If we're being realistic.. we're more likely to invade and take over Venezuela so we have more oil than we are to completely getting rid of fossil fuels.

However say over 50 years we get wiser.. then other countries will pick up the demand. I don't see demand getting less in Asia, Africa, Europe anytime soon.

 

[brycejones]

We all become vegan and gay.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Dave will be left with complaining about being carded to buy Balsamic vinegar and it's cost per gallon.

 

[woolfe9998]

Those countries will have to adapt. Just like coal miners in the US will have to adapt. Saudi Arabia is already trying to shift its economy away from dependency on oil exports. Others will do so as well.

 

[First]

If it's not managed by stakeholders with a real interest in moving away from fossil fuels, and it's just done completely at the whim of market forces then yeah sure, you'd get chaos. The most at-risk developing countries are currently getting vast numbers of resources from NGO's and other charities, which hasdrastically improved their quality of lives, so if that same effort were applied to sustainable energy the transition could be quite "bloodless".

But a lot of it is tough to plan for and envision, because technology is very tough to predict. Just to take a recent phenomenon, did anyone really envision the smartphone would be such an integral part of daily life at this point in 2007, only 10 yrs ago, which was right before the first iPhone came out? Now you consistently hear stories about farmers, villagers and fishermen in 3rd world countries able to conduct commerce with smartphones because they're given away practically for free by said NGO's and other organizations. This has radically changed how the developing world does business. Did anyone predict just 7 years ago that LNG fracking would account for such a significant portion of U.S. energy production? LNG fracking is essentially entirely clean and friendly to the environment when done correctly. Did anyone predict just 5! years ago that deep learning would lead to such giant advancements in AI to the point where we can easily see job automation at a scale never before possible?

Bottom line, if we see more drastic improvements in solar and other currently known renewable energy tech, that could be enough for many developing countries, but it'll probably be other forms of renewable energy we're not as aware of right now. So frankly, a bright and clean future is really not difficult to envision for the rest of the planet, but the precise form it'll take will be tough to predict. Certainly if recent history is any guide, a "bloodless" renewable energy revolution for the rest of the world is far more likely than civil war.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Those countries will have to adapt. Just like coal miners in the US will have to adapt. Saudi Arabia is already trying to shift its economy away from dependency on oil exports. Others will do so as well.

I already said this in the OP -

Saudi Arabia is one thing - I can understand them adapting because they are more developed.

Do you think the likes of Nigeria, Iraq, and Venezuela can? you're out of your mind - provide some facts to them adapting - or at the very least give some ideas of what monetary generating item they could leverage next that can sustain that amount of revenue that oil has for them.

Simply answering "Ohhh, they will adapt to the changing market" is wishing in one hand and shitting in the other. One is definitely going to get filled first.

 

[shortylickens]

We all become vegan and gay.

In the grand scheme of things thats a small price.

 

[First]

I already said this in the OP -

Saudi Arabia is one thing - I can understand them adapting because they are more developed.

Do you think the likes of Nigeria, Iraq, and Venezuela can? you're out of your mind - provide some facts to them adapting - or at the very least give some ideas of what monetary generating item they could leverage next that can sustain that amount of revenue that oil has for them.

Simply answering "Ohhh, they will adapt to the changing market" is wishing in one hand and shitting in the other. One is definitely going to get filled first.

Your OP and comment here is still a bit odd; you're saying that if only the U.S. by itself moves away from renewables that somehow very underdeveloped nations will erupt into chaos because....? Why? They could still use oil until they're more developed, hell China still relies a shit ton on coal, but even they are moving away from it.

 

[theeedude]

It will be a wonderful thing. All these dictatorships and Republican states will be put in their proper place based on how much value they actually create as opposed to what they sit on.

 

[First]

Ah, OP is saying that they can't export oil anymore because the rest of the world won't buy it as often. And the obvious answer to that is they will certainly adapt given that it is quite literally impossible to predict all the new or prioritized exports for a country 10 or 20 years down the line. It's certainly possible many developing nations will erupt into chaos, but there is no solution for that necessarily; you can't pretend oil is good for the environment, so the question is can you extract oil cleanly (not really), and if you accept that you can't then it become obvious we need to move toward cleaner and cheaper renewables. There is no known alternative.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Much depends on if the change if phased in over longer periods of time or shorter and precisely what changes in terms of infrastructure. The faster the change the greater displacement in employment. Higher paying jobs will vanish and something akin to the aerospace engineering collapse after the VN war will follow. It is unlikely a shift to solar will offset this. That's a negative. Another is that net exporters of fossil fuels will suffer disruption proportional to the degree that these monies contribute to their total economy. The ME for example will lose a major part of their economy resulting in turmoil and unrest with potential civil war and resultant loss of control and expanding terrorism being a result.

On the plus side we have an end to the majority of human contribution to warming and that's no small thing. We also conserve a valuable material manufacturing source.

Well that's some things.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

we adapted from walking to riding horses, to steam locomotives to gasoline powered vehicles, we will figure a way to adapt.

 

[woolfe9998]

I already said this in the OP -

Saudi Arabia is one thing - I can understand them adapting because they are more developed.

Do you think the likes of Nigeria, Iraq, and Venezuela can? you're out of your mind - provide some facts to them adapting - or at the very least give some ideas of what monetary generating item they could leverage next that can sustain that amount of revenue that oil has for them.

Simply answering "Ohhh, they will adapt to the changing market" is wishing in one hand and shitting in the other. One is definitely going to get filled first.

I never said everything would turn out great for every country. They will adapt, or they will suffer. That's what happens with economics. You move off one thing and on to another, and there are winners and losers. Some of these countries will find ways to adapt and some will suffer. In the long, long term I'm sure they will all eventually adapt out of necessity. But some will undoubtedly suffer for awhile before that happens.

I don't really see your point here. You say you aren't a warming denier, great. Then what do you propose to rescue these countries? And more importantly, how well do you think developing countries will adapt to shrinking coast lines, droughts, and natural disasters brought on by MMGW? Don't you think that's going to create problems for these countries as well?

 

[theeedude]

The countries and states that have been papering over their corrupt and ineffective institutions with oil money will get what they actually deserve in life. It's only suffering on a relative basis.

 

[cytg111]

The countries and states that have been papering over their corrupt and ineffective institutions with oil money will get what they actually deserve in life. It's only suffering on a relative basis.

Not supporting the deserving part but it may be a shake up that some of these countries need.

 

[werepossum]

We all become vegan and gay.

 

[Commodus]

To me: it sucks, but they'll have to adapt. Humanity as a species can't keep riding on fossil fuels for much longer, and the momentum is such that coal and oil are dying regardless of what lobbyists want.

I can see some countries coming out of this without much trouble, like Canada, China or India; they have tech, industry and agriculture. Wealthier Arab countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia can throw their existing oil money at other businesses, like tech or tourism. It's the countries that are both oil-dependent and don't have a fallback that are in trouble.

 

[Fern]

What will happen if the US Stops relying on fossil fuels?

If only the US stops using oil/gas?

Well, we import only about 25% of our oil. If we stopped using and producing looks like a net 25% reduction in the world's demand. There would be a modest price drop. That would likely benefit all other countries who are net users. Net producers would likely reduce production for price support purposes. But they may take a modest revenue hit. I don't see a big deal here. Prices have fluctuated more than that.

Since we have no reliable and cheap replacement our economy would suffer, tremendously I think. Hardships would abound: home heating and transportation would be problematic. I have seen estimates that there are as many as 9.8 million direct and indirect jobs in the oil industry (that's an API estimate, so take it with a grain of salt). So, employment would suffer (and related problems arise such as home foreclosures, CC default etc.)

I suppose China might suffer economically since demand from the USA would decline. But the cheaper oil price would offset that to some extent.

So what happens is we screw ourselves while the rest of the world stands around watching with modest effects.

Fern

 

[Commodus]

If only the US stops using oil/gas?

Well, we import only about 25% of our oil. If we stopped using and producing looks like a net 25% reduction in the world's demand. There would be a modest price drop. That would likely benefit all other countries who are net users. Net producers would likely reduce production for price support purposes. But they may take a modest revenue hit. I don't see a big deal here. Prices have fluctuated more than that.

Since we have no reliable and cheap replacement our economy would suffer, tremendously. I think. Hardships would abound: home heating and transportation would problematic. I have seen estimates that there are as many as 9.8 million direct and indirect jobs in the oil industry (that's an API estimate, so take it with a grain of salt). So, employment would suffer (and related problems arise such as home foreclosures, CC default etc.)

I suppose China might suffer economically since demand from the USA would decline. But the cheaper oil price would offset that to some extent.

So what happens is we screw ourselves while the rest of the world stands around watching with modest effects.

Fern

I don't actually think we'd screw ourselves that much. The cost of renewable energy is dropping rapidly, and we have tech like home/commercial batteries to store unused energy when it's dark or calm. The bigger issue is transportation. Right now there aren't really any economy EVs. If you asked in 5-10 years from now, it might be a different story...

 

[K1052]

If only the US stops using oil/gas?

Well, we import only about 25% of our oil. If we stopped using and producing looks like a net 25% reduction in the world's demand. There would be a modest price drop. That would likely benefit all other countries who are net users. Net producers would likely reduce production for price support purposes. But they may take a modest revenue hit. I don't see a big deal here. Prices have fluctuated more than that.

Since we have no reliable and cheap replacement our economy would suffer, tremendously I think. Hardships would abound: home heating and transportation would be problematic. I have seen estimates that there are as many as 9.8 million direct and indirect jobs in the oil industry (that's an API estimate, so take it with a grain of salt). So, employment would suffer (and related problems arise such as home foreclosures, CC default etc.)

I suppose China might suffer economically since demand from the USA would decline. But the cheaper oil price would offset that to some extent.

So what happens is we screw ourselves while the rest of the world stands around watching with modest effects.

Fern

There was a story not too long ago about how technology and automation are doing a lot of jobs out in the oil/gas patch now and even though demand has somewhat rebounded the jobs haven't. Most likely the industry will suffer similar labor declines that the coal miners did as mechanization was brought in but production continued to rise.

 

[woolfe9998]

There was a story not too long ago about how technology and automation are doing a lot of jobs out in the oil/gas patch now and even though demand has somewhat rebounded the jobs haven't. Most likely the industry will suffer similar labor declines that the coal miners did as mechanization was brought in but production continued to rise.

It's especially dramatic with the coal industry. We used to employ five times as many people in coal, yet our production of coal is actually higher now than it was then. That's how many jobs automation has cost in that industry. Another reason why Trump's artificial attempt to prop up this industry is so moronic. I honestly have no idea why we pine over these industries which are on their way out. It's not like working in a coal mine was ever such a great thing. It's a mercy that there are more machines than humans doing it now.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

If only the US stops using oil/gas?

Well, we import only about 25% of our oil. If we stopped using and producing looks like a net 25% reduction in the world's demand. There would be a modest price drop. That would likely benefit all other countries who are net users. Net producers would likely reduce production for price support purposes. But they may take a modest revenue hit. I don't see a big deal here. Prices have fluctuated more than that.

Since we have no reliable and cheap replacement our economy would suffer, tremendously I think. Hardships would abound: home heating and transportation would be problematic. I have seen estimates that there are as many as 9.8 million direct and indirect jobs in the oil industry (that's an API estimate, so take it with a grain of salt). So, employment would suffer (and related problems arise such as home foreclosures, CC default etc.)

I suppose China might suffer economically since demand from the USA would decline. But the cheaper oil price would offset that to some extent.

So what happens is we screw ourselves while the rest of the world stands around watching with modest effects.

Fern

Sorry, but you're living in a fantasy world if you think the US can drop out and things can continue as normal. A 25% drop in demand doesn't create a 25% more demand across the rest of the world magically. As car makers and other machinery becomes more efficient with it's usage, the overall demand is destined to drop world-wide vs. our gas-guzzling past and present. No question.

There is no doubt that it will crush multiple countries into oblivion in civil wars worldwide - possibly erupting into a world war as other developed countries start to take sides.

Notice - as much as people like to complain about how much oil companies have a grip on the US economy - it's not even listed on the graph of countries that are dependent upon it the most.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

That said, I find it rather comical that the liberal left leaning progressive junkies here are the ones literally laughing in this thread and finding the concept comical with no real answers or means to a solution. Just goes to show you guys live in fantasy lands of "We will adapt" with no real means as to how we will adapt. Just like when they yell things like "FREE COLLEGE!" and "$15 MINIMUM WAGE!" with no real means or feasibility as to where the money comes from.

 

[pcgeek11]

We all become vegan and gay.

If true then I would just end it.