Interestingly enough, according to several recent research studies, drug rehabilitation costs are estimated to decline if marijuana is made legal - due to the fact that virtually all marijuana related rehabilitation stays are court ordered, not voluntary. Voluntary rehabilitation costs are estimated to remain roughly the same, since almost 100% of voluntary rehabilitation costs are related to addictive drugs (not marijuana).
But let's look at what REALLY might happen if California legalizes pot. If California legalizes marijuana, it is expected that;
1) Violent gangs will make less money - an estimated 50-65% of their revenue comes from the sale of illegal marijuana
2) Fewer people will go to jail - 847,000 people arrested in the US annually for simple marijauna possession
3) Lower law enforcement costs - by not enforcing anti-pot laws - and fewer prisoners
4) New tax revenues - estimated $1.4 billion in new tax revenues if California legalizes and taxes the production, distribution and sale of marijuana
These are All Good Things
If California legalizes marijuana, it will represent a profound shift in public opinion towards marijuana use. California often leads the nation in public opinion trends.
By legalizing marijuana in California, either by referendum or legislative action, millions of voters will have validated their view that the legal growth, distribution, sale and use of marijuana is good public policy - and should be legal - without the threat of prosecution and penalty of jail.
Smart politicos in other states will recognize that, in the midst of the worst and most prolonged economic downturn since the great depression, it is simply (1) smart policy to give people what they want, and stop putting them in jail for it, especially when (2) giving them what they want means billions of dollars in new tax revenues, and (3) lower law enforcement costs.
Other states are expected to;
1)Follow California's lead - most likely - a few states are expected to legalize marijuana within 18 months after California does.
2) do nothing - likely - most states will take a wait and see attitude, to observe the social outcomes and federal responses the new state laws.
3) increase current penalties - not likely given that 65% of those surveryed support legalization of marijuana
Of course, legalization of marijuana by California, or other states, would not effect federal statutes that still make the growth, distribution, sale and use of marijuana illegal.
The Federal response to state legalization could be;
1). To allow the California experiment to proceed, by choosing not to enforce federal anti-marijuana statues when they conflict with state law - likely given the current federal policy towards state medical marijuana laws
2) To tie funding to enforcing federal anti-marijauna laws - just as likely - although this approach would prove very unpopular, by forcing an unpopular federal law over popular just-enacted state laws;
3) To take a heavy handed approach - and enforce all federal statues, regardless of state laws - again just as likely depending on who's president at the time.
Summary
If California legalizes marijuana, it represents a major shift in public opinion towards marijuana prohibition. Several states are likely to pass similar laws fairly soon afterward, and spark a debate at the federal level regarding the current federal policy of marijuana prohibition.
These new state laws, if tolerated at the federal level, would provide an important "experimental" environment, to determine the effects that might be incurred from a nation wide legalization of marijuana.
If California's experiment in legalizing marijuana proves successful, by leading to a reduction in violent crime, and billions of dollars in new tax revenue, it is not unreasonable to assume that the federal government, given current econmic conditions, could decide to change its policy towards legalizing, regulating and taxing marijuana growth, distribution, sale and use for private recreational purposes within the next few years.