What storage form factor due you think will decrease in usage the most over the next 5 years?

[cbn]

do you think there will be something called nvdimm-p for sale?

The JEDEC standard for NVDIMM-P is supposed to be approved sometime in 2018 (so very soon).

I was thinking that we might see server products using it perhaps 2 years later (and consumer products perhaps 3 years later). This based on DDR4 being approved by JEDEC in 2012 and first showing on Intel LGA 2011-3 in 2014 and Intel LGA 1151 in 2015.

 

[DrMrLordX]

I think we are making things too complicated here. If you are only asking about form factor, then the underlying technology utilizing said form factor becomes less of an issue.

The only thing keeping the 3.5" form factor alive is spinning rust. The migration away from HDDs may have plateaued somewhat, but I am not seeing much reason for people to continue messing with spinning rust, even from a cost perspective. Maybe the cloud providers will continue to use it? But if you look at mass-market desktop/AiOs and laptops, the move away from rust continues. Even el-cheapo $400 desktop systems are getting 120/128GB SSD options in them. When I helped a family member buy an AiO desktop back in 2014, she wound up with a cheap AMD cat core system with a 5200 rpm laptop hard drive. Same family member replaced it in 2018 with a cheap Goldmont+ AiO with a 7200rpm hard drive. Anything more expensive had an SSD in it.

There are still bargain-basement systems out there shipping with 7200 rpm harddrives. Those will probably vanish in 1-2 years, which will mean a big hit to spinning rust. Granted some of those drives are 2.5", if not all of them. But when you continue to reduce the amount of spinning rust on the market, you hit the companies that sell the spinning rust - the only guys still at all invested in the 3.5" form factor. So, in the long run, even if 2.5" rust drives leave the market, it actually helps usher out the 3.5" form factor.

I don't see 2.5" going anywhere since you can pack different technology into that form factor. I see the major limitation here being the interface. There's no particular reason why it has to be that way.

M.2 is going places since it hosts the fastest and most-sophisticated single-device storage solutions out there and because it can also fit into tiny spaces. The interface, as I've used it, is kind of goony though. On my desktop system, where PCB space comes at a premium, does it make sense to lay a gumstick flat between some PCIe slots and then screw it in? No, not really. The SATA interface was clearly designed with desktops like mine in mind, while M.2 put other concerns to the forefront. When it comes to people creating huge storage cluster devices, I kind of wonder if M.2 makes any sense, either, unless they use funky riser cards or something else to make it work. 2.5" interface says, "Look, put whatever you want inside the device, and then use this cable here to a tiny plug on the PCB". It definitely does a better job of saving space on the PCB when you have open space elsewhere to place the drive. That was never the goal behind M.2. And really, NVDIMM-P will suffer the same issue.

 

[VirtualLarry]

I'm intrigued by the 2.5" form-factor, with the "enhanced" (for lack of a better description) SATA pinout, that includes the additional pins above/below, to allow for PCI-E signalling and whatnot. I guess that's part of the U.2 form-factor standards? Anyways, 2.5" form-factor, PCI-E signalling, seems to me to be the ultimate evolution of that form-factor. You've got the additional size/heatsinking with the 2.5" form-factor, but the performance of an M.2. Seems ideal to me. Don't know if we'll ever see that on consumer motherboards though.

 

[DrMrLordX]

I'm intrigued by the 2.5" form-factor, with the "enhanced" (for lack of a better description) SATA pinout, that includes the additional pins above/below, to allow for PCI-E signalling and whatnot. I guess that's part of the U.2 form-factor standards? Anyways, 2.5" form-factor, PCI-E signalling, seems to me to be the ultimate evolution of that form-factor. You've got the additional size/heatsinking with the 2.5" form-factor, but the performance of an M.2. Seems ideal to me. Don't know if we'll ever see that on consumer motherboards though.

Depends on demand. There's no real reason why desktop DiY boards should use M.2 over NVMe U.2 (ideally you'd have both) due to PCB real-estate issues. The question is whether or not anyone would bother packaging 2.5" U.2 devices for people like us. Sure would help with the overheating problems common to NVMe drives.

 

[Billy Tallis]

None of the supposed advantages of U.2 over M.2 matter enough in the real world to make U.2 viable for the consumer market. U.2 makes it easier to put lots of SSDs in a desktop, but very few consumers need more than two SSDs. U.2 makes it easier to build high-capacity SSDs, but consumers can't afford 4+TB of flash. U.2 drives are easier to cool than M.2, but M.2 drives overheating is largely a theoretical problem.

On the other hand, U.2 drives are at least a little bit more expensive to manufacture, and they are much less suitable for laptops, which are the most important part of the consumer PC market.

 

[whm1974]

do you think there will be something called nvdimm-p for sale?

this thread is the first ive heard of such storage, i wonder what the cost per gb is if you are hyping it so much?


2.5" is my vote since i have not seen the capacity rise like everything else has. 2.5" has a limit of 5tb? still has strong use in gaming consoles. Hard to know numbers tho.

Mine as well, although for SFF games consoles/PCs like the GPD Win 2 or gaming MiniPC that form factor is better suited. However their are SFF cases that have two or more 2.5" bays

 

[DrMrLordX]

None of the supposed advantages of U.2 over M.2 matter enough in the real world to make U.2 viable for the consumer market. U.2 makes it easier to put lots of SSDs in a desktop, but very few consumers need more than two SSDs. U.2 makes it easier to build high-capacity SSDs, but consumers can't afford 4+TB of flash. U.2 drives are easier to cool than M.2, but M.2 drives overheating is largely a theoretical problem.

On the other hand, U.2 drives are at least a little bit more expensive to manufacture, and they are much less suitable for laptops, which are the most important part of the consumer PC market.

U.2 will be better for storage enclosures and high-end desktop. There's a potential market. Some NAS device manufacturers may also prefer U.2 to M.2

 

[cbn]

I'm intrigued by the 2.5" form-factor, with the "enhanced" (for lack of a better description) SATA pinout, that includes the additional pins above/below, to allow for PCI-E signalling and whatnot. I guess that's part of the U.2 form-factor standards? Anyways, 2.5" form-factor, PCI-E signalling, seems to me to be the ultimate evolution of that form-factor. You've got the additional size/heatsinking with the 2.5" form-factor, but the performance of an M.2. Seems ideal to me. Don't know if we'll ever see that on consumer motherboards though.

If I am not mistaken any M.2 slot that supports PCIe x 4 and 2 x SATA + PCIe x 2 could support both U.2 and SATA Express (Thinking AMD AM4 and Intel LGA 115x PCIe x4 slots that are also configured PCIe x 2 + 2 x SATA by the motherboard manufacturer). (See chart below under "I/O" for example)

This via adapter cards like the ones shown below:

P.S. One interesting thing I have read about PCIe x 2 vs. PCIe x 4 is that PCIe x 2 has lower latency. So 4K QD1 read should be higher provided the media has low enough latency to take advantage of this.

 

[whm1974]

P.S. One interesting thing I have read about PCIe x 2 vs. PCIe x 4 is that PCIe x 2 has lower latency. So 4K QD1 read should be higher provided the media has low enough latency to take advantage of this.

it is also cheaper to produce. Come to think of wouldn't a x1 PCIe NVMe SSD be faster then SATA SSDs?

 

[DrMrLordX]

If I recall correctly, a PCIe 3.0 1x connection can send over 900 MB/s. Something like 985 MB/s due to losing some bandwidth to signaling or what have you.

edit: and those adapters make me wonder why I haven't seen more commercial U.2 drives out there. I'd prefer having to install one of those once instead of having to mess with multiple gumsticks, up to the moment that I had to figure out how to route cables around some video card or other . . .

 

[whm1974]

If I recall correctly, a PCIe 3.0 1x connection can send over 900 MB/s. Something like 985 MB/s due to losing some bandwidth to signaling or what have you.

edit: and those adapters make me wonder why I haven't seen more commercial U.2 drives out there. I'd prefer having to install one of those once instead of having to mess with multiple gumsticks, up to the moment that I had to figure out how to route cables around some video card or other . . .

For myself that would depend on the form factor of the computer and the amount of storage in the SSD.

 

[DrMrLordX]

For myself that would depend on the form factor of the computer and the amount of storage in the SSD.

You would think the major difference between standard SATA SSDs and NVMe U.2 SSDs would be the controllers. The NAND banks should be about the same, no? Once the controllers for NVMe drives become more ubiquitous, you would think that there would be price parity between the SATA and U.2 drives. Also, I think most U.2 drives would be okay if they were only 1x or 2x PCIe devices.

 

[HutchinsonJC]

I see the major limitation here being the interface. There's no particular reason why it has to be that way.

The interface, I think, could change. I mean, it has evolved already when you look back through the years. 2.5" wasn't always SATA, afterall.

 

[whm1974]

With PCIe v5 the U.2 connector can be reduced to from x4 to x1, reducing cost and the size of the connector.

 

[SimplyComplex]

why I haven't seen more commercial U.2 drives out there.

For the same reason you didn't see much firewire in simple networking, or why you don't see Zigbee instead of Bluetooth. Doesn't matter that they were objectively better. They lost the format war. M2 won, and U2 is dead, much like mSATA.

 

[whm1974]

For the same reason you didn't see much firewire in simple networking, or why you don't see Zigbee instead of Bluetooth. Doesn't matter that they were objectively better. They lost the format war. M2 won, and U2 is dead, much like mSATA.

I don't know if I would say the U.2 lost the format war and is dead since you can actually buy U.2 2.5" SSDs. You will just have to pay and leg for one as they are not consumer devices.

 

[cbn]

I don't know if I would say the U.2 lost the format war and is dead since you can actually buy U.2 2.5" SSDs. You will just have to pay and leg for one as they are not consumer devices.

Intel invented U.2, but the only ones I have seen from them are 15mm thick (e.g. Intel 750 2.5", Intel 900p 2.5"). (EDIT: I did find out that Samsung makes an enterprise U.2 SSD called PM963 that is 7mm thick.)

Maybe if they were some (edit: consumer) 7mm thick there would be uptake in laptops?

 

[DrMrLordX]

They lost the format war. M2 won, and U2 is dead, much like mSATA.

I don't know that there ever was a format war? To most consumers, U.2 would be something new and unique. I know for my own uses that I am not overly-fond of the M.2 interface outside of its potential performance - my 512GB BPX is nice, and the 970 EVO that will eventually replace it will be even nicer. But man having those drives in U.2 form factor would be so much easier for me.

Anyway the industry could roll out U.2 to select target players any time they wanted. It would be fresh and new for most of us.

 

[cbn]

Western Digital now coming out with multi-actuator HDD:

https://www.anandtech.com/show/13764/western-digital-2019-16tb-hdd-mamr-hamr

Western Digital revealed recently that it has begun to sample its next-generation hard drives based on microwave assisted magnetic recording (MAMR) technology. The sampling is a prelude to mass production, which will see the first commercial HDDs based on the tech released this year. Meanwhile, the company is working on hard drives featuring two actuators that will arrive in 2020 or later. Overall, Western Digital remains confident in MAMR and expects to launch multiple generations of such drives. In the meantime, the firm is also admitting that it has continued to invest in development of alternative heat assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) technology.

 

[Harry_Wild]

I think there are a lot of laptops and desktop that will making the jump to SSDs so the 2.5” form factor is going be around for some time still. I am surprise that many people just do not know about SSD. I was at BB in the hard drive section and this guy wanted to upgrade his storage and I told him to get a SSD. He said back that he did not want “any of this fancy stuff”. I just smile and walked away!

 

[VirtualLarry]

and this guy wanted to upgrade his storage and I told him to get a SSD. He said back that he did not want “any of this fancy stuff”. I just smile and walked away!

LOL. "Norms".

 

[nosirrahx]

I think there are a lot of laptops and desktop that will making the jump to SSDs so the 2.5” form factor is going be around for some time still. I am surprise that many people just do not know about SSD. I was at BB in the hard drive section and this guy wanted to upgrade his storage and I told him to get a SSD. He said back that he did not want “any of this fancy stuff”. I just smile and walked away!

I recently had he pleasure of working on a system that had a HDD, I had forgotten how absolutely terrible that experience is. SSD and graphics card advancements have obscured much of the CPU stagnation that has plagued the industry for quite some time.

 

[Red Squirrel]

The OEMs continue to milk the fact that SSDs are better, by offering a slow 5400rpm HDD as the standard option, and then charging you an arm and a leg extra to "upgrade" to the SSD option. IMO it should be default by now. A spindle drive makes zero sense for an OS drive anymore. Where spindle drives shine is mass data storage in large raid arrays. Of course if money is no object you go SSD for that too.

 

[cbn]

The OEMs continue to milk the fact that SSDs are better, by offering a slow 5400rpm HDD as the standard option, and then charging you an arm and a leg extra to "upgrade" to the SSD option. IMO it should be default by now. A spindle drive makes zero sense for an OS drive anymore. Where spindle drives shine is mass data storage in large raid arrays. Of course if money is no object you go SSD for that too.

You would think by now if Spindle drive was used for OS it would be SSHD (either SATA or SATA Express) or Optane caching HDD. This especially with all three HDD makers now owning a stake in NAND.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/13672/the-seagate-barracuda-500gb-ssd-review/10

Seagate did invest $1.27 billion in Toshiba Memory Corporation as part of the consortium that acquired it from from its cash-strapped parent company, but Seagate had to agree not to acquire any voting interest or governance rights in Toshiba Memory during the next decade. Still, Toshiba has been Seagate's primary NAND supplier for quite a while and that will continue to be the case for the foreseeable future.

 

[mopardude87]

LOL. "Norms".

I kind of cry at my buddies computer,i chopped up this Dell oem tower that had a wielded on io shield,obvious Dell exclusive front panel hook ups and managed to get a H81+i5 4460+8gb to fit and work in there to replace the C2D+2gb.I tried so hard to talk this guy into getting a ssd cause that decade old mechanical is sad. NOTHING wanted to cooperate with the CD2+2GB+mechnical. At least my other buddy hooked him up with a gtx660. Went from barely getting a browser not to crash on his old setup to finally playing GTA V on this one minus the VERY long load times.

I somehow managed to get his sister to get the concept of the ssd upgrade,then i promptly installed it and well i only wish she would smack her brother alongside the head and listen to reason and get a ssd already.I think he likes to torture himself cause till like 2 years ago he was on a pentium 4.At least that tower had 4gb lol.Its like sprinkling a dog turd with sprinkles though.