If the singularity happens, then talk about the next 100 years might be futile, classically anyhow.
Duke Nukem Forever 2.
I'm really interested in knowing when the U.S. loses its dominance in the world.
I'm really interested in knowing when the U.S. loses its dominance in the world.
With a global economy, I think we'll see that it's not economically advantageous to go to war.
Also, with people traveling all over the place, it's just a technicality of where they're from. Lots of great Americans were citizens of other countries just years before.
Not really, no. Depends on your definition of singularitarian. I don't distribute Kurzweil bibles or pray to spaghetti if that's what you'd like to know.
I've put a lot of reading and thought into it and over time evolve my determination of what the most likely technologies of the future are. The problem with historical predictions of flying cars and moon bases became obvious to me. These were predictions based on extending the capabilities of existing technologies, lacking forethought of trends present at the time that would lead to not immediately obvious new technologies, largely because these predictions lacked a factor of practicality and necessity in their determination. Having a car and suggesting it will fly is just as natural as a caveman having a ladder and suggesting it will one day reach the moon if he just keeps on making it longer. It seems to make so much sense at the time.
Interestingly enough there were a lot of good predictions that came true, of course few people knew they were any good until they happened. It's always the silly ones that are memorable
I simply gather thoughts on future capabilities and determine their true worth to our well being. The future capabilities can be predicted fairly reliable with sufficient knowledge of present day fundamentals of the necessary technology, largely through simple calculations of core enabling technologies such as processing power, miniaturization, determining the advancement of their objective specifications (FLOPS/feature size) based on historical trends, having an idea of what the required point of advance is to achieve a desired technology, and if that technology appears to be substantially beneficial to humanity, not just apparently fantastic in capabilities, then it's reliable to say that this technology will happen, with a reasonably accurate event window.
Today (not 50 or 20 years from now, but today) there's already substantial non-biological enhancement to the human condition, specifically for those with disabilities, including two way bionic communication, neural implants that write short term memory to long term storage for those with a damaged hippocampus by effectively replacing the transfer function of it's cells, amongst many others, technologies that were simply impossible 5 years ago regardless of patient finances because of insufficient feature miniaturization and computation necessary for real time manipulation of the necessary data with feasible power requirements. Knowing a bit about where we were 20 years ago and where we are now, a prediction can be made for 20 years out that is likely to turn out surprisingly reliable as long as you limit the prediction to technological capabilities that have a consistent historical trend of change that is objectively measureable. It gets a bit more fuzzy the further out you go, especially when you consider there will be further technological breakthroughs you couldn't possibly predict, which will further enable technology beyond cautiously foreseeable applications, nevertheless, it's enough to suggest that at the expected rate of computation and miniaturization, and features in a component, a computational network that spans the entire bounds of the human brain will be standard routine sometime in the not too distant future, sooner rather than later. Once this is achieved, all your biology is effectively obsolete, as it's sole purpose as far as you are concerned is to sustain your brain. Once your brain no longer needs your brain cells because it has a superior method of transmitting communication, the heart is unnecessary, you no longer need the digestive system, and your human limbs will be slow and frail compared to the artificial ones of the time. Not that you can't keep your human body, you just will not want to as it's prone to catastrophic failure amongst other things. So is technology of course, but technological parts can be replaced overnight, and a synthetic brain can be copied and recopied as necessary, not to mention vastly expanded.
Everything we have achieved up to this point, be it better medicine, better working conditions, higher productivity, it's all about appeasing a few human desires for freedom, material wealth and health. A 'non-biological' or more specifically 'uploaded' human being by default achieves the maximum possible value of all these categories, because at that point they are no longer bound by physical limitations as to what they desire to have. For this reason, it's very apparent that this technological shift in human existence is inevitable. It's the sum and end chapter of all our historical push towards a greater well being. There is no other technology we could hope to achieve that would improve our existence any more than this, so this is how I know that future technological determination will strive to achieve this above all else. The historical trend is focusing on the technologies that most benefit our lives, and this is the motherload.
I've put a lot of reading and thought into it and over time evolve my determination of what the most likely technologies of the future are. The problem with historical predictions of flying cars and moon bases became obvious to me. These were predictions based on extending the capabilities of existing technologies, lacking forethought of trends present at the time that would lead to not immediately obvious new technologies, largely because these predictions lacked a factor of practicality and necessity in their determination. Having a car and suggesting it will fly is just as natural as a caveman having a ladder and suggesting it will one day reach the moon if he just keeps on making it longer. It seems to make so much sense at the time.
Interestingly enough there were a lot of good predictions that came true, of course few people knew they were any good until they happened. It's always the silly ones that are memorable
I simply gather thoughts on future capabilities and determine their true worth to our well being. The future capabilities can be predicted fairly reliable with sufficient knowledge of present day fundamentals of the necessary technology, largely through simple calculations of core enabling technologies such as processing power, miniaturization, determining the advancement of their objective specifications (FLOPS/feature size) based on historical trends, having an idea of what the required point of advance is to achieve a desired technology, and if that technology appears to be substantially beneficial to humanity, not just apparently fantastic in capabilities, then it's reliable to say that this technology will happen, with a reasonably accurate event window.
Today (not 50 or 20 years from now, but today) there's already substantial non-biological enhancement to the human condition, specifically for those with disabilities, including two way bionic communication, neural implants that write short term memory to long term storage for those with a damaged hippocampus by effectively replacing the transfer function of it's cells, amongst many others, technologies that were simply impossible 5 years ago regardless of patient finances because of insufficient feature miniaturization and computation necessary for real time manipulation of the necessary data with feasible power requirements. Knowing a bit about where we were 20 years ago and where we are now, a prediction can be made for 20 years out that is likely to turn out surprisingly reliable as long as you limit the prediction to technological capabilities that have a consistent historical trend of change that is objectively measureable. It gets a bit more fuzzy the further out you go, especially when you consider there will be further technological breakthroughs you couldn't possibly predict, which will further enable technology beyond cautiously foreseeable applications, nevertheless, it's enough to suggest that at the expected rate of computation and miniaturization, and features in a component, a computational network that spans the entire bounds of the human brain will be standard routine sometime in the not too distant future, sooner rather than later. Once this is achieved, all your biology is effectively obsolete, as it's sole purpose as far as you are concerned is to sustain your brain. Once your brain no longer needs your brain cells because it has a superior method of transmitting communication, the heart is unnecessary, you no longer need the digestive system, and your human limbs will be slow and frail compared to the artificial ones of the time. Not that you can't keep your human body, you just will not want to as it's prone to catastrophic failure amongst other things. So is technology of course, but technological parts can be replaced overnight, and a synthetic brain can be copied and recopied as necessary, not to mention vastly expanded.
Everything we have achieved up to this point, be it better medicine, better working conditions, higher productivity, it's all about appeasing a few human desires for freedom, material wealth and health. A 'non-biological' or more specifically 'uploaded' human being by default achieves the maximum possible value of all these categories, because at that point they are no longer bound by physical limitations as to what they desire to have. For this reason, it's very apparent that this technological shift in human existence is inevitable. It's the sum and end chapter of all our historical push towards a greater well being. There is no other technology we could hope to achieve that would improve our existence any more than this, so this is how I know that future technological determination will strive to achieve this above all else. The historical trend is focusing on the technologies that most benefit our lives, and this is the motherload.
I understand what you're saying. I'm a lot like you in that respect: I kind of realize some of these things early on, but never really necessarily subscribe to a strict philosophy a.k.a. Extropianism.
The increasing popularity and growing sophistication of video games is yet another deterministic indicator for such a trend towards the non-physical. Our ultimate environment in which we spend all our life will be constructed not unlike that of a modern day game. It's just a prelude to what will happen. It wouldn't even be too far off to say that the rudimental temporary involvement we have today in a virtual environment is a primitive upload, considering it works as a detachment from physical reality.
BrokenVisage
Lifer
- Jan 29, 2005
- 24,771
- 14
- 81
Here's an easy one.. Dubya will be out of office in under 2 years, change doesn't get much more major than that.
ultimatebob
Lifer
- Jul 1, 2001
- 25,134
- 2,450
- 126
Cold Fusion
People on Mars
China and India teaming up and taking over the world
An affordable iPhone
Probably in that order
People on Mars
China and India teaming up and taking over the world
An affordable iPhone
Probably in that order
Triumph
Lifer
- Oct 9, 1999
- 15,031
- 14
- 81
Someone will continue feeding Africans just enough to keep them alive so that they can continue to appear in commercials on late night TV asking for money for food to continue feeding Africans just enough to keep them alive so that they can continue to appear in commercials on late night TV asking for money for food to continue feeding Africans just enough to keep them alive so that they can continue to appear in commercials on late night TV asking for money for food to continue feeding Africans just enough to keep them alive so that they can continue to appear in commercials on late night TV asking for money for food to continue feeding Africans just enough to keep them alive...................
I think we'll see more of a lateral growth in technology. The political landscape will be very different so I doubt we'll get far in terms of AI, nanotech, etc. etc. What we currently percieve to be the 'future', that's only the future for elite sectors of the United States.
Instead, we'll probably see a revolution in how information is transported. The Internet will become faster and more widespread, and probably become satellite-borne. There'll be progress made in the fields of transportation, resource-recycling (water), energy (oil, coal, etc.), etc. Also with regards to the application of technology to existing sectors like those and others (financial).
Instead, we'll probably see a revolution in how information is transported. The Internet will become faster and more widespread, and probably become satellite-borne. There'll be progress made in the fields of transportation, resource-recycling (water), energy (oil, coal, etc.), etc. Also with regards to the application of technology to existing sectors like those and others (financial).
DrPizza
Administrator Elite Member Goat Whisperer
Flying cars? I don't even feel that half the idiots on the road are really that qualified to control their vehicles in two dimensions. Adding a 3rd dimension to their travel plans is a recipe for disaster, regardless of the existence of flying cars. For what it's worth, there are cars that hover above the ground available now. And, I don't think anyone with a good grounding in physics/science has ever seriously suggested that we would have flying cars anytime soon. At the same time, the number of people with personal aircraft has increased greatly.
During the next 100 years:
The international space station will be almost completed. The US will wake up and realize that while our major goal was learning how to cooperate internationally on such a large program, Russia from the onset realized the truth: it's a nice vacation destination for the super-rich, otherwise it's virtually useless.
The Higgs boson is discovered.
100 more years worth of evidence to support the Big Bang theory pours in, as well as 100 years worth of more evidence which all supports evolution. No evidence which disputes either theory. 100 years from now, 60% of the US population still won't believe in either. Oh wait - you were looking for major changes, not what's going to stay the same.
100 years from now, either one group is going to say "ha ha, I told you so... Global Warming is NOT because of humans" or "ha ha, I told you so... Global warming is too because of humans." Regardless, one group - those formerly living along the coast - is going to say "blub blub blub blub." (imagine someone speaking under water - sorry)
After a backlash against violence in movies, Jason Voorhees starts tickling people to death in the 60th sequel to Friday the 13th.
All road signs in the United States are required by law to be in two languages: English and Spanish. The Spanish translation will be on top in California, Texas, and Florida.
Companies start up which specialize in mining old landfills and recycling the garbage contained within. A few people become mega-rich in the process. Landfills become a thing of the past as resources have been stretched thin and recycling methods have been improved.
During the next 100 years:
The international space station will be almost completed. The US will wake up and realize that while our major goal was learning how to cooperate internationally on such a large program, Russia from the onset realized the truth: it's a nice vacation destination for the super-rich, otherwise it's virtually useless.
The Higgs boson is discovered.
100 more years worth of evidence to support the Big Bang theory pours in, as well as 100 years worth of more evidence which all supports evolution. No evidence which disputes either theory. 100 years from now, 60% of the US population still won't believe in either. Oh wait - you were looking for major changes, not what's going to stay the same.
100 years from now, either one group is going to say "ha ha, I told you so... Global Warming is NOT because of humans" or "ha ha, I told you so... Global warming is too because of humans." Regardless, one group - those formerly living along the coast - is going to say "blub blub blub blub." (imagine someone speaking under water - sorry)
After a backlash against violence in movies, Jason Voorhees starts tickling people to death in the 60th sequel to Friday the 13th.
All road signs in the United States are required by law to be in two languages: English and Spanish. The Spanish translation will be on top in California, Texas, and Florida.
Companies start up which specialize in mining old landfills and recycling the garbage contained within. A few people become mega-rich in the process. Landfills become a thing of the past as resources have been stretched thin and recycling methods have been improved.
Paranoid logic, can't begin to imagine where you got those ideas.
In only 100 years? Shocking. Absolutely unbelievable.
Never gonna happen, not on the mainstream. Latency too high, bandwidth too low.
Ok, now you must be joking. Progress, in technology? No way.
Why are you only dissecting my response and skipping some of the others?
And splitting up a sentence so you can quote one part out of context in order to make your 'witty' response is bad form.
I also don't see how it's paranoid to assume the future will not be the exclusive American vision of the future we have today, including only our view of technology and where it's headed. A lot of the "Progress, in technology? No way" isn't needed here and would be taken for granted here, that's why it was notable enough for me to mention. Progress in technology will be by and large that progress which will benefit other than strictly the United States (and Canada/Britain/whatever).
Jeff7
Lifer
- Jan 4, 2001
- 41,596
- 19
- 81
However, the rich lobbyists of the landfill-mining industry will bribe politicians to limit the amount of recycling done, thus continuing the flow of reusable trash into landfills, where it can be mined at great expense, but also at great profit to those wealthy few. Beware of the Landfill-Industrial Complex!
But how great would it be to finally have intelligent robots, and then be able to put them to work sifting through landfills looking for useful materials? Equip them with magnetic induction sensors to find metals, and maybe spectrometers to determine the composition of what they find. Heck, the Mars Science Lab rover will have a laser on it capable of vaporizing surface layers of rocks; it will analyze the vapor produced to determine exactly what the rock is made out of. So we could have robots picking through trash, shooting pieces of it with their eye-mounted lasers.
Aw, way to bring down the thread.Originally posted by: Rubycon
Death.
It's a mathematical certainty.
< - 43
I look forward to a time when technology will finally allow us to shed these crappy biological containers and truly expand our minds. Imagine having a more powerful mind, capable of doing things impossible for these biological minds. Multiple parallel consciousnesses, wireless, nonverbal communication links, losslessly-compressed memories, rapid-recall capabilities, and who knows what else. Maybe even upgradable memory.
Dear Nature,
Thank you for the biological Rube-Goldbergian brains capable of sentience. We'll take it from here.
Humanity
I will co-sign all of that. Plus many more advances that we cannot foresee. People don't realize that the last 50 years saw more technological advance than the last 500 years. The next 10 years will be revolutionary in all aspects. looking more than 50 years out is difficult at this point. 50 years from now, robotics, real AI, embedded supercomputers in everything including our brains and bodies will be the standard. I think lifespans will be way way beyond 100 years. Many futurists do not see why lifetimes could not extend to 500 years.
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