What is your solution for an economy that is experiencing a deflationary spiral?

Page 2 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
Save money, wait for dumbshits to lose their assets, buy up cheap shit, profit.

Ammo is not deflating... wonder why?

Just a PSA - takes about 10,000 rounds per kill in a war zone.
 
Last edited:

Budarow

Golden Member
Dec 16, 2001
1,917
0
0
1. Go to war and create artificial demand/supply of military goods which constantly needs to be replaced. Oh....I forgot, we're already in a couple of wars and it's not working.

2. Massive government debt spending to create artifical demand/supply of goods and services. Oh...I forgot, we've already done this over the past ~2 years and it's not working.

3. Bend over and kiss your a$$ goodbye?
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
1. Go to war and create artificial demand/supply of military goods which constantly needs to be replaced. Oh....I forgot, we're already in a couple of wars and it's not working.

2. Massive government debt spending to create artifical demand/supply of goods and services. Oh...I forgot, we've already done this over the past ~2 years and it's not working.

3. Bend over and kiss your a$$ goodbye?

No we just need to get in more debt to solve our debt problems.:twisted:
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
I used to have a drinking problem I knew I should have fixed it with another bottle of whiskey instead of running in this heat day in day out.
 

brencat

Platinum Member
Feb 26, 2007
2,170
3
76
Bernanke will most likely try quantitative easing again. I read something today (FT I think) that suggests we would need ~ $5 trillion QE for the 2nd attempt...about 3x what we did in the first bailout. But with Europe pulling back spending in favor of austerity, combined with fact that the first bailout was hugely unpopular, the political will for a 2nd attempt isn't there. If Bernanke does it, my guess is it won't have the desired effect, and certainly not without joint cooperation from Europe.

Nope, time to pay the piper suckers. There will be deflation...creditors will get crushed and the long term unemployed will be really fucked. Unfortunately, we lived beyond our means so long and there is so much debt there's no other way but to have it all burn down and start over. Sorry to be so negative...maybe look in the mirror at what y'all helped create?
 

Siddhartha

Lifer
Oct 17, 1999
12,505
3
81
So far,
some people want to cut government spending during a recession. one vote to deport the poor. A couple of votes to do nothing and let it happen. one vote to starting hoarding and buying guns to protect the hoard.
 

IGBT

Lifer
Jul 16, 2001
17,976
141
106
So far,
some people want to cut government spending during a recession. one vote to deport the poor. A couple of votes to do nothing and let it happen. one vote to starting hoarding and buying guns to protect the hoard.


the Hoard protects it's own.
 

exdeath

Lifer
Jan 29, 2004
13,679
10
81
Stop wondering why the cost of living is going up and how people can't afford it because their pay doesn't go up... right after you just increased taxes for them and their employer.

Stop trying to provide everything for everybody and admit that you can't support communism because of the real world limitation of scarce resources, such other people's finite incomes.

Quit cutting blank checks and the backs of the public. When times are good you have your fancy phones cable TV, 3 SUVs, etc, when times are bad you have to cut back to what you had before you could afford all that stuff, before whatever boom. When times are tough for we the people we have to do without and make decisions between A or B, we cant just continute having A and B and forcing someone else to pay for it. You can't just give yourself a 10% raise and keep moving forward like a ratchet and never going back. If you still want that SUV, you have to give up your cable TV. Want cable TV, you have to give up your cell phone. Government needs to work the same way, working with what it has, not just infinitely working it's way to 100%+ taxation. For every new budget item added, something of equal value needs to be taken away, and the people that bitch about their first of the month payout being cut need to be ignored, because them being in their situation means they don't get this very concept either.

Likewise, want healthcare insurance for all, give up social security and welfare, etc. Trade offs. For everything you create, it needs to come from somewhere else, not just added on top indefinately. Don't just ask for more money for more programs. Instead ask "do you want A or B, your choice, but we can only afford one without raising your taxes". Then shoot all the leeches who don't think that applies to them because they can tax someone else so they can have their cake and eat it too.
 
Last edited:

BoberFett

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
37,562
9
81
Ammo is not deflating... wonder why?

Just a PSA - takes about 10,000 rounds per kill in a war zone.

I have a hard time believing that. If you simply add up all the rounds spent and divide by kills, maybe if you included vehicle mounted fire. Miniguns that throw out thousands of round per minute will shred a vehicle or building to pieces to kill the couple of occupants. You can't really count that though.

For small arms combat the number isn't anything like that. Hell, just some quick math says that a whole platoon doesn't carry that much ammo, I'd hope they'd get more than one kill after spending everything they carried.
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
I have a hard time believing that. If you simply add up all the rounds spent and divide by kills, maybe if you included vehicle mounted fire. Miniguns that throw out thousands of round per minute will shred a vehicle or building to pieces to kill the couple of occupants. You can't really count that though.

For small arms combat the number isn't anything like that. Hell, just some quick math says that a whole platoon doesn't carry that much ammo, I'd hope they'd get more than one kill after spending everything they carried.

Well yeah sure I'm talking training, suppressive and cover fire, everything. Some estimates are as high as 250K per kill.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...use-250000-for-every-rebel-killed-508299.html

My point was don't plan on having 1000rds of ammo and 8 guns in the safe like so many friends I know. I blown through that in a day before. I'd rather have 8000rds and one weapon should need arise. Actually more like 45,000 rounds but whos counting....:p

I think a M4 load out is 300 rds in Iraq.
 
Last edited:

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
Bernanke will most likely try quantitative easing again. I read something today (FT I think) that suggests we would need ~ $5 trillion QE for the 2nd attempt...about 3x what we did in the first bailout. But with Europe pulling back spending in favor of austerity, combined with fact that the first bailout was hugely unpopular, the political will for a 2nd attempt isn't there. If Bernanke does it, my guess is it won't have the desired effect, and certainly not without joint cooperation from Europe.

Nope, time to pay the piper suckers. There will be deflation...creditors will get crushed and the long term unemployed will be really fucked. Unfortunately, we lived beyond our means so long and there is so much debt there's no other way but to have it all burn down and start over. Sorry to be so negative...maybe look in the mirror at what y'all helped create?
This is a good post bro. And nothing "negative" about it... only positive can come of it in the long run. Think about how Great Depression people were, such as your grandparents, aka the greatest generation with virtues like frugality, honesty, workers, politically involved etc. They didn't get that way by accident- they went through hell called the Great depression and experiences shaped them. Likewise, these so-called entitled brats we have today will become out of necessity visa vi the Greater Depression and another 60 years of prosperity will result.

Check out The Fourth Turning - this 80 yr cycle is natural and should be embraced. Not that you have much choice.
 
Last edited:

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,862
6,396
126
This is a good post bro. And nothing "negative" about it... only positive can come of it in the long run. Think about how Great Depression people were, such as your grandparents, aka the greatest generation with virtues like frugality, honesty, workers, politically involved etc. They didn't get that way by accident- they went through hell called the Great depression and experiences shaped them. Likewise, these so-called entitled brats we have today will become out of necessity visa vi the Greater Depression and another 60 years of prosperity will result.

Check out The Fourth Turning - this 80 yr cycle is natural and should be embraced. Not that you have much choice.

"Natural", rofl.
 

Siddhartha

Lifer
Oct 17, 1999
12,505
3
81
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/29/business/global/29austerity.html?th&emc=th

In Ireland, a Picture of the High Cost of Austerity

DUBLIN — As Europe’s major economies focus on belt-tightening, they are following the path of Ireland. But the once thriving nation is struggling, with no sign of a rapid turnaround in sight.

Multimedia
Slide Show
The Celtic Tiger Struggles Readers' Comments
Share your thoughts.
Post a Comment »
Nearly two years ago, an economic collapse forced Ireland to cut public spending and raise taxes, the type of austerity measures that financial markets are now pressing on most advanced industrial nations.

“When our public finance situation blew wide open, the dominant consideration was ensuring that there was international investor confidence in Ireland so we could continue to borrow,” said Alan Barrett, chief economist at the Economic and Social Research Institute of Ireland. “A lot of the argument was, ‘Let’s get this over with quickly.’ ”

Rather than being rewarded for its actions, though, Ireland is being penalized. Its downturn has certainly been sharper than if the government had spent more to keep people working. Lacking stimulus money, the Irish economy shrank 7.1 percent last year and remains in recession.

Joblessness in this country of 4.5 million is above 13 percent, and the ranks of the long-term unemployed — those out of work for a year or more — have more than doubled, to 5.3 percent.

Now, the Irish are being warned of more pain to come.

“The facts are that there is no easy way to cut deficits,” Prime Minister Brian Cowen said in an interview. “Those who claim there’s an easier way or a soft option — that’s not the real world.”

Despite its strenuous efforts, Ireland has been thrust into the same ignominious category as Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain. It now pays a hefty three percentage points more than Germany on its benchmark bonds, in part because investors fear that the austerity program, by retarding growth and so far failing to reduce borrowing, will make it harder for Dublin to pay its bills rather than easier.

Other European nations, including Britain and Germany, are following Ireland’s lead, arguing that the only way to restore growth is to convince investors and their own people that government borrowing will shrink.

The Group of 20 leaders set that in writing this weekend, vowing to make deficit reduction the top priority despite warnings from President Obama that too much austerity could choke a global recovery and warnings from a few economists about the possibility of a much sharper 1930s style downturn.

“Europe is in a tough bind,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and now a Harvard professor. “If you want to escape default, the Irish path is the only way to go. But the Ireland experience points to the profound challenges that the current strategy implies.”

Politicians here have raised taxes and cut salaries for nurses, professors and other public workers by up to 20 percent. About 30 billion euros ($37 billion) is being poured into zombie banks like Anglo Irish, which was nationalized after lavishing loans on developers.

The budget went from surpluses in 2006 and 2007 to a staggering deficit of 14.3 percent of gross domestic product last year — worse than Greece. It continues to deteriorate. Drained of cash after an American-style housing boom went bust, Ireland has had to borrow billions; its once ultralow debt could rise to 77 percent of G.D.P. this year.

“Everybody’s feeling quite sick at what happened because things were going so well for Ireland,” said Patrick Honohan, the Irish central bank governor. “But we don’t have the flexibility to do a spending stimulus now. There’s no one who is even arguing for it.”

Mr. Honohan predicts growth could revive to a rate of about 3 percent by 2012. But that may be optimistic: Ireland, as one of the 16 nations in Europe that has adopted the euro as its common currency, is trying to shrink the deficit to 3 percent of G.D.P. by 2014, a commitment that could weaken its hopes for recovery.

These troubles sting many Irish, given the head start Ireland has on most members of the euro club. Its labor market is one of Europe’s most open and dynamic. After its last major recession in the 1980s, it lured knowledge-based multinationals like Intel and Microsoft — and now Facebook and Linked-In — with a 12.5 percent tax rate, giving Ireland one of the most export-dependent economies in the world.

Now, the government is pinning nearly all its hopes on an export revival to lift the economy. Falling wage and energy costs, and a weaker euro, have improved competitiveness.

Turning statistics into jobs, however, will be a herculean task. “Exports alone don’t drive a significant number of jobs,” said Paul Duffy, a vice president at Pfizer in Ireland.

Wage cuts were easier to impose here because people remembered that leaders moved too slowly to overcome Ireland’s last recession. This time, Mr. Cowen struck accords swiftly with labor unions, which agreed that protests like those in Greece would only delay a recovery.

But pay cuts have spooked consumers into saving, weighing on the prospects for job creation and economic recovery. And after a decade-long boom that encouraged many from the previous years of diaspora to return, the country is facing a new threat: business leaders say thousands of skilled young Irish are now moving out, raising fears of a brain drain.

David Stronge returned to Dublin in 2006 from an architecture job in Britain. “I wanted to come back here and get a piece of this action,” he said. “And I did for about a year. But then it started to tank.”

Multimedia
Slide Show
The Celtic Tiger Struggles Readers' Comments
Share your thoughts.
Post a Comment »
He moved to reinvent himself, returning to school with thousands of other Irish, in hopes that a higher degree would lead to better prospects. Mr. Stronge plans to seek alternative energy jobs in Britain once he gets his master’s degree in August.

“Ireland isn’t going to spend on infrastructure probably for another 10 to 15 years,” he said. “So you have to go to where the opportunities are.”

At the D Café, a sandwich shop facing a stretch of empty buildings in Dublin’s Docklands enclave, even that dream seems impossible. “If you’re self-employed and lose your job, you’re entitled to nothing, not even the dole,” said Debbie, the owner, who would only give her first name.

She transformed her convenience store into a deli when Liam Carroll, a property baron, threw up the nearby developments. But the tenants never came, and her business evaporated.

“It’s so destroying,” she said, gazing out the window. “We all live day by day, and we don’t know when it will ever pick up.”

Signs of the decline encrust Dublin’s streets. Boisterous crowds still mash onto the cobbles of Temple Bar. Yet farther out, “To Let” posters obscure the hollowed shells of once-vibrant cafes and clothing shops.

Fifteen minutes north of the city center, hulks of empty buildings form stark symbols of why Ireland must now hunker down. At Elm Park, a soaring industrial and residential complex, 700 employees of the German insurer Allianz are the lone occupants of a space designed for thousands.

In the impoverished Ballymun neighborhood, developers began razing slums to make way for new low-income housing. Halfway through the project, the financing dried up, leaving some residents to languish in graffiti-covered concrete skeletons. “Welcome to Hell,” read one of the tamest messages.

Now the government is debating whether to demolish developments it inherited from the banks it nationalized, and restore them to green pasture.

A bitter sense of regret punctuates chatter at any Irish bar, where the topic often turns to vilified bankers and politicians, or the latest jobless figures.

While no one is marching in the streets, the Irish do have a tipping point: Prime Minister Cowen, whose popularity has plummeted, agreed last week not to cut public wages again in the next budget. Many voters, having experienced the pain of austerity, are expected to express their anger in the 2012 elections.

“Then,” said Paul Sweeney, economic adviser to the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, “the Irish for once are going to have their revenge served cold.”
 

Modelworks

Lifer
Feb 22, 2007
16,240
7
76
Let people do without. Bailing out people that can't recognize you cannot live beyond your means is just like giving money to a drug addict who promises he will quit. The root of the problem is people do not get that . Credit only puts off the inevitable for people that are spending more than they earn. Until people have to do without because of their actions nothing will change. Their is next to zero consequences to someone who defaults on a loan . Credit score ? Who cares , there will always be someone willing to lend them money.

If you can't afford the expensive home, new car, or can't find work in your chosen field you do what our grandparents did. You find a cheaper home, used car and work whatever job you can that will allow you to continue living. You don't spend all you can then complain to the government that life is not fair. Maybe they should implement a new credit policy, default on a loan and no credit for x years on anything, cash only , to teach people how to manage money.
 

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
Lets filter out the classic ATP&N lefty vs righty name calling.

What are the options for dealing with an economy that is facing a deflationary spiral?

What economic solutions do you support?

What are the options for dealing with failing confidence in our government, economic model, and our currency?

That's the problem with "progressives", you only want to examine and make decisions based on but a fraction of the situation.