Originally posted by: CycloWizard
You're right - it's either true or it's not, but that in no way implies 50-50 odds. By this logic, there would equally be 50-50 odds of God existing.Originally posted by: SlitheryDee
I think that the point he was trying to make in this particular passage is that there IS a definite answer. If the bottom line was that alien life either exists or does not, does that not work out to either 100 percent (true) or 0 percent (false)? What means would we use to estimate the probability of alien life that wouldn't be as indefinite as the drake equation anyway.
As I mentioned before, the Drake equation is mathematically correct. The problem is the arbitrary manner used to generate the coefficients, which could only truly be found from experimentation.
You've totally skimmed over my explanation. I'll keep it short, you can look up my explanation again, if you aren't satisfied.
Pure mathematical odds are based on a premise, which means that you can determine (in the coin case) 50-50 odds. And there is a definite answer as "slitherydee" puts it.
However, God's existence doesn't derive from a logical premise. So, it's irrelevant to put it in terms of mathematical equation. I think my example was the existence of Mr. Bush with the body of a cockroach, who can fly over Antarctica while singing, "Who let the dog out." Does this particular Mr. Bush exist? The answer is irrelevant, because the question itself is irrelevant.
Which fundamentally leads to the following answer.
If this alien equation is based on logically developed fundamentals, then there is an "odd" of this particular even happening. But then again, that's highly arbitrary--precisely the reason why philosophers disagree all the time (not about the alien issue, but what constitutes a fundamental).
But in the God case, many would argue that it lacks a building fundamental, therefore, it's less of an "odd" issue than "faith" issue.
I hope this clarifies my point.