What is going to happen to AMD?

[coercitiv]

Sometimes you have laptops reaching the limits of the power supply. Case in point on the surface 3 (cherry trail) the tablet shut off under such a load, possibly because the power brick was overworked.

That's odd, mobile devices usually switch over to battery when power supply is overloaded. I'd rather go with the explanation NBC provided, since adding Furmark after the tablet was already warmed up could push the SoC temp from ~80C to the max 90C.

Then again it's fun to test Prime95+Furmark on a passively cooled tablet. Never know when that fan may fail

 

[DrMrLordX]

The battery has maximum current/voltage delivery limits as well, does it not? The socket and power pins also have limits.

That's been an issue with Kaveri on some cheaper desktop boards. Once you push power delivery past the socket's limits, you really don't gain any performance no matter what the reported clockspeed.

 

[coercitiv]

The battery has maximum current/voltage delivery limits as well, does it not? The socket and power pins also have limits.

Of course it does, but keep in mind the described scenario involves the CPU downclocked to 540Mhz. I doubt the battery cannot sustain full GPU load only.

My guess is they also tested the same scenario with a cold tablet and saw it stay on "significantly" longer before shutting down. However, it's just a guess.

 

[pablo87]

AMD probably hit bottom in Q1. Balance sheet isn't the greatest but with annual revenues of $1B dependent on AMD's survival, worst case scenario GF will backstop them financially. Plus, short term AMD has 2 winners, Carrizo and HBM GPU's, on a trailing edge process mind you.

Longer term, they have 3 significant areas of upside: narrowing the process gap, Zen and HBM. HBM is a game changer, in particular HBM2 could enable incredible gaming performance on mainstream mobile PC's powered by AMD APU's.

 

[ggadrian]

AMD probably hit bottom in Q1. Balance sheet isn't the greatest but with annual revenues of $1B dependent on AMD's survival, worst case scenario GF will backstop them financially. Plus, short term AMD has 2 winners, Carrizo and HBM GPU's, on a trailing edge process mind you.

Longer term, they have 3 significant areas of upside: narrowing the process gap, Zen and HBM. HBM is a game changer, in particular HBM2 could enable incredible gaming performance on mainstream mobile PC's powered by AMD APU's.

I use a kaveri laptop at work (HP elitebook) and after using it I believe that if carrizo can improve battery life and maintain slightly higher clocks it will be a very competitive product.

It will have worse CPU performance than intel offerings, but for the majority of users it will not matter as it'll be good enough.

 

[William Gaatjes]

I use a kaveri laptop at work (HP elitebook) and after using it I believe that if carrizo can improve battery life and maintain slightly higher clocks it will be a very competitive product.

It will have worse CPU performance than intel offerings, but for the majority of users it will not matter as it'll be good enough.

Is it just me or are laptops with AMD apu's not priced competitively compared with intel based offerings ? When i look at the prices asked for amd laptops, it is just absurd.

EDIT:
Maybe it is not so bad after all. Comparing different sites can make a 100 to 200 euro difference.

The dutch hp site seems to price AMD based laptops cheaper than Intel based laptops.

 

[frozentundra123456]

AMD probably hit bottom in Q1. Balance sheet isn't the greatest but with annual revenues of $1B dependent on AMD's survival, worst case scenario GF will backstop them financially. Plus, short term AMD has 2 winners, Carrizo and HBM GPU's, on a trailing edge process mind you.

Longer term, they have 3 significant areas of upside: narrowing the process gap, Zen and HBM. HBM is a game changer, in particular HBM2 could enable incredible gaming performance on mainstream mobile PC's powered by AMD APU's.

The myth of Tantalus. Anyway, I would call Carrizo and 390x "potential" winners, since we have no prices or performance information yet on either of them. And ultimately, fairly or not, the marketplace and design wins will determine whether or not they are "winners".

As for Zen and future HBM apus, those are even bigger unknowns. It is very disappointing that no Zen APUs will be available till 2017.

 

[ph2000]

Is it just me or are laptops with AMD apu's not priced competitively compared with intel based offerings ? When i look at the prices asked for amd laptops, it is just absurd.

EDIT:
Maybe it is not so bad after all. Comparing different sites can make a 100 to 200 euro difference.

The dutch hp site seems to price AMD based laptops cheaper than Intel based laptops.

in my country
A10-7300 is priced between i3 and i5 (lenovo)

 

[AtenRa]

There are many countries even within EU with no Laptop Kaveri availability at all. And this is AMDs inability to promote and push their products. Also no cheap 35W Kaveri iGPU only laptops were ever maid. Again this is AMDs fault, no guidance/pressure from AMD towards the OEMs to create cheap 35W TDP iGPU only laptops.
I dont expect Carriso to do any better from sales and market penetration not because of lack of performance/competitiveness but AMD inability to push its products to the market.
You cannot sell a product if you are absent from the market and that is going on for the last 2-3 years. Kaveri mobile was very competitive, Carrizo will be even better but once again it will not be able to increase AMDs presence in the consumer channel because they are after the corporate market.

edit: And im expecting the same thing like Kaveri Laptop prices to happen again, Carrizo Laptops will be way more expensive at the first 6 months that they will be uncompetitive against Intels Core i3 Broadwells with or without dGPUs. And then Skylake will come and perhaps in early 2016 Carrizo Laptops prices will start to fall to were they should have been from the start.

 

[ggadrian]

Is it just me or are laptops with AMD apu's not priced competitively compared with intel based offerings ? When i look at the prices asked for amd laptops, it is just absurd.

EDIT:
Maybe it is not so bad after all. Comparing different sites can make a 100 to 200 euro difference.

The dutch hp site seems to price AMD based laptops cheaper than Intel based laptops.

I don't know, I haven't bought mine (if I wold have provably bought the i5 version), but I have been looking at some prices and the A10 models are between i3 and i5's in price, as ph2000 said.

 

[cbn]

Also no cheap 35W Kaveri iGPU only laptops were ever maid. Again this is AMDs fault, no guidance/pressure from AMD towards the OEMs to create cheap 35W TDP iGPU only laptops.

One thing I would hope AMD does is get more aggressive with their dual core binning (re: for a dual core would enabling a greater amount of iGPU threaten quad core sales? I am thinking it wouldn't) For example, A6-PRO-7050B only had 192 GCN processors enabled, but that just seems too low for a processor die capable of 512 GCN processors.

In fact, wouldn't a cheap but relatively fast dual core open the door for discounted 35 watt quad core Carrizo's later on? (re: once the laptop's mainboard and form factor is set dropping in another 35 watt Carrizo SKU into that same design shouldn't be a problem and maybe the higher total volume could help lower cost for 35 watt iGPU only laptops?)

P.S. I also wonder if AMD makes a low voltage SKU from the 14nm Zen desktop die? Then uses this low voltage desktop part + dGPU to replace Carrizo with dGPU. (This especially if Zen desktop die can be used a SoC)

Then we see additional discounted Carrizo (with DDR4 enabled) laptops (without dGPU)?

 

[iCyborg]

Again this is AMDs fault, no guidance/pressure from AMD towards the OEMs to create cheap 35W TDP iGPU only laptops.
I dont expect Carriso to do any better from sales and market penetration not because of lack of performance/competitiveness but AMD inability to push its products to the market.
You cannot sell a product if you are absent from the market and that is going on for the last 2-3 years. Kaveri mobile was very competitive, Carrizo will be even better but once again it will not be able to increase AMDs presence in the consumer channel because they are after the corporate market.

I feel like you got it opposite - OEMs are the ones that push products to the market and the ones with the upper hand in the relationship. They will assess performance/competitiveness and decide if it makes sense to develop a design. The low availability of Kaveri laptops is due to OEMs believing it won't sell well, not because AMD isn't pushing products hard enough.

 

[AtenRa]

I feel like you got it opposite - OEMs are the ones that push products to the market and the ones with the upper hand in the relationship. They will assess performance/competitiveness and decide if it makes sense to develop a design. The low availability of Kaveri laptops is due to OEMs believing it won't sell well, not because AMD isn't pushing products hard enough.

AMDs problem the last 2-3 years is not the performance/competitiveness of their products but the lack of man power. They only spend 131M for MG&A in Q1 2015, their business model is orchestrated for the commercial market and not for the consumer since Rory Read.
You will see that Carrizo will be an excellent and very competitive product and yet they will not be able to increase consumer market share in 2015. They dont have the man power to focus and enforce their products penetration in the consumer market in every country like they used to be in the past. Today AMD is not a consumer oriented company since 2012, simple as that.
Kaveri was an excellent product very competitive in 35W TDP market and yet nobody made a cheap 35W TDP iGPU only laptop. There was not an Intel SKU to be competitive in that segment, even today with Broadwell.
Im certain they will lose the opportunity with Carrizo as well. A 35W TDP, DDR-4 2133MHz iGPU only Carrizo will be a perfect product for cheap 13,6" to 15,6" gaming laptops for 1366x768 screens. Im betting nobody will make a Carrizo laptop like that.

 

[cbn]

A 35W TDP, DDR-4 2133MHz iGPU only Carrizo will be a perfect product for cheap 13,6" to 15,6" gaming laptops for 1366x768 screens. Im betting nobody will make a Carrizo laptop like that.

How about instead of having the dual core SKU in ULV, they move it up to 35 watt?

Then also enable more GCN sp's on the iGPU? (384 minimum, but 448 or 512 would be better)

Then share this same motherboard and laptop chassis with the quad core 35W Carrizos?

How do you feel about that?

 

[AtenRa]

How about instead of having the dual core SKU in ULV, they move it up to 35 watt?

Then also enable more GCN sp's on the iGPU? (384 minimum, but 448 or 512 would be better)

Then share this same motherboard and laptop chassis with the quad core 35W Carrizos?

How do you feel about that?

I'd rather have two modules 4 threads at 35W TDP at lower clocks than higher clocked single Module 2 Threads.

But a Single Module Dual core high clocks + 256 iGPU cores with cheap DDR-3 1600/1866 memory at 35W TDP as a cheap alternative would be acceptable.

 

[cbn]

I'd rather have two modules 4 threads at 35W TDP at lower clocks than higher clocked single Module 2 Threads.

AtenRA,

Looking at the graph (to the right) for normalized clockspeed vs. power draw, I am thinking Base clocks would be higher on single module, but not by much. Max 1C turbo should be the same for both the single module and dual module parts.

Under iGPU load (assuming iGPU clocks and sizes are the same), the dual module would benefit from being able to spread power drop to CPU over two modules rather than having it all concentrated in one module. However, the point on the frequency vs. power curve (for the power drop) begins at steeper point for the dual module. Because of this my guess is that both 35W single module APU and 35W dual module APU will have similar CPU downclocking under iGPU load.

Overall, for these reasons I view the dual module as a much better SKU and this is why I wonder why AMD feels the need to disable iGPU on single module beyond 384 stream processors?

 

[mrmt]

I feel like you got it opposite - OEMs are the ones that push products to the market and the ones with the upper hand in the relationship. They will assess performance/competitiveness and decide if it makes sense to develop a design. The low availability of Kaveri laptops is due to OEMs believing it won't sell well, not because AMD isn't pushing products hard enough.

This. AMD doesn't really have products suitable for OEMs. Their processors might have enough performance but they simply lack the scale, and the cost structure tobe competitive against Intel. You simply cannot compete selling chips twice the size of your competitor while trailing one of the most important features for the mobile market, power management.

 

[Arachnotronic]

This. AMD doesn't really have products suitable for OEMs. Their processors might have enough performance but they simply lack the scale, and the cost structure tobe competitive against Intel. You simply cannot compete selling chips twice the size of your competitor while trailing one of the most important features for the mobile market, power management.

I agree, but it goes deeper than this.

Intel not only has the advantages you mentioned, but the company also spends significantly on putting together system designs. To my knowledge, a good portion of the "nice" Ultrabook designs that make it to market were actually designed by Intel and licensed to OEMs.

Further, Intel is able to provide a full platform to system vendors, including Wi-Fi/Bluetooth combo chips, Thunderbolt controller, Ethernet NIC, etc. AMD, AFAIK, is much more limited in this regard.

Finally, Intel is a brand that is instantly recognizable by a good portion of computer buyers. Very few consumers know about AMD. Intel has invested significantly in building its brand and the OEMs do their best to leverage this.

 

[frozentundra123456]

Yea, I agree it is some of both. Intel obviously has much greater resources and brand recognition, and can push new designs. But AMD simply does not have a compelling product either. The only real advantage they have is better igpu performance, but bandwidth and thermal limitations still limit performance to the "almost but not quite" good enough for gaming category. That is why I am totally confused by them not having Zen apus with HBM, instead of a cpu only. Maybe they simply did not have the resources to pull this off yet, or they are waiting for HBM2, but a Zen APU with HBM would seem to me the only product AMD could produce that would be a compelling purchase vs intel. Carrizo may be a good product, but it already is competing against Broadwell, and probably by 2016 skylake mobile. I see it as at best an OK product that will have to compete on price and better but still mediocre igpu performance.

 

[NTMBK]

That is why I am totally confused by them not having Zen apus with HBM, instead of a cpu only. Maybe they simply did not have the resources to pull this off yet, or they are waiting for HBM2, but a Zen APU with HBM would seem to me the only product AMD could produce that would be a compelling purchase vs intel.

I presume that they are waiting for HBM2, and for HBM prices to come down. If they could get 4GB stacks and attach an APU to two stacks, that would make for a great gaming laptop.

 

[Phynaz]

AMDs problem the last 2-3 years is not the performance/competitiveness of their products

It's absolutely about this. AMD is producing products their customers (OEMs) don't want to buy.

 

[Vortex6700]

Relevant:


Fudzilla.com - Home: Analysts claim AMD will be bankrupt by 2020. http://www.fudzilla.com/news/processors/37823-analysts-claim-amd-will-be-bankrupt-by-2020

 

[soccerballtux]

Relevant:


Fudzilla.com - Home: Analysts claim AMD will be bankrupt by 2020. http://www.fudzilla.com/news/processors/37823-analysts-claim-amd-will-be-bankrupt-by-2020

most likely inflation will devalue their debt and support the bottom line

 

[CHADBOGA]

most likely inflation will devalue their debt and support the bottom line

We are in a low inflation world for the foreseeable future. :whiste:

 

[erunion]

From the Anandtech article on HBM

[AMD is] the first GPU manufacturer to be shipping an HBM solution – in fact AMD expects to be the only vendor to ship an HBM1 solution

MRMT's Law strikes again.

AMD management pursuing a market trend is a very good indicator that this trend is wrong.

Everyone else is waiting for HBM2, as HBM1 doesnt have the required memory capacity. If Fiji is stuck with 4GB vs 980 tis 8GB it could be disastrous.