What is expected to happen to the US dollar under Mccain and Obama

[IHateMyJob2004]

As many here do probably know and most US citizens do not .... the US dollar is in tough shape and it's value is expected to fall further.

So, what are these two candidates proposing in order to strengthen the US dollar?

I know that energy is coupled to the US dollar and that reducing our demand for foreign oil would be a start. And of course, gov't spending is out of hand.

Anyways, are there any good articles on this matter? I can not find anything. I am currently assuming that Obama will be better for the US dollar but I can not support my argument. And facts seem tough to come by that directly discuss this matter. The google failed me! As did the web sites of the two candidates.

 

[StageLeft]

I'd guess obama will be better because mccain is more like bush who's deficit spending has contributed to this, though McCain claims he'll balance the budget in 4 years. Comedic if not for its blatant dishonesty, but I haven't heard that from Obama.

I think it's safe to say neither of them really have much of a plan for anything. To sum up Obama, we see more money given to lower classes via various approches such as expanded public healthcare and in mccain we really don't see much good or bad off current status quo.

The dollar could be strengthened by a big rise in interest rates, for one, and a much more responsible federal budget for another, but neither are on the horizon. Real, actual wealth in the country continues to hemorrhage.

 

[LegendKiller]

Where do you see that it's expected to fall further? It has only fallen from a very high point, too high.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Where do you see that it's expected to fall further? It has only fallen from a very high point, too high.

There is a trade deficit. The gov't is running up the national debt nicely. Bush isn't on TV trying to fix anything, so it is basically going to take a new president.

Skoorb,

I agree with what you say. It is basically what I have in my head but I was wondering there was any more.

Obama has one big thing going for him. Warren Buffet is backing him. It is a shame that Buffett has no interest in a government job, he could atleast stabilize the US dollar. Of course, he would start by doing something with the trade deficit and he would probably increase interest rates.

IF we raise interest rates, people can get hurt i nthe short term. If we don't we are pretty much screwed in the long term. The interest rate spread is great enough now that rates should start going up. There is no excuse for it to not go up.

 

[Legend]

Obama's supposed economic advisor is Paul Volcker, who is well known as the Federal Reserve Chairman that brough inflation under control in the early 1980s.

I think it's more likely that the dollar would strengthen under Obama. The nominal percent of your income may be taxed a bit higher under Obama, but reducing spending in the Middle East and the political effects of 'peace' may make the income that you make worth more despite the % higher taxes.

Expect the dollar to fluctuate a bit more due to the intervention that may be needed soon.

 

[ballmode]

Pee and NNNNnnnn is that wai

 

[XZeroII]

You realize that the value $$$ is artificially set, right? You raise and lower it to accomplish certain economic goals. Right now, raising the price of the dollar would hurt our overall economy and that is why it's low right now.

Also, a lower $ isn't necessarily an overall bad thing. There are many benefits that come with a falling currency. It's like any market, there is a perfect place for it to be and that place constantly changes. Sometimes it's good to have a rising currency and sometimes it's good for it to go down.

 

[BansheeX]

Originally posted by: XZeroII
You realize that the value $$$ is artificially set, right? You raise and lower it to accomplish certain economic goals. Right now, raising the price of the dollar would hurt our overall economy and that is why it's low right now.

Also, a lower $ isn't necessarily an overall bad thing. There are many benefits that come with a falling currency. It's like any market, there is a perfect place for it to be and that place constantly changes. Sometimes it's good to have a rising currency and sometimes it's good for it to go down.

A falling dollar as a result of inflation just means Americans aren't as wealthy and have to borrow more to outbid foreigners for the world's finite supply of products. It's never a GOOD thing for that happen, but it's rectifiable in the sense that it makes American labor cheap and exports profitable. But that's not happening. Right now we are trying to prop up non-exportable sectors like housing and service with continued low interest rates, bailout packages, and stimulus checks - essentially the same inflationary strategy that got us in this mess to begin with. A recession (correction) to crash those artificial sectors and reallocate resources over many years to manufacturing so that we can stop the falling dollar with cheap exports isn't being allowed to happen. That's the mistake, the belief that a recession is somehow avoidable and we can stop it with inflation, like a junkie being given the option of a withdrawal or more shots. Instead of sucking up the short-term pain and going through the withdrawal, we are shooting ourselves up into a hyperinflationary overdose and it's going to kill the patient (dollar).

 

[Moonbeam]

Economic activity is psychological. Happy progressive people are productive and depressed fearful people hunker down and cling to their guns and religion. Obama will brighten the future after the Bush disaster and create new medical economic niches in treating the neurosis of the mentally ill that express themselves when things are going well.

 

[XZeroII]

Originally posted by: BansheeX

Originally posted by: XZeroII
You realize that the value $$$ is artificially set, right? You raise and lower it to accomplish certain economic goals. Right now, raising the price of the dollar would hurt our overall economy and that is why it's low right now.

Also, a lower $ isn't necessarily an overall bad thing. There are many benefits that come with a falling currency. It's like any market, there is a perfect place for it to be and that place constantly changes. Sometimes it's good to have a rising currency and sometimes it's good for it to go down.

A falling dollar as a result of inflation just means Americans aren't as wealthy and have to borrow more to outbid foreigners for the world's finite supply of products. It's never a GOOD thing for that happen, but it's rectifiable in the sense that it makes American labor cheap and exports profitable. But that's not happening. Right now we are trying to prop up non-exportable sectors like housing and service with continued low interest rates, bailout packages, and stimulus checks - essentially the same inflationary strategy that got us in this mess to begin with. A recession (correction) to crash those artificial sectors and reallocate resources over many years to manufacturing so that we can stop the falling dollar with cheap exports isn't being allowed to happen. That's the mistake, the belief that a recession is somehow avoidable and we can stop it with inflation, like a junkie being given the option of a withdrawal or more shots. Instead of sucking up the short-term pain and going through the withdrawal, we are shooting ourselves up into a hyperinflationary overdose and it's going to kill the patient (dollar).

Impressive. :thumbsup:

 

[bamacre]

Considering that neither one of them will balance the budget, I suspect the dollar will keep falling as the debt gets higher. Unless there is some kind of technological breakthrough that boosts the economy, like we saw under Clinton.

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: bamacre
Considering that neither one of them will balance the budget, I suspect the dollar will keep falling as the debt gets higher. Unless there is some kind of technological breakthrough that boosts the economy, like we saw under Clinton.

How do you know? What evidence do you have McCain wont keep his word on balancing? Both candidates have HUGE budget ceiling and tax increases, which is how the budget will be balanced.

As for IHateMyJob2004's comment on the trade deficit...you DO understand it's shrinking quite nicely, and that is one of the effects of a weak dollar, right?

 

[bamacre]

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: bamacre
Considering that neither one of them will balance the budget, I suspect the dollar will keep falling as the debt gets higher. Unless there is some kind of technological breakthrough that boosts the economy, like we saw under Clinton.

How do you know? What evidence do you have McCain wont keep his word on balancing? Both candidates have HUGE budget ceiling and tax increases, which is how the budget will be balanced.

As for IHateMyJob2004's comment on the trade deficit...you DO understand it's shrinking quite nicely, and that is one of the effects of a weak dollar, right?

McCain is calling for higher taxes? 😕

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: bamacre
Considering that neither one of them will balance the budget, I suspect the dollar will keep falling as the debt gets higher. Unless there is some kind of technological breakthrough that boosts the economy, like we saw under Clinton.

How do you know? What evidence do you have McCain wont keep his word on balancing? Both candidates have HUGE budget ceiling and tax increases, which is how the budget will be balanced.

As for IHateMyJob2004's comment on the trade deficit...you DO understand it's shrinking quite nicely, and that is one of the effects of a weak dollar, right?

McCain is calling for higher taxes? 😕

McCains budget WILL raise the spending ceiling...again. That means higher federal income. That comes from taxes. Pretty simple.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: bamacre
Considering that neither one of them will balance the budget, I suspect the dollar will keep falling as the debt gets higher. Unless there is some kind of technological breakthrough that boosts the economy, like we saw under Clinton.

How do you know? What evidence do you have McCain wont keep his word on balancing? Both candidates have HUGE budget ceiling and tax increases, which is how the budget will be balanced.

As for IHateMyJob2004's comment on the trade deficit...you DO understand it's shrinking quite nicely, and that is one of the effects of a weak dollar, right?

McCain is calling for higher taxes? 😕

McCains budget WILL raise the spending ceiling...again. That means higher federal income. That comes from taxes. Pretty simple.

It comes from borrowing more money, similar to the way the Bush administration played it.

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: bamacre
Considering that neither one of them will balance the budget, I suspect the dollar will keep falling as the debt gets higher. Unless there is some kind of technological breakthrough that boosts the economy, like we saw under Clinton.

How do you know? What evidence do you have McCain wont keep his word on balancing? Both candidates have HUGE budget ceiling and tax increases, which is how the budget will be balanced.

As for IHateMyJob2004's comment on the trade deficit...you DO understand it's shrinking quite nicely, and that is one of the effects of a weak dollar, right?

McCain is calling for higher taxes? 😕

McCains budget WILL raise the spending ceiling...again. That means higher federal income. That comes from taxes. Pretty simple.

Correct. But eventually it will get paid. THAT will come from taxes. Unless youre foolish enough to believe spending and ceiling will be lowered to pay for it....
It comes from borrowing more money, similar to the way the Bush administration played it.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: bamacre
Considering that neither one of them will balance the budget, I suspect the dollar will keep falling as the debt gets higher. Unless there is some kind of technological breakthrough that boosts the economy, like we saw under Clinton.

How do you know? What evidence do you have McCain wont keep his word on balancing? Both candidates have HUGE budget ceiling and tax increases, which is how the budget will be balanced.

As for IHateMyJob2004's comment on the trade deficit...you DO understand it's shrinking quite nicely, and that is one of the effects of a weak dollar, right?

McCain is calling for higher taxes? 😕

McCains budget WILL raise the spending ceiling...again. That means higher federal income. That comes from taxes. Pretty simple.

Correct. But eventually it will get paid. THAT will come from taxes. Unless youre foolish enough to believe spending and ceiling will be lowered to pay for it....
It comes from borrowing more money, similar to the way the Bush administration played it.

Sure, current taxes pay the current interest and payments. However, I point out that the debt will commonly be rolled over and refianced with more debt and current account deficits will be satisfied with more borrowing. It's a vicious cycle, one that has only been broken one time since 1969 (the year that it started) and, even then, it was only with the help of SS money that the budget was balanced...and possibly only on paper then. There is no REAL desire to balance the budget....by anyone. Any politician that gives you that there is a desire is simply pandering or giving lip service.

You're still implying that John McCain has called for raising taxes when I've heard nothing of the such. I've heard him state lowering the corporate rate and possibly the capital gains taxes. I've not heard him say anything about lowering my taxes though.

 

[bamacre]

I'm still confused blackangst1.

Unless McCain directly raises income taxes, he's not going to balance any budgets. He's not going to cut any significant spending. And he has stated that he will not raise income taxes, and keep Bush's tax cuts in place. Or has he flipped on this?

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: bamacre
I'm still confused blackangst1.

Unless McCain directly raises income taxes, he's not going to balance any budgets. He's not going to cut any significant spending. And he has stated that he will not raise income taxes, and keep Bush's tax cuts in place. Or has he flipped on this?

No, he's not flipped. He's talked about cutting corporate income taxes as well as cutting capital gains taxes even more. The only spending cuts I've heard are "earmarks" which are just a few billion in a budget of $3,000,000,000,000. The rest will be made up with more borrowing, as usual. He mentioned something about a balanced budget within a few years (4 or 8 I don't remember) but I don't think anyone has given it a serious look as they know it's not going to happen.

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: Engineer


Sure, current taxes pay the current interest and payments. However, I point out that the debt will commonly be rolled over and refianced with more debt and current account deficits will be satisfied with more borrowing. It's a vicious cycle, one that has only been broken one time since 1969 (the year that it started) and, even then, it was only with the help of SS money that the budget was balanced...and possibly only on paper then. There is no REAL desire to balance the budget....by anyone. Any politician that gives you that there is a desire is simply pandering or giving lip service.

You're still implying that John McCain has called for raising taxes when I've heard nothing of the such. I've heard him state lowering the corporate rate and possibly the capital gains taxes. I've not heard him say anything about lowering my taxes though.

I understand your point about rolling over debt.

I disagree about your assessment of McCain. It's not kosher to announce youre going to raise taxes, although the doublespeak speaks for itself. The fact is, both candidates will raise the ceiling per their own budget proposals. Obama will clearly raise taxes...he has said as much. But Im not convinced McCain will deficit spend to get his.

*shrug* I guess we'll see.

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: bamacre
I'm still confused blackangst1.

Unless McCain directly raises income taxes, he's not going to balance any budgets. He's not going to cut any significant spending. And he has stated that he will not raise income taxes, and keep Bush's tax cuts in place. Or has he flipped on this?

see my comment to Engineer.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: Engineer


Sure, current taxes pay the current interest and payments. However, I point out that the debt will commonly be rolled over and refianced with more debt and current account deficits will be satisfied with more borrowing. It's a vicious cycle, one that has only been broken one time since 1969 (the year that it started) and, even then, it was only with the help of SS money that the budget was balanced...and possibly only on paper then. There is no REAL desire to balance the budget....by anyone. Any politician that gives you that there is a desire is simply pandering or giving lip service.

You're still implying that John McCain has called for raising taxes when I've heard nothing of the such. I've heard him state lowering the corporate rate and possibly the capital gains taxes. I've not heard him say anything about lowering my taxes though.

I understand your point about rolling over debt.

I disagree about your assessment of McCain. It's not kosher to announce youre going to raise taxes, although the doublespeak speaks for itself. The fact is, both candidates will raise the ceiling per their own budget proposals. Obama will clearly raise taxes...he has said as much. But Im not convinced McCain will deficit spend to get his.

*shrug* I guess we'll see.

i.e. you think that McCain will indeed raise taxes? If he's cutting capital gains (i.e. people with typically more wealth) and corporate taxes (i.e. owners of which have typically more wealth), who do you think is left to raise taxes on? Unless you think that the economy is going to outgrow our spending and therefore, taxes will increase on their own (at the current or reduced rates) to outpace the spending and spending growth....

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: Engineer

i.e. you think that McCain will indeed raise taxes?

Yes, in fact I do. Either that or deficit spend. We dont know about his ideas to make an assesment either way. But to say he will continue int he Bush tradition is conjecture. We'll see.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: Engineer

i.e. you think that McCain will indeed raise taxes?

Yes, in fact I do. Either that or deficit spend. We dont know about his ideas to make an assesment either way. But to say he will continue int he Bush tradition is conjecture. We'll see.

Like I said, I've seen McCain on TV stating that he would make the Bush tax cut permanent (i.e. cutting taxes for 2010 and beyond), cut the capital gains taxes even more and lower the corporate income tax rates. No mention of raising taxes and not much mention of cutting spending. He did state that SS and Medicare needed to be reformed (I agree on some of that), but of course, he drew $23,000+ on SS last year even while he and his wife racked up on money, lol. Go figure.....

I guess "We'll see." is rather subjective at this point....at least until McCain "becomes" President.

 

[soccerballtux]

Whoa Obama's advisor is Paul Volker???

This makes things very interesting then. The water gets even muddier!