What if GOP has very high turnout and still loses?

[theeedude]

Their strategy is to go for the base, moderates be damned.
What if they turn out their conservative base, and still lose?
Where does it leave their party and conservative movement in general? Will we finally see the parties try to appeal to the moderates and independents instead, and relieve this polarization?

 

[johnnobts]

if the gop has high turnout, they'll win. moderates don't vote midterm elections, the moderate vote is better for presidential elections.

the issue is, if the democrats lose, even though the MSM is touting them as the victors, and even though the dead in missouri appear ready to vote democrat, if they lose in conditions this bad for the republican party, what does this say about the democratic party?

 

[theeedude]

And you can start a thread about that, but this thread is about what happens if the GOP base is not enough to win?

 

[jpeyton]

Diebold to the rescue!

 

[piasabird]

Nothing in this country stays the same all the time.

What will happen is that maybe, if the control of the house and senate changes, then democrats get to decide on the agenda, put their people in charge, and get the best seats on the Committees. However, it is still hard to override a veto. I have seen politics move in Cycles. However, with the internet, it is harder to block the truth. Before the Internet, the medial had a lock on their liberal agenda. However, now people are beginning to learn more about the truth. It is getting harder and harder to tell your lies and have them believed.

I do wonder if there will be a lot of law suits filed one way or another.

 

[Jeff7]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Diebold to the rescue!

Wouldn't it be great if the counted votes turn out to be greater than the number of people who voted? I'd hope that that would surely be enough to get enough people riled up. Though it's sad that this whole thing about the ease of hacking the machines hasn't been a bigger news story than it is.

 

[smashp]

Originally posted by: johnnobts
if the gop has high turnout, they'll win. moderates don't vote midterm elections, the moderate vote is better for presidential elections.

the issue is, if the democrats lose, even though the MSM is touting them as the victors, and even though the dead in missouri appear ready to vote democrat, if they lose in conditions this bad for the republican party, what does this say about the democratic party?

they should hire the Republicans Computer hackers to Write better Smart card Viruses?

 

[Whoozyerdaddy]

Meh... If the republicans have a high turn out they'll win. (Or more accurately, not lose) Their biggest problem right now is republican voters who refuse to turn out because they're pissed off or apathetic. Getting them to hold their noses and vote anyway is the challenge.

People (generally) vote republican for lower taxes and smaller, less intrusive government. To say that the current crop of republicans has failed in that regard would be the understatement of the century.

 

[g paw]

Win or lose the GOP moderates are likely to gain significant power within the Party. If you look at specific races for both federal and state, your seeing a lot of politicians that pander to the right (evangelicals, social conservatives), e.g., Ken Blackwell running for Ohio governor, are likely to lose. They'll figure out that the right might be able to dominate the primaries, they don't win general elections anymore

 

[Balt]

I think the Republicans were on borrowed time with a portion of their base, and ignored the most consistent part. They appealed to the Christian right with moral authority promises that weren't really possible. At the same time they also abandoned the ideals of fiscal conservatism.

My hope is that they will give up trying to please the evangelicals and get back to being a party that at least pretends to believe in things like a balanced budget. Right now they are the party of the Christian right and pork barrel spending.

 

[BDawg]

Getting out the base won't help the Repugs in this election.

 

[mithrandir2001]

If the base does come out and vote en masse for Republican candidates, noses pinched and all, then they are even more stupid and sheepish than currently believed.

To say that there is absolutely no choice but a Republican...wow, how can people see things entirely in black and white?

 

[Lemon law]

The repubs talk an excellent line---but there is no substitute for results--or lack of the same.

No matter how you paint it---Iraq is a giant mess---and no matter how much lip stick you put on a pig.

It still remains a pig with lip stick.---and as much as the repubs have scared the American public
about the dems---results prove the repubs are worse. After six unbroken years---the republican spin
machine is no longer enough.

Object lesson---never forget---your results must match your rhetoric---a fact repubs forgot.

 

[ProfJohn]

The immigration debate could be a turning sign of the conservatives retaking over the party. The Senate Democrats tried to follow Bush and his comprehensive reform plan and the House almost followed until the people in their home districts raised hell, with the help of Rush and Hannity; and next thing you know we have a wall building bill.

There is a chance this could be the turning point away from the Bush non-conservative style and back to true conservatism. Especially if they win on Tuesday. If the Reps keep both the house and the senate they will owe it all to the conservative base that got and voted.

As far as what you say. If GOP turnout is high there is no way they lose because of that. The higher the GOP turn out the more seats they win. If I was a Democrat I would be very worried about turnout. The Republicans are pissed about Kerry and not happy with the idea of Pelosi being in charge. But on the Dem said, other than the anti-war left, I see no signs of a vastly stirred up party. Or am I just missing those signs?

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
The immigration debate could be a turning sign of the conservatives retaking over the party. The Senate Democrats tried to follow Bush and his comprehensive reform plan and the House almost followed until the people in their home districts raised hell, with the help of Rush and Hannity; and next thing you know we have a wall building bill.

There is a chance this could be the turning point away from the Bush non-conservative style and back to true conservatism. Especially if they win on Tuesday. If the Reps keep both the house and the senate they will owe it all to the conservative base that got and voted.

As far as what you say. If GOP turnout is high there is no way they lose because of that. The higher the GOP turn out the more seats they win. If I was a Democrat I would be very worried about turnout. The Republicans are pissed about Kerry and not happy with the idea of Pelosi being in charge. But on the Dem said, other than the anti-war left, I see no signs of a vastly stirred up party. Or am I just missing those signs?

The Republicans pissed about Kerry.....over one lame joke? Are you kidding me? They are ecstatic Kerry ever ran for president. And if you really have to question whether or not people are stirred up in this country (left or right) over what this President and his administration has done you need to get out more. My god you are a complete disgrace to professors all around the world.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: Sudheer Anne
The Republicans pissed about Kerry.....over one lame joke? Are you kidding me? They are ecstatic Kerry ever ran for president. And if you really have to question whether or not people are stirred up in this country (left or right) over what this President and his administration has done you need to get out more. My god you are a complete disgrace to professors all around the world.

I know the right is fired up. What I am wondering about is whether the left is fired up and ready to vote.
Getting the hate Bush crowd to vote is not going to win back the house. Sorry to break that to you.

The most important groups I want to know about are blacks and union workers. Will they vote in large numbers, or sit home? If they sit home it is over for Democratic chances to take both houses.

In the last midterm election the Republicans picked up seats, the only other time the incumbent party picked up seats in an off year election since 1934 was in 1998, and that was the post impeachment election.
They aren?t going to pick up seats on Tuesday, but they certainly have an advantage when it comes to mid year election turn out. A 3.5 million voter advantage in 2002.

BTW: in 1998 even thought the Republicans lost seats, they still got more overall votes for house members. Last time Democrats got more votes in a congressional election was 1996.

 

[JEDIYoda]

Originally posted by: senseamp
Their strategy is to go for the base, moderates be damned.
What if they turn out their conservative base, and still lose?
Where does it leave their party and conservative movement in general? Will we finally see the parties try to appeal to the moderates and independents instead, and relieve this polarization?

can`t deal un what if`s.....meaningless talk...thats the truth

 

[Craig234]

BTW: in 1998 even thought the Republicans lost seats, they still got more overall votes for house members.

Like Gore in 2000. One man one vote - not for us.

 

[Lemon law]

The far right republican base is far too small to win---more and more groups wedged away from the dems are now bugging out of republicanville--and will vote democratic this year---as will many in the working class. GWB is right now the giant handicap the repubs must overcome---when the vast majority is unhappy with the direction this country is going in---any Republican has to pin their hopes on everyone but the far right being apathetic---something unlikely to happen this year.

Maybe the Kerry gaffe is something that is red raw meat for the repub base---an almost lone straw to grasp--for the rest of us---its just another in a long line of scandals and peccadillo's that show how clueless and petty the legislative branch has become---and many yearn for a legislative branch that will rein in a runaway President.

Barring any last minute surprises---the dems are in very good shape---and are now launching an advertising blitzkrieg that should keep the GOP off balance until election. And some of those bucks are targeted a Christians that can't fail to notice a GOP disconnect.---between preaching and practice.

If the dems can holds their senate seats in New Jersey and Maryland----democratic Senate control is clearly a distinct possibility.---and the house may well be a slam dunk.

With the repubs able to look forward post election to all those scandals they postponed---Abramoff---and Scooter Libby. Not to mention more new subpoenas than they can shake a stick at.------I am very bullish on the 2006 elections.---and Iraq will continue to fester for GWB.

 

[Jhhnn]

I'll agree with Lemon Law- the Repub base won't win them many elections- they must have swing voters to turn the corner. And they're not getting them. It's tough to campaign to the middle when you've shown yourself to be a rightwing yesman, time and time again... and when your promises turn up empty just as often.

The whole 9/11 fearmongering routine has lost its effectiveness, for the most part, "Values" ring pretty hollow in the face of ongoing repub scandals and corruption, guns are off the table, and the whole "they don't have a plan!" song and dance wrt Iraq can't get off the ground... Repubs obviously don't have a plan, either, and they're the ones who waltzed us into the morass...

 

[PokerGuy]

I think I pretty much personify the problem the republican party is going to have on Tuesday. I generally lean conservative, and generally vote republican. People like Pelosi, Hillary and Kennedy make me ill.......... but yet I cannot in good conscience go on Tuesday and vote for the republican candidates this time as I have in the past. They have gotten out of touch with the real conservative values and somehow started believing their own rhetoric.

Nope, I will either not vote on Tuesday, or I will have to <gasp> vote for the democrats to get rid of the incumbents (republicans in Ohio where I live currently). I'll have to hold my nose while doing it, but I simply can't stand by and let people like Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz and their ilk keep running the show. Wish Powell would run for president in 08, I'd vote for him in a second.

That's the problem the republicans are going to face. Their hard core base is going to turn out (as they have in the past couple of elections), but the moderate conservatives (like myself and my neighbors) are not going to. I figure the house will go democratic while the senate stays in repub hands -- though barely.

 

[International Machine Consortium]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
The immigration debate could be a turning sign of the conservatives retaking over the party. The Senate Democrats tried to follow Bush and his comprehensive reform plan and the House almost followed until the people in their home districts raised hell, with the help of Rush and Hannity; and next thing you know we have a wall building bill.

There is a chance this could be the turning point away from the Bush non-conservative style and back to true conservatism. Especially if they win on Tuesday. If the Reps keep both the house and the senate they will owe it all to the conservative base that got and voted.

As far as what you say. If GOP turnout is high there is no way they lose because of that. The higher the GOP turn out the more seats they win. If I was a Democrat I would be very worried about turnout. The Republicans are pissed about Kerry and not happy with the idea of Pelosi being in charge. But on the Dem said, other than the anti-war left, I see no signs of a vastly stirred up party. Or am I just missing those signs?

I call bullshit.

We shall see. You had better hope you are right.

 

[totalcommand]

Originally posted by: johnnobts
if the gop has high turnout, they'll win. moderates don't vote midterm elections, the moderate vote is better for presidential elections.

They do vote in midterm elections, and don't count them out. Moderates will decide who controls Congress this election.

Bottom line, this election is a referendum on the Bush Presidency. If conservative turnout is high and they still lose, it means that Bush will be a lame duck for the next 2 years if he's not already.

the issue is, if the democrats lose, even though the MSM is touting them as the victors, and even though the dead in missouri appear ready to vote democrat, if they lose in conditions this bad for the republican party, what does this say about the democratic party?

are you riprorin reincarnated? that's not even the question of this thread. start your own thread if you want an answer.

 

[totalcommand]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Sudheer Anne
The Republicans pissed about Kerry.....over one lame joke? Are you kidding me? They are ecstatic Kerry ever ran for president. And if you really have to question whether or not people are stirred up in this country (left or right) over what this President and his administration has done you need to get out more. My god you are a complete disgrace to professors all around the world.

I know the right is fired up. What I am wondering about is whether the left is fired up and ready to vote.
Getting the hate Bush crowd to vote is not going to win back the house. Sorry to break that to you.

The evangelical scandal going on right now is going to suppress the Republican base. It's not the hate Bush crowd that will win back the house, its the "change the course in Iraq" crowd that's going to do it.

The most important groups I want to know about are blacks and union workers. Will they vote in large numbers, or sit home? If they sit home it is over for Democratic chances to take both houses.

In the last midterm election the Republicans picked up seats, the only other time the incumbent party picked up seats in an off year election since 1934 was in 1998, and that was the post impeachment election.
They aren?t going to pick up seats on Tuesday, but they certainly have an advantage when it comes to mid year election turn out. A 3.5 million voter advantage in 2002.

Since 2002 the Democratic Party has worked overtime to catch up in GOTV. The Republican advantage in this area is going to be heavily undercut.

BTW: in 1998 even thought the Republicans lost seats, they still got more overall votes for house members. Last time Democrats got more votes in a congressional election was 1996.

Who gives a crap about 2002 and 1998 anyways? This is 2006. There are different issues at hand.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: International Machine Consortium

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
The immigration debate could be a turning sign of the conservatives retaking over the party. The Senate Democrats tried to follow Bush and his comprehensive reform plan and the House almost followed until the people in their home districts raised hell, with the help of Rush and Hannity; and next thing you know we have a wall building bill.

There is a chance this could be the turning point away from the Bush non-conservative style and back to true conservatism. Especially if they win on Tuesday. If the Reps keep both the house and the senate they will owe it all to the conservative base that got and voted.

As far as what you say. If GOP turnout is high there is no way they lose because of that. The higher the GOP turn out the more seats they win. If I was a Democrat I would be very worried about turnout. The Republicans are pissed about Kerry and not happy with the idea of Pelosi being in charge. But on the Dem said, other than the anti-war left, I see no signs of a vastly stirred up party. Or am I just missing those signs?

I call bullshit.

We shall see. You had better hope you are right.

Which part of my post is BS?

One very good political commentary already points out that since the Democrats do not have ONE clear alternative to Iraq that even if they win it does not mean they have a mandate.
What they have is several different ideas on what to do in Iraq from the immediate withdrawal to staying for another 6 months to a year etc. Since the Democrats did not get out there as group and say "If you vote for us we will do X" then they can not rightfully claim a mandate.
This means we are unlikely to see much change at all, especially in Iraq policy. Unless the Democrats get a working majority, which means they need to pick up 20-25 seats. Otherwise they will be fighting an up hill battle for everything they try and do.