What has a greater odd?

[Zeze]

Quietly stop posting.

 

[xBiffx]

WTF? Chance and odds are same thing. What are you smoking?

And your usage of Gambler's Fallacy is 100% wrong. Stop it.

No they aren't. Why don't you go and look up probability (chance) and odds and see why.

 

[SSSnail]

Biff, I would be more inclined to agree with you if you had said "if you're lucky, you'd win whether you buy one ticket, or a thousand".

 

[Zeze]

No they aren't. Why don't you go and look up probability (chance) and odds and see why.

Wow.

Since you're so well educated on this delusion. Tell me this:

6 sided dice, you get to pick 1
1. What are the odds of winning?
2. What is the chance of winning?

1 million sided dice, you get to pick 20
1. What are the odds of winning?
2. What is the chance of winning?

 

[xBiffx]

:biggrin:

Assumption - The lottery numbers are only drawn once

Odds of Winning with 1 ticket = 1 in 176 million
Odds of Winning with 1000 tickets = 1000 in 176 million

Again, you don't understand Gambler's Fallacy.

No, no, no. You can't win with 1000 ticket if the numbers are all different. You only can win with 1. You have 999 losing tickets (at best) so your odds of winning are still 1 in 176 million.

 

[Zeze]

Chance yes, of course, odds no. The odds of winning are still 1 in 175,711,536. Same odds if you had bought a single ticket.

Since I bought 175,711,525 tickets out of possible 175,711,526 combinations:

My odds of winning is:
175,711,535 in 175,711,536

My chance of winning is: (just different expression, just divide above two numbers)
0.9999999373973943%.

This in 1:x odds is presented by:
1:1.0000000626026057 (meaning you're pretty much going to win, same as above chance).
(1 - .9999999373973943) + 1


Odds and chance = SAME THING, DIFFERENT EXPRESSION.

How can you be this dense?

Let's recap since you've proven yourself to be quite slow.
(a) 0.9999999373973943%
(b) 175,711,535 in 175,711,536
(c) 1:1.0000000626026057
(d) 1 in 1.0000000626026057

1. ABCD, they're ALL SAME THING. Odds and chance are SAME TERMS referring to SAME THING, different expressions

2. This has NOTHING to do with Gambler's Fallacy which describes falsely banking on SUBSEQUENT of draws of same outcome will increase the chance/odds of 'due' outcome. Lottery is drawn ONCE and your number of tickets effectively increase that chance and apply to that ONE drawing.

So much fail, and I SUCK with math.

 

[Capt Caveman]

No they aren't. Why don't you go and look up probability (chance) and odds and see why.

Again, you have no clue how to apply Gambler's Fallacy. It does not apply to the original post that commented on.

The Gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy (because its most famous example happened in a Monte Carlo Casino in 1913),[1][2] and also referred to as the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely.

The bolded does not apply if an individual purchases 1000 lottery tickets(different combinations) for a single lottery drawing.

 

[zinfamous]

Your odds of winning is 175,711,535 in 175,711,536 since I bought 175,711,525 tickets. WTF is wrong with you?

And my chance of winning (just different expression) is 0.9999999373973943%.

Odds and chance = SAME THING.

How can you be this dense?

to be fair, you're talking about tickets purchased in terms of tickets existing.

It is entirely probable that in 175,711,535 existing tickets, not one of them is a winning ticket.


However--lotto such that it is, you probably have a handful of tickets with 3 and maybe 4 winning numbers, so you could make some decent scratch...Though shame you spent $175,711k, only to lose $100m overall.

 

[Capt Caveman]

No, no, no. You can't win with 1000 ticket if the numbers are all different. You only can win with 1. You have 999 losing tickets (at best) so your odds of winning are still 1 in 176 million.

/facepalm

You either are retarded, trolling or a retarded troll.

 

[xBiffx]

Wow.

Since you're so well educated on this delusion. Tell me this:

6 sided dice, you get to pick 1
1. What are the odds of winning? 1 to 5 (1:5)
2. What is the chance of winning? 16.7%

1 million sided dice, you get to pick 20
1. What are the odds of winning? 1 to 999,999
2. What is the chance of winning? 0.002%

Bold answers above.

 

[busydude]

The odds of getting a 2 is 1 in 6, but the odds of winning the roll is 5 in 6.

I done goofed.

The odds of getting a 2 is 1 in 5.

 

[busydude]

Bold answers above.

You are right.

Odds = Probability of success: Probability of failure. or p/1-p

The odds of getting a two is 1/6: (1-1/6) = 1/6:5/6 = 1: 5

 

[xBiffx]

/facepalm

You either are retarded, trolling or a retarded troll.

Really how did buying 999 extra tickets make that winning ticket any more likely to win?

 

[TallBill]

Posting in down syndrome thread

 

[Capt Caveman]

Bold answers above.

Really how did buying 999 extra tickets make that winning ticket any more likely to win?

Wow. Wow. And more Wow.

 

[Cerpin Taxt]

No, no, no. You can't win with 1000 ticket if the numbers are all different. You only can win with 1. You have 999 losing tickets (at best) so your odds of winning are still 1 in 176 million.

The reason people think conservatives are stupid: They *are* stupid.

The odds of a particular ticket winning is 1 in 176 million.

MY odds of winning (that is, holding a winning ticket) is 1000 in 176 million if I'm holding 1000 unique tickets.

None of this has anything to do with the Gambler's Fallacy, however. That's a secondary failure within your primary failure.

 

[TuxDave]

Doesn't change your odds of winning. Gamblers fallacy.

Gambler's Fallacy does not apply here. The most common use of it goes along the lines of "I lost 10 times in a row, therefore the chance of winning on the next game is higher". Unfortunately for independent events that's not true.

However the probability of winning on a specific ticket in the same drawing are not independent events. So if your first ticket is a losing ticket, the probability that your second ticket is a winning one has improved (assuming you didn't buy the same number twice). And this goes on until you're out of tickets. 🙂

EDIT: This thread made me laugh, I needed one.

 

[Dr. Zaus]

Which is exactly what you are doing here. "I can't win on one ticket, but I perhaps could win with 10 tickets." Nope, sorry, you still only won with the one ticket so the other 9 were pointless. Each ticket consists of a single wager. Nine more wagers doesn't make all 10 anymore likely to win.

Yes it does, if you make all of them the same numbers.

 

[Mr. Pedantic]

However the probability of winning on a specific ticket in the same drawing are not independent events. So if your first ticket is a losing ticket, the probability that your second ticket is a winning one has improved (assuming you didn't buy the same number twice). And this goes on until you're out of tickets. 🙂

The result for all tickets is determined at the same time.

 

[GrumpyMan]

Doesn't everything change when people can pick their own numbers, like in the lottery, not all are quick picks. So it's possible but not probable that 176,000,000 people pick the exact same numbers so no one wins if they are the wrong ones. Yeah I know, I'm not making sense either...

 

[xBiffx]

Doesn't everything change when people can pick their own numbers, like in the lottery, not all are quick picks. So it's possible but not probable that 176,000,000 people pick the exact same numbers no one wins either. Yeah I know, I'm not making sense either...

Yes, and they are counting on this. If 176,000,000 people went and picked unique numbers for every ticket there would be winner. But with so many people picking randomly you are unlikely to see every unique combination picked.

 

[GrumpyMan]

So assuming what I said is correct then is it guaranteed by the lottery commission that if I buy 176,000,000 quick pick tickets, that they will all be unique combinations? Or can they replicate them?

 

[xBiffx]

So assuming what I said is correct then is it guaranteed by the lottery commission that if I buy 176,000,000 quick pick tickets, that they will all be unique combinations? Or can they replicate them?

I don't think the quick picks are unique. If they were then all it would take is 176,000,000 quick pickers for a winner every time.

 

[Joseph F]

Fucking awesome ownage ITT!
Keep it up, I'm having a jolly old time reading it all.

 

[GrumpyMan]

Well that doesn't seem fair that they could sell the same series of numbers on different machines to different people, even though of course no one would know the exact series until the drawing. Couldn't they also sell the same sequence of numbers in quick picks across several states thus increasing their odds of no one being a winner?