What happens when oil starts to get scarce?

[Mallow]

I'd say we have between 50-80 years

 

[Fencer128]

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
The only logical thing to do is invade Canada, free the Canadians from their oppressive regieme, allow Quebec to become France II, & free the oil they've been holding back

There's bio-diesel, hydrogen, solar, wind... Lots of untapped potential. Granted, there are significant infrastructure changes that'l need to be made.

The common fallacy is that we'll run out of oil, we'll never run out of oil, it'll just become very expensive, something about that supply/demand curve fits here. Don't know quite where.

I agree. The date I'm talking about is when oil stops being plentiful and pumps have to work harder to keep their average up. But since a lot depends on the oil prices - this alone could have huge economic and social implications.

Cheers,

Andy

 

[Fencer128]

Originally posted by: desy
That particular stat is regarding the easy to get oil.
There is still lots of oil it will just be increasingly difficult to get, harder to get means $$$ they can pump oil out of the Mideast for about $4 a barrell so the rest is profit.
Here in Canada is cost about $18 a barrel so we pump it cause we make money on it when oil was 12$ a barrell they shut all the wells down.
There is the same amount of oil in the Tar Sands of Alberta as there is in Saudi Arabia but it is very $$$ to get out.
It just means the days of cheap oil energy is coming to an end, not oil itself.

I know. That is why I'm talking about when it stops being plentiful (and therefore starts getting more expensive) rather than when it runs out.

Cheers,

Andy

 

[Jmman]

Conservative estimates are that we have over 2 trillion barrels of oil left on this planet. If you think that means we are going to run out by 2010, all I have to say is "STEP AWAY FROM THE BONG".......

 

[Fencer128]

Originally posted by: Mallow
I'd say we have between 50-80 years

Where did you get those numbers from?

Thanks,

Andy

 

[Fencer128]

Originally posted by: Jmman
Conservative estimates are that we have over 2 trillion barrels of oil left on this planet. If you think that means we are going to run out by 2010, all I have to say is "STEP AWAY FROM THE BONG".......

If you read the initial post - I talk about when oil stops being plentiful - rather than when it is exhausted. I'm going off Shell's numbers, can you not agree that they *may* have some authority on this? I am posting a range of dates - that does not mean I believe them all. Currently I'm inclined to believe the shell estimate.

Where do you get your numbers from?

Andy

 

[amnesiac]

My geology prof a few years ago said that most estimates put our current reserves at about a 60 year life span.

There's another 60-100 years trapped in oil shales that are just REALLY difficult to extract, and once we figure out how to harvest methane crystals from the deep sea, we'll be set for God knows how many more years.

 

[Fencer128]

Originally posted by: amnesiac 2.0
My geology prof a few years ago said that most estimates put our current reserves at about a 60 year life span.

There's another 60-100 years trapped in oil shales that are just REALLY difficult to extract, and once we figure out how to harvest methane crystals from the deep sea, we'll be set for God knows how many more years.

This is true - but the upsurge in oil prices resulting from needing to go to such high cost methods of extraction would have just as great, if not greater consequences than if oil merely ran out. That is the real problem that must be dealt with in the next decade or two.

Cheers,

Andy

 

[Ynog]

Keep in mind they thought we were running out of oil in the 70s.

One of the things i think people should take the predictions with grain of a salt when listening to
the people selling oil. They would love to pump less oil every year because then they can sell it
for more. They will try to convince you that we should pump less oil to make it last longer. Its
simply supply and demand. The less they pump the more the oil they have it worth. We will
definately run out of oil eventually, and we should be working on alternative fuel technologies
but there is no reason to worry about the quantity of oil we have left. Not just yet atleast.

Oh if want to know when it does eventually gets scare, and there is no alternatvie fuel yet,

the price will skyrocket so that no one will be driving cars anymore cause it will cost too
much.

 

[Fencer128]

Originally posted by: Ynog
Keep in mind they thought we were running out of oil in the 70s.

One of the things i think people should take the predictions with grain of a salt when listening to
the people selling oil. They would love to pump less oil every year because then they can sell it
for more. They will try to convince you that we should pump less oil to make it last longer. Its
simply supply and demand. The less they pump the more the oil they have it worth. We will
definately run out of oil eventually, and we should be working on alternative fuel technologies
but there is no reason to worry about the quantity of oil we have left. Not just yet atleast.

I would agree with your logic if it weren't for the fact that oil companies tend to be at the longer end of oil supply predictions. If they were holding back - why do so many think that the situation is actually much worse?

Cheers,

Andy

 

[Pliablemoose]

Traditionally we don't change anything unless our back is against the wall, we can see a 25% increase in efficiency by adopting hybrid power-trains, which will happen in the next 10 years. Once people move away from the strictly petroleum based internal combustion engines, the rest will happen much more quickly.

The economics involved aren't pretty, less & less people will have the money to travel as much & as frequently as we are accustomed to.

We (in the US) will have to adopt a more mass transit friendly stance, and get off our fat asses & walk once in a while.

I think the electric bicycle is going to be big, as well as electric scooters...

Another big area we need to tighten our belts on is housing, we waste enormous sums on heating & cooling our homes/workplaces. The private sector businesses that should be making an all out effort to develop & produce more energy efficient HVAC systems should be ashamed...

My favorite green guote is that we're building energy efficient castles (referring to private homes that are agressively energy efficient) versus something that could be applied to the common home...

My brother in law has a $300K home that's been on "Solar Energy Today"-- My traditional home is actually more energy efficient from the mods I've made & will be more so as I have time & $ to make them, but my home looks like a traditional home, refining existing technology.

 

[Toasthead]

greasecar

Greasecars RULE!

 

[desy]

They didn't have the same technology or information in the 70's that we do now.
There are very few peices of ground that weren't seismographed in the 80's, they know whats out there which is why using current consumption rates they say 50-100 years .
The pinnacle of the easy to get stuff is supposed to be right now.
The fade away will be gradual , market driven, and 'hopefully' new technology to replace, but read an article called 'the tragedy of the commons' it doesn't put a lot of faith in mans abilitity to 'technically fix everything' , it was written in the 70's

 

[Pliablemoose]

Originally posted by: desy
They didn't have the same technology or information in the 70's that we do now.
There are very few peices of ground that weren't seismographed in the 80's, they know whats out there which is why using current consumption rates they say 50-100 years .
The pinnacle of the easy to get stuff is supposed to be right now.
The fade away will be gradual , market driven, and 'hopefully' new technology to replace, but read an article called 'the tragedy of the commons' it doesn't put a lot of faith in mans abilitity to 'technically fix everything' , it was written in the 70's

<---used to work on a seismograph crew in the 70's & 80's...

 

[Fencer128]

Originally posted by: desy
They didn't have the same technology or information in the 70's that we do now.
There are very few peices of ground that weren't seismographed in the 80's, they know whats out there which is why using current consumption rates they say 50-100 years .
The pinnacle of the easy to get stuff is supposed to be right now.
The fade away will be gradual , market driven, and 'hopefully' new technology to replace, but read an article called 'the tragedy of the commons' it doesn't put a lot of faith in mans abilitity to 'technically fix everything' , it was written in the 70's

That sounds fairly reasonable - although (I'm no expert on Hybrid tech) but I don't see renewables making up that gap anytime soon without much, much more of a "push" (especially solar). I'm also not sure how "gradual" it will all be. No way to tell that yet I guess!

Cheers,

Andy

 

[Fencer128]

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Traditionally we don't change anything unless our back is against the wall, we can see a 25% increase in efficiency by adopting hybrid power-trains, which will happen in the next 10 years. Once people move away from the strictly petroleum based internal combustion engines, the rest will happen much more quickly.

The economics involved aren't pretty, less & less people will have the money to travel as much & as frequently as we are accustomed to.

We (in the US) will have to adopt a more mass transit friendly stance, and get off our fat asses & walk once in a while.

I think the electric bicycle is going to be big, as well as electric scooters...

Another big area we need to tighten our belts on is housing, we waste enormous sums on heating & cooling our homes/workplaces. The private sector businesses that should be making an all out effort to develop & produce more energy efficient HVAC systems should be ashamed...

My favorite green guote is that we're building energy efficient castles (referring to private homes that are agressively energy efficient) versus something that could be applied to the common home...

My brother in law has a $300K home that's been on "Solar Energy Today"-- My traditional home is actually more energy efficient from the mods I've made & will be more so as I have time & $ to make them, but my home looks like a traditional home, refining existing technology.

I like the way you live. I hope more people take that stance - it seems the most efficient and least problomatic way forward.

Cheers,

Andy

 

[BooGiMaN]

havent they been saying this for like the past 20-30 years?

 

[desy]

<---used to work on a seismograph crew in the 70's & 80's

Hey me too! Only for one summer in 83 though round the Midale feilds here in Sask. My one buddy even did it even in Saudi Arabia lived in a tent for months!
I just built a new house. Put in the highest R rated windows and highest effecient gas furnace I could buy. But I still didn't build to R2000 standards.
The windows are too big! why build R40 walls when you have R5 windows .
Did you look into ceramic paints at all ?
Seems like a good idea
I don't know enough if I should be sceptical or not

 

[Fencer128]

Originally posted by: BooGiMaN
havent they been saying this for like the past 20-30 years?

I'm just going off Shell's estimates. Remember - I'm talking about when the oil were getting now stops being plentiful (ie prices go up and don't come down) - not completely exhausted.

Cheers,

Andy

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Oil is a finite resource. So it is going to run out. 2010? 2020? Not the point. Oil will rule until other options are cost effective. Unfortunately other options will not be ready because they are not cost effective.

 

[dquan97]

want me to draw a supply and demand curve reflecting this scenario?

 

[Fencer128]

Originally posted by: Hayabusarider
Oil is a finite resource. So it is going to run out. 2010? 2020? Not the point. Oil will rule until other options are cost effective. Unfortunately other options will not be ready because they are not cost effective.

Not run out - start becoming more and more expensive at those times.

Cheers,

Andy

 

[Fencer128]

Originally posted by: dquan97
want me to draw a supply and demand curve reflecting this scenario?

No, I think I can guess what that would look like!

What I wonder is how life will change. Will people become more energy concious? Will countries really go to war over oil? What are the implications?

Cheers,

Andy

 

[Jmman]

Most models I have seen show oil prices increasing only at the rate on inflation for at least the next 30 years, with the US Geological suvey mean average of world oil reserves at 3 trillion barrels. Interesting study here.......Study



If you will check out the graph you will notice that the estimates for world oil reserves have doubled in the last 20 years. I am not going to sell my car just yet.....

 

[Pliablemoose]

Originally posted by: desy
<---used to work on a seismograph crew in the 70's & 80's

Hey me too! Only for one summer in 83 though round the Midale feilds here in Sask. My one buddy even did it even in Saudi Arabia lived in a tent for months!
I just built a new house. Put in the highest R rated windows and highest effecient gas furnace I could buy. But I still didn't build to R2000 standards.
The windows are too big! why build R40 walls when you have R5 windows .
Did you look into ceramic paints at all ?
Seems like a good idea
I don't know enough if I should be sceptical or not

Looks a little like a scam.

I'm really impressed with what Canada's done along the lines of energy efficient houses.

I just bought an existing house & as the appliances etc wear out am replacing them with energy efficient ones. I imagine I'll have it finished about the time my wife convinces me to build one.

Biggest problem I have is convincing her to allow me to build a house with white siding & a white metal roof instead of the obligatory backward brick veneer/thermal mass on the outside, asphalt shingle solar ray catcher ass-backwards Texas home.

Problem in Texas is cooling costs, opposite of heating expenses up North.

The ceramic paint looks like a scam, although I've seen some really old steel sided houses with ceramic paint baked o the panels (like a steel roof or washing machine) that were pretty neat.

We got stoned every day in the field, surprised I have any brain cells left I was a juggie & rolled cable, drove once in a while... We flew to the site a couple of different states, we were so remote... I've seen herds of antelope that were bigger than I ever though could still exist...