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What happens when oil starts to get scarce?

F

Fencer128

Platinum Member
Hi,

I was wondering what people's views are as to what will happen when oil starts to get scarce around .... well anywhere between 2010 (lowest estimate I've seen) and 2025 (offical shell opinion) depending who you believe?

After 2025 renewable sources start to make an important contribution, because innovation continues to lower their costs while depleting reserves lead to higher prices for oil and gas.
Click to expand...

How can the world get on with limited oil and what do you think we can do between then and now? (are we doing enough?)

EDIT: Just for clarification "starts to get scarce" means "you have to pump harder to get the same average amount of oil each time". - It does not mean "exhausted".

Cheers,

Andy
 
Link to the official Shell opinion? I have heard numerous times that oil's scarcity was far overrated.
 
Originally posted by: Millennium
Link to the official Shell opinion? I have heard numerous times that oil's scarcity was far overrated.
Click to expand...
I'd wager even the most optimistic estimates will see the end within our collective lifetimes. Hopefully we'll have stopped dicking around and developed some practical technology for transportation by then.

 
Originally posted by: Millennium
Link to the official Shell opinion? I have heard numerous times that oil's scarcity was far overrated.
Click to expand...

I'm looking it up - just been watching a documentary where there interviewing a shell public relations person - so I'm pretty sure its correct - but you are correct to ask for a link, be right back....

Andy
 
Here is the link

After 2025 renewable sources start to make an important contribution, because innovation continues to lower their costs while depleting reserves lead to higher prices for oil and gas.
Click to expand...

I will look for a more concrete statement for you all.

Cheers,

Andy
 
Originally posted by: Fausto1
Originally posted by: Millennium
Link to the official Shell opinion? I have heard numerous times that oil's scarcity was far overrated.
Click to expand...
I'd wager even the most optimistic estimates will see the end within our collective lifetimes. Hopefully we'll have stopped dicking around and developed some practical technology for transportation by then.
Click to expand...

I agree we need a new type of technology, but so far Joe Six Pack doesn't realize this. You can lead Joe to a war, but not to a hydrogen car.
 
Solar powered vehicles, alternative energy increase, wind powered, tide powered and nuclear power plants will be more common place.
 
Originally posted by: Nitemare
Solar powered vehicles, alternative energy increase, wind powered, tide powered and nuclear power plants will be more common place.
Click to expand...

At the rate solar is becoming more efficient - will it be ready by 2025. I'm not sure it will.

Cheers,

Andy
 
Originally posted by: Fencer128
Here is the link

After 2025 renewable sources start to make an important contribution, because innovation continues to lower their costs while depleting reserves lead to higher prices for oil and gas.
Click to expand...

I will look for a more concrete statement for you all.

Cheers,

Andy
Click to expand...

ok... but where'd you get the 2010 from? 😛

the world is not running out of oil in 7 years. lol

 
That is laughable. By most estimates we could continue at todays production levels for at least the next 50 years. Here is an article that talks about a scientist in 1874, yes 1874, who predicted that oil would run out shortly! LOL!! link
 
ok... but where'd you get the 2010 from? 😛

the world is not running out of oil in 7 years. lol
Click to expand...

I think it may be far fetched too (though I'm no expert on oil resources). I'm getting most of this info from a documentary I'm watching about the future of oil. That's how I knew about shell's position as I've just seen an interview with their PR person.

I have to say that shell have the longest estimate of quite a few different sources - including ex-shell employees. Other independant research (I'm not sure HOW independant as that was the only info I got) says 2020 (university research group), 2017 (university research group), 2013 (ex shell employee) and 2010 ("independant" research(. Make what you will of all the numbers.

Cheers,

Andy
 
Originally posted by: Jmman
That is laughable. By most estimates we could continue at todays production levels for at least the next 50 years. Here is an article that talks about a scientist in 1874, yes 1874, who predicted that oil would run out shortly! LOL!! link
Click to expand...

Well - the science of this has moved on somewhat since 1874 😉

I'm only going by shell's numbers - hopefully they know what they're talking about. Worth pointing out also that we won't progress at todays levels - the demand will increase with time, so this shortens the lifespan of available oil. Note I said 2025 is when oil starts to become scarce (ie some pumps do not on average produce as much as they did) - not completely exhausted.

Andy
 
Typical liberal drivel. The sky is falling, the sky is falling, let's all live in grass hut........
rolleye.gif
 
when we actually do start to run out (i really have trouble believing it will be in my lifetime, we have lots of oil that the tree huggers won't let us get to yet [Alaska]) , then the market will prompt the technology to be refined to consumer pricing

you really think those giant oil company's want to cease to exist? they will adapt to selling whatever the replacement turns out to be
 
Originally posted by: Jmman
Typical liberal drivel. The sky is falling, the sky is falling, let's all live in grass hut........
rolleye.gif
Click to expand...

When you have a valid point to make do it. Until you can say something constructive, please be quiet.

Andy
 
Originally posted by: Jmman
Typical liberal drivel. The sky is falling, the sky is falling, let's all live in grass hut........
rolleye.gif
Click to expand...
Don't be such an ass. Fencer asked a question about what happens when/if it runs out. We're calmly discussing the possibilities and theories on how much is left and transportation options in the post-petroleum age. The only drivel contributed thus far seems to be your own.

 
The only logical thing to do is invade Canada, free the Canadians from their oppressive regieme, allow Quebec to become France II, & free the oil they've been holding back😀

There's bio-diesel, hydrogen, solar, wind... Lots of untapped potential. Granted, there are significant infrastructure changes that'l need to be made.

The common fallacy is that we'll run out of oil, we'll never run out of oil, it'll just become very expensive, something about that supply/demand curve fits here. Don't know quite where.
 
That particular stat is regarding the easy to get oil.
There is still lots of oil it will just be increasingly difficult to get, harder to get means $$$ they can pump oil out of the Mideast for about $4 a barrell so the rest is profit.
Here in Canada is cost about $18 a barrel so we pump it cause we make money on it when oil was 12$ a barrell they shut all the wells down.
There is the same amount of oil in the Tar Sands of Alberta as there is in Saudi Arabia but it is very $$$ to get out.
It just means the days of cheap oil energy is coming to an end, not oil itself.
 
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