There is a god, his name is Andrew Cuomo, and he is about to bless a slingshot.
Seriously though that is what will be the "great equalizer" in the long-term picture here...Intel can't help but fall victim, eventually, to anti-trust actions.
I don't say that based on assumptions of guilt on allegations of past actions but rather as a forward-looking synopsis of simple consequences of the math of the economics involved in the coming decade.
They've reached that kind of critical mass now where there is no stopping the ensuing chain reaction, it is simply a matter of time before the government agencies chartered with anti-trust issues find themselves with a political sentiment pendulum swung far enough in the "bust up big businesses" direction the likes of which AT&T and RCA found themselves.
The barrier to entry for advanced process tech has sealed Intel's fate by simple virtue of having the revenue necessary to procure continually advanced technology nodes on a node cadence that outstrips the competition and it is simply a matter of time before they get disassembled for sheer fact their competition will no longer be able to compete.
It's not a matter of beating the competition so much as the competition bowing out of the race, either way you end being the defacto monopoly in effect and eventually politics will decide you need disassembling to re-open the market space (look at deregulation, the stated motivations for it when it happens, and how it happens in ebbs and cycles based on political sentiment, the analog will happen to Intel IMO).
So I can't help but feel sorry for Intel because they could be the most saintly noble business out there who has been unfairly the victim of much false accusations and it won't change the fact they are a dead man walking when you iterate thru the next 10yrs and assess the ramifications of node cadence on product portfolio and R&D expenses and realize they are assured a monopoly position whether they want it or not and eventually government will be forced to address that.
So IMO AMD merely has to survive the duration and eventually government agencies will fight there fight for them and dismantle Intel limb by limb.
As for Bulldozer...I admit there is no good reason to assume it has any chance of besting Intel's architecture of the year whenever BD debuts. Consider that the K8 bested P4 prescot not so much because K8 was two steps ahead of K7 but because the P4 prescot was a step back from the P4 northwood...so unless Intel takes another step-back ala P4 prescot style we simply have no justification to put the odds in AMD's favor once we factor in the resource delta that exists between the two.
Seriously though that is what will be the "great equalizer" in the long-term picture here...Intel can't help but fall victim, eventually, to anti-trust actions.
I don't say that based on assumptions of guilt on allegations of past actions but rather as a forward-looking synopsis of simple consequences of the math of the economics involved in the coming decade.
They've reached that kind of critical mass now where there is no stopping the ensuing chain reaction, it is simply a matter of time before the government agencies chartered with anti-trust issues find themselves with a political sentiment pendulum swung far enough in the "bust up big businesses" direction the likes of which AT&T and RCA found themselves.
The barrier to entry for advanced process tech has sealed Intel's fate by simple virtue of having the revenue necessary to procure continually advanced technology nodes on a node cadence that outstrips the competition and it is simply a matter of time before they get disassembled for sheer fact their competition will no longer be able to compete.
It's not a matter of beating the competition so much as the competition bowing out of the race, either way you end being the defacto monopoly in effect and eventually politics will decide you need disassembling to re-open the market space (look at deregulation, the stated motivations for it when it happens, and how it happens in ebbs and cycles based on political sentiment, the analog will happen to Intel IMO).
So I can't help but feel sorry for Intel because they could be the most saintly noble business out there who has been unfairly the victim of much false accusations and it won't change the fact they are a dead man walking when you iterate thru the next 10yrs and assess the ramifications of node cadence on product portfolio and R&D expenses and realize they are assured a monopoly position whether they want it or not and eventually government will be forced to address that.
So IMO AMD merely has to survive the duration and eventually government agencies will fight there fight for them and dismantle Intel limb by limb.
As for Bulldozer...I admit there is no good reason to assume it has any chance of besting Intel's architecture of the year whenever BD debuts. Consider that the K8 bested P4 prescot not so much because K8 was two steps ahead of K7 but because the P4 prescot was a step back from the P4 northwood...so unless Intel takes another step-back ala P4 prescot style we simply have no justification to put the odds in AMD's favor once we factor in the resource delta that exists between the two.