Havok has bigger marketshare than PhysX and because Havok is own by Intel you can bet it will never use Cuda for GPU accleration. Yet ATI has good reltaionship with Havok so they'll be using either OpenCL or DirectCompute. Whichever will better benefit Intel's IGPs and the other "Larrabee" projects that are still active.
Larrabee will benefit more from x86/Larrabee code than OpenCL or DirectCompute.
So it's going to be the same story as PhysX, just with Larrabee instead of Cuda.
Adobe will be moving over to OpenCL by CS6 so that will be a blow to Cuda.
Moving over, or adding support while keeping Cuda in place?
If I would hazard a guess, I would say that OpenCL would give less performance on nVidia GPUs than what they are currently getting.
Adobe's customers won't accept a performance hit from what they're currently getting with CS5, so I think the logical plan of action for Adobe is to keep Cuda support in place. This would make OpenCL a second-class citizen.
Microsoft is also using thier own Direct2Draw API for GPU hardware accelration and not Cuda.
Direct2Draw? I think you mean Direct2D, which is for graphics, not GPGPU, and as such is no competitor to Cuda.
DirectCompute is a competitor to Cuda (and OpenCL). However, MS structured their GPGPU-accelerated functionality so that every vendor is free to implement it with whatever API they prefer (just like how video acceleration has always worked in Windows).