What do you think will be the outcome of the 2020 presidential election?

[[DHT]Osiris]

It's really weird the Dem candidates have been leading Drumpf in every poll I've seen. Makes no sense in light of how the economy is doing, the impeachment bid failing, and his approval rating rising. I wonder if there is just some trump fatigue out there in the electorate, like people don't want to put up with the drama for 4 more years.

Maybe because the media's attempts to paint Trump in a positive light, with tons of adoring fans, is completely false? Maybe because an overwhelming majority of Americans actually fucking hate him and his ridiculousness, and can't wait to vote him out?

 

[SteveGrabowski]

The main thing I see right now is that Bernie won't win over the disaffected Republicans and Independents. I can see them swallowing their pride to vote for a Democrat. Voting for a self proclaimed Democratic Socialist..... Not so much.

Meh all the disaffected Republicans pretended they wouldn't vote Trump all in the leadup to November 2016 and then went home and voted for him anyways. You're not getting any Republican voters crossing over, especially when Ginsburg probably doesn't have a lot of time left on the Supreme Court. Trying to court Republican voters in 2020 will be just as big a loser as trying to court them was in 2016 for Democrats. The Republican voters who "don't like Trump" "don't like" him for stupid things, like tweeting too much. So called disaffected Republican voters are going to pick a young left-leaning replacement for Ginsburg over another Kavanaugh because they don't like Trump tweeting?

 

[Vic]

Where's that number coming from?

His ass.

 

[JohnShadows]

Maybe because the media's attempts to paint Trump in a positive light, with tons of adoring fans, is completely false? Maybe because an overwhelming majority of Americans actually fucking hate him and his ridiculousness, and can't wait to vote him out?

I'd like to think that's true, but I'm not sold on it. More like just sick of the high-maintenance.

 

[JohnShadows]

- Then there are the people that are vocally against him, get in the voting booth and... chicken out. Their 401K is doing OK today, so why vote against that?

If there is one thing I've learned in my short time on Earth, its that people will talk shit all day long but ask for even the slightest bit of skin in the game and all that bravado crumbles.

Yes, I think that's an underestimated dynamic as well. That's why Sanders will be such a tough sell.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

More like just sick of the high-maintenance.

Interesting way to spell 'Complete collapse of internal and international institutions'.

 

[darkswordsman17]

Sadly at this point (early-mid Feb 2020) I think its too close to tell. I'm seeing some of the usuals start their song and dance building their justification for why they just had to vote for Turmp because they couldn't vote Democrat just like last time. I think there's very healthy anti-Turmp sentiment, that outstrips his base support easily. But there's the full of shit idiot voters and there's enough of them that could be swayed by something literally the day of voting that I wouldn't feel confident calling it either way.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Yes, I think that's an underestimated dynamic as well. That's why Sanders will be such a tough sell.

People with skin in the game know how insanely expensive health insurance and medicine is.

 

[BoomerD]

As much as it disgusts me, I don't think there's a snowball's chance in hell of any of the Dem candidates beating King Donnie this election...or the next...

Out of all the folks running as Democrats, I like Bloomberg a bit more than any of the others...but I don't think he has a chance either.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

As much as it disgusts me, I don't think there's a snowball's chance in hell of any of the Dem candidates beating King Donnie this election...or the next...

Why? Trump's the only one even remotely interested in cutting social programs, he's right up your alley.

So...gone from living off the grid to living on the dole. I'm sure the Indiana taxpayers are thrilled.

 

[JohnShadows]

People with skin in the game know how insanely expensive health insurance and medicine is.

I know, and I support Medicare for all. The only thing holding back single-payer is the innumeracy of the American public. But that's not likely to change soon. The media, the political establishment, and the health insurance companies will close ranks to fight that tooth-and-nail.

 

[zinfamous]

Not even a little surprising.
Here in CA we have vote harvesting, the dems are pretty good at it, the republicans have been slow on the uptake.

To be clear, I have no issue with buying votes, it's a time honored tradition. My issues come into play when I have to write a check for that purpose. As an example, my piece of forgiving student loan debt would be about $8k (four thousand each for the wife and I), I have to question why I should be on the hook for that.

or, one could just reduce military spending and all the other GOp boondoggles that do nothing beyond making everyone poorer, and you wouldn't be on the hook for anything.

The money is already there. It always has been. I don't understand this conservative belief that new money has to be created to spend it on--vastly cheaper things--than what we already spend it on.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

or, one could just reduce military spending and all the other GOp boondoggles that do nothing beyond making everyone poorer, and you wouldn't be on the hook for anything.

The money is already there. It always has been. I don't understand this conservative belief that new money has to be created to spend it on--vastly cheaper things--than what we already spend it on.

Friendly reminder: Trump's tax cut is definitely going to cost 1.5T over the next 10 years, and if the tax cuts for corporations stay, that'll increase to 2.3T.

What Are the Costs of the Trump Tax Cuts to You?

The Tax Cut and Jobs Act promised to add $1.8 trillion in revenue. Instead, it could add $2.3 trillion to the debt.

www.thebalance.com

 

[cytg111]

I predict that of 100 ballots cast 107 of them will be in favor of Trump.

 

[JSt0rm]

trump wins with russian assistance. Chuds think its a good thing.

 

[Zorba]

Not even a little surprising.
Here in CA we have vote harvesting, the dems are pretty good at it, the republicans have been slow on the uptake.

To be clear, I have no issue with buying votes, it's a time honored tradition. My issues come into play when I have to write a check for that purpose. As an example, my piece of forgiving student loan debt would be about $8k (four thousand each for the wife and I), I have to question why I should be on the hook for that.

Why should I be on the hook for the wars fight so you could put cheap gas in your truck? Why should I have to pay to subsidize the roads you drive on, because republicans buy your vote with way too low gas tax? Student loans are out of control in part due to states cutting higher education funding so they could buy republican votes with lower taxes.

You work in a pretty subsided industry to be throwing stones, just you don't see benefits to yourself buying votes.

 

[sportage]

THE 2020 OUTCOME ???
Well, democrats have already made their bed and now must lie in it.

Bernie will be only red meat for Donald Trump. The key words for 2020 and for Bernie's defeat, SOCIALISM HEART-ATTACK.

Evangelicals will sacrifice Buttigieg to the god of Trump. Evangelicals will say, Gay in the Whitehouse, Gay sex in the Lincoln room, Gay pornography in the oral office, their will misquote the bible, compare the fall of Rome. All that Trump need do is sit back and let his loyal Evangelicals literally destroy Pete Buttigieg by spreading mass homophobia throughout the country. Do not for one second doubt Evangelicals ability and willingness to destroy Pete Buttigieg. By the time Evangelicals have finished with Pete, no one will pay attention to Pete's message or to his vision for America. We will see an evil from Evangelicals that no demon could ever compete with.

As for all of the others in the race, they also have no chance. Democrats will let themselves down with inner division and inability to unite. Look at it this way.... Trump republicans are easily united because they have but one sector to unite, hate.
Democrats have many sectors, Hispanics, Blacks, Whites, Women, Men, so many that in the end must unite into one. That is a steep hill to climb.

If one single candidate can survive in the end and come close to uniting the party, winning against Trump will be an uphill race. Any incumbent president has a huge advantage out of the gate, add to that Trump as the master of the lie. And I wonder... can CNN or MSNBC even compete with an government extension of this Trump administration, Fox News?

I'm a realist and lets face it, the likelihood of Donald Trump turning the states red from shore to shore is more likely than not. Just look at the power Donald Trump has now achieved through corruption and with others assisting in that corruption.
Democrats are not up against Donald Trump, democrats are up against a corrupt US senate, an corrupt department of justice, a swamp of lawbreakers and thieves. HOW THE HELL can any democratic candidate or party compete with that? A party playing by the rules up against another party that breaks all the rules? The chances are bleak for the democratic party in the fall.
Democrats had better focus on taking the senate, retaining the house, and giving Donald Trump hell during his second term. To screw Trump and obstruct Trump at every turn. Make life absolutely hell on earth for Donald Trump and his second term. Democrats, absolutely re-impeach Donald Trump on new grounds should democrats remain the house.
This is about our only chance of protecting the nation and limiting the damage during a Trump second term. To come out on the other side as a nation still intact and still free.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

I’m having deja vu with this thread

Ya think?


It's like nobody checks the board before they post: https://forums.anandtech.com/thread...l-november-20-prognostication-thread.2576638/

 

[HomerJS]

Have no idea who is going to win but I do know it will be a bloodbath.

Results will tell us who we as as a country

 

[dank69]

Nothing. Even if Trump loses the Dem President won't have the balls to prosecute that piece of shit and since the Dems can't get to 60 in the Senate anyway, nothing will change except for Executive orders and maybe start repairing foreign relations a bit before America votes to cock it all up again in 4 or 8 years.

 

[cliftonite]

Trump

 

[BoomerD]

Nothing. Even if Trump loses the Dem President won't have the balls to prosecute that piece of shit and since the Dems can't get to 60 in the Senate anyway, nothing will change except for Executive orders and maybe start repairing foreign relations a bit before America votes to cock it all up again in 4 or 8 years.

The only real hope of seeing Trump prosecuted in New York state...if they have enough evidence of him violating state laws.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I’m very confident we will have a second term Trump.

 

[Indus]

Why do you make these stupid topics?

It comes down to voter suppression in 7 states: WI, MI, PA, GA, NC, FL and AZ.

If enough people are kept off the votes and have to file provisional ballots which are then thrown in the trash bin.. Trump wins.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

I think the better questions this year is who will help more down ticket. Who can help the Democrats take control of the Senate or simply retain control in the House? Is that possible with Bernie? Is it more likely with Biden? Klobuchar?