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Discussion What are the odds?

What odds to you give for the Epstein files being released by April 1, 2026?

  • 0%

    Votes: 12 54.5%
  • 10%

    Votes: 2 9.1%
  • 20%

    Votes: 2 9.1%
  • 30%

    Votes: 1 4.5%
  • 40%

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 50%

    Votes: 1 4.5%
  • 60%

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 70%

    Votes: 2 9.1%
  • 80%

    Votes: 1 4.5%
  • 90%+

    Votes: 1 4.5%

  • Total voters
    22

MtnMan

Diamond Member
What odds do you give that we will ever see the Epstein files before April 1, 2026?

Given the desperation that Trump is demonstrating and the fact he has 100% control of every cabinet office, and still control of a majority of republicans in the house and senate, he will stop and nothing to prevent releasing the files, including their destruction.

Second question, *_IF_* the files are released, will it result in Trump's impeachment, or even resignation?
 
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0%

President can veto it can he not?
First, it has to pass the Senate with 60%, then get Trumps signature.

I chose 20% probably more out of hope that there will be a veto proof majority... being as optimistic as I can muster.

Fuck, I may have to revise my estimate downwards.
 
I'm saying they never will be released unredacted. The reason they are frantically trying to stop release of the files is that the DOJ has not finished the job of removing every single trace of Trump from them. It’s possible he’s so thoroughly tied up in it that he can’t be removed from them. “Epstein met Virginia Giuffre at [REDACTED]’s Palm Beach estate [REDACTED] isn’t going to fool anyone. It’s now clear that he was visiting Epstein and was in communication with him much later than Trump claims (Thanksgiving dinner 2017) and we’re past the point where that can be plausibly denied.

If they can keep delaying until the files are effectively cleaned, Trump can then release them himself and say “fine, here they are, and scream "TOTAL EXONERATION!”. But if they are released before the job is done, most of his hardcore supporters won’t believe anything that was missed in the cleanup and will cry “fake news!
 
I'm in the 20% camp, and assume they will have been made useless if they are released. The way things have been going, I give 0% that anything comes of it regardless; they are already working to normalize the behavior.
 
I'm saying they never will be released unredacted. The reason they are frantically trying to stop release of the files is that the DOJ has not finished the job of removing every single trace of Trump from them. It’s possible he’s so thoroughly tied up in it that he can’t be removed from them. “Epstein met Virginia Giuffre at [REDACTED]’s Palm Beach estate [REDACTED] isn’t going to fool anyone. It’s now clear that he was visiting Epstein and was in communication with him much later than Trump claims (Thanksgiving dinner 2017) and we’re past the point where that can be plausibly denied.

If they can keep delaying until the files are effectively cleaned, Trump can then release them himself and say “fine, here they are, and scream "TOTAL EXONERATION!”. But if they are released before the job is done, most of his hardcore supporters won’t believe anything that was missed in the cleanup and will cry “fake news!
The victims names should be redacted.
 
I voted 70%...however, I do believe that whatever is released will have been cleaned and sanitized to the point that nothing points to King Donnie in a negative way...and maybe a few incriminating emails and such will have been planted to be used against Clinton and other influential Democrats and backers. The released files will definitely not resemble the actual files.
 
The odds of the 4-1 April Fools Day release and impeachment of Trump depends on whether or not a bonafide legit copy of the files exists that Trump and Bondi know about yet can't lay their sticky bloodied fingers on it.

And who's to say whether or not the files that Bondi will release are the actual Epstein files we all want to know about? There's absolutely nothing I can lay my trust in when it comes to Trump and his legions of sycophant lackeys, lawyers and oligarch enablers that will do anything, and allow me to reiterate ANYTHING, to keep him in office.
 
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Let's assume the House passes a bill to release the files.

You'd need 13 Republican Senators to vote for cloture, and then 4 Republicans to vote for that bill, to send it to Trump to sign.

Where it will obviously be vetoed.

After Trump vetoes the bill, you'd need:

Senate
1. 20 decent human beings currently elected as Republicans in the Senate voting to override the veto, which isn't something that exists in reality.
or
2. quorum shenanigans where 47 Democrats and 4 Republicans create a quorum and vote to override the veto with 49 Republicans not showing up to vote at all

AND

House
75 or more Republicans in the House voting in favor of the veto override.

I don't think that there are 13 decent Republican Senators as of now who would vote for cloture, never mind 49 decent Republican Senators who would just sit at home knowing they could stop the veto override through quorum shenanigans.

Unless some truly damning evidence comes to light that forces 13-to-20 Republican Senators to pretend to have integrity in order to save their own jobs.
 
It's a little surprising that Johnson let the committee release a trove of somewhat damning emails. It's like he was trying to throw up a smoke screen of "releasing some files" so more Republicans didn't sign onto the discharge petition to release them all, but it instead had the opposite effect of making people ask "what the hell else is in there?"
 
I took 20% just because I feel like it's gonna need a veto override. And that's about the % chance I give it that there are enough Rs in the senate that will eventually succumb to the political pressures of not being able to carry water for 13/14 yr olds getting fucked by creepy old men.
 
It's a little surprising that Johnson let the committee release a trove of somewhat damning emails. It's like he was trying to throw up a smoke screen of "releasing some files" so more Republicans didn't sign onto the discharge petition to release them all, but it instead had the opposite effect of making people ask "what the hell else is in there?"

Yeah, Weird ... This isn’t even a “leak”. These emails came directly from the House Oversight Committee and were released by its Republican majority.

Looks like James Comer is now part of the "Vast Left-Wing Conspiracy"?
 
The devil had one job, to turn the notion of forgiveness of away from the concept of guilt as a rod of self mortification and self contempt, into its real purpose, redemption, the return of the original self that could experience the natural joy of being. The empty self knows only the joys of addiction to sin, the cycle of repetition that one can endlessly enjoy the sinning and being forgiven over and over again.

From a church that once understood its real purpose we have a business where sinners can congregate to this forgiveness while indulging in it. One of the coins of transaction is young boys and girls.
 
The text below is an AI response to my question of "when the house passes a bill when must the senate vote on it?"

Seems to be that when they feel like it, or can just let it die.

Yea, I'm changing from 20% to 10% (still trying to be optimistic.)

There is no set deadline for when the Senate must vote on a bill passed by the House of Representatives. After the House passes a bill, it is sent to the Senate where it is assigned to a committee for study, and the Senate leadership determines when or if the bill will be brought to the floor for debate and a vote. The Senate may choose to take up the bill immediately, amend it, or not act on it at all.
The timing of Senate action depends on legislative priorities, scheduling by the Majority Leader, so I guess Thune will be summoned to the "situation room" early next week.
 
The text below is an AI response to my question of "when the house passes a bill when must the senate vote on it?"

Seems to be that when they feel like it, or can just let it die.

Yea, I'm changing from 20% to 10% (still trying to be optimistic.)


The timing of Senate action depends on legislative priorities, scheduling by the Majority Leader, so I guess Thune will be summoned to the "situation room" early next week.
Wouldn’t anyone’s prediction of odds not based on mathematical probabilities always come down to something like a desire to be optimistic, some inner motivation that determines one’s mood and if the origin of one’s mood were unconsciously determine and out of conscious control any opinion on any one day could be blown externally thither and yon rendering any point of the exercise objectively useless.

Shouldn’t he real value of such speculations not so much the accuracy of result but a sharing of personal feelings. I understand how the wish to be optimistic and the fear reality may let you down create an internal uneasiness that is offensive to a high value moral aim, hope for a positive world. Thank you.
 
One of the schemes I thought Trump would use to prevent the release of the files was for it to die in the Senate if they Thune just left it collecting dust in his in box. Guess the Senate didn't want to own that pile of shit, so they passed it quickly.

Now it is supposed to be on Trump's desk for his signature, and they have gone radio silent and kicked all the press out of the WH.

Karma has been a real gut punch, but he will likely sign it...

Next is for Bondi to slow walk it, and come up with reason after reason that they can't be released.

I'm still sticking with my 10% odds they will be released.
 
If they're released at all they'll be so heavily redacted as to be useless.

Since redacted / modified / lobotomized files are not the real Epstein files - I voted 10%.
 
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