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West Coasters-why the Coivd-19 rise in CA, OR & WA again?

Thump553

Thump553

Lifer
I never have seen this addressed in any credible manner in the media. My impression of CA and WA is that they initially addressed the pandemic early and effectively, but now (esp CA) Covid-19 is rapidly rising again despite the state governments having done everything reasonably well.

As a CT resident I'm worried. We were slammed fairly hard the first time around but are in a nice decline now. People are getting out a lot more now, sit down restaurants just reopened on a limited capacity basis, not sure on the bar status. Mask usage is pretty good, especially inside stores, etc. Mask usage outside on the streets is spotty, but I can avoid congested areas.

The boom in Covid-19 in the south and west is understandable-they opened too early and too much of the population is not taking precautions. This is understandable to a degree-being locked down for two+ months when your state has a few dozen cases at most must be really frustrating. But CA and WA really concern me as it makes it seem like a return of epidemic levels here is more or less inevitable.

Any thoughts?
 
Thump553 said:
I never have seen this addressed in any credible manner in the media. My impression of CA and WA is that they initially addressed the pandemic early and effectively, but now (esp CA) Covid-19 is rapidly rising again despite the state governments having done everything reasonably well.

As a CT resident I'm worried. We were slammed fairly hard the first time around but are in a nice decline now. People are getting out a lot more now, sit down restaurants just reopened on a limited capacity basis, not sure on the bar status. Mask usage is pretty good, especially inside stores, etc. Mask usage outside on the streets is spotty, but I can avoid congested areas.

The boom in Covid-19 in the south and west is understandable-they opened too early and too much of the population is not taking precautions. This is understandable to a degree-being locked down for two+ months when your state has a few dozen cases at most must be really frustrating. But CA and WA really concern me as it makes it seem like a return of epidemic levels here is more or less inevitable.

Any thoughts?
Click to expand...

There isn't a vaccine or anything approaching herd immunity. Any behavior that is less safe than what came before is going to increase infections. We haven't gotten a robust testing / contract tracing / quarantine system in place, so any planned reopening at this point should be seen as acceptance of increase in cases / deaths as a consequence. The problem that I've had with any reopening since shutdown is not judging it good or bad. There is good and bad. The problem is defining goals and having those expectations be reasonable. I don't know what states are expecting or hoping to achieve in their choices.
 
I think the rise in oregon has been pretty meager overall. The state had been pretty low at about 20 cases per day and the big spike was to 100-200 cases for about a week. Most of the cases are being linked to the openings of highly dense worksites (factories and plants) here, though the re-opening of the state in general hasn't helped. There is also a bit of testing bias as tests are just more available now than they were 2 months ago so you're picking up more asymptomatic cases as well. 1 month ago the only people who could get tests reliably are people who are highly symptomatic AND had risk factors for dying or being hospitalized or were in the hospital sick from COVID.

I think when you're following these issues the thing to really pay attention to are: hospitalizations and deaths. Those are hard numbers that reflect the real effect of COVID on society and they are independent of the testing bias that exists due to the greater availability of tests (all hospitalized patients were tested in the past and are still being tested). In oregon, there has been no significant change in hospitalizations or deaths: in fact the numbers have been going down with many many days of zero deaths.
 
Thump553 said:
I never have seen this addressed in any credible manner in the media. My impression of CA and WA is that they initially addressed the pandemic early and effectively, but now (esp CA) Covid-19 is rapidly rising again despite the state governments having done everything reasonably well.

As a CT resident I'm worried. We were slammed fairly hard the first time around but are in a nice decline now. People are getting out a lot more now, sit down restaurants just reopened on a limited capacity basis, not sure on the bar status. Mask usage is pretty good, especially inside stores, etc. Mask usage outside on the streets is spotty, but I can avoid congested areas.

The boom in Covid-19 in the south and west is understandable-they opened too early and too much of the population is not taking precautions. This is understandable to a degree-being locked down for two+ months when your state has a few dozen cases at most must be really frustrating. But CA and WA really concern me as it makes it seem like a return of epidemic levels here is more or less inevitable.

Any thoughts?
Click to expand...

It's a function of re-opening the economy while trying to keep the hospitalization rate at a manageable level. We're all flirting with disaster.
 
Glossing over the political aspects of the pandemic, I'd go with people are people no matter their political affiliation. What separates some from the others is their ability to ignore the seriousness of the pandemic in favor of sympathizing with their chosen leader who prefers to look at mitigating the effects of the pandemic by wishfully thinking it away.
 
I live in WA. Other than places like Seattle, the state tends to be fairly conservative...lots of farmers...they're resisting the covid restrictions and complain about everything being done to try to keep people safe.
I get wanting to work and make money...but wear a fucking mask...for your sake and mine.
Unfortunately, people have gotten tired of "having their freedom to do whatever they want" trampled by that librul governor...the new "mandatory mask in public" laws start today...but sheriff departments and police departments all over the state have said they won't enforce them.
 
In the CA bay area, mask compliance is almost total. 100% in stores, 85% outdoors. I hear most of the increase in infections is in SoCal.
 
BoomerD said:
I live in WA. Other than places like Seattle, the state tends to be fairly conservative...lots of farmers...they're resisting the covid restrictions and complain about everything being done to try to keep people safe.
I get wanting to work and make money...but wear a fucking mask...for your sake and mine.
Unfortunately, people have gotten tired of "having their freedom to do whatever they want" trampled by that librul governor...the new "mandatory mask in public" laws start today...but sheriff departments and police departments all over the state have said they won't enforce them.
Click to expand...
Most of the dramatic increase is happening in the Yakima area. Lot of food processing/packing, (cherry season wrapping up) prep for orchards, and so on.
 
woolfe9998 said:
In the CA bay area, mask compliance is almost total. 100% in stores, 85% outdoors. I hear most of the increase in infections is in SoCal.
Click to expand...


There is a case/hospitalization increase in the Bay Area but from what I read it's mostly attributed to a situation at San Quentin where the state DOC transferred infected prisoners (doh) from Southern California and caused an outbreak.
 
Sunburn74 said:
I think the rise in oregon has been pretty meager overall. The state had been pretty low at about 20 cases per day and the big spike was to 100-200 cases for about a week. Most of the cases are being linked to the openings of highly dense worksites (factories and plants) here, though the re-opening of the state in general hasn't helped. There is also a bit of testing bias as tests are just more available now than they were 2 months ago so you're picking up more asymptomatic cases as well. 1 month ago the only people who could get tests reliably are people who are highly symptomatic AND had risk factors for dying or being hospitalized or were in the hospital sick from COVID.

I think when you're following these issues the thing to really pay attention to are: hospitalizations and deaths. Those are hard numbers that reflect the real effect of COVID on society and they are independent of the testing bias that exists due to the greater availability of tests (all hospitalized patients were tested in the past and are still being tested). In oregon, there has been no significant change in hospitalizations or deaths: in fact the numbers have been going down with many many days of zero deaths.
Click to expand...
In Oregon, a big part of the spike came from a church that was ignoring the state's limits on gathering sizes. Led to 200 cases in 2 days in a county with around 25k people.
 
SoCal has always been kind of high. I think the increase is mostly due to people just going crazy with the quarantine and going out more.
 
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