This is the part that seems like it must be pure conjecture. If there is concrete evidence on which to base your assertion, please correct me, though. That's why I think it's not so easy to say, not without actual testing.
Well threaded applications, by definition, can "add cores" together to get their relative computing power, so in these cases you will see 90+% of the quad core capability from a 2C/4T CPU that has a 50% speed advantage. Even games that take advantage of many threads favor 2 more heavily, so there is a bit of an x-factor. The worse a game handles multiple cores the more advantage a 4T CPU that more heavily weights 2 cores will fare.
Of course there will always be specific cases of software that is better on one or the other, but if having to make a decision based on the average performance, I'd pick the 2C/4T. The advantage of 3 GHz vs. 2 GHz in the games that still aren't well threaded (+50%) far outweighs the ~10% advantage the quad will have in games that are well threaded. Since games MUST design around a lowest common denominator CPU, you also see well threaded games being a little less demanding on the CPU in general to get decent frame rates (minimums in the 40+ range).
It's a matter of what's the better balanced, and 2C/4T is more balanced than 4C / 4T.... when 2C/4T is given a 50% speed advantage. The worse an application handles threading, the more it will benefit a 2C/4T CPU.
Now in the real world, where it's not a 50% speed advantage for the 2C/4T, sure... the water is a LOT more muddied, but I think 50% speed advantage is enough to bring it into a clear lead.
If you ask me, if i3s were still OCable and in the $130 range, we'd see MANY gamers using 2C4T Ivy and Haswells at 4.5+GHz and handling modern gaming just fine. There is a bit of a threshold effect to games... there comes a point where a CPU does get "good enough" to be virtually perfect and I think an Ivy or Haswell 2C/4T at slightly higher than typical quad OCs (due to additional thermal margin) would reach that plateau for all but the least budget conscious gamers.