We are 19 days past FINANCIAL DOOMSDAY

DomS

Banned
Jul 15, 2008
1,678
0
0

Perry404's original post

So we're about 2 weeks past FINANCIAL DOOMSDAY 2k8...and the economy is still getting worse. He's looking oddly prescient if not a little conservative given the circumstances.
 

brxndxn

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2001
8,475
0
76
Originally posted by: DomS

Perry404's original post

So we're about 2 weeks past FINANCIAL DOOMSDAY 2k8...and the economy is still getting worse. He's looking oddly prescient if not a little conservative given the circumstances.

I predict DOOM with a side of GLOOM! Stock up on cheer because there won't be any for years!!!

This forecast: crappy
Next forecast: crappier

Don't do anything because everything is the wrong thing to do!
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Self-fulfilling prophecy. The system really isn't that horrible. The biggest problem is the cyclical nature of write-downs driven by liquidity premiums.

I wouldn't really call this "doomsday" either.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
I predict we are within 100 days of an abrupt economic rebound.
 

SickBeast

Lifer
Jul 21, 2000
14,377
19
81
The thing is, money is just money.

Resources are what is important, and this "crisis" hasn't changed their status.

Our current situation is impossible to predict, as the guys who run the hedge funds collude and control the markets to a large extent. They've really ruined things for the individual investor IMO.

There was a guy on the radio over the weekend here in Ontario who was saying that everyone should sell all of their paper assets, that they would de-value substantially in the near future.

He said that something bad would definitely come out of the big-3 auto mess, and that it's better to sell now, even at a loss, so that you can play scavenger in a few months once one of the big-3 goes broke.

I personally would love to buy a few index funds in a couple of months, if the markets continue to go down.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: DomS
Originally posted by: Vic
I predict we are within 100 days of an abrupt economic rebound.

I predicted you'd make that prediction
I predicted your response, that I would not write this post until after the fact, thus drawing concern from you about my prescience, and also that you would, after finishing reading this, be not just questioning of it but in complete awe that I wrote it AND finally that you think I'm just enjoying to watch myself type.

 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,726
54,731
136
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: DomS
Originally posted by: Vic
I predict we are within 100 days of an abrupt economic rebound.

I predicted you'd make that prediction
I predicted your response, that I would not write this post until after the fact, thus drawing concern from you about my prescience, and also that you would, after finishing reading this, be not just questioning of it but in complete awe that I wrote it AND finally that you think I'm just enjoying to watch myself type.

A quick note about your signature. I'm not sure how you can say that your prediction for the bailout has come true. Not only has less than half of it been disbursed, but the effects of it will be hard to measure for quite awhile.
 

alchemize

Lifer
Mar 24, 2000
11,486
0
0
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: DomS
Originally posted by: Vic
I predict we are within 100 days of an abrupt economic rebound.

I predicted you'd make that prediction
I predicted your response, that I would not write this post until after the fact, thus drawing concern from you about my prescience, and also that you would, after finishing reading this, be not just questioning of it but in complete awe that I wrote it AND finally that you think I'm just enjoying to watch myself type.

A quick note about your signature. I'm not sure how you can say that your prediction for the bailout has come true. Not only has less than half of it been disbursed, but the effects of it will be hard to measure for quite awhile.
He's been hanging around Dave too much, it is starting to rub off. I predicted this would happen to him.

 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: DomS
Originally posted by: Vic
I predict we are within 100 days of an abrupt economic rebound.

I predicted you'd make that prediction
I predicted your response, that I would not write this post until after the fact, thus drawing concern from you about my prescience, and also that you would, after finishing reading this, be not just questioning of it but in complete awe that I wrote it AND finally that you think I'm just enjoying to watch myself type.

A quick note about your signature. I'm not sure how you can say that your prediction for the bailout has come true. Not only has less than half of it been disbursed, but the effects of it will be hard to measure for quite awhile.
Actually, the interesting thing about it is that an ROI is somewhat impossible if it's not even directly invested, as promised; I understand that hundreds of B has already been put into non-mortgage backed securities. In regard to the scale of it, the gov is throwing money hand over fist in other ways and already has well above the $700B in additional liabilities that it didn't have months ago. Certainly a grander ROI like "well the economy is down only 1% instead of 10%" are impossible to convincingly attribute to the bailout or not, so I've to be strict with its performance rating.

 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: alchemize
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: DomS
Originally posted by: Vic
I predict we are within 100 days of an abrupt economic rebound.

I predicted you'd make that prediction
I predicted your response, that I would not write this post until after the fact, thus drawing concern from you about my prescience, and also that you would, after finishing reading this, be not just questioning of it but in complete awe that I wrote it AND finally that you think I'm just enjoying to watch myself type.

A quick note about your signature. I'm not sure how you can say that your prediction for the bailout has come true. Not only has less than half of it been disbursed, but the effects of it will be hard to measure for quite awhile.
He's been hanging around Dave too much, it is starting to rub off. I predicted this would happen to him.
I knew you'd say that.

 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,726
54,731
136
Originally posted by: JS80
lol thread = win

Speaking of signatures, I really hope Mitt Romney and Jindal run in 2012 too as they will be owned on an epic scale. (Hint: Mitt Romney is an awful, awful candidate.)
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: JS80
lol thread = win

Speaking of signatures, I really hope Mitt Romney and Jindal run in 2012 too as they will be owned on an epic scale. (Hint: Mitt Romney is an awful, awful candidate.)

Marked.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,726
54,731
136
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: eskimospy
A quick note about your signature. I'm not sure how you can say that your prediction for the bailout has come true. Not only has less than half of it been disbursed, but the effects of it will be hard to measure for quite awhile.
Actually, the interesting thing about it is that an ROI is somewhat impossible if it's not even directly invested, as promised; I understand that hundreds of B has already been put into non-mortgage backed securities. In regard to the scale of it, the gov is throwing money hand over fist in other ways and already has well above the $700B in additional liabilities that it didn't have months ago. Certainly a grander ROI like "well the economy is down only 1% instead of 10%" are impossible to convincingly attribute to the bailout or not, so I've to be strict with its performance rating.

Well the government is throwing money at things in other ways, but I don't think anyone ever claimed that it wouldn't be... so that was always a given. I also don't see how you can make an ROI determination within just a few months. Shouldn't that be made when the government cashes out whatever stakes it has in these companies, Chrysler style?

I mean you could turn out to be 100% correct with your prediction in the future, I just don't see how you can make that determination now.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: eskimospy
A quick note about your signature. I'm not sure how you can say that your prediction for the bailout has come true. Not only has less than half of it been disbursed, but the effects of it will be hard to measure for quite awhile.
Actually, the interesting thing about it is that an ROI is somewhat impossible if it's not even directly invested, as promised; I understand that hundreds of B has already been put into non-mortgage backed securities. In regard to the scale of it, the gov is throwing money hand over fist in other ways and already has well above the $700B in additional liabilities that it didn't have months ago. Certainly a grander ROI like "well the economy is down only 1% instead of 10%" are impossible to convincingly attribute to the bailout or not, so I've to be strict with its performance rating.

Well the government is throwing money at things in other ways, but I don't think anyone ever claimed that it wouldn't be... so that was always a given. I also don't see how you can make an ROI determination within just a few months. Shouldn't that be made when the government cashes out whatever stakes it has in these companies, Chrysler style?

I mean you could turn out to be 100% correct with your prediction in the future, I just don't see how you can make that determination now.
Can I keep it as an I WIN on the "and/or"?